Who wants it more?
June 10, 2009
By Judd Hall
In Game 6 of last year’s Stanley Cup Final, Pittsburgh could do nothing but watch the Red Wings skate the trophy around at Mellon Arena. The Penguins were determined not to let history repeat itself on Tuesday night, but they were facing a team that just beat them 5-0 over the weekend.
The Penguins showed no ill effects from their meltdown last Saturday as they held serve for a 2-1 win as $1.20 home favorites to force a deciding Game 7.
Pittsburgh dominated the play in every aspect of Game 6. They held a 24-12 shot advantage after the first two periods en route to a 31-26 SOG edge. And the Pens were much more physical in this contest as they outhit Detroit on Tuesday 35-26.
What’s even more striking about those numbers is that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin had absolutely nothing to do with the goals scored by Jordan Staal or Tyler Kennedy. In fact, Pittsburgh’s heralded duo combined for just three shots on goal and five for total for the past two games.
Perhaps nobody on the Penguins had more to prove than Marc-Andre Fleury. Pittsburgh’s netminder was pulled after he coughed up five goals in 36 minutes of work over the weekend. Fleury arguably played the best game of his brief career by stopping 25 of the Red Wings’ 26 shots. That number includes a late-game save on Daniel Cleary’s breakaway and the rush he saw come in the final 30 seconds of play.
Pavel Datsyuk appeared to come back down to Earth on Tuesday night, registering just two SOG in almost 20 minutes of action. Johan Franzen also put a pair of shots on target with no result. Henrik Zetterberg did about as much as could possibly be expected with four SOG, two hits and three blocked shots.
Someone who surprisingly hasn’t earned his keep during this series has been Marian Hossa.
Hossa was an important part of the Penguins Stanley Cup Final run last season, posting 10 points in the regular season and 12 goals during the playoffs. The Penguins reportedly offered him a five-year contract that would have paid out $7 Million annually. Yet the Czech opted to take a one-year deal with Detroit because he felt it was a better chance to win a championship.
Throughout the Western Conference Playoffs, Hossa did alright with six goals and six assists. Yet he’s disappeared during the Final with just three helpers to his credit. We’ve also seen him not back check as much as he could in this series. And he’s been peeling off on the attack instead of pressing the issue in the crease. It’s almost as if the Red Wings are winning in spite of his play.
Hossa will get his chance to justify his move to the Motor City as the series returns to Detroit for a winner-takes-all Game 7. And if the oddsmakers are right, then he’ll do just that.
Most sportsbooks have installed the Red Wings as $1.75 home favorites with a total of 5 ½.
That line might seem a little high to many folks compared to what we saw earlier in the series. In Game 1, the Wings were initially listed as $1.60 faves. Game 2 opened with Detroit as a $1.45 home “chalk.” And the blowout that we call Game 5 had the winged wheels starting off as $1.55 favorites.
It’s awfully hard to knock the betting shops for this move. Detroit has been the most dominant team at home during the playoffs, sporting an 11-1 mark. The Red Wings’ lone defeat came in triple-overtime against Anaheim in the second game of the West semis.
You also have to take into consideration that Fleury has a lot of demons at Joe Louis Arena this postseason. He’s 15-8 with a 2.68 goals against average and a .906 save percentage. But Fleury has stopped just 85.7 percent of the Wings’ shot and has a 4.31 GAA in the three games he’s played in Detroit during the playoffs.
History is definitely against the Penguins pulling off a stunner. There have been 14 Game 7s in Stanley Cup Final history and only two road teams have won hockey’s ultimate game. There have also been five series where the home held serve in the first six games. Only one of those series saw the visitors hoist the Cup when the 1971 Canadiens upended the Blackhawks in Chicago Stadium.
So Pittsburgh has no shot in hell of winning this game, right? Wrong. The 2009 playoffs have shown us that you’re not guaranteed to win Game 7 just because you’re at home. Road teams have gone 3-1 in four Game deciding tilts during the postseason.
One of those Game 7 victories came from the Penguins at Washington in the East semis. In that series, Pitt also lost the first two games on the road before winning four of five. Now you can make the point that they took on rookie netminder Simeon Varlamov in that game and not Osgood. Yet Detroit’s goaltender has lost two of the three Game 7s he’s played during his career.
