Lucky No. 7
By Judd Hall
We may have had three ho-hum sweeps in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but that’ll get evened out on Tuesday. There are a pair of series in the Eastern Conference that have gone to the limit. Who’s going to live to play another day after their Game 7? Let’s break down the action.
New York Rangers at Washington Capitals
Last Wednesday, the Capitals looked like a team that was going to exit the postseason with a whimper after falling down 3-1 in their best-of-seven series.
You can’t fault Washington for lack of trying as they peppered the Rangers with an average of 35 shots on goal in the first six games. What you can criticize them over is how they couldn’t get Alex Ovechkin enough time by himself at the start of this series. In the first three games Ovechkin took 24 shots, but I’d say about one-third of them were legitimate attempts. Ovechkin was able to make lemonade out of the lemons New York gave him by assisting on three of Alexander Semin’s four goals in the playoffs.
One thing is for sure though; this series would be done already if it wasn’t for Simeon Varlamov. The young netminder took over the starting job after Mr. Softee, Jose Theodore, had a horrible performance in Game 1. Varlamov has stopped 95.4 percent of the shots fired his way and can boast a 1.21 goals against average. He’s even helped bettors walk away with three solid puck line wins in the series, which add up a return of 580 units.
On the other side of the ice, the Rangers appear to be coming apart at the seams.
In Games 1 through 4, the Blueshirts had stopped not only “Alex the Great,” but also rendered Washington’s power play useless (4-for-22). A major reason for that was Henrik Lundqvist. New York’s netminder stopped 94.6 percent of the shots by the Caps with a 2.00 GAA. However, “King Henrik” has looked like a pauper in his last two starts, giving up nine goals on 34 shots. And he got pulled after two periods of work in both games.
As if Lundqvist’s problems weren’t enough, head coach John Tortorella was suspended for Game 6 after some theatrics with the Capitals’ fans last Friday. Making Tortorella’s benching all the more ironic is that he held Sean Avery out of Game 5 for mental mistakes on the ice.
The sportsbooks are expecting the Capitals to close the deal on Tuesday by installing them as heavy $2.60 home favorites (risk $260 to win $100) with a total of five. For those of you not willing to have the shakes for 60 minutes of action, you can take Washington to cover the puck line at a much more palatable plus-110 return.
The Caps don’t have a stellar record when it comes to playing in Game 7, winning just one of the five decisive matches they’ve played in franchise history. But this club does have the experience of losing this contest after failing at home against Philadelphia last year in the first round.
New York hasn’t taken a series to the limit since Mark Messier held Lord Stanley’s mug in 1994. Since the ’94 Stanley Cup Final, the Rangers are 2-4 in elimination games. The ‘over’ is 3-1-2 in that stretch as well.
You can catch this game on Versus at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils
It’s only fitting that the most exciting series of the first round goes to a decisive Game 7.
Carolina staved off elimination as a $1.45 home “chalk” by dropping the Devils in Game 6 last Sunday, 4-0. The ‘Canes were able to force this series to its full compliment thanks to inspired forechecking. The Hurricanes made life miserable for New Jersey has they tried to clear the puck out of its own zone or in neutral ice, converting the turnovers into goals against a very human Martin Brodeur.
Eric Staal has played great hockey against the Devs, scoring four goals over the course of the series. And they’ve seen great things out of Ray Whitney, who has lit the lamp twice and helped on four others.
The Hurricanes wouldn’t be able to reach this point if it weren’t for Cam Ward playing masterfully between the pipes. Ward may only have a 3-3 record in this matchup, but he has a 94.2 save percentage to go along with a GAA of 1.96. And he’s only given up two power play goals on 23 chances for the Devils.
New Jersey needs to find its offense and fast. The Devils scored 14 goals in the first four games of this series, but have visited the Red Light District just once in Games 5 and 6. Head coach summed up the Devs’ recent performance well, “The difference (Sunday) was (one) team that played like there was no tomorrow and the other team played like there was.”
If there is one thing the Devils must continue to do is play solid on special teams. Carolina is just 2-for-25 on the power play in this series. That’s impressive feat for New Jersey considering that the ‘Canes converted on 18.7 percent of their power plays during the regular season campaign.
