Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 5/27/19
The Stanley Cup Finals get underway on Monday, May 27, as the St. Louis Blues will take on the Boston Bruins. St. Louis has been to the Stanley Cup three times but has come away empty-handed every time. The Boston Bruins have made 19 total appearances, winning six, including in 2013.
These two teams have met in the finals once before. That was in 1970 when Boston swept the series.
Featured Games
Louis Blues (+124) vs. Boston Bruins (-140)
The Stanley Cup Finals pits two teams that have shown a lot of grit to get to the finals. St. Louis began their run for the Cup by defeating the Winnipeg Jets in six, before winning a fierce seven-game series with the Dallas Stars. St. Louis then beat the second-ranked team in the Western Conference, the San Jose Sharks, in six to advance to the finals.
The Boston Bruins have had quite a run themselves. They started by winning a tough seven-game series with the Toronto Maple Leafs before taking out the Columbus Blue Jackets in six. Boston then swept the Carolina Hurricanes, giving them seven straight wins entering this contest.
Goaltending Matchup:
Jordan Binnington has done an amazing job in net for St. Louis. This is the first time he has played in the Stanley Cup playoffs and is making the most of his opportunity, playing in all 19 of his team’s games, posting a 2.37 goals-against average and a .914 save percentage. He showed a lot of moxie in the last series against San Jose, allowing 5 goals in both Game 1 and Game 3, but allowed just two total goals over the final three games, all Blues victories, to lead his team to the finals. Binnington appeared in 32 games this season, posing a 1.89 goals-against average and a .927 save percentage.
Tuukka Rask looks like he is in 2013 form when he led his team to their sixth Cup in franchise history. Rask has appeared in all 17 games for the Bruins, posting a 1.84 GAA, tops in the playoffs. He also has an outstanding .942 save percentage. Rask has won seven straight games, allowing nine total goals in the span with two shutouts. Rask finished the regular season with a 2.48 GAA and a .912 save percentage in 46 games.
Stat Pack: (Playoff Numbers)
Blues:
Goals For: 3.00
Goals Against: 2.53
Power-Play: 19.4%
Penalty Killing: 78.0%
Bruins:
Goals For: 3.35
Goals Against: 1.94
Power-Play: 34.0%
Penalty Killing: 86.3%
Prediction
The Boston Bruins are going to have a lot of excitement going their way as it should be a raucous crowd for Game 1. However, what has been a trend this post-season, is that teams who swept the previous series, lost Game 1 of their next series each time. Twice, that team came up against the Bruins (the Columbus Blue Jackets swept the Washington Capitals and the Carolina Hurricanes swept the New York Islanders).
Now we look for the shoe to be on the other foot as the Bruins have had a long layoff, which should take a lot of the luster off that seven-game winning streak. Goaltenders are not usually as sharp after a long layoff, and that should give the St. Louis Blues the edge they need to win Game 1 in Boston.
The total is set at 5.5 for this contest, and if there is going to be a game where the over is going to be reached it will be this one. With Rask not looking like himself due to the extended rest, we look for St. Louis to jump on him early as he shakes off some rust. Take the St. Louis Blues to win Game 1, 4-2.
Kevin Rogers
After the four division champions were knocked out in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, there were plenty of potential non-intriguing matchups for the final round. Ultimately, the NHL will showcase the Bruins and Blues for Lord Stanley’s Cup, as the two teams are meeting in this round for the first time since 1970.
The Bruins finished tied with the Flames for the second-most points in the NHL (107), but Boston still sat 21 points out first place in the Atlantic division. Yes, Tampa Bay ran away with the Atlantic by posting 128 points, but the Lighting were bounced by the Blue Jackets in one of the most stunning playoff upsets ever. Boston closed the regular season with a +44 goal differential, which ranked third in the NHL behind Tampa Bay and Calgary.
Boston needed to stave off Toronto in seven games of the first round, while trailing Columbus, 2-1 after three games in the second round. The Bruins are currently riding a seven-game winning streak after capturing the final three contests against the Blue Jackets, while pulling off a four-game sweep of the Hurricanes to advance to their first Stanley Cup Final since 2013.