The total is shaded to go ‘under’ the posted total of 5 ½. That makes sense with the ‘under’ going 4-2 for the series so far. There is no reason to believe that it won’t come through in Game 7 as teams tend to play a lot closer to the vest for a match of this magnitude. Recent history between these squads makes a low scoring play a lot easier to back. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Detroit and 10-4-2 in the past 16 overall battles.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need to Know: Stanley Cup finals Game 7
By Ari Baum-Cohen
Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings (-180, 5.5)
Home ice is nice
The home team has won every game this series and Pittsburgh must try to break that trend in order to win its first Stanley Cup since 1992. The Wings have only lost once at home (11-1) in this year’s playoffs.
The Wings will have last change at home, and will have the matchup advantages against Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Detroit has done an excellent job containing Pittsburgh’s two young superstars at home. Malkin has two assists in three games in Detroit while Crosby has yet to register a point.
Goaltending
Detroit’s Chris Osgood and Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury have played well this postseason, but both have been much better at home than on the road.
Osgood is sporting a 1.40 goals against average at the Joe Louis Arena compared to a GAA of almost a goal and a half higher on the road.
Fleury made several spectacular stops in the third period of Game 6 to keep the Penguins in front. In Detroit, however, he has not been as fortunate. Fleury’s performance in Game 5 was not awful, but he did let in five goals. The young netminder also allowed some questionable goals in Games 1 and 2 at Detroit.
Secondary scoring
Typically this section would be about Detroit’s depth, but several Wings players have gone missing this series, most notably Marian Hossa. The All-Star forward, a perennial point-per-game player, has gone relatively unnoticed throughout the series. Jiri Hudler, Tomas Holmstrom and Daniel Cleary have all been playing below their capabilities as well.
Jordan Staal has emerged as a secondary scoring option for the Pens. Staal had a game-changing, short-handed goal in Game 4 and was responsible for the opening goal in Tuesday’s tilt. Crosby and Malkin have not registered a point in the Pens’ last two games but Pittsburgh has managed to stay alive in the series.
Overcoming the odds
Detroit is currently -180 to win Game 7, the most either team has been favored this series. Home teams are 12-2 in Game 7s of Stanley Cup finals, and a road team has only won the Stanley Cup once after trailing 3-2 in the final series (1-21).
However, in sports, any team can win on any given day. Good luck, bad bounces and turnovers 180 feet from the net can be the difference between a Stanley Cup win and a summer of regret.
Other notes
- Penguins are 5-2 in their last seven games following a win.
- Red Wings are 5-1 in their last six after scoring two goals or less in their previous game.
- The under is 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s last four road games.
- The over is 8-2-2 when Pittsburgh is a road underdog of +151 to +200
- The under is 5-0 in Detroit’s last five games.
Stanley Cup Finals Betting Trends
By Covers.com
We’re down to the last hockey game of the season for bettors to cash in. With that in mind we thought we’d try and dig up some saucy stats and trends to help our readers with their wagers for Friday’s Game 7.
Please feel free to add any other numbers you think worthy in the comments below:
-Friday’s game marks the 15th Game 7 in the history of the Stanley Cup finals. The home team has won 12 of the previous 14 cases. The only teams to lose on their home ice in the finals were the ’71 Blackhawks and the ’45 Red Wings.
-The home side has also won every game in this series and, outside of Game 6, covered the puckline as well.
-There are a handful of Detroit players who have a shot at lifting the Cup for a fifth time, but the club hasn’t been tested to this degree in any of its past four championship seasons. The Wings swept the Flyers and Capitals (1997 and 1998), polished off the Hurricanes in five games (2002) and shut the door on the Pens in six last season.
-While Chris Osgood has been the starting goalie on more than one championship team, but he hasn’t always played well in tough spots. His solid rookie campaign was tarnished after the top seeded Wings were eliminated by the eight seeded San Jose Sharks in 1994.San Jose finished off Detroit on a goal setup by Osgood’s poor clearing attempt. The veteran netminder is also 1-3 in his last four elimination games with a goals against average of 3.75.
-The under has been a good bet in this Cup finals and a lot of that may have to do with the fewer amount of penalties being called. In last year’s finals, the two clubs amassed 22 minor penalties in the series’ first two games. In the first two games of this year's rematch there was only seven penalties called and most of those came in the final minute of Game 2. Pittsburgh and Detroit each had two power play chances in Tuesday’s contest with both sides finishing without a special teams marker.
A couple other quick ones:
-The Pens are 38-14 in their last 52 games playing on two days’ rest.
-Red Wings are 5-1 in their last six after scoring two or less in their previous game.
-The under is 5-0 in Detroit’s last five home games and 9-3-2 in the club’s last 14 Stanley Cup finals games.
