Western Conference Final Outlook
By Judd Hall
No. 2 Detroit Red Wings vs. No. 4 Chicago Blackhawks
Series Price: Detroit -200, Chicago +170
Series Format: Detroit, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: It’s been a while since Blackhawks fans could wear their team’s sweater with confidence in the Windy City, but they’re doing it now. And you’d be hard pressed to find someone to say that Chicago doesn’t have a reasonable shot at its first Stanley Cup Final in over 20 years.
Chicago was able to dispatch the Canucks in six games thanks in large part not having to depend on its top talent. Instead, the Blackhawks saw output from all four of their forward lines. Patrick Kane put in six goals in the second round (three coming in the series clincher). Yet Jonathan Toews had just two scores against Vancouver. Martin Havlat put in a pair of lamp lighters in Round 2, as did Dustin Byfuglien.
The Blackhawks were especially adept at scoring with the man advantage. They lead all playoff clubs with 15 power play goals in 51 chances. The penalty kill unit, on the other hand, is not firing on all cylinders with a 79.5 percent success rate.
Regardless of the special teams play in front of him, Nikolai Khabibulin will have to step up his play in the conference final. Chicago’s netminder exorcised some demons by getting past the Canucks, but he still only stopped 87.3 percent of their shots on goal. But you can’t underestimate what it means to have a goaltender that has won a Stanley Cup.
While Chicago is coming into this series well rested, the Red Wings enter their third straight Western Conference Final battered and bruised.
Detroit took every blow that the Ducks could muster in its seven game battle, but they advanced thanks to going four lines deep. Johan Franzen is showing why the Wings signed him to an 11-year contract extension by leading the club with eight goals in the playoffs…six of which came in the second round. Henrik Zetterberg has found the back of the net six times, while the usually offensive-minded Pavel Datsyuk has just one goal to his credit in the postseason.
One thing that the Red Wings can say that without any hesitation is that they have the best defensive corp remaining in the playoffs. This club has given up just 13 even strength goals in the 11 postseason tilts they’ve played.
The Wings have also seen Chris Osgood make good on General Manager Ken Holland’s guarantee that he would play just fine when the playoffs started. Osgood stopped only 89 percent of the shots he saw in the regular season. Now he’s the owner of a .921 save percentage in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Gambling Notes: The Blackhawks finished up the season series with a 2-2-2 mark. Not bad, really…but a little misleading. Chicago’s two victories came in the final weekend of the regular season campaign. Two matches that the Red Wings had nothing to gain and used those meetings to rest up.
What would worry me right out of the gate is how Chicago will perform after being away from competitive play since May 9. But it’s hard to argue with the Blackhawks’ 7-2-1 record when playing on more than three days of rest.
As far as taking the Red Wings at home in this series, it’s just not worth it. They went 3-7 in their final 10 regular season tests, but are 5-1 in the playoffs. Still not worth the puck line play as they’re just 3-3 in six postseason matches at Joe Louis Arena.
In the “maybe stats lie” department, we have Chicago’s Khabibulin. The Blackhawks’ goalie has a lifetime 15-21-6 mark with 3.18 goals against average and 90.6 save percentage. In the last two seasons, however, “The Bulin Wall” is 6-3-1 with a 2.69 GAA and he’s stopped 92.3 percent of the Red Wings’ shots on goal.
As far as totals, try to get on the ‘over’ when the total is set at 5 ½. In the three games that the total was set at 5 ½, they averaged a combined score of 10. And if we see a lot of power plays, high scores will be the order given the issues on the PK for both sides.
Outlook: Whatever preconceived notions we’ve had about young teams can be thrown out the window when it comes to the Blackhawks. They dispatched a quality team in Calgary and surprised me completely by ousting Roberto Luongo’s Canucks.
Yet this isn’t a young team the ‘Hawks will play. No team in the Frozen Four has the experience that rests on Detroit’s bench.
