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NHL Eastern Conference Betting Breakdown

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NHL Eastern Conference Betting Breakdown
By TIM SULLIVAN

The Philadelphia Flyers kept a postseason lineup together with bubble gum and band aids just six months ago. Injuries, scratches, roster moves, coaching changes, it made no difference. Despite the adversity, despite the turmoil, the Flyers won the East.

Mike Richards.Well, it’s a new season, with new hope throughout the conference, but the situation on Broad Street remains the same: The Flyers are still in the eye of the storm.

“It's not an ideal situation.”

That was general manager Paul Holmgren last week, after learning that goaltender Michael Leighton will miss at least a month with a bulging disc in his back, while scrappy forward Ian Laperriere is out indefinitely with post-concussion syndrome.

Not the best of news as the Flyers begin their title defense, certainly. With many teams making offseason improvements, the Flyers’ task was going to be tough anyway. Now, it’s even tougher.

And so, as the conference champs pick up the pieces, let’s take a look at some other teams as we get ready for the first puck to drop:

WORST TO CURSED: New York Islanders

The Islanders, who finished last in the Atlantic last season, seemed set to make a big jump in Year 2 of franchise player John Tavares’ career, but they, too, have been bit.

Two key cogs — defenseman Mark Streit and forward Kyle Okposo — are out indefinitely with shoulder injuries. With a full lineup, we saw a postseason berth returning to the Island. Now? Not so much.

A SOUTHERN SURPRISE: Atlanta Thrashers

Atlanta flirted with a playoff berth last season, and has more depth and experience this season. Dustin Byfuglien heads a pack of former Chicago Blackhawks now in Thrashers uniforms. Fresh off a Stanley Cup, they should instill some much-needed killer instinct. Goalie Chris Mason won 30 games last season. He could reach 40 this year.

TAKING A STEP BACK:
Montreal Canadiens

Montreal’s playoff Cinderella story was topped only by the Flyers’ run, but Philadelphia -- in the East Finals -- exposed Montreal as the No. 8 seed that it was. There is talent up front, but not much size. Too much is expected of a club that barely qualified for the postseason last year.

BOUNCING BACK: Boston Bruins

Still hard to believe that any team could blow a 3-0 series lead in today’s game, but the Bruins pulled it off, losing four straight to Philadelphia in Round 2. But we like the mix of size, speed and skill that Boston has. Keep in mind, they were a No. 1 seed just two years ago. We expect a strong season from center David Krejci, as he returns from a wrist injury, and left wing Milan Lucic, as he returns from ankle problems.

BEST OVER TEAM: New Jersey Devils

Crazy, right? The team with the goalie who’ll likely go down as the greatest ever? Well, Martin Brodeur stands to get much more rest this season and backup Johan Hedberg has had a goals-against average over 3.00 in two of the last three seasons.

Plus, Ilya Kovalchuk up front for a full season is bound to net some overs. On the back end of back-to-back games for New Jersey, think a Hedberg start, and think over.

BEST UNDER TEAM: New York Rangers

In a city of sports stars, perhaps the least recognized is Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. He is one of the league’s best -- his team allowed just 222 goals last season, good for fourth in the conference -- and let’s face it, New York did little up front in the offseason. They potted just 218 themselves last year. It’s hard to imagine much more this season.

SEASON POINT TOTALS: Over Plays

** The on-again, off-again Carolina Hurricanes, having missed the playoffs last season, are a great over buy at 86.5.

** We also like the Ottawa Senators, with some punch on the backline in the form of Sergei Gonchar, as an over play at 87.5.

** We definitely think the Bruins will be a team possessed this season, one that should top 100.5.

SEASON POINT TOTALS: Under Plays

** The Tampa Bay Lightning can score, but won’t play enough defense to top 92.5.

** The Toronto Maple Leafs, even with a low 84.5 number, are in for another long year.

** The Flyers, as the hunted now, will struggle to top 97.5.

** And, for a change, we expect the Washington Capitals to take their foot off the gas in the regular season, and really prepare for a long postseason run. If we’re right, they won’t go over 107.5.

