Saturday's best NHL bets
Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins (-166, 5)
There should be a ticker-tape parade in Boston, because it appears that goalie Tim Thomas is finally coming back down to earth. Thomas is 8-0 with an absurd 1.39 goals-against average and a sparkling .959 save percentage, but he has finally shown some cracks in his three most recent starts. Against Pittsburgh,
Washington and Buffalo, he combined to give up nine goals even though he picked up a pair of victories.
Against Washington, he was benched after giving up three goals through two periods.
"I understand," Thomas said. "Coach came and talked to me after the second period and told me what his thoughts were. And I said I understand and I agree."
But then again, he likely will return to orbit against Ottawa. Over the past three seasons he is 8-2 against the Senators with a sub-2.20 goals-against average. Included in those wins is a 4-0 win over Ottawa in Canada last month. In the victory he stopped 29 shots as the Senators squandered three power plays.
"The effort in front of me was great," Thomas said. "Our 'D' is doing an incredible job blocking shots when needed, clearing rebounds when needed. They're making life easy for me right now."
Pick: Bruins
New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings (-251, 5.5)
The Kings are doing one of the hardest things in the game for a young team – buying into defense and back-checking.
Los Angeles is embracing the less glamorous side of the game as the team is tops in the NHL in goals against (1.9) and No. 1 in penalty kill (91.5). At home, the unit is even better, killing off all 26 enemy power plays and is the only team not to give up a tally down a man on home ice. The team’s ability to stifle opponents with the man advantage has allowed it to turn a mediocre attack into a potent one that can counter-attack at any time.
Substantial depth has helped this aggressive defensive approach, as no fewer than nine forwards saw at least 10 minutes of ice team in the team’s most recent game. On the blueline, six players registered at least 12 minutes off the bench.
"You can't back down in this league," defenseman Matt Greene. "We can't shy away if we want to get points and win in the playoffs."
They should get another two points against New York.
Pick: Kings
What bettors need to know: Hockey Night in Canada
Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs try to snap a seven-game winless streak on Saturday night but it won’t be easy hosting the surging Canucks. Vancouver is 7-1 over its last eight games and 3-1 in its last four road games.
Goals hard to come by for Leafs
Toronto is 1-10 in its last 11 games and most of that has to do with the team’s inability to light the lamp. The Buds are averaging fewer than 1.5 goals per game over the cold spell and their power play is just 4 for 43 over the same period.
Right now, the Leafs will take goals anyway they can get them.
“It could be a breakaway, it could be a pretty goal, it doesn’t matter,” coach Ron Wilson told the Toronto Sun. “But if it’s an ugly one, that would kind of reinforce what the coaches are saying. We’re overpassing, overhandling in situations around the front of the net. An ugly goal would really go a long way.”
Not surprising, the under has cashed in seven of the Leafs’ last eight games.
Spreading the Wealth
While the Leafs struggle to find goal production, the Canucks are getting offensive firepower from all lines. Mario Bliznak, fresh off his recall from the minors, centered the Canucks’ fourth line against Ottawa this week and netted his first goal of the season in the 6-2 romp.
"I was just driving to the net and the puck went in the air and it was a lucky play," Bliznak told the Vancouver Province after the game. "It feels good to get the first one and hopefully I can continue.”
Vancouver has scored three or more goals in all but one of its last eight contests.
Notes and Trends
This will be the fifth game for the Leafs since captain and star defenseman Dion Phaneuf went down with a leg injury. He isn’t expected back in the lineup for at least another month. Toronto is 0-4 and has allowed four goals in three of those games.
The over is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings between these two teams.
Vancouver is 6-0 in its last six games against the Maple Leafs.
Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks
San Jose looks to avenge a 4-0 loss to the Flames a few weeks back. This time, it’ll be the Sharks who have the home-ice advantage and are working with some rest.
Baby Steps
Flames coach Brent Sutter made a small adjustment to his lineup Tuesday night against the Avalanche and was immediately rewarded for the change. Sutter bumped winger Curtis Glencross to the second line in place of Niklas Hagman.
Glencross repaid his coach for the promotion by tallying two goals in the 4-2 win over Colorado.
“You know, as a player, what’s going on,” Glencross told the Calgary Herald after the game. “It’s something where they feel you’re doing your job right and they’re going to reward you. If you keep doing your job right, you’ll keep getting rewarded.”
Glencross will remain on the second line with Rene Bourque and Olli Jokinen for Friday’s game against the Coyotes.
