Red Wings vs. Penguins - Game 3
By Judd Hall
The more things change, the more they stay the same. At least that’s what it looks like after two games in the Stanley Cup Final. Last season, Detroit surged out to a 2-0 lead to the Penguins after outscoring them 7-0. This time around the Red Wings are still up 2-0 in the best-of-seven series, but at least the Pens lost by a combined score of 6-2. Baby steps, right?
So why have the Penguins faltered at the start of this series? You could point to the near misses that Pittsburgh had while on the attack in Game 2 of which there were many. The majority of missed opportunities came off of Sidney Crosby’s stick.
“Sid the Kid” was determined to make amends for a quiet outing in the opening came. He did just that as he got five shots at the net, but has yet to light the little red lamp.
Evgeni Malkin certainly has made sure that nobody forgets that he’s involved in the Stanley Cup Final. The Russian sniper was able to match his goal output from last year’s series in just the second game of the rematch. He even made sure that the Wings know that they’ll hear from him and the rest of the team with a late-game fist fight with Henrik Zetterberg.
As big a statement as Malkin made with his fists, Chris Osgood is making a bigger one with his play. Osgood stopped 31 of the 32 shots attempted by the Pens in Game 2, matching his effort in the first contest. For the playoffs, Osgood has a .930 save percentage and goals against average of 1.95.
While Osgood has played fantastic, Marc-Andre Fleury has not enjoyed his second go round on hockey’s biggest stage. In the first test, Fleury allowed three goals on some strange bounces. In Game 2, he looked flat in giving up another three goals. Two of the scores that he has surrendered have come against season long minor leaguer Justin Abdelkader, which makes you wonder where Fleury’s head is at right now.
Luckily for him and the rest of the Penguins, they’re heading back to the familiar surroundings of Mellon Arena for Games 3 and 4. Pittsburgh has enjoyed playing at home recently as they’ve posted a 10-2 mark in its last 12 matches. However, those two defeats did come during the postseason.
The sportsbooks aren’t paying too much attention to those setbacks by installing the Pens as $1.50 home favorites (risk $150 to win $100) with the total coming in at 5 ½. You have to think that the betting shops might have toyed with pushing that number down to five, but all the empty net time the Wings got at the end of the both games kept it sessile.
Pittsburgh has to like its chance to pull closer to an even slate in this series for Tuesday. Fleury has posted a 20-11-2 mark and GAA of 2.37 at “The Igloo” during the 2008-2009 campaign. The Penguins also have the added confidence that they took Game 3 of last year’s Final 3-2 as $1.20 home faves.
Something else that we should keep in mind here is that Detroit has dropped the last two Game 3s that they’ve played in the postseason.
You’re best value on the board right now is taking Pitt on the puck line for a plus-190 return (-1 ½, risk $100 to win $190). Should you decide to pull the trigger on this play, you’ll be in for some handwringing as the Penguins are just 3-5 during the Stanley Cup Playoffs at home on the puck line.
So what’s the wisest bet on the board for you? The ‘under’ has been a solid selection over the past few years between these clubs, going 8-2-2 in the last 12 meetings.
The puck drops on Game 3 at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Versus.
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: Stanley Cup finals Game 3
By DUSTIN NIELSON
Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins (-150, 5.5)
Malkin will play in Game 3
Evgeni Malkin will be in the lineup despite instigating a fight with Henrik Zetterberg in the final 19 seconds of Game 2. Colin Campell, the NHL’s Director of Hockey Operations, rescinded the automatic one-game suspension.
"None of the criteria in this rule applied in this situation. Suspensions are applied under this rule when a team attempts to send a message in the last five minutes by having a player instigate a fight,” explained Campbell.
Earlier in the playoffs Campbell issued a not so stern warning: “General Managers and coaches of playoff teams have been told we would not tolerate attempts by clubs to 'send a message' late in a game when the outcome had been determined, organizations, players and coaches will be held accountable for such actions."
Now, if it were a lesser player - like say Matt Cooke - initiating a scrap in the final minute, would there be any question about a possible suspension?