AND THE CONFERENCE WINNER IS ...

We’ll run from the chalk here and bypass Pittsburgh (3-1) and Washington (3-1). We’ve already addressed them a few times, but we really think the Bruins (17-2) -- with depth everywhere and motivation aplenty -- will outlast the Devils (15-2) in a terrific seven-game East Final.

 
Posted : October 3, 2010 10:57 pm
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Eastern Conference Predictions
By Judd Hall

The Eastern Conference is home to some of the better rivalries in the NHL, but has lost two of the last three Stanley Cup Finals. There is no shortage of power at the top of the group. The middle and bottom set, however, are prime examples of the have-nots. Let’s look at each team and their point totals, courtesy of the good people at Sportsbook.com.

1: Washington Capitals – The Caps were the class of the regular season a year ago, but clammed up in the playoffs. The team is virtually intact with stalwarts Alexander Ovechkin Alexander Semin running the attack. Simeon Varlamov will be sharing the netminding duties during the year with Michal Neuvirth, which can work. What will be worrisome to some fans is Bruce Boudreau forcing the team to be better defensively. That tends to happen when you have a team that has a 3-0 lead that ends up being a 6-5 survival win. The new defensive mindset will be a work in progress, which means the 121 points they had last season won’t happen. But Washington has a weak enough division that they’ll easily eclipse the century mark. Fearless Prediction: ‘Over’ 108 ½

2: New Jersey Devils – The early playoff exit for the Devils to Philly has masked what was a quality campaign. New Jersey has a formidable front line with Zach Parise, Travis Zajac and Ilya Kovalchuk that will rack up points like they’re going out of style. But they’ll have some better depth on the second line with the return of Jason Arnott from Nashville to anchor with old cohorts Jamie Langenbrunner and Patrik Elias. Put that kind of offensive strength in front of Martin Brodeur between the pipes and you have a team that will pick up a third straight 100-point season. Fearless Predictions: ‘Over’ 101 ½

3: Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo surprised a lot of people by winning the Northeast last season. And it will surprise people that they can win the division once again. Lindy Ruff knows how to get the most out what the front office gives him, but he has a lot in terms of talent this year. The Sabres have great veteran leadership in Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek. But they have great youth on the blue line in Tyler Myers and Tyler Ennis getting his first full season on the wing. Ryan Miller will make sure this team will win around six or seven games they have no business in winning. Fearless Predictions: ‘Over’ 91 ½

4: Pittsburgh Penguins – The Pens got a long resting period this past summer after making it to the Stanley Cup Final in 2008 and ’09. That can only help with Sydney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin as they prepare for the season. What is of great concern to me is Jordan Staal missing around 12 games to open the year with a foot infection. That can cost them valuable points for us in our season plays. But once Staal is up and running, this team will get home ice in the playoffs. Fearless Prediction: ‘Under’ 104 ½

5: Philadelphia Flyers – The Flyers met expectations in a roundabout way in making the Stanley Cup Final last season. Yet Philly is going to behind the eight ball to start the season as Michael Leighton is suffering from a bulging disc in his back, pushing Brian Boucher into the starting role. Peter Laviolette will get this team going early, but I’m always wary of Nik Zherdev being a first-line winger for anyone. This team is set to be a mid-90 point squad. Fearless Prediction: ‘Under’ 98 ½

6: Boston Bruins – Boston would do well to forget its last four games of the 2009-10 campaign. Hopefully they find a way to work without Marc Savard in the lineup to start the year with his post-concussion syndrome. Nathan Horton will help that out, but this is his first run with a team that expects good things from him on the attack. I’m still sold on Tuukka Rask or Tim Thomas in goal, but they’ll do enough behind a Zdeno Chara-led blue line to keep this team playing in late April. Fearless Predictions: ‘Under’ 99 ½

7: Carolina Hurricanes – I’m sure this pick will make some people scratch their heads, but the ‘Canes should have never been as bad as they were last season. Eric Staal should be much better this season after a 29-goal effort in 2009. Rob Brind’Amour retiring actually helps this team in the fact they can go younger, but the trade-off is losing a great penalty killer. Cam Ward looks like he is full strength and can easily guide this team to great things. Fearless Predictions: ‘Over’ 92 ½

8: Ottawa Senators – Chalk me up as one of the people that didn’t think much of the Senators last season. This team gave the Pens all they could handle in the first round this year. The biggest issue for me on this team is the battle between Pascal Leclaire, his health and Brian Elliot to be goaltender. Jason Spezza is due to get back on his horse with a great year this season. Meanwhile, Alex Kovalev is in a contract year, giving him plenty of reasons to light the lamp in Ottawa. Fearless Prediction: ‘Over’ 87 ½

9: New York Rangers – John Tortorella is one of the better coaches in the NHL and did a great job last season with a team that really didn’t fit his defensive style. They should do much better in a total-rink effort this year. Marian Gaborik will be the main goal scorer for the Blueshirts. The problem is that Gaborik is the only guy that can give Henrik Lundqvist some breathing room. The Rangers are good enough to be in the hunt, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Fearless Prediction: ‘Under’ 87 ½

10: Montreal Canadiens – For all of you Canadiens fans that think they are going to go further than the East Final last season, stop living in a dream world. Carey Price has done nothing to make me think he’ll make Montreal backers forget about Jaroslav Halak and his heroics of last summer. And Travis Moen being listed as a wing on your top line shows just how tough things are going to go on the offense. Fearless Prediction: ‘Under’ 87 ½

11: Tampa Bay Lightning – Tampa Bay is a favorite of a few people to make some noise in the postseason. Steven Stamkos has proven that he’s ready to be the top target for the Lightning attack. And Guy Boucher is a great up-and-coming head coach. What bothers me here is Vincent Lecavalier is not the same player that he once was for the ‘Ning. Plus, Dan Ellis and Mike Smith have done little to nothing to endear themselves to the starting goalie job. Steve Yzerman is going to have to get creative to get rid of Lecavalier for me to believe this is a playoff caliber team. Fearless Prediction: ‘Under’ 92 ½

12: New York Islanders – There is a lot of reasons to like the youth that the Isles have on the roster, starting with John Tavares. To be honest, I would have taken them to make a serious run at the Top 8 of the Eastern Conference if at full strength. And there lies the rub, injuries. Forward Kyle Okposo and defender Mark Streit have had shoulder surgery that will keep them out until December and February respectively. That is going to hurt a team that is already never quite sure what is going with Rick DiPietro in goal. Fearless Prediction: ‘Over’ 80 ½

13: Toronto Maple Leafs – There is a lot to like about the Maple Leafs when it comes to stopping the puck. Jean-Sebastien Giguere is still a great netminder that got brushed aside in Anaheim. But Dion Phaneuf and Tomas Kaberle anchor one of the best collection of defensemen anywhere in the league. What Toronto has is a lack of depth on the pivot with Tyler Bozak penciled in as the top line’s center. This team is going to be involved in a lot of 2-1, 3-2 kind of matchups. Are they going to end up on more of the right side of those games? I’m going to say that’s a negative. Fearless Prediction: ‘Under’ 84 ½

14: Florida Panthers – No team has a lower bar set for them on season point totals than the Panthers. It’s understandable thinking at the betting shops with Dale Tallon looking at the big picture, instead of the current season. There is some good talent up front with Stephen Weiss and David Booth, while Tomas Vokoun stands on his head to stop shots fired his way. Sure, they’ll miss Nathan Horton, but his departure isn’t the end of the world. They aren’t a playoff team, but this point total is way too low and is a bit of an insult. Fearless Prediction: ‘Over’ 71 ½

15: Atlanta Thrashers – I want to tell the Thrashers fans that they’ll be good this season, but that would be an outright lie. Dustin Byfuglien gives them some good toughness on the back line. Nik Antropov is a good scoring forward as well. But GM Rick Dudley is more concerned with building towards the future, which means we won’t have too much to cheer in Atlanta. Just ride out the year and know that it will pay off down the road. Fearless Prediction: ‘Under’ 82 ½

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Posted : October 5, 2010 9:39 pm
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