Thursday's Best NHL Bets
Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins (-300, 5.5)
Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins may have taken advantage of their opportunities, but the Ottawa Senators really beat themselves in Monday night’s 7-4 loss by committing turnovers and racking up the penalty minutes. This allowed Pittsburgh to score five second-period goals and escape Scotiabank Place with a 3-1 series lead.
After the game, a frustrated Ottawa club pointed the finger at the referees for making bad calls.
“You guys all saw the game”, Senators coach Cory Clouston told the Ottawa Sun after the game. “I just think there were some inconsistencies. We have to be better at handling adversity, but it seemed like what was being called in one situation wasn’t being called in another.”
That may be true, but the Sens couldn’t afford to lose their cool in this must-win Game 4 and they did. The main culprit was Chris Neil, who spent a whopping 16 minutes in the penalty box including two minutes for hitting Kris Letang right after scoring a goal.
We should be in store for another wild and crazy game when these teams head to Pittsburgh for Game 5 Thursday. A total of 29 goals have been scored so far in this series with the over cashing in three of those four games.
Pick: Over
Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators (+135, 5)
The Nashville Predators proved they can win without leading scorer Patric Hornqvist, who missed his second straight game with an upper-body injury Monday night. The Preds dominated Chicago throughout their 4-1 Game 3 victory and had seven guys show up on the score sheet.
“It’s a change”, defenseman Shea Weber, who scored Nashville’s third goal, told the Tennessean. “Obviously he’s our best scorer this year. It hurts missing him. He’s a tough piece to fill, but guys did a great job stepping up and scoring in all situations.”
Nashville was able to neutralize the Hawks with physical play and strong defense. The Preds out-hit Chicago 32-18 and set the tone early when Weber crushed Patrick Kane less than two minutes into Monday night’s action.
And the Hawks’ usually potent offense just wasn’t able to get anything going. Kane and Jonathan Toews only managed one shot on net each while Marian Hossa had one assist and remains scoreless in the series.
“We can’t be pleased with the way we played”, Hawks coach Joel Quenneville told the Chicago Tribune. “They were definitely the harder working team, more resilient (and) more desperate. For whatever the reasons, (we) definitely didn’t achieve what we wanted to going into the game.”
Expect the Hawks’ stars to bounce back and take control of Thursday’s game to tie the series before heading home for Game 5.
Pick: Blackhawks
On the Brink
By Judd Hall
Every game in the Stanley Cup Playoffs are do or die. But Thursday’s slate of action has two tests where teams are literally playing for their playoff lives. The Senators and Devils are both down three-games-to-one and facing elimination on Thursday night 7:05 p.m. EDT.
Ottawa finds itself facing the precipice after a 7-4 setback as a $1.10 home underdog in Game 4 on April 20 to the Penguins. Things weren’t going well for the Sens from the start as netminder Brian Elliot got lit up for four goals on 19 shots in 26 minutes of work. Pascal Leclaire didn’t fare much better between the pipes in giving up three goals on 23 shots.
We could pinpoint the fact that the Senators are still relatively young (average age around 28-years old), but the special teams is their culprit. Ottawa was able to stop 84.3 percent of the power plays they faced during the regular season. In four playoff games, the Sens have allowed Pittsburgh to scored five power play goals on 19 chances.
The betting shops aren’t giving the Sens much of a chance to push this back to Scotiabank Place. Pittsburgh has been installed as a heavy $2.90 home favorite (risk $290 to win $100) with a total of 5 ½. A plus side for Ottawa fans is they can get plus-262 back on their team to force Game 6.
There isn’t much reason for optimism for Ottawa to make the miraculous comeback. They’ve forced a Game 7 after going down 3-1 just once in franchise history (2003 East Final vs. New Jersey). What gamblers need to keep in mind is the Sens are 4-6 in their last 10 elimination games, covering the puck line in six of those contests. The ‘under’ is 7-3 as well.
New Jersey will also be holding on for dear life on Thursday night at home against the Flyers. “Fight” might not be the best word to describe the Devils’ chances at the present.
The Devils find themselves dangerously close to their third straight first round exit after falling 4-1 to Philadelphia as $1.10 road faves in Game 4. Martin Brodeur had a bad night, stopping just 24 of 28 shots on goal.
Brodeur hasn’t been his usual self against the Flyers in this series, posting a shoddy .886 save percentage. Of course, you can’t blame him for the lack of offensive firepower New Jersey has displayed. The Devils were scoring 2.60 goals per game during the regular season. In four postseason games, they have averaged 2.22 GPG.
Zach Parise led the Devs with 38 goals during the regular season, but visited the red lamp district once in the playoffs. Ilya Kovalchuk has found the back of the net twice against Philly…that’s two more than Jamie Langenbrunner in the playoffs. Langenbrunner has been quite disappointing considering that he had 19 goals in the regular season.
Most betting outlets believe that New Jersey will live to fight another day by installing them as a $1.66 home favorite (risk $166 to win $100) with a total of five.
The Devils have been a stellar wager when posted as home favorites after a loss as road faves this season, going 5-1 in this situation. Of course, that flies squarely in the fact that NJ is 3-5 SU and on the puck line in its last eight elimination games.
vegasinsider.com
Philadelphia Flyers vs. New Jersey Devils
The Philadelphia Flyers and the New Jersey Devils will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Prudential Center.
Daniel Briere's second period tally stood up as the winner, as the Flyers downed the Devils 4-1 in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinals series on Tuesday night.
Philadelphia won as a -110 home pick 'em, while the game resulted in a PUSH on the 5-goal total listed by oddsmakers.
