Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 6/6/19
After getting absolutely hammered in Game 3, the St. Louis Blues responded with a 4-2 victory in Game 4. That tied the series at two apiece as the series heads back to Boston.
St. Louis would take the lead just 43 seconds into the contest on Ryan O’Reilly’s fourth goal of the postseason. Boston would tie the score a little over 13 minutes into the period on a Charlie Coyle tally, but Vladimir Tarasenko would give St. Louis back the lead a little over two minutes later.
Brandon Carlo would score the only goal of the second period, a shorthanded tally at the 14:19 mark. That sent the game tied at two heading into the third, where O’Reilly would score his second goal of the game with a little less than 10 minutes left in the contest to give the Blues a lead they would not relinquish. Brayden Schenn added his fourth goal of the playoffs with a little less than two minutes left in the game to seal the victory.
Featured Game
Louis Blues (+130) vs. Boston Bruins (-157)
St. Louis Notes
St. Louis has shown incredible resiliency in winning key games on the road late in series during this postseason run. In the first round, they blew a 2-0 series lead, dropping each of the next two games in St. Louis, but rallied to win Game 5 in Winnipeg before winning the series. In Round 2, they trailed the Dallas Stars 3-2 in their best-of-seven series but won Game 6 in Dallas before winning the decisive game seven at home. Last round, they were tied at two with the Sharks before winning Game 5 in San Jose, then taking the series at home. Can they do that one more time in this huge Game 5 in Boston?
Boston Notes
The big news in Boston is the status of star defenseman Zdeno Chara. The possibility that he will miss Game 5 is looking increasingly likely, as he took a puck to the face on a shot by Brayden Schenn and suffered some fairly severe bleeding. He did not play in the third period but remained on the bench.
The power-play for the Bruins has been deadly in the postseason, but St. Louis has figured out a way to shut them down in the two losses that Boston has suffered. The Bruins may have been a perfect 4-4 in Game 3, but they are 0-5 in the two losses. A power-play goal clearly seems to be the remedy for a victory.
Goaltending Matchup:
That Jordan Binnington put together a stellar performance in Game 4 was not a surprise to anyone. During this postseason run, the St. Louis goaltender has allowed five or more goals four times and has responded by allowing two goals or less in each of the contests following those mediocre performances. The question is what we will see now in Game 5. In the second game following the mediocre performance, he looked outstanding in two of those contests, allowing two goals in one and pitching a shot out in the other. However, two games after giving up five goals San Jose in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, he gave up five goals again. Binnington has a 2.52 goals-against average and a .909 save percentage.
Rask did not play poorly in Game 4, he simply got outplayed. The Boston goaltender stopped 34 of 37 shots in the loss. He has now dropped two of the last three games against St. Louis. Consider that in the first round series against Toronto, the Bruins trailed 3-2 in that series as Rask had allowed 13 total goals through the first five games. Yet, he rattled off three straight victories and has now won 12 of his last 16 decisions. Rask has a 1.96 goals-against average and a .938 save percentage.
Stat Pack:
Blues:
Goals For: 2.96
Goals Against: 2.74
Power-Play: 17.3%
Penalty Killing: 73.7%
Bruins:
Goals For: 3.57
Goals Against: 2.10
Power-Play: 34.8%
Penalty Killing: 87.5%
Trends to Know
St. Louis Blues are:
8-3 in their last 11 games on the road.
4-9 in their last 13 games on Wednesday.
14-6 in their last 20 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
Boston Bruins are:
58-24 in their last 82 games at home.
2-5 in their last seven Stanley Cup finals games.
21-8 in their last 29 games against Western Conference opponents.
Prediction
It Is not a surprise to us that St. Louis came away with the victory in Game 4, as we were expecting this series to be tied at two, heading back to Boston for Game 5. We were even looking like we were going to be accurate on our prediction of St. Louis winning Game 4 3-2 when an empty net goal ruined our prediction.
Now we shift to Game 5, which is a must-win for Boston. While they have proven they can win in St. Louis and have proven during these playoffs that they can win a key game on the road late in a series to stay alive (Game 6 over the Maple Leafs in Toronto), this is the Stanley Cup finals after all. You simply can’t give away the home-ice advantage in a decisive Game 5 that you have at home.
Consider that the Bruins have never trailed in the series, which tells you a lot about their ability to pressure opponents and get the lead. That is what we expect here as well.
The total was first set at 5.0 for this contest but has moved to 5.5. The conventional wisdom would be to expect a tight-checking affair, making it low-scoring, but we look for Boston to pressure and dominate as they have in the odd-numbered games in this series. Boston won Game 1, 4-2, then won Game 3, 7-2. Both of those contests went over, and that is what we expect here. Take the Boston Bruins to win, 5-2.
( 9 ) ST LOUIS @ ( 10 ) BOSTON | 8:00 pm 6/6/2019
Play OVER ST LOUIS using the puck line in Road games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 19 Overs and 10 Unders this season (+14.5 units)
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( 9 ) ST LOUIS @ ( 10 ) BOSTON | 8:00 pm 6/6/2019
Play ON ST LOUIS using the money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
The record is 26 Wins and 13 Losses this season (+13.4 units)
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( 9 ) ST LOUIS @ ( 10 ) BOSTON | 8:00 pm 6/6/2019
Play ON ST LOUIS using the money line in Road games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 19 Wins and 10 Losses this season (+14.5 units)
ABOUT THE BLUES: Ryan O'Reilly broke out of a rut in a big way, ending an eight-game goal drought by scoring in the first minute before delivering the game-winning tally in the third period. Berube also lavished praise on the fourth line of Oskar Sundqvist, Alexander Steen and Ivan Barbashev, who each logged more than 17 minutes and were matched up against Boston's top line in Game 4. "I'll tell you what, Sundqvist's line was unreal," Berube said. "They did a great job against (Patrice) Bergeron all night. They were out there almost every shift against Bergeron's line. I thought they did a helluva job."
ABOUT THE BRUINS: Chara reportedly suffered a broken jaw when he was hit in the face with a puck in Game 4, but coach Bruce Cassidy did not rule him out even though the 6-foot-9 blue-liner was not at practice Wednesday. While Boston's top line usually sets the tone offensively, the No. 2 unit of Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci and David Backes has been mired in a slump, combining for only two assists in the series. “Talk is cheap at this time of the year,” said Krejci, who was held without a shot on goal in Game 4. “We’ve just got to look at ourselves in the mirror and do the things that we talk about doing.”
OVERTIME
1. Bruins D Matt Grzelcyk, out the past two games, practiced in a non-contact jersey Wednesday but remains in the concussion protocol.
2. St. Louis is 8-3 on the road in the playoffs, including a 3-2 overtime win in Game 2.
3. Bruins third-line C Charlie Coyle has scored in three straight games.
PREDICTION: Bruins 4, Blues 2
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NHL
Dunkel
Thursday, June 6
St. Louis @ Boston
Game 9-10
June 6, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
14.113
Boston
12,660
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-155
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+135); Under
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NHL
Long Sheet
Thursday, June 6
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ST LOUIS (59-35-0-11, 129 pts.) at BOSTON (63-30-0-10, 136 pts.) - 6/6/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 27-8 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 25-8 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 38-24 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 44-24 ATS (+11.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 127-104 ATS (+233.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 43-25 ATS (+11.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 38-25 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 26-13 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 297-248 ATS (-104.9 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 140-138 ATS (-91.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-5 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-5-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.6 Units)
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NHL
Thursday, June 6
Trend Report
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
St. Louis is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
St. Louis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Boston
St. Louis is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Bruins
Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Boston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Boston is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home
Boston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Boston is 5-11-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against St. Louis
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