What bettors need to know: Hockey Night In Canada
By DUSTIN NIELSON
Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins (N/A)
A chink in the armor
The Pittsburgh Penguins are finally finding a way to get to Simeon Varlamov. While the Russian rookie can’t be blamed for all five of the goals in Game 4, there certainly were a few he would have liked to have back.
Late in Game 3 Penguins forward Maxim Talbot leaned over to Sidney Crosby and said, “Varlamov is a good goalie, but I think we can beat him.” Talbot walked the walk in Game 4, scoring the insurance marker late in the third period.
Varlamov did answer the bell the last time his team was trying to avoid a three-game losing streak. After the Capitals lost two in a row to open the playoffs against the Rangers, Varlamov made 33 saves in a shutout effort so look for him to be poised and ready for Game 5.
Love the over
The Penguins offense continues to gain momentum mostly because Sidney Crosby’s supporting cast has decided to show up. If Washington can’t tighten things up defensively, bettors may see the rest of the series follow in the path of Game 4 and every single regular-season meeting between the two clubs - run and gun.
The two clubs have finished over the total in 16 of their last 21 meetings including 11 of 13 in Washington. Overall this year, six of the eight contests have finished over and the two games that didn’t missed it by just a single goal.
Back to back
Playing back-to-back games in the postseason is almost unheard of in the past decade but the Capitals and Penguins will do it again Saturday night. After some bad blood late in Game 4, that intensity could continue into Game 5 and if either team loses their cool there could be some early power-play opportunities.
Playing on no rest seems to be a slight advantage for the Capitals. Not only are the Caps at home for Game 5 they also were 7-6 in back-to-back situations this year while the Penguins finished 5-8 in that scenario.
Gonchar out?
The biggest developing story line heading into Game 5 will be the status of Sergei Gonchar. Gonchar was helped off the ice after a knee-on-knee hit by Alexander Ovechkin Friday and there is now word if he will be ready for Saturday.
“I tried to hit him with my shoulder and he just moved left and his legs were in the same position,” Ovechkin told reporters following the Game 4.
Pens coach Dan Bylsma didn’t agree with Ovechkin’s assessment of the play.
“I think it was knee cap on knee cap, the league reviews these things and will see what happens,” Bylsma told the press.
According to TSN hockey analyst Bob MacKenzie, the play has been reviewed by the league and no disciplinary action will be taken.
Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks (-150, 5)
Change of scenery, change of style
As the series shifts back to Vancouver, bettors may see another shift in the style of play. The two games on the West Coast turned out to be run and gun while the two in Chicago were, for the lack of a better term, boring.
The total in the first two games was set at five goals but after the two teams crushed it by combining for 17 goals, the line moved up to 5.5 for Game 3. The slow pace in Chicago led to just four goals in Game 3 and that dropped the line back down to five for Game 4.
Now as they head back to Vancouver the total remains at five and doesn’t really reflect the 17 combined goals we saw in the opening games.
In-play advantage
If you plan on betting live or in between periods during the game you may want to cheer for Vancouver to strike first. A goal for the Canucks would certainly increase the value on the Hawks as they have been great in the comeback department so far this postseason.
Vancouver has scored the first goal in all four games but the Hawks have managed to comeback and tie it up three times and went on to win twice. Chicago at +130 is pretty tempting as it is, but if you wait for them to fall behind by one you could really cash in if the comeback kids strike again.
The 2-goal spread
It’s hard to believe but Game 4 was the first time in their eight meetings this season that the Hawks and Canucks played a one-goal game.
The weird stat of the day is that in six of the eight games, the underdog sitting on a puckline of +1.5 easily covered the spread and actually won the game by two goals or more.
Beat up Canucks
Vancouver’s offense hasn’t been nearly as potent in the past two games and that is in large part due to the absence of Sami Salo on the back end.
Salo had six points in five games before being sidelined lower body injury. Salo is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game. Kevin Bieksa is probable for Saturday while Pavol Demitra is not expected to be ready.
Hockey Today
SCOREBOARD
Saturday, May 9
Pittsburgh at Washington (7 p.m. EDT). Pittsburgh beat Washington 5-3 on Friday night to tie the Eastern Conference semifinal series 2-2.
