Monday's Ice Plays
By Judd Hall
It’s a light night of action on the ice with just two games on Monday’s NHL card. We’ll get to see a pair of the better teams in the league hosting outright disappointments. Will the heavy home favorites come through or will it be a night for the underdogs?
Stars at Capitals – 7:05 p.m. EST, Versus
Before the Olympic Break, the Stars had the look of a team poised to make a run for a playoff spot. They won six of their nine games leading into the two-week hiatus, cashing in as pups on two occasions.
Dallas has done an about face since coming back from the time off, losing three straight contests. It isn’t like the offense hasn’t tried to make a move for the Stars as they’ve outshot their opponents 92-83 in their last three games. What’s worse is they are not getting any help from the goaltenders as Marty Turco and Kari Lehtonen have shown they can’t catch a cold after giving up a combined 17 goals during this losing skid.
The Capitals are gliding right along towards what they hope is a deep playoff run after making some shrewd moves at the trade deadline. Washington had been a little lax on the blue line, but the pickups of Joe Corvo and Milan Jurcina help plug those holes. Now they just need Simeon Varlamov and Jose Theodore to figure out who wants to be the No. 1 goaltender.
Outside of the goalie issue, Washington is making bettors wonder if there is any time to wager on them. The Caps have won all three games they’ve played after the break as favorites. They’ve covered the puck line in two of those meetings. Yet what is problematic for the gambling public is they’ve had to lay almost $300 on the Capitals’ last two games.
We’re going to see more of the same on Monday night for the “chalk eaters.” Most betting shops have installed Washington as a $3.00 home (risk $300 to win $100) with a total of 6 ½. The Stars can be had for a plus-270 return (risk $100 to win $270).
There aren’t many teams that can say they’ve won 14 straight games at home, but the Capitals can. Washington hasn’t lost at the Verizon Center since a Dec. 28 meeting with the Hurricanes. Bruce Boudreau’s club has been a reasonable puck line play at home as well, winning by at least two goals in nine of the 14 victories. The betting shops have gotten smart to this as you’ll have to lay $1.10 in order to cash that ticket.
While Dallas has won seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, only one of those triumphs came after the lockout. Washington has won two straight contests, with the ‘over’ cashing in on both occasions.
Blue Jackets at Kings – 10:35 p.m. EST
If last year was the best in the history of the Blue Jackets, then this season is no doubt the worst they have ever had. Columbus has been plagued by injuries and a disappointing season by Steve Mason. Instead of making a return trip to the playoff, the Jackets are relegated to playing out the string.
Mason has definitely been the main culprit to the woes in Columbus. The reigning Calder Trophy winner is just 16-20-7 with a 3.08 goals against average this season. To give you an idea of how bad things are for the sophomore backstop, he had 20 losses in 61 starts last year.
What’s been hurting the Jackets since the break is what has hurt them for most of the year: the lack of killer instinct. In their last two games, they have taken a lead into the third period. Yet the Blue Jackets found a way to lose. It should come as no surprise that Columbus is the worst team in the NHL with a .655 win percentage when leading after two periods of play.
Los Angeles has been a doormat for many a seasons. Biding its time as they acquired numerous high draft picks. Now the Kings are sitting in fifth place in the Western Conference. However, Terry Murray’s squad has suffered consecutive 4-2 losses to Nashville and Montreal has raised some concern. That apprehension should be short lived as LA has the Stars coming up in a recent two-game road trip. And they’ll have a four-game homestand against teams either playing on no rest or in the final game of their road trek.
The betting outlets are expecting things to change for the Kings, who are listed as heavy $1.80 home faves (risk$180 to win $100) with a total of 5 ½. Columbus can be taken to win outright for a return of plus-165 (risk $100 to win $165).
You’re taking your betting life into your own hands by backing the Blue Jackets in this spot. C-Bus has gone 10-23 this season as a road pup. Plus they’ve have four of its last five games as a road pup against Pacific Division foes. The ‘under’ is cashing in at a 3-1 clip right now in this situation.
Los Angeles is 7-3 in its last 10 games as a home favorite this season, with the ‘over’ going 6-4. When you look at the Kings as a home faves against the Central Division, you’ll they are just 2-4 for the year. The ‘over’ still proves to be a good play, evidenced by a 4-2 mark in those fixtures.
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Monday’s Best NHL Bets
Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals (-320, 6.5)
Marc Crawford would have loved if the Olympic break never happened. The Dallas Stars head coach had his team playing some of its best hockey of the season but the Olympics stole his club’s mojo.
Goalie Marty Turco has been the biggest victim. He was 4-2 with a .967 save percentage in his last four starts before the break and in his first two starts back, he’s 0-2 with a .727 save percentage.
Kari Lehtonen, Turco’s backup, was just as bad in his first start in over a year. The former Thrashers netminder allowed six goals on 34 shots and after the game Crawford suggested Lehtonen looked “tired”.
You don’t want to be having any kind of uncertainty between the pipes when you’re facing a squad with Washington’s talent.
Pick: Over
Columbus Blue Jackets at Los Angeles Kings (165, 5.5)
As if the season wasn’t hard enough already on Columbus fans, the Blue Jackets lost three straight one-goal games to three of the best teams in the NHL. The tough post-Olympic stretch isn’t over either.
Columbus travels to Los Angeles to face a hungry Kings crew. Los Angeles was jostling the Sharks and Blackhawks for the top overall spot in the West in December but now finds itself it a fight just to secure a playoff spot.
“Just because we’re in right now doesn’t mean we’re in,” Kings forward Ryan Smyth told the Los Angeles Times of the playoff race following his team’s second straight defeat. “We’ve got to play to catch the teams ahead of us instead of looking at the teams behind us.”
Expect the Kings to refocus and pile it on against the tough-luck Jackets.
Pick: Kings
DALLAS (28-24-0-12, 68 pts.) at WASHINGTON (44-14-0-7, 95 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 7-23 ATS (-18.1 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 0-7 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
WASHINGTON is 44-21 ATS (+68.0 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 20-5 ATS (+9.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 22-7 ATS (+12.7 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
DALLAS is 42-21 ATS (+18.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
DALLAS is 29-17 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
DALLAS is 18-8 ATS (+9.3 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
DALLAS is 144-86 ATS (+34.5 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 59-55 ATS (+123.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 98-140 ATS (-46.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)
COLUMBUS (25-29-0-11, 61 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (38-22-0-4, 80 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 25-40 ATS (+66.8 Units) in all games this season.
COLUMBUS is 8-23 ATS (+40.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 this season.
COLUMBUS is 9-26 ATS (+38.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOS ANGELES is 38-26 ATS (+71.9 Units) in all games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 26-20 ATS (+49.1 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 18-7 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
LOS ANGELES is 101-123 ATS (+232.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 3-10 ATS (-7.0 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 6-5 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 6-5-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.3 Units)
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 4-12-1 SU in its last 17 games ,when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Dallas
COLUMBUS vs. LOS ANGELES
Columbus is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games ,when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Columbus is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 9 games when playing at home against Columbus
Los Angeles is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Columbus
DALLAS at WASHINGTON
DALLAS: 16-6 SU off a road loss
WASHINGTON: 91-136 SU in non-conference games
COLUMBUS at LOS ANGELES
COLUMBUS: 1-9 SU when playing 3 or less games in 10 days
LOS ANGELES: 19-11 SU after playing a home game
Hot Teams
-- Washington won three in row, 20 of last 24 games.
Cold Teams
-- Stars lost last three games, outscored 17-5.
-- Blue Jackets lost last three games, all by one goal. Kings lost four of their last six games.
Totals
-- Last three Dallas games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Columbus games. Six of last eight King games went over the total.
Playing second of back-to-back nights
-- None.
Series Records
-- Blue Jackets won three of last four games against the Kings and won four of last five visits to Staples Center.