What bettors need to know: Stanley Cup finals Game 4
By ARI BAUM-COHEN
Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins (-150, 5.5)
Penalty-killing problems
Detroit’s only weakness this postseason has been its penalty killing. The Red Wings surrendered two power-play goals in Game 3, including the game winner.
Detroit had a streak of allowing a power-play goal in 13 straight games earlier in the playoffs and has given up at least one power-play goal in 15 of its last 19 games.
Pittsburgh is 3-of-6 on the power play this series and has scored three of its five goals in the Cup finals with the man advantage.
Will Datsyuk return?
Pavel Datsyuk is making significant progress and may be able to play in Game 4. The Hart Trophy nominee has not played since Game 2 of the Chicago series and would provide the Wings with another dangerous offensive weapon.
Sidney who?
Sidney Crosby is having a quiet series (1 assist, -1). Brian Rafalski and Nick Lidstrom have played well against Crosby’s line, while Henrik Zetterberg has successfully limited Sidney Crosby’s offensive chances.
Evgeni Malkin, on the other hand, is atoning for last year’s disappointing finals performance. Malkin has been excellent, registering a point on each of the Penguins' five goals (one goal, four assists).
Home-ice advantage
Home games in Pittsburgh mean that coach Dan Bylsma makes the final line change. Matchups are extremely important, especially concerning a team like Pittsburgh that is dominated by two superstars.
“The one advantage we had (in Game 3), because they were trying to get Zetterberg out there so much, (was that) there were times when he got out there tired,” Bylsma told reporters.
May the better team…lose?
Pittsburgh played well enough to win Games 1 and 2 and even out-shot the Red Wings twice at Joe Louis Arena. After losing both games, the Penguins were dominated by the Red Wings in Game 3, particularly in the second period, yet managed to come away with a win.
“It’s kind of fitting that we win this game,” Penguins defenseman Mark Eaton told the media. “We played well enough to win at least one of the first two, and they played better than us tonight and probably deserved to win.”
Who is really the better team?
Most of the analysis and public opinion is that Detroit is the better team, but what do oddsmakers think? Detroit was a -143 favorite in Games 1 and 2. Pittsburgh opened at a whopping -160 in Game 3 and the opening line for Game 4 has the Penguins priced at -150.
Based on those lines, oddsmakers seem to be indicating that Pittsburgh is the better team. Detroit’s advantage in the series, of course, is that it plays an extra game at home.
Trends
- Detroit is 4-0 after scoring two goals or less in its previous game.
- Pittsburgh is 4-1 after allowing two goals or less in its previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Detroit’s last five road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Penguins’ last five home games.
- Home teams have won the first three games and lost Game 4 in the last three Stanley Cup finals.
Can the Penguins tie it up?
By Judd Hall
And just like that, we have a series.
Pittsburgh played with the desperation of a team that had to win in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final. And it paid off as the Pens came through with a 4-2 victory as $1.75 home favorites on Tuesday.
You wouldn’t have figured the Penguins would win after being dominated during the first two periods by Detroit. The shots on goal were extremely lopsided in that time frame with the Red Wings winning that battle 26-11.
Marc-Andre Fleury didn’t help matters for Pittsburgh in giving up two goals in the first. While he didn’t allow a soft goal this time around, Fleury did find himself out of position for both scores.
Despite the shot differential and performance out of Fleury, the Pens still found themselves tied 2-2 heading into the third act. All they had to do was bear down on the defensive side of the rink.
Pittsburgh’s defense stepped up in the final period by shutting down the Wings’ attack in letting them take just three shots on goal.
The Penguins are still seeing a strange role reversal in their two biggest players, Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. It has been well documented how absent Malkin was during last year’s Final. He’s more than made up for that performance this season by posting five points in the first three games, including three assists on the first three goals on Tuesday night.
Crosby, on the other hand, has been a ghost. He’s logging quality ice time, averaging around just over 21 minutes on the ice. Yet all Crosby has to show for those shifts is one assist that he picked up in Game 3. Compared those numbers to the six points he had in the 2008 Stanley Cup Final and 28 points he had leading into this round and you know something is off.
