Storm Brewing for Game 2
By Judd Hall
The Penguins fired the opening salvo of their Eastern Conference Final against Carolina with a 3-2 win as $2.10 home favorites. And the sportsbooks are expecting more of the same in Game 2 by installing the Pens as $2.00 faves.
As positive as things appear for Pittsburgh, they’ve settled next to nothing in this best-of-seven series. That’s the way it goes in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Pittsburgh was able to jump out to an early 2-0 lead in the opening matchup on just nine shots on goal. Yet you have to look at how those goals were scored to appreciate them. Evgeni Malkin was able to get one past the Hurricanes’ Cam Ward due to a defense that didn’t mark him properly. Miroslav Satan picked up his score of the playoffs thanks to getting out of the penalty box for a 1-on-1 showdown with Ward for the game’s opening tally.
The Pens were able to hold onto the lead they amassed thanks to Marc-Andre Fleury. Pittsburgh’s goaltender was able to stop 23 of the 25 shots he saw during the game. Fleury was able to keep the puck out of the net in the final 30 seconds to hold onto the victory.
The Hurricanes came out of the gate firing on Fleury with 12 SOG, and almost all of them had a legitimate shot of finding the back of the net. A pretty impressive beginning when you factor in what could have easily been an emotional letdown after escaping Boston with an overtime win in Game 7 of the second round.
Carolina even has to look at its special teams play in a positive light right now, scoring on one of its two power plays. The defense should no doubt expect to be beaten up a little by the refs (was Washington right with the claims that the Pens are preferred by the league?) as they were called for four penalties. Yet, the ‘Canes allowed just one goal when shorthanded.
Ward also gives the Hurricanes fans some hope as well. That’s because he hunkered down to turn back 21 of the Penguins’ final 22 SOG. And that doesn’t even take into account that Ward is 9-3-1 with a 2.43 goals against average at Mellon Arena.
The betting shops aren’t expecting the ‘Canes to even the series at one win apiece by posting Pittsburgh as a $2.00 home “chalk” with a total of 5 ½. Plus side for Carolina backers is they can get a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170) should they get the outright victory.
Is it worth taking a shot with the Hurricanes in Game 2 though?
If we’re going by just what they’ve done this postseason, then yes. Carolina has lost the last two series openers they’ve played in this year. But they bounced back with wins in the second game. If bettors played 100 units in those two matches, they would be up 320.
And if you want to throw this “Game 2 Play” a little further, you’ll see that the ‘Canes are 7-3 in their last 10 Game 2s. Gamblers would have profited by taking the ‘under’ in those matches as it has cashed at a 7-3 clip.
Pittsburgh isn’t a slouch in the second game of its last 16 playoff series either; they are 12-4 in that stretch. Adding some more fuel the low scoring fire is the fact that the ‘under’ is 10-6 for those contests.
If you were hoping to get glean something from the fact that they’ll be playing this contest on two days rest, then the ‘Canes have a shot. Carolina is 4-2 this season when getting a couple of days off. The Penguins have gone 5-3 when hitting the ice after two days of rest.
The puck drops on this fixture at 7:35 p.m. on Versus.
vegasinsider.com
Dogs Hold Value For NHL Game 2s
by Nicholas Tolomeo
Both opening games in the NHL conference finals went according to plan with the heavily favored Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins defending their respective home ices and taking an early 1-0 series lead.
All four teams may be thinking the same thing right at this point: "we have them right where we want them."
The Carolina Hurricanes have now dropped their third consecutive Game 1. Of course, it has not stopped the 2006 Stanley Cup champions from advancing to the Eastern Finals. In these playoffs Carolina has bounced back twice in Game 2s, at New Jersey and at Boston, to win both games as underdogs. After a loss the Hurricanes are 4-1 in this postseason so do not expect a 1-0 series deficit to strike panic in any of the players. At +170 on Thursday night the Cardiac Canes, as they are being called, pack plenty of value.
The Pittsburgh Penguins did what was expected at Mellon Arena on Monday night. While the Pens struggled mightily at home later in series, they have been able to take care of business in the first two home games. They won the first two in Pittsburgh against the Flyers but lost Game Five, a potential series clincher, at home. In the second round Pittsburgh won the first two against Washington at home but lost Game 6, another home ice potential clincher. The Penguins are pegged as -200 money line favorites once again in Game 2 but they have been anything but dominant at home. They are 5-2 at home after Game 1 but three of the wins were decided by one goal and two went into overtime.
Over in the Western Conference the Chicago Blackhawks dropped another early road game. They lost their first two games at Calgary, their first game at Vancouver and now their first game at Detroit on Sunday. In the last two Blackhawk series they have managed to rebound not only back at the United Center but also on the road. Chicago clinched the series at Calgary in Game 6 in the first round and changed the course of its second-round series at Vancouver in a Game 5. Do not expect the youthful Blackhawks to panic down 1-0 on the road against the defending Stanley Cup Champions. They enter Game 2 as equal underdogs to the Hurricanes, with a +170 money line.