Look for Osgood to stay strong in goal as the Red Wings offensive firepower gets past a porous Chicago defense. It’ll be fun, but Detroit wins this meeting of old school versus new school in five games.
vegasinsider.com
NHL Western Conference finals preview and pick
By Jon Campbell
Chicago Blackhawks (+180) vs. Detroit Red Wings (-190)
Detroit Red Wings coach Mike Babcock called it the toughest series he’s ever been a part of. Fans called it great hockey. Wings bettors just breathed a sigh of relief.
The end result is the Stanley Cup favorites and defending champs are still alive and on their way to the conference finals against a familiar divisional rival, the Chicago Blackhawks. Detroit needed seven tough games to dispense the Anaheim Ducks in a series that concluded with a hard-earned 4-3 victory Wednesday night.
The heavily favored Wings had more trouble than they would have liked against the eighth seed in the West, yet are once again set as the sizeable favorite in the third round (-190). Maybe that’s because Detroit managed to get through a tough series in spite of the fact its typical superstars weren’t filling up score sheets.
Marian Hossa didn’t score in six of the seven games against the Ducks and league MVP candidate Pavel Datsyuk didn’t score at all. Instead, it was guys with names like Hudler, Cleary, Franzen and Filppula who led the way.
And that’s the trouble about beating Detroit. The Wings are deeper than Donald Trump’s pockets.
They rank second in the playoffs on the power play (26.4 percent), scoring (3.64 goals per game) and they’re getting great goaltending from an often overlooked Chris Osgood. The Wings rank second in the postseason in goals against with just 2.18 per game.
With that in mind, if there is a team they should be worried about, it might be Chicago. The Blackhawks have the top power play and are the top scoring team these playoffs. You’ll recognize the poolies out there who drafted plenty of Hawks because they’re the ones spending money like the economy is booming.
Marty Havlat and Patrick Kane both have 13 points and four other Chicago players have at least nine points these playoffs. As you might expect, the over has turned a profit at 7-5 in Hawks games so far but they can forget about the 5-goal totals they were seeing against Vancouver last round.
The Wings and Hawks didn’t see an over/under lower than 5.5 goals in their six meetings this season, which they split at 2-2-2. They scored a combined 41 goals in those clashes, an average of nearly seven per game not including shootout goals.
Home ice wasn’t a huge factor between these clubs this year, with the home side winning only three times. That should help make for some strong underdog value on the Blackhawks in the first two games of this series. Heavily dogged Chicago should also be well rested and facing a Detroit club that’s coming off a bruising series.
Don’t be surprised if these clubs head back to Chicago with the series all square, but from there the Red Wings should be able to take over. Chicago has a smoking power play but the Hawks can’t expect to get the same number of extra-man attacks against a much more disciplined club this series.
They also can’t expect to bully the Wings like they did against the Flames and Canucks. Detroit showed it can handle every bit of the physical game after a nasty series with Anaheim.
Series pick: Detroit 4-2
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Detroit Red Wings
Jonathan Toews scored two goals, including the winner in the third period to lift the Blackhawks over the Canucks 7-5 to win their Western Conference semifinal series 4-2 on Monday night.
Chicago cashed as -175 home favorites as the game played over the 5-goal total posted by oddsmakers.
Daniel Cleary scored at 7:37 of the third period to help the Red Wings defeat the Ducks 4-3 in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semifinal last time out, as -250 favorites. The game's seven goals made it OVER the posted over/under (5.5).
Jiri Hudler, Darren Helm, and Mikael Samuelsson scored for the Red Wings. Chris Osgood made 24 saves in the win.
Team records:
Chicago: 46-24-12
Detroit: 51-21-10
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
Before playing Edmonton are 7-3
After playing Vancouver are 8-2
After a win are 6-4
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 4-6
Before playing Edmonton are 6-4
After playing Anaheim are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Detroit is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Next up:
Detroit home to Chicago, Tuesday, May 19
Western Conference Finals
Chicago at Detroit
Chicago:
3-8 SU at Detroit
10-3 Over Away off home win
Detroit:
22-2 SU at home off home win scoring 4+ goals
40-9 SU at home off home game
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago