Eastern Conference Final Outlook
By Judd Hall
No. 4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. No. 6 Carolina Hurricanes
Series Price: Pittsburgh -200, Carolina +170
Series Format: Pittsburgh, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: The Stanley Cup is won and lost not only on speed, skill and determination, but also on emotion. And we’re getting to see a pair of clubs that ran the emotional gamut to reach this Eastern Conference Final.
Pittsburgh was able to overcome a 0-2 deficit by winning four of its last five games against the Capitals to get back to the conference title round for the second straight year. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have certainly shoved a horseshoe up their backside after winning their second straight Game 7 on the road.
The Penguins have reached this stage due to a few factors, but nobody did more for this club in the postseason than Sidney Crosby. Pittsburgh’s wunderkind has done everything he can to prove that maybe he is the second coming with a league-high 12 goals in 13 playoff games…two of those coming in the deciding game against Washington on May 13.
Crosby isn’t the only offensive assassin that Pittsburgh has on its roster. Evgeni Malkin appears to be back on his game after scoring two goals and helping out on eight others in the series against the Capitals. Third-line pivot Jordan Staal is shaking off the playoff rust by finding the back of the net twice in his last three games.
Pitt’s power play is also coming alive at just the right time. The Pens have converted on nine of their last 29 advantages against Washington. Even more impressive than the 31 percent success rate is that three of those scores came when special teams quarterback Sergei Gonchar was out of the lineup with a knee injury.
I’m starting to think that Carolina is a team of destiny. The Hurricanes score two goals in less than a minute to pull off a monumental upset at New Jersey in a first round Game 7. Then Scott Walker scores his first career playoff goal off of Tim Thomas in overtime to push past Boston.
The Hurricanes’ success will depend greatly on how Eric Staal does on the ice. Carolina’s Staal brother leads the team with 13 points, nine of which came from lighting the lamp. How important is he to their offense? Of the eight games the ‘Canes have won in the postseason, he has scored in seven of them.
Carolina will have to figure out a way to fix its special teams play. The Hurricanes currently own the worst power play left in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, converting just 10.4 percent of their chances. That’s not going to cut it when you consider the Penguins are snuffing out 81.6 percent of the power plays they’ve faced.
When your power play sucks as much as it has for the ‘Canes, you need someone else to pick up the slack. That’s what Carolina has in netminder Cam Ward. The 2006 Conn Smythe Trophy winner has a stellar 2.22 goals against average in the playoffs and he has a 94.2 save percentage when he’s killing a penalty.
Gambling Notes: The season series was split between the two clubs, but that number is very misleading.
On December 4, Pittsburgh won 5-2 as an EVEN money pup. That was also the last time that Peter Laviolette was behind the Hurricanes’ bench. Paul Maurice returned to the team that he one knew as the Hartford Whalers on Dec. 6. All Carolina has done with Maurice is go 41-24-5.
The Pens were a fairly dominant team at home during the regular season and it’s come through in the playoffs with a 4-2 mark at Mellon Arena. Puck line plays weren’t great for bettors in those matches, going 2-4 at home in the postseason.
If this series go to seven games, bet the mortgage on Carolina. The Hurricanes as they’re a perfect 4-0 in Game 7s since moving to Raleigh in 1997.
Outlook: This is going to be a fun series to watch, but it all comes down to whether or not the Hurricanes can handle Pittsburgh’s offense.
Carolina has the defense to keep themselves in many of the games to kill off any profitable puck line plays you might have tried. As good as they play, they won’t be able to keep Sidney Crosby quiet all round long.
Sportsbook.com is expecting the Penguins to win the series in five games for a plus-300 return (risk $100 to win $300). That might be a little presumptive as Carolina just seems to find a way to win a game or two when they have no business of coming out on top.
Instead, take Pittsburgh to reach its second straight Stanley Cup Final in six games for at 4/1.
vegasinsider.com
NHL Eastern Conference finals preview and picks
By Jon Campbell
Carolina Hurricanes (+170) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-180)
Before the playoffs began, there weren’t many giving the Carolina Hurricanes a chance to win the Stanley Cup.
No big names on defense. Questionable goaltending. Too small, said the naysayers.
About the only thing large was their odds to win the Cup. And for the third straight series, they’re big underdogs to advance to the next round (+170).
It’s tough to blame oddsmakers. The Canes are up against a talent-loaded Pittsburgh squad that features two of the top three scorers in the playoffs. Sidney Crosby is tied for the lead with 21 – including a league-leading 12 goals – and Evgeni Malkin is close behind with 19. Ten different players for the Pens also have at least two goals through two series.