Briere added two assists for the Flyers, who got two goals and an assist from Jeff Carter in the win.
Ilya Kovalchuk netted the lone marker for New Jersey, which now trails Philadelphia 3-1 in the best-of-seven series.
Team records:
Philadelphia: 41-35-6
New Jersey: 48-27-7
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Tampa Bay are 6-4
After playing New Jersey are 7-3
After a win are 4-6
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Buffalo are 8-2
After playing Philadelphia are 3-7
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Jersey
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
Philadelphia is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
New Jersey is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games at home
New Jersey is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Next up:
New Jersey at Philadelphia, Sunday, April 25
Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Ottawa Senators and the Pittsburgh Penguins will both be gunning for a victory on Thursday when they meet at Mellon Arena.
Sidney Crosby had two goals and two assists to lead the Penguins past the Senators 7-4 in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinals series on Tuesday night.
Pittsburgh cashed as -130 road favorites, while the game played OVER the 5.5-goal total set by sportsbooks.
Chris Kunitz posted a goal and two assists for the Penguins, who got three helpers from Sergei Gonchar in the win.
Matt Cullen finished with a goal and two assists for Ottawa, which now trails Pittsburgh 3-1 in the best-of-seven series.
Team records:
Ottawa: 44-32-6
Pittsburgh: 47-28-7
Ottawa most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Boston are 7-3
After playing Pittsburgh are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Ottawa are 7-3
After playing Ottawa are 7-3
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Ottawa is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Ottawa
Next up:
Pittsburgh at Ottawa, Saturday, April 24
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators
Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Thursday when the Chicago Blackhawks and the Nashville Predators meet at Bridgestone Arena.
David Legwand's marker early in the second period proved to be the winner, as the Predators clipped the Blackhawks 4-1 in Game 3 of their Western Conference quarterfinals series on Tuesday night.
Nashville cashed as +120 home underdogs, while the game resulted in a PUSH on the 5-goal total set by oddsmakers.
Legwand also had two assists for the Predators, who got a pair of helpers from Steve Sullivan in the win.
Tomas Kopecky netted the lone tally for Chicago, which now trails Nashville 2-1 in the best-of-seven series.
Team records:
Chicago: 52-22-8
Nashville: 47-29-6
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Edmonton are 5-5
After playing Nashville are 6-4
After a loss are 5-5
Nashville most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Minnesota are 8-2
After playing Chicago are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Chicago's last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games at home
Nashville is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Nashville is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Nashville's last 15 games
Next up:
Nashville at Chicago, Saturday, April 24
Colorado Avalanche vs. San Jose Sharks
The Colorado Avalanche and the San Jose Sharks will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at HP Pavilion.
Joe Pavelski potted the winner in overtime to lift the Sharks over the Avalanche 2-1 in Game 4 of their Western Conference quarterfinals series on Tuesday night.
San Jose cashed as -170 road favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 5.5-goal total posted by oddsmakers.
Pavelski added an assist in regulation for the Sharks, who got two helpers from Ryan Clowe in the win.
Paul Stastny scored for Colorado, as San Jose evened the best-of-seven series at two games apiece.
Team records:
Colorado: 43-30-9
San Jose: 51-20-11
Colorado most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Buffalo are 7-7-1
After playing San Jose are 3-7
After a loss are 4-6
San Jose most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing Toronto are 4-4-1
After playing Colorado are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Colorado's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 9 games when playing on the road against San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Colorado's last 16 games
San Jose is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
San Jose is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Jose's last 9 games when playing at home against Colorado
San Jose is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Next up:
San Jose at Colorado, Saturday, April 24
PHILADELPHIA (44-36-0-6, 94 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (49-29-0-8, 106 pts.)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 13-11 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 13-11-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
12 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.4 Units)
OTTAWA (45-35-0-6, 96 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (50-29-0-7, 107 pts.)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 11-9-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.4 Units)
CHICAGO (53-24-0-8, 114 pts.) at NASHVILLE (49-30-0-6, 104 pts.)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 13-10-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.6 Units)
COLORADO (45-30-0-11, 101 pts.) at SAN JOSE (53-21-0-12, 118 pts.)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 10-6 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 10-6-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.3 Units)
OTTAWA vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 11 games on the road
Ottawa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
PHILADELPHIA vs. NEW JERSEY
Philadelphia is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games at home
New Jersey is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
CHICAGO vs. NASHVILLE
Chicago is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Chicago's last 25 games on the road
Nashville is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Nashville's last 15 games
COLORADO vs. SAN JOSE
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 9 games when playing on the road against San Jose
San Jose is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
San Jose is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Eastern Conference Playoffs
First Round, Game Five (Philadelphia Leads, 3-1)
PHILADELPHIA at NEW JERSEY
PHILADELPHIA: 2-10 SU after winning 4 of their last 5 games
NEW JERSEY: 14-5 SU revenging a loss where they allowed 4+ goals
Eastern Conference Playoffs
First Round, Game Five (Pittsburgh Leads, 3-1)
OTTAWA at PITTSBURGH
OTTAWA: 9-22 SU away off a home loss
PITTSBURGH: 44-20 SU after allowing 4+ goals
Western Conference Playoffs
First Round, Game Four (Nashville Leads, 2-1)
CHICAGO at NASHVILLE
CHICAGO: 20-9 Over away after losing 2 of their last 3 games
NASHVILLE: 8-2 SU off 3+ division games
Western Conference Playoffs
First Round, Game Five (Series Tied, 2-2)
COLORADO at SAN JOSE
COLORADO: 19-7 Over playing with same-season revenge
SAN JOSE: 37-9 SU at home playing their third game in five days