Thursday's Best NHL Bets
Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals (-275, 6)
The Montreal Canadiens are clear underdogs in their first round matchup against the Washington Capitals, but you wouldn’t know it by listening to what Thomas Plekanec has to say about Washington’s goaltending situation.
“It’s not as though we are facing (Martin) Brodeur or (Ryan Miller)”, Plekanec told La Presse. “They don’t have a dominant goaltender. When you look at the goaltending matchup in this series it favors our team. I just believe that our goaltending is more solid than theirs.
“I’m not saying their goalies are bad. I’m just saying our goalies are better.”
Statistically speaking, Plekanec does have a point. The Canadiens’ likely starter, Jaroslav Halak (.924 save percentage, 2.40 goals against average), performed better than Capitals starter Jose Theodore (.911 save percentage, 2.82 goals against average) during the regular season.
And who can forget Theodore’s lackluster performance in the first game of the playoffs last year, surrendering four goals on 21 shots to the New York Rangers and getting bench for the next 13 playoff games.
But Halak clearly lacks postseason experience. His three career playoff outings pale in comparison to Theodore’s 49, which includes a series win over the top-seeded Boston Bruins while he was still with the Habs.
To make matters worse, the Capitals and the Canadiens boast the two best power plays in the NHL. In the four meeting between these two teams this season, a total of 28 goals were scored, eight of those coming on the man advantage.
Pick: Over
Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks (-200, 5.5)
The Vancouver Canucks may have the most prolific offense in the Western Conference, but their back end has been a source of concern for some time.
The defense should welcome Shane O’Brien back from a mild shoulder injury, but will be without Willie Mitchell and Brad Lukowich. Aaron Rome and Sami Salo are both listed as questionable for Thursday’s game, although the always enigmatic Salo claims he’s doing just fine.
“Was there something wrong with me?” Salo told reporters when asked about the undisclosed injury that kept him out of the last two games of the regular season. “That was you guys who made it up. Personal reasons. Everything’s good. Something came up. I couldn’t play against Calgary (on Saturday), but everything has all settled down. There wasn’t an injury if you guys want to know that.”
This wouldn’t be the first time Salo has tried to dupe reporters. During the 2007 playoffs, he told the media he had the flu even though head coach Alain Vigneault admitted he was suffering from a torso injury.
With or without Salo in the lineup Thursday, the Kings will look to take advantage of Vancouver’s depleted defensive unit. They did just that the last time the two teams met, earning an 8-3 win at the Staples Center.
Los Angeles might be a little nervous early in its first postseason appearance since 2002, but should still be able to stick with the Canucks.
Pick: Kings
MONTREAL (39-33-0-10, 88 pts.) at WASHINGTON (54-16-0-12, 120 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 19-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 23-8 ATS (+23.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
WASHINGTON is 24-34 ATS (-30.9 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 7-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-5 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-5-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.5 Units)
BOSTON (39-30-0-13, 91 pts.) at BUFFALO (45-28-0-9, 99 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 39-43 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 51-48 ATS (-13.5 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 206-144 ATS (+12.5 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
BUFFALO is 11-3 ATS (+7.3 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 10-10-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
13 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.3 Units)
LOS ANGELES (46-27-0-9, 101 pts.) at VANCOUVER (49-28-0-5, 103 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 25-12 ATS (+25.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
VANCOUVER is 18-6 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOS ANGELES is 46-36 ATS (+4.5 Units) in all games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 22-13 ATS (+37.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 this season.
LOS ANGELES is 11-6 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.
VANCOUVER is 22-33 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 149-152 ATS (-71.5 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 7-5-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.1 Units)
BOSTON vs. BUFFALO
Boston is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boston's last 11 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 11 games when playing at home against Boston
MONTREAL vs. WASHINGTON
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games at home
Washington is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home
LOS ANGELES vs. VANCOUVER
Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vancouver
Vancouver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vancouver's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
MONTREAL at WASHINGTON
MONTREAL: 9-2 Under off 3+ losses
WASHINGTON: 23-8 SU playing with revenge
BOSTON at BUFFALO
BOSTON: 7-13 SU off a road win
BUFFALO: 19-7 SU off a combined score of 4 goals or less
LOS ANGELES at VANCOUVER
LOS ANGELES: 12-5 Over after allowing 1 or 0 goals
VANCOUVER: 9-0 SU at home after losing 2 of their last 3 games
NHL News and Notes
Washington won five of last six games overall; they're 6-3 in last nine vs Montreal; teams split four games this year. Canadiens lost four of last five games in this building. Caps have won one playoff series since '98, so lot of pressure on them; Montreal is 4-2 in last six first round series. Habs backed into playoffs with 3-8 finish to the regular season, losing season finale at home to Toronto, but once you get in playoffs, anything can happen. Just ask the Avalanche, who upset Sharks Wednesday.
Bruins won one playoff series (LY) in last eight years; they're 8-4 in last 12 games, winning last three while allowing total of six goals. Boston lost five of last seven visits to Buffalo (won two of last three). Bruins are 4-2 vs Buffalo this year, with total of 20 goals being scored in last four tilts. Sabres missed playoffs last two years, after losing in semifinals the two years before that. Buffalo lost four of its last six games overall.
Kings are in playoffs for first time since 2002; they're 4-7 in last eleven games, 2-7 in last nine games against Canucks, losing last four visits to Vancouver by combined score of 12-4. LA did whack Canucks 8-3 in the last series meeting April 1. Vancouver is 5-7 in last 12 games; they're 3-1 in last four first round series, 4-1 in last five home games overall. Seven of last nine series games stayed under the total.