What Bettors Need to Know: Flyers at Bruins
Die another day
The Philadelphia Flyers have rose from the NHL postseason ashes, down 0-3 to the Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference semifinals, to win the next three games and force a deciding Game 7 showdown Friday night.
The Flyers completed the comeback with a grimy 2-1 victory in Game 6 Wednesday night, holding off a late push from the Bruins in the third period. Boston out-shot Philadelphia 31-27 for the game, edging them 10-6 in the final frame.
“It’s a dangerous position to be in,” defenseman Chris Pronger told the Toronto Sun. “Dangerous for us. Dangerous for them. The pressure is on both teams.”
The Flyers can become the first team in 35 years of playoff hockey to come back from a 0-3 series deficit. The last team to claw their way back from three games down were the 1975 New York Islanders, who forced and won a Game 7 against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Philadelphia has out-scored the Bruins 11-5 over the past three contests, two of those games being decided by one goal. The Flyers' defense and goaltending got the job done in Games 5 and 6, allowing only one goal on 53 total shots.
"Even when we were down 3-0, we felt like we were close," forward Daniel Briere told the CBC. "Bounces here and there weren't going exactly the way we had hoped for and we weren't that far off. We knew we had enough to get back in this series."
"Now that we're here and now that we have climbed all the way back in this series, we want it too," he added. "We have to realize that the last game will be the toughest to leave with."
Boston stranglers
The Bruins jumped out to a 3-0 series lead behind their potent offense. Boston scored 12 total goals in those three wins while allowing Philadelphia to find the back of the net seven times. Even in a 5-4 overtime loss in Game 4, the Bruins scoring attack was still firing.
But since that overtime defeat, Boston has managed to score just one goal. But it hasn’t been for a lack of trying. The Flyers' defense has thrown caution to the wind, blocking 99 shots this postseason – second only to the Montreal Canadiens (125) in the playoffs.
"I'm not going to criticize my players' effort," Bruins head coach Claude Julien told reporters. "I thought we were ready.
"But somehow, we have to find a way to score goals. They had about 30 blocked shots tonight."
Leading scorer Patrice Bergeron, who has 11 points this postseason, has gone dry the past two games while returning star Marc Savard has also been invisible for most of the series, having failed to score since netting the overtime winner in his return in Game 1 of the series.
The Bruins power play has also been a no-show for most of the series. In 20 opportunities, Boston has cashed in on the man advantage just three times (15 percent). That’s a huge dip from its power-play success in the first round. The Bruins scored six goals in 22 man advantages against the Buffalo Sabres.
"We've had three chances so far and we haven't been able to do it," Milan Lucic lamented. "They've been playing well, so we have to find a way to break them down."
Be like Mike
Injuries to their goaltending corps have been a regular occurrence for the Flyers this season. But even the most optimistic Philly fan was worried sick after starter and first-round star Brian Boucher went down with a knee injury in Game 5.
Backup and third goalie on the Flyers’ depth chart, Michael Leighton has calmed those worries with his performances between the posts in the past two games. He stepped in when Boucher went down, stopping all 14 shots and preserving the shutout in Game 5, then turned away 30 of 31 shots in Game 6 to send the series back to Boston.
“Down 3-0 is certainly not a great situation,” Leighton told the Boston Herald. “But Lavy (coach Peter Laviolette) said ‘Either you can give up or you can get back.’ We knew we had to take it one game at a time, but we wanted it.
“We knew we were a better team than losing four straight.”
Leighton joined the team off waivers in December and took over the starting job once injuries hampered Ray Emery and Boucher. He was solid for the second half of the schedule before suffering an injury of his own, a sprained ankle in March, that sidelined him until now.
“It’s been like a broken record all year with different goaltenders stepping in,” captain Mike Richards told the media of Leighton. “But were confident in his ability.”
Do or Die in Beantown
By Judd Hall
Do you believe in karma?
Miriam-Webster Dictionary defines it as “the force generated by a person's actions held in Hinduism and Buddhism to perpetuate transmigration and in its ethical consequences to determine the nature of the person's next existence.”
Some could argue that the city of Boston cashed in a lot of those spiritual chips when the Red Sox fought back from an 0-3 hole to beat the Yankees in the 2004 American League Championship Series. That begot them a World Series title.
I bring up that little flashback now because the Bruins appear to be set to repay that debt in the Eastern Conference Semifinal against Philadelphia.
Boston surged out to a 3-0 lead against the Flyers thanks in part to the solid play of Tuukka Rask. The Finnish backstop was practically automatic between the pipes in the first three games of this series, evidenced by a .928 save percentage. In Game 4 through 6, however, Rask has stopped just 88 percent of the shots fired his way.
All of the blame can’t be pinned on Rask during this slide. The offense and special teams have been lacking in the second half of this series for the B’s. The Bruins’ power play has not found the back of the net in their last six chances. We shouldn’t be shocked by this since they ranked 23rd in the NHL with a 16.6 percent power play unit during the regular season.
Philadelphia’s attack has shown signs of life during this series, scoring at least four goals on three occasions. But the defense has improved as this round has worn on…particularly in goal.
Brian Boucher had stopped 42 of the last 46 shots on goal that he saw from Boston. But he joined the laundry list of goalies the Flyers have put on the disabled list after suffering a knee sprain in Game 5. Boucher’s absence leaves Michael Leighton as the last line of defense for Philly in every sense of the term. That has helped Philadelphia win three straight games to knot up this series.
Leighton has stepped into an impossible situation here to post an impressive .978 save percentage to go along with a 0.63 goals against average. I know that he’s only played 95 minutes in the playoffs, but those are good numbers no matter what people might think. What will be problematic for the new starting netminder for the Flyers is that he hasn’t seen any consistent action since mid-March. Plus, Leighton has lost four straight road games he has been in for Philadelphia.
Even though the momentum is on Philly’s side, the betting shops have posted the Bruins as $1.25 home favorites (risk $125 to win $100) with a total of five. Gamblers can still get their fix on with the Flyers to complete the ultimate comeback for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).
There certainly has been precedent for the betting public to take the Flyers in this spot. We’ve had three road teams already win a Game 7 in this postseason. Over the past two years, the visitors have gone 6-3 in Game 7.
Another thing that is helping out Philadelphia in its quest to join the 1942 Maple Leafs and 1975 Islanders in coming back from an 0-3 deficit to win a playoff series. That’s the fact that they’re 6-0 when posted as a road pup coming off of a home win as a favorite this season. The ‘under’ went a healthy 4-2 in this situation for the Flyers.
Boston has gone just 2-5 this season when listed as a home “chalk” when following a defeat as a road pup. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in those contests.
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PHILADELPHIA (48-38-0-7, 103 pts.) at BOSTON (46-34-0-14, 106 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 46-48 ATS (-28.4 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 11-15 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 2-9 ATS (-9.6 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 10-8 (+1.2 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-8-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.5 Units)
PHILADELPHIA vs. BOSTON
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Boston is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Eastern Conference Playoffs Second Round, Game Seven (Series Tied, 3-3)
PHILADELPIHA AT BOSTON
PHILADELPHIA: 0-6 SU after allowing 1 goal or less in BB games
BOSTON: 8-1 SU playing with triple revenge