NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, October 11th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Home team won 7 of last 8 New Jersey-Toronto games; Devils lost last three visits here, with two of those losses in SO’s. Last four series games went over total. New Jersey won its first two games 4-1/6-2 (over 1-0-1), with a road win in Buffalo. Maple Leafs scored 19 goals in winning their first three games (over 3-0), with two of those wins at home.
Penguins are 5-3 in last eight games with Washington; road teams won 5 of last 7 series games. Pittsburgh won 3 of last 4 visits here. Over is 6-4 in last ten series games. Penguins lost 2 of first 3 games (over 2-1), pitching shutout in last game after allowing 15 goals in first 2 games. Caps won 2 of first 3 games (over 3-0), beating Montreal 6-1 in their only home game.
Road team in 9-1 in last 10 Boston-Colorado games; Avalanche beat Bruins 4-0 in Boston Monday, but Boston won 3 of last 4 visits to Denver. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games. Bruins split couple home games (over 1-1) to open the season. Colorado opened season with a 2-1 road trip (over 1-1-1)— this is their home opener.
Islanders won their last four games with Anaheim, with last two in SO/OT; under is 4-1-1 in last six series games. New York won last three games in the Pond. Islanders lost 2 of first 3 games, losing 5-0 at Columbus in their only road game. Ducks lost 2 of first 3 games, all at home; they scored total of 2 goals in losing last two games (under 2-1).
Calgary won 3 of its last 4 games with the Kings; under is 6-2-2 in last ten series games. Flames lost 3 of last 4 visits to Staples Center- they ended a 20+-game losing skid in Anaheim Monday night,
Armadillosports.com
NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com
It was an emotional night in Las Vegas as the team and city showed tremendous respect for the victims and heroes involved in the tragedy that affected the entire nation. I’ve never been more okay with losing a bet as some things are just bigger than sports. Vegas has been a great early story for not only the NHL but for the city of Las Vegas and it’s great to see the people rally around a common cause. The Golden Knights also became the first expansion team in NHL history to begin the season 3-0. Something else.
Elsewhere, the Cardiac Canes were at it again as it looked like we were about to get Bobrovsky’ed until Jeff Skinner picked off a clearing attempt and sniped a tying goal with just 1:25 left in regulation. Carolina had a powerplay in overtime that went unrewarded then Aho fanned on a 3-on-1 pass which should have been buried in the back of the open net, instead resulting in a breakaway the other way for rookie Sonny Milano that beat Darling. Heartbreaker.
Three-on-three overtime is the most exciting thing in all of sports but it’s also the cruelest as it’s basically a coin flip situation usually decided by a lot of luck. Once the game gets past regulation all bets are off and we hope to just breakeven in those events over the course of the season.
It had been a good start to the season but last night’s 0-2 quickly reminds you that you can’t win every night. Let’s get back on the horse and find a couple winners for tonight.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Projected Goaltenders
New Jersey – Corey Schneider (confirmed)
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (confirmed)
Injury Report
New Jersey – Zajac (out), Boyle (out), Stafford (doubtful), Palmieri (questionable)
Toronto – Carrick (out)
Two hot teams square off in Toronto tonight and for New Jersey it will be their biggest test yet after relatively easy wins against Colorado and Buffalo. Toronto has just steamrolled opponents to this point and are doing it with a balanced team effort.
Both these teams are near the top of the league in early puck possession metrics and while the Devils powerplay is off to a hot start, they’re also doing it 5v5. It will be interesting to see how they stack up against a real contender here. They’ve a confident group after going 5-1-1 in the preseason and now 2-0 to begin the regular season. Cory Schneider has looked like his old self and rookie Nico Hischier is making an impact. I would temper your expectations though as we saw a similar story last year with Colorado as they also won their first two games after a 6-0-0 preseason and we know how that ended for them.
Kyle Palmieri is questionable for tonight. He was a full go in Tuesday’s practice but needs to show them he’s fine again in today’s morning skate. Drew Stafford is unlikely to play after missing yesterday’s practice. Connor Carrick is out for the Leafs with an upper-body injury. My line above is with Palmieri in the lineup but if he’s out it likely doesn’t change our betting options here. I would need the line to drop to -170 before I would bet on Toronto.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray (likely)
Washington – Braden Holtby (probable)
Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Cole (out), Hornqvist (questionable)
Washington – no significant injuries
The Pittsburgh Penguins are fresh off their trip to the White House and can get back to more of a regular schedule. They had a tough start with three games in four nights all against Central division teams.
Defenseman Ian Cole will be out tonight after getting hit in the mouth by a puck. Chad Ruhwedel will slot in for him. Patric Hornqvist took part in Monday’s practice and was in a regular jersey for the first time (instead of a no-contact one). He’s getting close to a return but they’re see how he does this morning before making a decision. When he does return it sounds like he’s going to start on the third line and Jake Guentzel will also keep his spot on the top powerplay unit (for all you DFSers out there).
Both of these teams have struggled at 5v5 early on but it’s the Capitals defense who have looked worse for wear. The third pair of Taylor Chorney and Aaron Ness has been a real weakness and Trotz doesn’t seem to want to put them on the ice a lot. What that has resulted in is a lot of high ice-times for the top-four and it’s led to some late game fatigue, including a collapse last game against Tampa Bay.
The Penguins are on the front end of a back-to-back tonight so not sure how the goaltending will be split but I would guess Murray tonight and possibly Niemi tomorrow in Tampa. Holtby should be in net for Washington after Grubauer played last game.
There’s a smidge of value on Pittsburgh at the current number but not quite enough to warrant a bet. That would change if Hornqvist is good to go, so this could be a play I add on Twitter later.
BOSTON BRUINS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE
Projected Goaltenders
Boston – Tuukka Rask (confirmed)
Colorado – Semyon Varlamov/Jonathan Bernier (unknown)
Injury Report
Boston – Backes (out), Bergeron (out)
Colorado – no significant injuries
The Colorado Avalanche still haven’t allowed an even-strength goal through three games now which is hard to believe. It’s hard to believe because the team has looked pretty terrible on the defensive end but the goaltending has been unreal between Varlamov (two games) and Bernier (one game). Taking a quick look at their possession metrics and you see the Avs are only 21st in the league with a 46.71 CorsiFor% (adjusted 5v5) and their expected goals for percentage is at just a 47.07 xGF%. It’s pretty early for me to be looking at the advanced metrics to make judgements on this season (usually around the 20-game mark I will begin incorporating this year’s stats) but I’ve watched two of their three games and their struggles have been pretty clear. Colorado could be on the wrong side of a lopsided blowout here soon, I just hope it’s a game where we get enough value to bet.
The Bruins are still missing Patrice Bergeron who will be out again tonight. They can’t find anyone to effectively fill his role on the top line as Ryan Spooner has looked like last year’s regression may not have been just poor luck and will be bumped down the lineup for tonight as Riley Nash will try his luck as the number one center.
Cassidy put the Bruins through an extra rigorous practice session yesterday and it sounded like the players got the message just from reading a beat writer’s comments. This is the first of a three game road trip for the Bruins and they talked about how they needed some bonding time. These early season road trips are perfect for that.
Tuukka Rask will start for Boston again. Backup Anton Khudobin is expected to get his first start this weekend. I’m not sure if it will be Varlamov or Bernier for the Avs.
I like Boston in this one but the current line isn’t offering any value. If some money comes in on Colorado this morning I’ll look to fire back on Boston. I would need it to drop to -125 so if someone would like to go ahead and steam Colorado for me that’d be great!
NY ISLANDERS @ ANAHEIM DUCKS
Projected Goaltenders
NY Islanders – Jaroslav Halak (confirmed)
Anaheim – John Gibson (likely)
Injury Report
NY Islanders – no significant injuries
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Eaves (out), Lindholm (out), Vatanen (out), Ritchie (questionable), Kase (questionable)
The Islanders begin a three game trek through California tonight and will continue the rotating of goaltenders Greiss and Halak. Tonight it will be Halak’s turn. He’s been excellent so far in stopping 37 of 40 shots and has the team’s only win.
Anaheim got Ryan Getzlaf back last game but were shutout by Calgary, 2-0. The Ducks were the better team overall though and it took an outstanding effort by Mike Smith for the Flames to steal that one.
This will wrap up a four game homestand for the Ducks and they only have one win to show, so I’m expecting an all-out effort tonight.
Nick Ritchie missed the last two games but went through an on-ice workout Tuesday and could return as early as tonight. Ondrej Kase was hit hard in Monday’s game and forced to leave. Kase says he’s feeling better but his availability will be determined after the morning skate.
