Pivotal Game 5
By Judd Hall
It wasn’t too long ago that it looked like the Red Wings were going to steamroll Pittsburgh for the second straight year in the Stanley Cup Final. Now it appears that Detroit is just trying to catch its breath in what has become a best two-out-of-three series.
The Penguins looked as though they were going to be in the similar 3-1 hole heading back to the Motor City after 21 minutes when the Wings held a 2-1 lead.
Detroit appeared to have the dagger polished up and ready to go when they were on a power play with 12 minutes remaining. But Jordan Staal got a hold of the puck and put it past Chris Osgood to tie the score at 2-2.
Pittsburgh controlled the game from there on out. Sidney Crosby got off the schneid with his first goal of the final thanks to a brilliant feed from Evgeni Malkin. And Tyler Kennedy sealed the deal with an exceptional score off a tic-tac-toe play from Crosby and Chris Kunitz.
So instead of maybe a 3-1 win for the Wings, Pittsburgh cashed in tickets as a $1.30 home “chalk” in another 4-2 victory. And they cashed in on the puck line again, this time giving a plus-200 (risk $100 to win $200). The puck line has been extremely lucrative during the Stanley Cup Final as the favorites have covered in all four matches.
Marc-Andre Fleury definitely got his confidence back in Game 4 as he stopped 37 of the 39 shots on goal the Red Wings took. That includes some spectacular saves that Fleury was able to make in the third period.
You wouldn’t know it from the fact that he gave up four goals on 31 shots, but Chris Osgood played a great game between the pipes for Detroit. The defense in front of him, on the other hand, didn’t give him much help.
In the last two games, the Red Wings have opened strong in the first and majority of the second periods. That’s evidenced by a 54-22 shot advantage in that time. Yet when you go from the second to the third act, you’ll see that Pittsburgh has 5-1 goal advantage in Game 3 and 4.
Anytime you have a goal differential like that, you’re going to see one team not being able to play a full 60 minutes. Henrik Zetterberg is a perfect example of this. He has been draped all over Crosby during this series. Midway through Game 4, Zetterberg was noticeably a step slower. The most obvious moment came on the Kennedy goal as he got to the puck before Crosby, but turned it over immediately and couldn’t catch up to the speed.
Detroit’s head coach Mike Babcock has noticed this and will not have them do a morning skate on Saturday. Will that keep their legs fresh? Who knows, but it’s a start. And there is the added benefit of knowing Pavel Datsyuk is confirmed to get ice time in Game 5…of course, he also proclaimed he was playing on Thursday night.
The betting shops aren’t shying away from the Red Wings for this game by installing them as $1.55 home favorites with a total of 5 ½ that is shading towards the ‘over’ at minus-120 (risk $120 to win $100).
Bettors can definitely take heart in knowing that Detroit has won both Game 5s they’ve played during this year’s playoffs and 6-2 in the last postseasons.
You’re getting a little better value on the ‘under’ here at what is looking like EVEN money across the board after the high scores of Games 3 & 4. We must keep in mind that the ‘under’ hit in the first two games of this showdown and is 9-2 for the playoffs for the Wings at Joe Louis Arena.
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: Stanley Cup finals Game 5
By Alex Smart
Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings (-150)
Sid the Kid
Arguably, the biggest name in hockey, Sidney Crosby, has risen to the challenge of facing off with Hockey Town. A spectacular Game 4 performance has sent the Stanley Cup finals back to Joe Louis Arena tied 2-2.
With his back against the wall, Crosby finally got in the scorebook, tallying an assist to go along with his second period goal.
"The last couple have been desperation [games] for us," Crosby told reporters. "It's going to be like that all the way through."
Crosby’s goal was his first against Detroit since the two teams met in a 7-6 overtime win for the Penguins at home in November - which begs the assumption: If Sid scores, the Pens can't lose.
Home sweet home
After opening Game 4 with a 1-1 tie into the first intermission, Pittsburgh exploded for three goals in the second period and held off a strong Red Wings’ attack in the third.
For those who played the under, assuming that both teams would not combine to top the 5.5-goal total, that strong second period caused many unhappy campers. Previously, the under had been 10-3 for the Red Wings when facing the Eastern Conference.
Lucky enough, the under still bodes well for Detroit fans. The Under is 4-0 in the last four Red Wings home games, as well as home games where the Wings are favored. Goalie Chris Osgood has allowed seven goals in the back-to-back road losses while only giving up two goals the Detroit’s two home wins.
