On the Ice - Tuesday
By Judd Hall
As the days move on, we inch closer and closer to getting the NHL’s Final Four. Tuesday night will give us a chance to see either two conference finalists emerge or set the stage for a pair of Game 7s.
Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes
I think it’s safe to assume that we all knew the Bruins were going to come out swinging last Sunday. Boston made certain that they weren’t going to lose on home ice in Game 5 as they beat the Hurricanes as a $2.00 favorite, 4-0.
The B’s played their first complete game since the series opener on May 1. That meant getting into Carolina’s heads by any means necessary. It worked as the Bruins outhit the ‘Canes 25-15 on Sunday.
More important than the physical aspect though was the fact that Boston eliminated its own mental mistakes. It became all too commonplace for the Bruins to give up the puck either in neutral ice or in their own defensive zone. Turnovers like that helped Carolina get to where it is in this series. In Game 5, however, the B’s were sharp with the puck. And that helped keep the ‘Canes to just 19 shots on goal.
The Hurricanes just looked dumbstruck at what was happening on Sunday. They couldn’t protect their end of the ice as Cam Ward was peppered with 40 shots on goal. Given that he only allowed four goals shows that Ward is pretty impressive.
It was also apparent that Carolina couldn’t keep its head in the game as they were goaded into 17 penalties, 11 of which because power play opportunities for the Bruins. On the plus side, the ‘Canes allowed just one goal on those 11 chances.
So who has the edge for Game 6 in Raleigh?
If we go by what the sportsbooks say, then the Bruins will tie it up as they’re $1.15 road favorites with a total of five. But that could be a little misleading with Carolina as a minus-105 home pup.
Boston must overcome a history of bowing out in this spot. The B’s have trailed 21 playoff series 3-1 and have lost the first 20 times. They’ve only been able to force a decisive Game 7 just once in that stretch, last year against Montreal.
The Hurricanes certainly look like the smart play in Game 6. This is a team that has yet to lose back-to-back playoff games. And the ‘Canes have gone 8-5 in the matches that they can go for the kill since moving from Hartford. The ‘under’ is 8-4-1 in that frame as well.
The puck drops at the RBC Center at 7:05 p.m. EDT on Versus.
Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks
After three games, the Ducks had a 2-1 lead in the series. Now they sit a loss away from elimination.
You can look at this turn of events one of two ways: The Red Wings are flexing their muscles or Anaheim has finally worn down.
Detroit’s power comes from its extraordinary depth on both sides of the ice. This is a club that goes four lines deep at all times to form its potent attack. And the Red Wings are not against doling out a hit or three when it’s needed.
They’ve used that depth to beat down the Ducks over the last two games by outhitting them, 55-43. And the Wings have made life hell on Anaheim’s defense by dropping 78 shots on goal in Games 4 and 5. Even more impressive about the recent turn is that the Red Wings have been without regular players like Brian Rafalski, Andreas Lilja, Tomas Kopecky and Kris Draper – all of them have been injured.
The physical toll has been apparent for the Ducks. Ryan Getzlaf has been dealing with flu symptoms for a while now. Couple that with the Wings’ punishing style and Getzlaf failed to get a point last Sunday for the first time in nine games. Also, he’s had just two SOG over the last three matches; Getzlaf had eight shots on goal for Games 1 and 2.
All signs point to Anaheim leaving Jonas Hiller in net. It’s hard to blame Randy Carlyle for that after Hiller stopped 37 of the 40 shots he saw on Sunday. To get the Ducks to Game 7, Hiller must learn from his mistakes.
The young Swiss netminder has plenty of speed to move to each side of the ice and even stops most of he shots fired low on him. What Hiller can’t seem to stop for the life of him is anyone going top shelf. Detroit has taken note of this problem and made Hiller pay on a few occasions in the last two contests.
It looks as though the betting shops are expecting Detroit to lick its wounds for the conference finals by making them a $1.55 road “chalk,” with a total of 5 ½.
Early movement shows the public is taking the Ducks to win at home for a plus-130 return (risk $100 to win $130).
Why is there so much money going towards Anaheim? We could go with the whole backs against the wall thing, but that’s way too cliché.
Bettors should focus on numbers…the cold, hard numbers. When you look at this contest that way, you’ll find out that the Ducks flat out own Game 6. They are 5-1in franchise history when playing in sixth-games. Also, Anaheim has never lost a Game 6 that was played at the Honda Center (4-0).
Be sure to catch this game at 10:05 p.m. EDT on Versus.
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Boston Bruins vs. Carolina Hurricanes
The Bruins defeated Carolina 4-0 as a -210 favorite in Game 5 on Sunday. The four goals scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (5).
Phil Kessel scored a pair of goals for Boston and Tim Thomas stopped all 19 shots he faced to post the shutout.
Cam Ward made 36 saves for Carolina in the loss.
Team records:
Boston: 53-19-10
Carolina: 45-30-7
Boston most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Ottawa are 5-5
After playing Carolina are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
Carolina most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Boston are 7-3
After playing Boston are 8-2
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Boston is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Boston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games
Carolina is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games when playing at home against Boston
Carolina is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Boston
Detroit Red Wings vs. Anaheim Ducks
The Red Wings defeated Anaheim 4-1 as a -240 favorite in Game 5 on Sunday. The five goals scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (5.5).
Henrik Zetterberg recorded a goal and two assists for Detroit, while Chris Osgood made 16 saves in the win.
Ryan Whitney scored the Ducks' lone goal and Jonas Hiller made 34 saves.
Team records:
Detroit: 51-21-10
Anaheim: 42-33-7
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Edmonton are 6-4
After playing Anaheim are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
Anaheim most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
After playing Detroit are 4-6
After a loss are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Detroit is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Detroit is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Anaheim's last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit
Anaheim is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Anaheim is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
Anaheim is 12-5-1 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Detroit
BOSTON vs. CAROLINA
Boston is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games
Carolina is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games when playing at home against Boston
DETROIT vs. ANAHEIM
Detroit is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Anaheim
Detroit is 5-12-1 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
Anaheim is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
Anaheim is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Red Wings Rafalski possible for Game 6
ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP) -Detroit defenseman Brian Rafalski could be back in the lineup Tuesday night when the Red Wings look to eliminate the Anaheim Ducks in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals.
Rafalski practiced with the Red Wings on Monday after skating on Sunday. He has been sidelined throughout the second-round series - which Detroit leads 3-2 - with an upper-body injury.
''Obviously if the coaches and myself feel I can contribute in any way, there's a good chance I'll play,'' Rafalski said after the Red Wings' 30-minute practice.
While Rafalski may be returning, Red Wings coach Mike Babcock indicated that center Kris Draper, who has missed the series with an upper-body injury, will not be available for Game 6.
BOSTON (59-20-0-12, 130 pts.) at CAROLINA (52-34-0-8, 112 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 52-42 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 34-22 ATS (+2.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
CAROLINA is 47-32 ATS (+92.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 25-20 ATS (+1.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CAROLINA is 18-10 ATS (+29.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 32-8 ATS (+17.7 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
BOSTON is 45-22 ATS (+16.0 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 9-8 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 9-8-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.3 Units)
DETROIT (58-22-0-11, 127 pts.) at ANAHEIM (48-37-0-8, 104 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 71-70 ATS (-41.6 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 22-16 ATS (+50.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
ANAHEIM is 157-148 ATS (+347.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
DETROIT is 65-23 ATS (+17.8 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 8-12 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 12-11-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
11 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.5 Units)
Boston at Carolina
Boston:
32-8 SU after a win by 2+ goals
41-17 SU off a win
Carolina:
0-5 SU at home off a loss by 3+ goals
32-49 SU after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6
Anaheim at Detroit
Detroit:
4-7 SU at Anaheim
14-17 SU after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8
Anaheim:
7-1 SU revenging BB losses
27-19 SU after playing a road game