Judgement Night
By Judd Hall
As if seeing Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin play in a Game 7 wasn’t enough, we’ll get another two grand finals on Thursday night. The Bruins and Red Wings will play host to Carolina and Anaheim respectively. Will home ice be enough to get Boston and Detroit through to the conference finals?
Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings
Let’s be honest: nobody gave the Ducks a shot at winning this series after getting whipped in Games 4 and 5. I certainly didn’t as Detroit dominated every aspect of those games.
In Game 6, however, Anaheim showed the heart of a champion by winning as a $1.30 home pup 2-1.
It was a total team effort for the Ducks to stave off elimination. Jonas Hiller was on his game by stopping 38 of the 39 shots he saw from the Wings. The defense in front of Hiller was the bigger star when head coach Randy Carlyle decided to put top blueliners Chris Pronger and Scott Neidermayer together to face Detroit’s front line of Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula and Marian Hossa.
The adjustment by Carlyle was aimed at helping Anaheim keep control of the real estate closest to Hiller. It’s fair to say that it worked to near perfection as just 10 of Detroit’s 39 shots were within 15 feet of the goal. The rest of the attempts by the Wings came from the back end of the attacking zone, never posing a real threat.
Detroit had done a great job of keeping the short range chances for the Ducks during Games 4 and 5. But the Wings couldn’t deny Anaheim the close range shots, most notably by Ryan Getzlaf on the power play and Corey Perry.
Now the scene shifts back to the Motor City, where the Wings are listed as heavy $2.40 home favorites with a total of 5 ½ by most betting shops. You can take Detroit to cover the puck line for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).
While that puck line play sounds great, it’s an iffy bet when you look at the Red Wings’ history in this spot. Detroit is just 3-3 in the six Game 7s they’ve played in franchise history. And the Wings are 7-4 in the last 11 elimination games they’ve had at Joe Louis Arena.
Anaheim has a positive mark in the ultimate final game, winning two of the three Game 7s they’ve played: The Ducks’ lone defeat coming on the road against New Jersey in the 2003 Stanley Cup Final.
Instead of taking sides, focus on the totals. The ‘under’ is 9-2 in Detroit’s 11 elimination games at home, while it has cashed at a 3-1-1 clip in the five tilts the Ducks have played.
The puck drops on this game at 7:05 p.m. EDT on Versus.
Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins
Boston showed that it has the heart of a champion after taking the Hurricanes as a $1.20 road “chalk” last Tuesday, 4-2.
The Bruins’ offense has come alive in the last two games by scoring eight goals total. Yet the reason for their success falls squarely on netminder Tim Thomas’ shoulders.
Thomas looked like a mannequin between the pipes for Games 2 through 5. In that three-game span, Thomas was only able to stop 90.6 percent of the Hurricanes’ shots on goal and had a 2.97 goals against average. In the last two matches, he’s given up two scores and has a 96.2 save percentage.
The Bruins can’t just rely on Thomas alone, though. They need to get their special teams play up and running. Boston went 0-for-3 on the power play in Game 6 to bring its output to a pathetic 2-for-25 in the second round.
Outside of the B’s power play problems, they’ve done a fine job of knocking around Carolina’s offense. The Hurricanes have not been able to play their typical forechecking system, which has hurt their scoring chances.
The ‘Canes should also try to get Eric Staal the puck a lot more often. Good things happen for Carolina when its alternate captain find the back of the net. The Hurricanes are 7-0 when Staal scores a goal and 0-6 when he doesn’t light the lamp.
Most sportsbooks have tabbed the Bruins as $2.10 home faves with the total rolling in at five.
You can call it a calculated risk in taking the B’s to win this series. They’re 9-4 in the 13 Game 7s that they’ve hosted in their storied history. Yet they’ve never successfully came back from being down 3-1 ever. It’s also just the second time Boston has forced Game 7; the other time coming just last year versus the Canadiens.
Carolina has been in this position before, having just survived the Devils in the first round with wildest 80-second finish ever. The Hurricanes are a perfect 3-0 in Game 7s since moving from Hartford, Connecticut to Raleigh back in 1997.
It also helps the Hurricanes’ chances with Cam Ward handling the goaltending duties. The young backstop has yet to lose a postseason series in his career (5-0) to go along with a perfect 4-0 mark in elimination tilts.
The safest play for the gambling public on this game is taking the Bruins on the puck line. Boston has been one of the better clubs to cover that play this season with a 26-20 record at TD Banknorth Garden. And they’re 3-1 in the postseason.
You can catch this contest on NHL Center Ice live at 8:00 p.m. EDT, with Versus picking up coverage after the Red Wings-Ducks game.
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SCOREBOARD
Thursday, May 14
Anaheim at Detroit (7 p.m. EDT). Anaheim beat Detroit 2-1 in Game 6 on Tuesday night to force a seventh game in the Western Conference semifinal series
Carolina at Boston (8 p.m. EDT). Boston has won two straight games after falling behind 3-1 in the Eastern Conference semifinal.