PITTSBURGH (60-35-0-10, 130 pts.) at DETROIT (66-26-0-12, 144 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 91-36 ATS (+2.0 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
DETROIT is 40-12 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 121-86 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 82-50 ATS (+18.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 15-6 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
PITTSBURGH is 68-53 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 30-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 9-6 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 9-6-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.9 Units)
Stanley Cup Finals
Pittsburgh at Detroit
Pittsburgh:
15-6 SU playing with two days rest
9-2 SU off BB non-conf games
Detroit:
8-0 Over revenging a loss where team scored 1 goal or less
15-3 Over off BB Unders
PITTSBURGH vs. DETROIT
Pittsburgh is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
NHL Finals
Home team is 6-0 in this series, with Penguins scoring two goals total in three games in this building; including LY's Finals, Pittsburgh lost five of six in Motor City, winning only in OT in Game 5 LY, when they staved off elimination- Red Wings outscored them 21-6 in those six games. Last game, Detroit had only 12 shots on goal in first two periods, in a clean game where only four penalties were called. Anything can happen in one game, but Penguins haven't come close yet in this arena.
Bettors expect stars to shine in Game 7
By Doug Upstone
It has been quite a NHL Playoffs, with TV ratings up, interest on the rise for the sport and first Game 7 in three years. While Carolina and Edmonton was exciting in 2006, the argument can be made this is the most anticipated final encounter since Colorado and New Jersey in 2001 or even 1994, when the New York Rangers broke their 54-year drought between Stanley Cups.
This Cup Finals have been all about the chalk, with the home favorite winning each time, as only the last game decided by a single goal. The final score in most cases didn't tell the story. Five years ago New Jersey and Anaheim played seven games, with the home team winning each contest. That series was still played under the old rules and even insomniacs were nodding off watching that style of play.
Today's version of hockey is about speed and skill, and each team is loaded with both. Detroit has overcome a number of injuries to get to this point and should be as rejuvenated as they have been in some time, playing before the home folks and working for just the second time in six days.
Betmania.com opened Detroit as -170 money line favorites (highest of the series) and the wagering public has bet them up to -185. The Red Wings are 11-1 at Joe Louis Arena in the postseason and have won nine in a row at home. They are 9-2 as -150 to -200 playoff favorites.
Detroit will need the likes of Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg and struggling Marion Hossa to have big games. Zetterberg and particularly Hossa have not been as effective of late. Hossa admitted to ESPN.com reporter Pierre LeBrun he is pressing. Hossa made the controversial choice of leaving Pittsburgh for Detroit in the off-season and could be 0-2 in Cup finals, should the Wings lose. Detroit players like their chances in decisive conflict.
"We're confident going back to our home building and playing in front of our own fans, so it will be a fun game going back for Game 7," Detroit captain Lidstrom said.
Pittsburgh is 6-6 on the Stanley Cup chase road in 2009, with three consecutive defeats in Detroit, totaling two measly goals. The Penguins are 15-6 with two days between games this season. This is the time for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to elevate their games to superstardom. They felt the taste of bitter defeat a year ago and are 60 minutes from hoisting Cup for first time. Neither has scratched the score sheet the last two games, a third would raise more questions than find solutions for a team that is 43-19 after scoring two or less goals.
Like most hockey confrontations, goaltending arrives front and center for such an important contest. Chris Osgood for the Red Wings has the pedigree and the rings. Pittsburgh's Marc-Andre Fleury has a chance to step into greatness. Most people forget Fleury was the first piece to Penguins revival, being just the third goaltender taken as the first draft choice. He played on some wretched Pittsburgh squads before Crosby and Malkin showed up and is still the biggest question mark coming into Game 7. He's been brilliant at times in the series, but also less comfortable than a player wearing skates three sizes too big in three losses in Motown.
"You have stuff happening in your head, but you have to just block all the outside, all the negative thoughts and just play the game, keep it simple, have some fun," Fleury said. "To have an opportunity like this to get [the Cup], it's awesome."
The total is listed at its lowest figure of the seven games at Un5.5 (the rest were even or over 5.5) and the previous three contests in Detroit played Under. The Red Wings are 9-3-2 UNDER in last 14 Stanley Cup Finals contests, with Pittsburgh 16-5 UNDER after allowing one goal or less in their previous game this season.
The winner of Game 7 will have untold joy, which will commence at 8:05 Eastern on NBC, with the favorite 13-3 in last 16 meetings between these teams.
Great first period 😉
What a game ;D
Cash has be going nuts :rolleyes:
What a game ;D
Congrats Penguins
What a game ;D
Cash has be going nuts :rolleyes:
Spot on pal 😀
We are great,we have to make a Betting Service together 8)
THX!