The absence of scoring out of Crosby can directly be attributed to Detroit’s Henrik Zetterberg. The Swedish pivot has done a masterful job against “Sid the Kid” in not giving him many clean shots to take. He also picked his first goal of the series and second helper as well on Tuesday.
Zetterberg, along with netminder Chris Osgood, were the only standouts for the Red Wings in Game 3. Osgood had a tough outing if you look at him stopping only 17 of the Penguins’ 20 shots. But Pittsburgh could have won this game 6-2 easily had it not been for quality saves against Max Talbot (who scored twice in Game 3) and denying Crosby from close range.
Ultimately what killed the Wings on Tuesday night was what has been their Achilles’ heel all season long, their penalty kill unit. Detroit ranked 25th in the NHL on the PK during the regular season at 78.3 percent…just ahead of teams like the Lightning and Thrashers. Things have not gotten better in the playoffs, either. The Red Wings gave up two power play goals on three chances to the Pens on Tuesday night. Those scores brought their success rate down to 71.4 percent for the postseason.
While things didn’t look good for Detroit in Game 3, they’re still up 2-1 in this best-of-seven series. It’s the exact same spot they were in when they took the ice for Game 4 last season against Pittsburgh.
The only thing different about this meeting is that the Pens are listed as $1.55 home favorites with a total of 5 ½. Last year, Pittsburgh was installed as a $1.10 home “chalk” with the total coming in at five.
It’s awful hard to bet against the Penguins in this spot knowing that they’re 15-4 at Mellon Arena since the beginning of March with the ‘over’ going 11-8. You could also take a chance with Pittsburgh on the puck line for a plus-190 return (-1 ½ goals, risk $100 to win $190), but you should know that they’re just 10-9 since March 1.
Detroit hasn’t been that solid of a wager on the road recently with a 10-7 mark over the last three months.
If you’re looking at just playoff records, then the Pens are still the play. Pittsburgh has posted a 16-4 record at home over its last two playoff seasons. The Red Wings, on the other hand, are just 10-7 away from Joe Louis Arena in the 2008 and 2009 playoffs. The ‘over’ is a combined 18-13-8 between these clubs in that timeframe.
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DETROIT vs. PITTSBURGH
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Stanley Cup Finals
Detroit at Pittsburgh
Detroit:
1-5 SU as an underdog
14-7 Over revenging road loss
Pittsburgh:
50-24 SU as a home favorite of -200 or less
22-7 SU at home if total is 5.5
Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Sergei Gonchar's power-play marker in the third period was the winner as the Penguins took out the Red Wings 4-2 in Game 3 of the final on Tuesday night.
Pittsburgh cashed as -165 home favorites as the teams played OVER the 5.5-goal total listed by oddsmakers.
Evgeni Malkin recorded three assists for the Penguins, who got two goals from Max Talbot in the win.
Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen each had a goal and an assist for Detroit, which now leads the best-of-seven series 2-1.
Team records:
Detroit: 51-21-10
Pittsburgh: 45-28-9
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing Edmonton are 6-4
After playing Pittsburgh are 7-3
After a loss are 5-5
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Ottawa are 6-4
After playing Detroit are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Pittsburgh
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Next up:
Pittsburgh at Detroit, Saturday, June 6
DETROIT (65-24-0-12, 142 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (58-34-0-10, 126 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 119-85 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 22-7 ATS (+12.4 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 this season.
PITTSBURGH is 80-49 ATS (+1.4 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 66-52 ATS (-1.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 28-15 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 18-4 ATS (+11.7 Units) in the Stanley Cup finals since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 8-4 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 8-4-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.9 Units)
NHL Playoffs
Penguins out shot Detroit 10-3 in decisive third period in Game 3, after being out shot 26-11 in first two periods. Red Wings are 7-3-1 in last ten games vs Pittsburgh, 3-1-1 this year, outscoring Penguins 17-13; Detroit won nine of its last 12 games overall. Pittsburgh won seven of nine home playoff games; Wings are 4-4 on road. Road teams are 8-6 in Game 4's so far in playoffs this spring.