Even with the Ducks current injuries I think this line has opened too short. We’ll fire on Anaheim as a value play here and I would play it up to -143.
CALGARY FLAMES @ LOS ANGELES KINGS
Projected Goaltenders
Calgary – Mike Smith (confirmed)
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (confirmed)
Injury Report
Calgary – Jagr (questionable)
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Martinez (out)
Mike Smith will never pay for another meal in Calgary again as the city’s newest hero after becoming the first Flames goaltender to win in Anaheim in 13 years with a 43-save shutout. Calgary is coming off that really big win and finally conquering those demons but I wouldn’t worry about a letdown here. They’re on a bit of a roll now with a couple big wins and they need to keep the momentum going.
Calgary has given up almost 39 shots a game so far but they’ve actually done a good job of controlling play. They’re 11th in the league with a 51.5 CF% (LA is 14th at 50.07).
We’ll be on the Jagr watch again here as he’s expected to get into a game soon. Coach says he’s looking really good in practice now and getting up to speed on their system. I’m not sure we’ll see him tonight but here’s hoping.
The Kings are doing something they haven’t been accustomed to over the recent past and that’s shooting at a high percentage. Los Angeles is 5th in the league so far shooting 13.57% and they’ve also had some early good fortune evidenced by their 110.79 PDO which is 3rd highest in the league. Some of that is likely from John Stevens’ new system which has them focusing on taking higher quality shots. So far it’s working.
Defenseman Alec Martinez continues to be out for the Kings and that’s a pretty big loss for them, despite a couple early wins. He’s at least started to skate on his own again. Look for a bit of early season regression here tonight on the Kings side as the Flames keep the momentum going. Calgary is our second play tonight at +121 and is good down to (and including) +115.
NHL Game of the Day: Penguins at Capitals
Covers.com
Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals (-130, 6)
A powerful Russian leader surely was not mentioned on the first leg of the Pittsburgh Penguins' visit to the nation's capital. Expect that to change as the Penguins prepare to face Alex Oveckin and the Washington Capitals on Wednesday night, a matchup coming 24 hours after the reigning Stanley Cup champs were feted at the White House.
Pittsburgh has dual concerns entering the latest chapter of the Sidney Crosby-Ovechkin rivaly -- slowing down Washington's offense and its Russian superstar captain. The Penguins finally have something to build on, blanking Nashville in a Stanley Cup Finals rematch after they were outscored 15-5 in their first two games. Conversely, the Capitals are coming off their first loss, blowing a two-goal lead in an overtime defeat at Tampa Bay. Ovechkin was kept off the scoresheet in the setback after a scorching start in which he pumped in seven goals in the team's first two wins.
LINE HISTORY: The Capitals opened this epic rivalry as -130 home favorites and that's where the line sits as of Wednesday morning at Sports Interaction. The total hit the board at 6.0. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Penguins - D Ian Cole (Out indefinitely, mouth), RW Patric Hornqvist (Questionable Wednesday, hand).
Capitals - RW Tom Wilson (Out Wednesday, suspension).
ABOUT THE PENGUINS (1-1-1, 2-1 O/U): After getting pierced for 11 goals in his first two appearances of the season, goaltender Matt Murray earned his first victory with a 26-save shutout of Nashville, although he praised his teammates. "We weren't happy with either of the games prior to this," Murray said. "This is our first really good team effort and I think every single guy in the room stepped up." Defenseman Ian Cole lost some teeth after taking a slap shot to the mouth Saturday and will not be available, but forward Patric Hornqvist (hand) could make his season debut.
ABOUT THE CAPITALS (2-0-1, 3-0 O/U): T.J. Oshie scored twice and set up another tally as Washington built a pair of two-goal leads at Tampa Bay, but he lamented the fact that the team took its foot off the pedal. "Early in the season here, that's a learning moment for us," said Oshie, who had 10 points in four regular-season games versus Washington last season. "I feel like every year you kind of get that same thing. Once you get a lead, you start sitting back. So we'll get that out of our game." Evgeny Kuznetsov has eight assists, including on each of Ovechkin's goals.
TRENDS:
* Penguins are 1-4 in their last five road games.
* Road team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 15-4-2 in Penguin's last 21 games playing on three or more days rest.
* Over is 5-1 in Capitals last six overall.