Looking at the veteran Red Wings, they have dominated play for the most part at home with a 6-1 playoff record at Joe Louis Arena. The one hiccup, however, was a Game 2 loss at home against Anaheim when the Red Wings were a big favorite as they are against Chicago. Chris Osgood allowed four goals in that triple overtime loss to Anaheim. The last thing the Wings want to do is head back to a raucous United Center having lost home ice advantage by splitting with the Black Hawks. However, Detroit is an awfully tough spot here against a Blackhawk team has shown its resilience on the road after Game 1.
Game 1 has proven not exactly to be a telling tale of what is to come in the series. Teams that have won Game 1 have only gone on to win seven of the 12 series.
For a Stanley Cup playoffs that have not gone according to script at all, expect to see at least one upset in a Game 2 with the Blackhawks and Hurricanes both holding promising value at +170.
Docsports.com
What bettors need to know: Hurricanes at Penguins
By ARI BAUM-COHEN
Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins (-190, 5.5)
Line Adjustments
Pittsburgh won as -185 favorites in Game 1 of this series. The line opened with Pittsburgh as -200 favorites for Game 2 and is currently at -190.
The total is set at 5.5 -120, the same price as last game.
Beating the odds
The Hurricanes have lost Game 1 all three times this postseason. They came back to win series against New Jersey and Boston despite dropping the opening contest.
Historically the team that wins Game 1 at home wins the follow-up match 65 percent of the time and wins the series 77 percent of the time.
Injury Front
The Hurricanes will likely be without forwards Erik Cole and Tuomo Ruutu for Thursday’s tilt. Both players were injured during Monday’s action. Cole was the victim of a knee-on-knee hit from Penguins forward Matt Cooke while Ruutu injured his ankle when Penguins D-man Mark Eaton kicked Ruutu’s skate out from under him in the first period.
Neither player has been particularly productive this postseason. Cole and Ruutu have combined for seven points in Carolina’s 15 playoff games.
Is the over cover undercover?
The Penguins and Hurricanes have played five times this season, including playoffs, and have finish below the total four times. The under also has a 4-0-1 record in Carolina’s last five road games.
Last game stayed under - with the Pens winning 3-2 - but featured many scoring chances and highlight-reel saves from goaltenders Marc-Andre Fleury and Cam Ward. Fleury is 9-5 this postseason with a GAA of 2.67, while Ward is 8-7 with a 2.27 GAA.
Oh, Brother
This postseason, when a Staal brother scores, his team is 9-1. When Eric Staal scores a goal, the Hurricanes are 7-0 while the Pens are 2-0 when Jordan Staal finds the back of the net. Not as lucky is brother Marc Staal whose lone goal this playoffs came in the New York Rangers’ game six defeat to the Capitals.
Series Star Watch
Sidney Crosby: 0 goals, 1 assist, 0
Evgeni Malkin: 1 goal, 1 assist, +1
Eric Staal: 0 goals, 0 assists, -1
Ray Whitney: 0 goals, 1 assist, -1
Other Key Numbers:
- The home team is 10-2 in Pittsburgh and Carolina’s last 12 meetings.
- Carolina is 4-1 in its last five games when scoring two goals or less in its previous game.
- Pittsburgh has won five of its last six games.
- Pittsburgh is 26-7 in its last 33 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
- The Under is 4-0-1 in Carolina’s last five playoff games as an underdog of +151 to +200.
- The Over is 4-1 in Pittsburgh’s last five games overall.
Hockey Today
SCOREBOARD
Thursday, May 21
Carolina at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EDT). The Penguins beat the Hurricanes 3-2 on Monday night in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.
SCOUTING
Gabriel Dumont scored at 13:23 of overtime to give the Drummondville Voltigeurs a 3-2 victory over the host Rimouski Oceanic on Wednesday night in the Memorial Cup. Drummondville advanced to the semifinal Friday night against the Rimouski-Windsor winner Thursday night in the tiebreaker game. Kelowna has advanced to the final.
SPEAKING
“Out of all the teams, this is probably the best team at knowing their game, playing their game and doing it over and over again with hard work. They play their game and they’re very disciplined in how they play their game. That’s how they’ve become resilient and that’s how they’ve come back in series.”— Pittsburgh coach Dan Bylsma on the Carolina Hurricanes.
CAROLINA (53-36-0-8, 114 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (54-32-0-10, 118 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 115-83 ATS (+209.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 35-12 ATS (+20.1 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 76-47 ATS (+0.6 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 28-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 24-13 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CAROLINA is 53-44 ATS (+5.7 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 35-24 ATS (+9.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
CAROLINA is 48-33 ATS (+10.9 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 26-22 ATS (+52.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CAROLINA is 19-12 ATS (+33.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 7-6 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 7-6-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.0 Units)
CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Carolina
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Eastern Conference Finals
Carolina at Pittsburgh
Carolina:
12-7 SU when trailing in a playoff series
17-9 SU off a road loss
Pittsburgh:
6-1 Under at home vs. Carolina
14-6 Under at home playing with 2 days rest
NHL Playoffs
Carolina lost five of last six games in Pittsburgh; they're 4-5 on the road in the playoffs. Pittsburgh led 2-0 after first period in Game 1, despite being outshot by Hurricanes 12-9, then outshot Carolina 22-13 in last two periods. Penguins are 5-2 at home in playoffs- they had power play for 7:43 in Game 1, but only scored one goal. Carolina was 1-2 on power play, in 3:08. Four of last five Pittsburgh games went over the total.