Shark-bitten
San Jose continues to struggle in an area it normally excels at – scoring. The same team that finished inside the top seven in league scoring last two seasons has only 37 markers in 14 games and just 21 of those have come at even strength.
The Sharks scored one goal in their 2-1 shootout win against the slumping Islanders and that came off a 5-on-3 power play.
“Five on three – we’ve got to score there, especially when it’s another one of those nights when we’re not scoring five on five,” Sharks defenseman Dan Boyle, who scored the lone SJ goal, told the San Jose Mercury News.
Notes and Trends
The Flames scratched forward Brett Sutter, nephew of coach Brent Sutter and son of GM Darryl, who allegedly threw a punch late Thursday night in a Scottsdale, Arizona bar. No word on if charges will be pressed.
This will be Sharks center Joe Thornton’s second game back since his two-game suspension.
The under is 4-1 in the Sharks’ last five games and 5-2 in their last seven games against the Flames.
Special teams key in hockey handicapping
By: Barry Daniels
One of the most important variables of handicapping an NHL game is researching how a club fares on special teams. Identifying a hockey team’s success rate on the power play and penalty kill is probably even more important than spotting a football squad’s prowess on kickoff and punt returns.
It might be easy to assume that teams doing well in the standings are also good on special teams, and that club’s not registering many wins are experiencing difficulty. But, as we will see by studying the statistics below, that is not always the case.
Despite entering weekend action just two games above .500 at 7-5-2, the Minnesota Wild owned the best power play in the league and the seventh-best penalty killing unit.
The Wild have connected on 17 of their 62 opportunities with the man advantage for a 27.4 percent success rate. Defensively, Minnesota has allowed just nine goals in the 68 times it has been shorthanded for an 86.8 percent mark.
Minnesota will be in Florida this weekend for a Friday contest against the Panthers and a Sunday outing against the Lightning.
The Vancouver Canucks are leading the Northwest Division partly because of the league’s second-best power play at 26.8 percent. The Canucks have scored 15 goals in 56 chances. Defensively, Vancouver ranks 11th on the penalty kill by yielding eight markers in the 55 times it has been shorthanded (85.4 percent).
Vancouver has a light weekend schedule, with just a Saturday game in Toronto against the Maple Leafs.
Though the salary cap has depleted the Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks’ roster, they still have enough firepower to enter the weekend with the league’s third best power play unit. Joel Quenneville’s troops have netted 15 power play goals in 58 chances for a 25.9 percent success rate.
But Chicago’s penalty killing unit has struggled so far by yielding 11 goals during the 57 times it has been shorthanded. The unit ranks a poor 20th at 80.7 percent. The Hawks will play back-to-back games this weekend, starting with Saturday’s affair at Nashville and ending with Sunday’s home game against the Anaheim Ducks.
The St. Louis Blues have skated off to a sizzling start at 9-2-3, good enough to tie for the top spot in the Central Division. However, they don’t have the power play to thank for that quick beginning. The Blues rank next-to-last by converting on just 7-of-66 chances with the man advantage for a dismal 10.6 percent.
However, the Blues have kept the puck out of their own net when they have been shorthanded. They have allowed just seven goals in 54 chances for an 87 percent success rate, which ranks sixth. St. Louis has only a Saturday encounter at Phoenix on its weekend schedule.
It’s a shock to most hockey observers that the New Jersey Devils own the league’s poorest power play, but that might be one reason for them sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic Division standings with a 4-10-2 ledger.
The Devils have scored just four goals in 48 power play chances for a dismal 8.3 percent success rate. Things aren’t much better on the penalty kill. The Devils rank 18th in that category, yielding 10 goals in 57 shorthanded situations (82.5 percent). New Jersey has a Friday home game against Edmonton on its weekend schedule.
The Los Angeles Kings own the league’s best penalty killing unit, allowing just five power play goals during the 59 times they have been shorthanded (91.5 percent). They have used that stingy defense to forge into first place in the Pacific Division with a sparkling 11-3-0 record.
The Kings will take a five-game winning streak and a perfect 7-0 home ledger into Saturday’s home game against the New York Islanders.
The league’s poorest penalty killing unit belongs to an Edmonton Oilers squad that is sitting in the Pacific Division basement with a 4-8-2 ledger. The Oilers, with the fifth youngest team in the league, have surrendered a whopping 20 power play goals during the 63 times they have been shorthanded (68.2 percent).
The Oilers will conclude their five-game road excursion with a Friday contest in New Jersey and a Sunday affair in New York against the Rangers.