New Jersey also has to wonder which Brodeur they’ll get in this game: Will it be the one that stopped 44 shots in Game 5 or the one that looked stupid in allowing four goals on 37 shots in Game 6?
This series has alternated wins and losses every step of the way but, like I mentioned before, Carolina has dominated the play for the most part. Of course, that and a dollar will get you two apple pies at McDonald’s when it comes to a Game 7.
Most sportsbooks have posted New Jersey as a $1.55 home favorite with a total of five.
The Devils have played in a lot of Game 7s over their history, 12 to be exact. And they’ve gone 6-6 in those matches. They’re 4-6 in their last 10 deciding games, the last coming in 2003 against the Mighty Ducks for the Stanley Cup. Total plays have been a bust in this spot for bettors as it’s 3-3 in the last six contests.
Carolina has never won a playoff series that it found itself trailing 3-2 after five games…even dating back to the old days as the Whalers. However, the Hurricanes are 2-0 in Game 7 since moving to Raleigh in 1997. And Ward is 3-0 for his career in elimination games.
The puck will drop on this game at 7:30 p.m. EDT on the NHL Center Ice package.
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Hockey Today
SCOREBOARD
Tuesday, April 28
New York Rangers at Washington (7 p.m. EDT); Carolina at New Jersey (7:30 p.m. EDT). A pair of Game 7s to decide the final two Eastern Conference teams to advance.
STARS
Monday
— Nikolai Khabibulin, Blackhawks, made 43 saves in a 4-1 victory at Calgary that lifted Chicago into the second round of the Western Conference playoffs.
— Jonas Hiller, Ducks, made 36 saves to finish his phenomenal playoff series debut, guiding Anaheim past top-seeded San Jose 4-1 to win the first-round series in six games.
PLAYOFF MATCHUPS
The Western Conference semifinals are set with Vancouver hosting Chicago in their opener, and Anaheim at Detroit.
BEATING THE BEST
With a dynamic offensive effort that negated all the Sharks’ physical bluster, Anaheim became the third team to beat the NHL’s top regular-season club in the first round since 2000, and just the fifth since 1968.
RARE TERRITORY
Before Monday night’s elimination of the Flames, Chicago’s previous playoff series win was a four-game sweep of Calgary in 1996. With 14 players under the age of 25, the Blackhawks are the youngest team in the NHL. Their lack of playoff experience was thought to be a disadvantage heading into the series, but the Hawks were poised and tenacious against the more-experienced Flames.
DROUGHT CONTINUES
With the exception of their run to the Stanley Cup final in 2004, when they lost to Tampa Bay, the Flames haven’t made it out of the first round of the playoffs since winning the Cup in 1989. … San Jose has won four Pacific Division titles in the past seven seasons, but has never made it beyond the 2004 Western Conference finals. The Sharks won the Presidents’ Trophy this season, but fell in six games to Anaheim in the opening round.
SPEAKING
“I think if you ask anyone, we’re not an eight seed. Everyone in here knows that, and I think now everyone in hockey pretty much sees it, too.”—Ducks defenseman Ryan Whitney after they eliminated Presidents’ Trophy winner San Jose in six games.
“All season, I think teams thought they could challenge us physically and we’ve done a good job of answering that bell. I think a lot of our guys enjoy that. I know I enjoy those confrontations.”—Chicago’s Adam Burish after his young, inexperienced team beat Calgary in six games to advance to the second round.