In the Eastern Conference Finals, Boston outscored Carolina, 17-5, which includes 11 goals scored in two blowouts a TD Garden. Three different Bruins have scored at least seven goals in the playoffs, led by center Patrice Bergeron’s eight tallies, followed by wingers Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak. Three Bruins have produced at least 10 assists (Marchand, David Krejci, and Torey Krug), while goaltender Tuukka Rask has played in net for all 17 playoff games, while owning a spectacular 1.84 goals against average.
Out west, the Blues entered January by owning a 15-18-4 mark for 34 points, which was tied with the Senators for the least amount of points in the league. St. Louis’ 34 points was one worse than Los Angeles for the basement of the Western Conference. The Blues turned it on the final three months for one of the most furious comebacks ever by compiling a 30-10-5 record to accumulate 65 points, which was the highest point total in that span, edging the league-best Lightning, who racked up 64.
To take it one step further, the Blues sat 18 points behind the Jets for the top spot in the Central division on New Year’s night. St. Louis made up 18 points on Winnipeg over the final 45 games to actually tie the Jets for second place in the Central division with 99 points. The Blues grounded the Jets in the first round in six games, as St. Louis won three times at Winnipeg. St. Louis went back and forth with division rival Dallas in the second round until knocking out the Stars in seven games, capped off by a double-overtime triumph in the series finale.
The Blues fell behind the Sharks, 2-1 in the Western Conference Finals following a controversial no-call on a hand pass in a Game 3 home overtime loss. St. Louis rebounded for three consecutive wins, while allowing a total of two goals in those victories. The Capitals hoisted the Cup last season as they closed all four series with road wins, but the Blues have gone the opposite way by winning each of their three series at Enterprise Center.
The home team won each of the two regular season matchups, as the Bruins dominated the Blues at TD Garden on January 17 as a -160 favorite, 5-2. Boston and St. Louis each scored a pair of second period goals following a scoreless first frame, but the Bruins took the lead in the third period by scoring three times. The OVER of 5 ½ cashed as the Bruins scored their three third period goals on only six shots.
The Blues picked up revenge in the next matchup five weeks later in St. Louis with a 2-1 shootout victory as a -125 favorite. St. Louis snapped Boston’s seven-game winning streak as goalie Jordan Binnington stopped 31 of 32 shots, while the former third round pick put together an incredible 24-5-1 regular season record and 1.89 GAA since taking over for Jake Allen in early January.
Boston has reached the Stanley Cup Final for the third time this decade, as the Bruins are seeking their first title since edging the Canucks in seven games in 2011. Their last appearance in the Cup Final came in 2013 against the Blackhawks, as Chicago won in six games although each contest was decided by two goals or less.
The Blues actually made the Stanley Cup Final in each of their first three years in existence after entering the league in 1967. St. Louis won the Western Conference in 1967-68, 1968-69, and 1969-70, but failed to win the title each time. In fact, the Blues were swept in all three series to the Canadiens in ’68 and ’69, while the Bruins finished off the Blues in four games of 1970, as Boston won the finale of that series in overtime thanks to the famous Bobby Orr flying through the air game-winning goal.
NHL expert Ben Burns checks in with his thoughts on this series, “The Bruins made it look easy against Carolina. While I expect them to hoist the Cup, I also expect that they'll face a tougher challenge here. The Blues have been on a roll for months and come in full of confidence. Still, they arguably haven't faced a team as strong or battle-tested as Boston. The Bruins showed a lot in beating a talented Toronto team. The home team won both regular season meetings. Expect home ice to be significant in the series, the Bruins ultimately winning in Game 7.”
Veteran NHL handicapper Stephen Nover feels this series which reach the limit as well, "It has been an insane Stanley Cup. The Lightning get swept in the first round and the defending champion Capitals also go out in the first round. Now it's the Blues-Bruins. There is a certain randomoness to this series, too, because of all the extra time before this championship series starts. The Blues have proven tough on the road. Both teams are getting outstanding goaltending. So I see the series going seven games. But the Bruins just have a little too much especially with their great No. 1 line to win in seven."