STAR
Wednesday
Sidney Crosby(notes), Penguins, scored his NHL-leading 11th and 12th goals of the playoffs to help Pittsburgh beat Washington 6-2 in Game 7.
STATS
Pittsburgh beat Washington 6-2 on Wednesday night in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals to improve to 3-0 against the Capitals in Game 7s. Pittsburgh has won seven of eight playoff series against Washington.
SCOUTING
Medicine Hat Tigers coach Willie Desjardins was selected coach of five-time defending champion Canada’s 2010 world junior team Wednesday. The tournament is Dec. 26-Jan 5 in Saskatoon and Regina, Saskatchewan.
SPEAKING
“I just said, ‘Great series.’ There was a lot of eyes on the series. It was a battle for both teams. Individually, we both wanted to make sure we did a great job.”—Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby when asked what he said to Washington star Alex Ovechkin after the Penguins’ Game 7 victory Wednesday night.
“I just wished him good luck and told him to win the Stanley Cup.”— Ovechkin.
Anaheim Ducks vs. Detroit Red Wings
Corey Perry's second-period marker stood up as the winner as the Ducks nipped the Red Wings 2-1 to even the series at three games apiece on Tuesday night.
Anaheim cashed as +135 home underdogs as the game played UNDER the 5.5-goal total set by sportsbooks.
Perry added an assist for the Ducks, who got a goal and an assist from Ryan Getzlaf in the win.
Johan Franzen scored the goal for Detroit, which outshot Anaheim 39-28 on the night.
Team records:
Anaheim: 42-33-7
Detroit: 51-21-10
Anaheim most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 3-7
After playing Detroit are 5-5
After a win are 4-6
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing Edmonton are 6-4
After playing Anaheim are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Anaheim's last 15 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Anaheim is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Anaheim is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Anaheim
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit's last 15 games when playing at home against Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Boston Bruins
Marc Savard scored what proved to be the winner as the Bruins clipped the Hurricanes 4-2 to knot the series at three games apiece on Tuesday night.
Boston cashed as -115 road favorites as the game played OVER the 5-goal total posted by sportsbooks.
Mark Recchi and Chuck Kobasew each had a goal and an assist for the Bruins, who got two helpers from Patrice Bergeron in the win.
Sergei Samsonov and Matt Cullen found the back of the net for Carolina, which outshot Boston 33-19 on the night.
Team records:
Carolina: 45-30-7
Boston: 53-19-10
Carolina most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 3-7
Before playing Boston are 7-3
After playing Boston are 7-3
After a loss are 5-5
Boston most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 3-5-2
Before playing Ottawa are 5-5
After playing Carolina are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
Carolina is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
Carolina is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boston's last 12 games at home
Boston is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
ANAHEIM vs. DETROIT
Anaheim is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Anaheim
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Anaheim
CAROLINA vs. BOSTON
Carolina is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Boston
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boston's last 12 games at home
Carolina at Boston
Carolina:
13-4 SU revenging BB losses by 2+ goals
12-4 Under off BB losses
Boston:
1-8 SU when tied in a playoff series
10-20 SU at home vs. Carolina
Anaheim at Detroit
Anaheim:
8-26 SU at Detroit
10-4 Over off BB Unders
Detroit:
13-2 Over off BB Unders
6-0 Over revenging loss where team scored 1 goal or less
NHL Playoffs
Boston is 4-1 at home in playoffs; they scored total of three goals in its three series losses, but scored four goals in each of its wins- they have a 6-2 scoring edge in first period. Bruins are struggling (2-23, 35:30) on the power play in series. Carolina is 3-4 on road in series; they scored twice in last 1:20 of Game 7 in first round at New Jersey, stealing that series. Home team is +72 in shots on goal in last five series games.
Ducks have been outshot 262-166 so far in series, with Wings outscoring Anaheim 7-1 in third period in series (goals are 12-13 first two periods). Detroit is 4-1 at home in playoffs, winning 3-2/4-1 in this series, losing 4-3 in triple OT (all three Anaheim series wins are by one goal). Ducks split six road playoff games. More pressure on home side in a Game 7.
CAROLINA (52-35-0-8, 112 pts.) at BOSTON (60-20-0-12, 132 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 104-77 ATS (+190.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 33-8 ATS (+23.0 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
BOSTON is 46-22 ATS (+16.2 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 52-43 ATS (+5.0 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 34-23 ATS (+8.8 Units) second half of the season this season.
CAROLINA is 47-33 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 18-13 ATS (+33.1 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 14-8 ATS (+22.5 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 25-21 ATS (+49.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CAROLINA is 18-11 ATS (+30.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 1-8 ATS (-9.6 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 9-9 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 9-9-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.3 Units)
ANAHEIM (49-37-0-8, 106 pts.) at DETROIT (58-23-0-11, 127 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 21-15 ATS (+38.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 this season.
ANAHEIM is 16-13 ATS (+33.3 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.
ANAHEIM is 83-63 ATS (+13.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 16-14 ATS (+35.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 12-12 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 12-12-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
11 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.6 Units, Under=-0.7 Units)