NY RANGERS (46-33-0-9, 101 pts.) at WASHINGTON (53-27-0-8, 114 pts.)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 9-9 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 9-9-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.3 Units)
CAROLINA (48-32-0-8, 104 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (54-29-0-5, 113 pts.)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 10-8 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 10-8-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.5 Units)
NY RANGERS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Rangers are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Rangers last 5 games
Washington is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Rangers
CAROLINA vs. NEW JERSEY
Carolina is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Jersey's last 10 games
New Jersey is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
NY Rangers at Washington
NY Rangers:
1-10 SU after allowing 5+ goals
11-18 SU at Washington
Washington:
19-4 Over after allowing 2+ goals in the 3rd period last game
19-10 Over after win by 2+ goals
Carolina at New Jersey
Carolina:
1-9 SU off shutout win
11-22 SU at New Jersey
New Jersey:
22-8 SU as home favorite of -200 or less
13-3 SU at home if total is 5 or less
NHL Playoffs
Washington outscored Rangers 9-3 in winning last two games to force a Game 7 in their building; New York has only one even strength goal in last two games. Road team won four of six series games, with under also 4-2. In the three games played in DC, Caps outshot New York 33-13 in first period (three games in NY, they were outshot 33-32). Pressure now equally divided, since Caps were favored, but Rangers led series 3-1.
Home team is 4-2 in Carolina-New Jersey series (2-1 in each building); Devils scored one goal in last two games, haven't scored first period goal in last three games. Teams are a combined 4-48 on power play in series. Total of nine goals were scored in three series games in this building, so this figures to be tense struggle, considering two series games went into OT, and a third was won with 0:00.2 left to play.
How long layoffs affect NHL teams in the postseason
By ARI BAUM-COHEN
The Boston Bruins, Detroit Red Wings and Vancouver Canucks are resting at home after convincing first round sweeps. Meanwhile, after the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes won yesterday, at least two and as many as four series will go the distance.
The team that wins Game 7 will have only one or two days off before playing its second round matchup, potentially against a well-rested opponent. Invariably, when a well-rested team plays against a club only day(s) removed from a grueling series, analysts dedicate considerable time and resources to discussing which team has the advantage.
Though analysts have opinions on whether a rested team has an advantage, oddsmakers focus on other factors.
“That kind of tangible handicapping doesn't play into our opening prices,” says Randy Scott, sportsbook manager of betED.com. “We stick with stats, matchup history and power rankings to guide our opening prices and leave the tangibles up to the players to figure out.
“Whichever theory is the more popular one will get the attention from us to adjust the prices in the direction of the action.”
A team that is well rested can relax and recover from injury, but also takes a break from the intensity of the playoffs. Conversely, a team coming off a Game 7 victory has momentum and doesn’t need to refocus. The downside is that the squad has to deal with the physical effects of a seven-game series.
Two years ago, the Canucks nearly blew a 3-1 series lead to Dallas and although they won that series in seven games, wound up losing to Anaheim in the next round. Canucks defensemen Willie Mitchell recalled that “we didn’t finish off Dallas and ended up with guys that had torn abs, broken ribs, the list goes on and on all the injuries we had and it hurt us playing against Anaheim.”
The effect of a long rest will be most obvious in the first game of a series. The team that wins the first game of a best of seven wins the series 69.4 percent of the time (372-164) in the NHL.
Looking at historical data since the lockout, it appears there is an argument to be made that a lack of rest can contribute to playoff success, particularly when playing against a well-rested team. The caveat, of course, is that only three years worth of data was examined.
Teams with seven days off or more are 1-5 in the first game of the next round and are 2-4 overall in those series. The only Game 1 victory by a team with seven days of rest or more came last year, when the Penguins erased a 3-0 second period deficit to defeat the Rangers.
Teams with two days off or less are 4-3 in the first game of the next round and 4-3 in those series.
The sharpest contrast is noticed when teams with long layoffs play a side that is just fresh of the prior series. Clubs with seven days of rest or more playing against teams with three days of rest or less are 0-4 and are 1-3 in their respective series. Teams with two days of rest or less are 3-1 and are 3-1 in their respective series playing against teams that have “out-rested” them by three days or more.
Finally, teams with three days of rest or less playing a team that has at least four more off days are 4-1 and are 3-2 in the series overall.
So what does this mean for bettors?
Based on the last three years of data on the effect of rest on game one results, here are the recommended plays:
Eastern Conference
Bet against Boston in Game 1, unless they play Pittsburgh.
Western Conference
Bet against Detroit and Vancouver in Game 1, unless they play each other. Don’t forget that Vancouver has had an especially long layoff.