The Bruins are listed as a -155 favorite to capture the Cup, while the Blues sit at +135 to win their first ever title.
Game 1 – St. Louis at Boston – Monday, May 27
Game 2 – St. Louis at Boston – Wednesday, May 29
Game 3 – Boston at St. Louis – Saturday, June 1
Game 4 – Boston at St. Louis – Monday, June 3
*Game 5 – St. Louis at Boston – Thursday, June 6
*Game 6 – Boston at St. Louis – Sunday, June 9
*Game 7 – St. Louis at Boston – Wednesday, June 12
All games starting at 8:05 PM EST and will air on NBC.
*If necessary
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NHL Stanley Cup Final: Blues vs Bruins series preview, odds and best bets
Rohit Ponnaiya
Patrice Bergeron and the Boston Bruins are -167 favorites to beat the St. Louis Blues for their seventh Stanley Cup victory.
The puck drops for the 2019 Stanley Cup Final on Monday, as the Cinderella St. Louis Blues battle the Boston Bruins. Both teams have ridden their red-hot goaltenders throughout the NHL playoffs and we could be in for some low-scoring contests over the next two weeks. We break down the series odds and give you in-depth trends and notes so you can make the best bets in this best-of-seven series.
ST. LOUIS BLUES VS BOSTON BRUINS
Series Winner Odds: St. Louis +120/Boston -167 @ Sports Interaction
Regular Season Head to Head: 1-1
Schedule
Game 1: TD Garden, Boston, MA - Monday, May 27, 8:00 p.m ET
Game 2: TD Garden, Boston, MA - Wednesday, May 29, 8:00 p.m ET
Game 3: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO - Saturday, June 1, 8:00 p.m ET
Game 4: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO - Monday, June 3, 8:00 p.m ET
*Game 5: TD Garden, Boston, MA - Thursday, June 6, 8:00 p.m ET.
*Game 6: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO - Sunday, June 9, 8:00 p.m ET
*Game 7: TD Garden, Boston, MA - Wednesday, June 12, 8:00 p.m ET
* if necessary
BACKGROUND
The first game these two teams played against each other in the regular season was a 5-2 Bruins victory but that was without rookie sensation Jordan Binnington in nets for the Blues. The second showdown was a 2-1 shootout win for St. Louis, with both Binnington and Boston netminder Tuukka Rask playing lights out. Expect this series to be more similar to the latter game, with both goalies on the top of their game at the moment.
In an NHL post season that's had a ridiculous amount of shockers, St. Louis might be the most surprising team of all. As late as January, the Blues were at the bottom of the NHL standings but turned their season around, largely due to the play of Binnington who went 24-5-1 with a 1.89 GAA and .927 save percentage in the regular season.
After sneaking past the Stars in seven games in the second round, the Blues found themselves down two games to one against the Sharks in the Western Conference Finals before reeling off three straight wins with a combined score of 12-2.
The Bruins have been steamrolling their competition lately with seven consecutive wins, a span where they have outscored opponents 28-9. They've also gone 10-2 in their last 12 games with one of those losses coming in double overtime and the other being a tight 2-1 contest. After sweeping the Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Finals they'll have ten days of rest by Monday, which could make them a bit rusty in Game 1.
GREAT GOALIES
When it comes to the NHL playoffs a hot goaltender can often carry a team far. These teams have the two hottest goalies in the league, and the skaters around them aren't too shabby either. Binnington has a 2.36 GAA and .914 save percentage in the playoffs while Tuukka Rask has a 1.84 GAA and .942 save percentage for Boston.
In the Blues last nine games, Binnington has been even better with a GAA of 2.00 and a .925 save percentage. Expect this series to be low scoring and take the Under if you see the O/U set at anywhere near 5.5.
FURIOUS FINISHES
Both Boston and St. Louis have scored 16 goals in each of the first two periods and 24 goals in the third period. With 42.1 percent of all their goals being scored in the final frame, look into betting the third as the highest scoring period.
BRUINS BLANKING TEAMS EARLY
Speaking of period bets, one area where Boston might have the edge is in the first period. While both teams have scored 16 goals in the opening frame, the Bruins have allowed only six first-period goals in 17 games while the Blues have given up 17 in 19 contests.
It might be worth looking into the odds for the Bruins to score first or to lead after the first period. Boston is 34-7-5 when scoring first this season, and 25-5-1 when leading after the opening 20 minutes.
Even when their opponent scores first, Boston is an impressive 11-6 at home, a tidbit that could prove intriguing for live bettors.
ST. LOUIS STAYING DISCIPLINED
The Bruins have been absolutely devastating on the power play during the postseason, converting on 34 percent of their chances. It might not be easy to get the man advantage against the Blues however, with St.Louis having a league low 6:18 PIM.
A matter of fact Boston has the second-fewest PIM in the playoffs at just 6:21 so don't be surprised to see the vast majority of this series played at even strength.
Staying disciplined might negate one of Boston's biggest strengths considering that the only other team which averaged fewer than seven penalty minutes per game during the playoffs was the Toronto Maple Leafs, and they took the Bruins to seven games in the first round.
SKATER TO WATCH: DAVID KREJCI, BOSTON BRUINS
Penalties, or the lack-thereof, could prove be an x-factor when figuring out which player will lead the series in scoring as well.
Brad Marchand (+550) and Patrice Bergeron (+600) have some of the best odds but both of them have scored most of their points this post-season on the man advantage and they might not get many of those opportunities against the Blues. Marchand has scored 10 of his 18 points on the power play, while Bergeron has totaled seven of his 13 with an extra man on the ice.
David Krejci might hold better value at +850. Krejci leads the Bruins in even-strength points with 11 (while also chipping in with three points on the PP) and centers the Bruins vital second line. The Czech veteran put up 73 points during the regular season and has scored a point in each of his last five games but did sit out a scrimmage on Thursday due to illness. He's expected to practice on Saturday and play on Monday and if he's healthy could prove great value at +850 to lead the series in scoring.
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Blues' long-shot Stanley Cup odds could body check NHL bookies
Patrick Everson
The St. Louis Blues' Cinderella playoff run has beaten the odds and created major liability for sportsbooks heading into the Stanley Cup Final. Patrick Everson talks to Jeff Stoneback of MGM sportsbooks and Nick Bogdanovic of William Hill about how the Blues have Vegas sweating and bettors singing "Gloria."
On a mid-November night, six weeks into the 2018-19 NHL season, the St. Louis Blues traveled to Las Vegas to face the Golden Knights. The Blues were in the Central Division basement with 15 points, and the defending Western Conference champion Knights weren’t much better at second-to-last in the Pacific Division with 17 points.
Other than it being Friday night on the Strip, at an always-sold-out T-Mobile Arena, it seemed like any other early-season NHL game, with both teams still trying to find their form. However, at MGM Resorts sportsbooks, it marked the beginning of what’s become a stunning situation that looms large heading into Monday’s opening of the Stanley Cup Final between St. Louis and Boston.
The Blues entered that Nov. 16 game as +134 underdogs and fell behind 1-0 six minutes in. Then they reeled off four unanswered goals in a modestly surprising 4-1 victory, thrilling St. Louis fans who traveled out in force for the contest. Those fans, in turn, opened up their wallets on the then-40/1 shot to win the Stanley Cup.
“Early in the season, we always get a spike on visiting teams in the Stanley Cup futures book,” MGM sportsbooks’ director of trading Jeff Stoneback told us. “That day, we obviously had a lot of out-of-town visiting fans come to the game. So we did take a large number of bets on the Blues for that game. The Blues beat the Knights, and those fans then came in and bet the Stanley Cup futures.”
Still, it seemed innocuous enough, especially since six weeks later, on Jan. 2, the Blues were NHL cellar dwellers, last among all 31 teams with 34 points. MGM books had St. Louis at 150/1, while William Hill US had the Blues at their longest odds of the year, 300/1 to hoist Lord Stanley’s chalice.
“That was the high-water mark there, the first of the year, because they were dead last,” William Hill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said.
Little did Stoneback or Bogdanovich know that as the NHL calendar steamed toward June, the Blues would still be alive – and with that life, significant liability for the books.
Some bettors got on board at those huge numbers throughout much of January, while St. Louis actually made modest improvements, standing 25th in the league – but still second-to-last in the Central – with 45 points on Jan. 22.
A day later, Jan. 23, was when things really began to take shape. The Blues routed host Anaheim 5-1, then followed with three more road wins, including an impressive 1-0 overtime shutout of league-leading Tampa Bay. Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington yielded just five goals in those four games. Bettors were getting more intrigued.
The Blues then swept a home-and-home with perennial Western Conference contender Nashville, followed by five more wins – including three on the road – to run their hot streak to 11-0. St. Louis capped the run with a 3-2 home overtime victory against Toronto to stand third in its division and fourth in the Western Conference.
“Give the people credit. They bet it really early, before the run started. So hats off to the bettors for that one,” Bogdanovich said. “Then they were on the Blues early during that run, so I give them credit for that, too. And the number dropped, and they just kept betting it and betting it.”
Meanwhile, Stoneback was seeing the same situation unfold at MGM books, as the Blues’ Stanley Cup price tightened all the way to 8/1.
“We took some big bets when they were on a double-digit winning streak, so we’ve got a lot of liability on St. Louis,” he said.
How much is a lot? Well, think back to a year ago, during the Golden Knights’ inaugural season, when many Vegas sportsbooks were lamenting the monster losses they would incur if the hometown team won the championship. The Knights created a heavy sweat, reaching the Stanley Cup Final before losing to Washington in six games. MGM books are sweating it again this year.
“St. Louis is horrible. All the talk last year of Vegas winning the Cup, how much everybody was gonna lose, we’re gonna lose close to that if St. Louis wins the Cup,” Stoneback said. “We are very close to the liability we had on the Knights. The Blues came from so far down, and people just kept taking a shot.”
In postseason play, the Blues dropped Winnipeg in six games, outlasted Dallas in a seven-game series, then beat San Jose in six games in the Western Conference final. St. Louis is now a +135 underdog to win the championship series, with MGM harboring mid-six-figure liability on the Blues and William Hill US in a similar spot – which is actually a better position than last year, when Bogdanovich’s risk room dodged approximately $1.5 million in Golden Knights liability.
“It’s like a third of that,” Bogdanovich said of St. Louis’ liability. “The Blues were reasonably priced for the playoffs, it was around 20/1. But there was so much liability to them already. Bettors are still on the Blues on a game-by-game basis. On the futures, all the damage was done at those high numbers.
“It’s a phenomenal move, from last place to the championship series.”
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NHL
Dunkel
Monday, May 27
St. Louis @ Boston
Game 1-2
May 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
13.081
Boston
14.692
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-160
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-160); Over
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NHL
Long Sheet
Monday, May 27
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ST LOUIS (57-33-0-11, 125 pts.) at BOSTON (61-29-0-9, 131 pts.) - 5/27/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 13-2 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.
BOSTON is 36-22 ATS (+3.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 42-22 ATS (+11.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 41-23 ATS (+11.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 24-14 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 36-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 296-247 ATS (-104.3 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 1-6 ATS (-8.6 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest this season.
BOSTON is 60-63 ATS (+60.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-3 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 3-3-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.2 Units)
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NHL
Monday, May 27
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Trend Report
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St. Louis Blues
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
St. Louis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
St. Louis is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing Boston
St. Louis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Bruins
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games
Boston is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games at home
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Boston is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing St. Louis
Boston is 4-10-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against St. Louis
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