STARS
Friday
— Eric Staal(notes), Hurricanes, had two goals to break the club career playoff scoring record in Carolina’s 4-1 home victory over Boston. Carolina leads the Eastern Conference semifinal series 3-1.
— Sidney Crosby(notes), Penguins, had a goal and an assist in Pittsburgh’s 5-3 home victory over Washington. The Eastern Conference semifinal series is tied at 2.
WORLDS
Konstantin Gorovikov scored a power-play goal with 1:47 left to give Russia a 3-2 victory over the United States on Friday in the world semifinals in Bern, Switzerland. Defending champion Russia will face Canada in the final Sunday. Derek Roy(notes) scored twice in Canada’s 3-1 victory over Sweden.
SCOUTING
Taylor Hall helped Windsor advance to the Memorial Cup, scoring on a power play 2:09 into overtime to give the Spitfires a 2-1 victory over the Brampton Battalion and a 4-1 series win in the Ontario Hockey League finals. Andrew Engelage made 37 saves for the Spitfires, 16-4 in the playoffs after finishing a league-best 57-10-0-1. … In the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, Maxime Macenauer(notes) scored a short-handed goal and the Shawinigan Cataractes beat Drummondville 4-1 to cut the Voltigeurs’ series lead to 3-2.
SPEAKING
“Alex is only human, he can’t be unbelievable every night. He’s a great player, he just had one of those nights where he’s not going to get three goals.”—Washington coach Bruce Boudreau after Alex Ovechkin had only two shots on goal and failed to score in the Capitals’ 5-3 loss in Pittsburgh on Friday night.
“I think our team has probably picked the worst time of the year to play their worst hockey. When you look at the whole team right now, there isn’t anybody that has played up to their potential. … You can see the frustration on the players right now, and it’s certainly getting worse. This is something that has to be resolved before next game, and we don’t have much time to do that.”—Boston coach Claude Julien after the Bruins’ 4-1 loss in Carolina on Friday night. After opening the playoffs with five straight victories, the Bruins have lost three in a row for a 3-1 series deficit.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals
Sidney Crosby scored his playoff-leading ninth goal in the Penguins 5-3 win over the Capitals in Game 4 on Friday, and evened the Eastern Conference semifinal at two games apiece. The Penguins won the game as -165 favorites, and the eight goals sailed OVER the posted over/under (5.5).
Sergei Gonchar, Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, and Max Talbot with the insurance marker also tallied for the Penguins.
Nicklas Backstrom, Chris Clark, and Milan Jurcina replied for the Capitals, who were +145 underdogs.
Team records:
Pittsburgh: 45-28-9
Washington: 50-24-8
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 7-3
Before playing Ottawa are 6-4
After playing Washington are 8-2
After a win are 6-4
Washington most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing Calgary are 4-6
After playing Pittsburgh are 5-5
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games when playing on the road against Washington
Pittsburgh is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Pittsburgh is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington's last 13 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Next up:
Washington at Pittsburgh, Monday, May 11
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Vancouver Canucks
Martin Havlat tied the game at 17:16 of the third period and Andrew Ladd potted the OT winner as the Blackhawks edged the Canucks 3-2 in Game 4 on Thursday. The Blackhawks won that game as -155 favorites, and the five goals went as a PUSH against the posted over/under (5).
Nikolai Khabibulin stopped 14-of-15 shots for the for the Blackhawks, who evened the Western Conference semifinal series 2-2.
Darcy Hordichuk scored the only Canucks goal, while Roberto Luongo made 26 saves in a losing effort. Oddsmakers had the Canucks as +135 underdogs in that contest.
Team records:
Chicago: 46-24-12
Vancouver: 45-27-10
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 2-8
Before playing Edmonton are 7-3
After playing Vancouver are 7-3
After a win are 6-4
Vancouver most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing San Jose are 6-4
After playing Chicago are 5-5
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
Chicago is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Vancouver
Chicago is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Vancouver is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
Vancouver is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Vancouver is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Chicago
Vancouver is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Chicago
Next up:
Vancouver at Chicago, Monday, May 11
PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Pittsburgh is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington's last 13 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Washington is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing Pittsburgh
CHICAGO vs. VANCOUVER
Chicago is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Vancouver is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Chicago
Vancouver is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Chicago