Far from melancholy
If the entertainment value was ever in question concerning the Stanley Cup finals, no game has been more exciting than Game 4.
Obviously the excitement weighs heavily towards Pittsburgh thanks to the raucous atmosphere provided by another Pennsylvania White-Out. When Jordan Staal scored on a shorthanded goal at 8:35 of the second period, Mellon Arena went absolutely crazy.
"That was a big momentum changer for us," said Maxime Talbot, who assisted on the play. "The building was so loud, it gave us a lot of emotion."
Staal’s was the first of three second period goals, marking the 17th time the Penguins have scored three goals or more in this year's playoffs. The over had been kind to the Pens as well, playing to a 4-1 record in Pittsburgh's last five home games. Hitting the road shouldn't hurt the Penguins either, as the over/under is 27-21 when traveling.
Visions of greatness
Evgeni Malkin opened scoring in Game 4 with a power-play goal at 2:39 of the first period. In the second, Malkin assisted on Sidney Crosby's goal, pushing his points total to 35 - more than any player since Wayne Gretzky in 1993.
It was the 12th time Crosby and Malkin have each notched multi-point games in this postseason. That pace is now second all-time to the Great One and Mario Lemieux, who each recorded 14 in 1988 and 1991 respectively.
With the efforts in Game 4, Pittsburgh is now 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against the Western Conference. Aside from trying to capture Lord Stanley's Cup, Malkin is also trying to become the first player since Lemieux (1992) to lead the NHL in both regular season and playoff scoring.
Datsyuk watch
Heading into Game 4, there were conflicting reports surrounding the status of Detroit’s leading scorer Pavel Datsyuk. Many news sources indicated the Hart Trophy nominee was returning to action and appeared to be correct when he took the ice for pregame warm-ups.
However, after a few trips around the ice, Datsyuk was scratched from the lineup. He hasn’t played since Game 2 of the Western Conference finals due to what could be a broken foot. According to the Red Wings, Datsyuk was a game scratch before he even took the ice Thursday night and his status for Game 5 is very much up in the air.
"It was a smart move," Detroit centre Henrik Zetterberg told reporters. "Definitely, he wasn't ready or he would've played."
The training staff gave Datsyuk the green light Friday and Red Wings bettors are anxious to get their star back after watching the team’s offense struggle to match Pittsburgh’s production. Before his injury he had one goals and six assists in the playoffs.
"We're hoping to have him back in the next game," Detroit captain Nicklas Lidstrom told the media of Datsyuk’s presence. "We didn't know if he was going to show up tonight for the game.
"It was questionable. But if he comes back for the next one, he just adds that extra dimension to our team.
"He works really hard defensively. He's just tough to play against."
Notables
The favorite is 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings.
Detroit is 14-5 in its last 19 Stanley Cup finals games.
The home team is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head contests.
The under is 4-0 in the Red Wings' last four games as a home favorite.
Pittsburgh is 2-6 in its last eight games in Detroit.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Detroit Red Wings
Sidney Crosby potted his 15th goal of the postseason in Game 4 on Thursday as the Penguins defeated the Red Wings 4-2.
The Penguins won that game as -135 favorites, and the six goals made it OVER the posted over/under (5.5).
Evgeni Malkin scored on the power play, and Jordan Staal netted a shorthanded marker for the Pens. Tyler Kennedy added an insurance marker, while Marc-Andre Fleury made 37 saves in the win.
Darren Helm and Brad Stuart replied for the Red Wings. Chris Osgood stopped 27 shots in a losing effort.
Team records:
Pittsburgh: 45-28-9
Detroit: 51-21-10
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 7-3
Before playing Ottawa are 6-4
After playing Detroit are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 8-2
Before playing Edmonton are 6-4
After playing Pittsburgh are 6-4
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Next up:
Detroit at Pittsburgh, Tuesday, June 9
PITTSBURGH (59-34-0-10, 128 pts.) at DETROIT (65-25-0-12, 142 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 90-36 ATS (+0.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
DETROIT is 56-18 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 120-85 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 81-49 ATS (+18.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 67-52 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 29-15 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 8-5 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 8-5-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.9 Units)
Stanley Cup Finals
Pittsburgh at Detroit
Pittsburgh:
9-1 Under off BB wins by 2+ goals
4-7 SU at Detroit
Detroit:
22-3 SU at home off an Over
111-48 SU as home favorite of -200 or less
PITTSBURGH vs. DETROIT
Pittsburgh is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Detroit
Pittsburgh is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home