The Canes only have seven but what they lack in offense, they make up for in defense. Of the four teams remaining, you might say Carolina is the team relying most on defense to win.
Cam Ward has been the goalie of the postseason after out-dueling Martin Brodeur in Round 1 and then goals against-leading Tim Thomas in Round 2. The Canes also have the best penalty kill of the four teams remaining at 90 percent and they’ve only seen three overs in their 14 games.
The Pens, meanwhile, carry an over/under record of 7-5 and they’ve seen the over in four straight games. A power play that has scored nine goals in the past six games is partly to thank for that but the numbers aren’t the whole story.
Pittsburgh has struggled to get quality chances with the extra man recently and with Sergei Gonchar hurting with an apparent knee injury, the Pens could have trouble in the next round. Between Ward’s play and Carolina’s aggressive penalty kill, don’t be surprised if we see a few shorthanded goals from the Carolina side.
The difference in this series though, might come down to who can outlast who. The Pens are coming off two tough series against rivals Philadelphia and Washington while the Canes are coming off a pair of seven-game series.
Gonchar is already hurting from being kneed by Alex Ovechkin and Rod Brind’Amour is questionable for Game 1 for Carolina with a face injury after getting nailed with a puck last game. And those are just the injuries we know about.
Expect more to come as this series wears on and watch to see which team is wearing down more late in games.
Pittsburgh is the favorite but Carolina has the defense and goaltending and is worth the risk with the underdog value.
Pick: Carolina in six games
Hockey Today
SCOREBOARD
Monday, May 18
Carolina at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EDT). The Hurricanes and Penguins open the Eastern Conference finals.
STAR
Sunday
— Dan Cleary, Red Wings, scored twice against the team that drafted him and led Detroit to a 5-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals.
BACK ON ICE
Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Sergei Gonchar(notes) returned to practice Sunday with the hope of playing in the Eastern Conference finals opener Monday. Gonchar sat out Games 5 and 6 of the conference semifinals against Washington after injuring his right knee while being hit by Alex Ovechkin in Game 4. He unexpectedly returned for Game 7 on Wednesday, but his playing time was reduced, and he had not skated until practicing Sunday.
SPEAKING
“It’s a race to four wins, but it’s good to get the first one.”—Red Wings captain Nicklas Lidstrom(notes) after Detroit beat the Chicago Blackhawks 5-2 on Sunday in the Western Conference finals opener.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Scott Walker scored at 18:46 of overtime as the Hurricanes defeated the Bruins 3-2 in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals last time out.
The Hurricanes won that game as +250 underdogs, while the five goals went as a PUSH against the posted over/under (5).
Rod Brind'Amour and Sergei Samsonov scored in regulation for the Hurricanes. Cam Ward stopped 34 shots in the victory.
Sidney Crosby scored twice and added an assist to lead the Penguins to a convincing 6-2 victory over the Capitals in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals last time out.
The Penguins won that game as +115 underdogs, while the eight goals sailed OVER the posted over/under (5.5).
Craig Adams, Bill Guerin, Kris Letang, and Jordan Staal added singles for the Pens. Miroslav Satan and Evgeni Malkin pocketed two assists apiece in the win.
Team records:
Carolina: 45-30-7
Pittsburgh: 45-28-9
Carolina most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing Boston are 6-4
After playing Boston are 7-3
After a win are 5-5
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing Ottawa are 6-4
After playing Washington are 8-2
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games when playing Pittsburgh
Carolina is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Pittsburgh is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
Pittsburgh home to Carolina, Thursday, May 21
Eastern Conference Finals
Carolina at Pittsburgh
Carolina:
6-16 SU off road win by 1 goal
13-5 Under off road win
Pittsburgh:
23-5 SU at home off win by 4+ goals
26-7 SU at home with same season revenge
CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH
Carolina is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games when playing Carolina
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
NHL Playoffs
Pittsburgh is 6-10 vs Carolina the last four years, 4-4 the last two, 1-1 in each building this season, with Hurricanes 1-4 in last five visits to Steel City. Both teams just finished seven-game series, so rest between series was beneficial to all. Penguins are 4-2 at home in playoffs; their last four games all went over the total. Carolina won Game 7 in Boston, Game 7 in New Jersey, so foreign arenas don't bother them much (4-4 on road).
CAROLINA (53-35-0-8, 114 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (53-32-0-10, 116 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 34-12 ATS (+19.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 75-47 ATS (-0.2 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 48-33 ATS (-18.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 23-13 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CAROLINA is 53-43 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 35-23 ATS (+10.1 Units) second half of the season this season.
CAROLINA is 26-21 ATS (+51.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CAROLINA is 19-11 ATS (+32.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 7-5 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 7-5-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.0 Units)