Wings not flying yet
The Red Wings have a 2-0 series lead and have held one of the league’s deadliest offenses to just a pair of goals. Detroit players still feel they can improve their game.
“I still think we can play a lot better, if we can minimize our mistakes, I think it will help us and when they get odd man rushes. They get a lot of momentum and speed,” said Zetterberg.
Brian Raflaski agrees with Zetterberg that the Wings have to play better as things shift to Pittsburgh. The pint-sized blueliner says the only difference so far is that they have been able to capitalize on their bounces while the Penguins haven’t.
Chris Os-great
Wings netminder Chris Osgood has been spectacular through the first two games of the Cup Final. Osgood’s number are some of the best ever seen in the NHL postseason.
He’s stopped 62 of the 64 shots from Crosby & Company, improving his already eye popping playoff stats (.930 save percentage and 1.95 goals against average). Osgood’s teammates never lost confidence in the three-time Stanley Cup champion despite his struggles through the regular season.
"We had no doubts whatsoever he was the guy for us," Niklas Kronwall said. "He's showing why he's a Hall of Fame goalie. It’s nice to know that he is going to come up with the saves at the times when you really need it."
Calling Sidney...where are you?
If the Penguins have any hope of coming back from a 2-0 deficit their captain needs to step up and deliver. Sidney Crosby has no points and seven shots through along with a -1 plus/minus rating in the first two games. The shift back to the Igloo should help free him up a little, with the last change allowing the Pens to keep Crosby away from Henrik Zetterberg’s line.
Rafalski and Nicklas Lidstrom have had the task of shutting him down so far and they know it will be difficult in Games 3 and 4.
"They're going to have the last change. So we'll be playing different match-ups and will have to be sharp,” said Rafalski after Game 2.
Datsyuk watch continues
Mike Babcock says the status of Hart Trophy Candidate Pavel Datsyuk is still up in the air.
“We'll re-evaluate Datsyuk the morning of Game 3, but obviously being up 2-0, you know, that buys us a couple of extra days if we need it,” Babcock told reporters Monday morning.
It appears as though Kris Draper is ready to go, but Babcock says with a 2-0 lead and the fourth line playing so well, there is really no read to rush him back.
Stacked odds
The Wings haven’t won a game in this series away from their home rink, but history tells us they’ve already put this baby to bed.
There have been 32 cases of teams jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the Cup finals and only once did a trailing club climb out of the hole to lift Lord Stanley’s Grail.
Pittsburgh focus is on Game 3, not series
By Doug Upstone
The Pittsburgh Penguins players are saying all the right things, it's just nobody is listening. The Penguins have had bad luck with unusual bounces, ringing the Detroit goalie cage like it's a doorbell and outplaying the defending Stanly Cup champions for extended periods of time. One problem, Pittsburgh still trails like they did last year 2-0 after two games in the Finals.
Sidney Crosby has had point blank chances all around the Red Wings net, the problem has been, Detroit bodies have been stacked like logs for a log cabin house, with goalie Chris Osgood acting as insulation.
“I think we outplayed them,” Penguins defenseman Hall Gill said. “Last year, we got outplayed pretty badly.”
Those are the kinds of things you say when you have out-shot the opposition 64 -56 and been outscored 6-2 in the first two contests.
Evgeni Malkin is not the pushover he was last year at this time, however he could hardly be called a force and rightfully should be suspended for Game 3, except for another quick NHL office change. Malkin took out his frustration on Detroit‘s Henrik Zetterberg in the closing seconds of last conflict and should have gotten instigator penalty, which carries an automatic one-game suspension when such an occurrence happen in the last five minutes.
However, this is the NHL, who changed around Finals schedule to increase viewership at the last minute and they offered this as reason. “Suspensions are applied under this rule when a team attempts to send a message in the last five minutes by having a player instigate a fight [or] when a player seeks retribution for a prior incident. Neither was the case here," league disciplinarian Colin Campbell.
Campbell must have watching the Travel Channel if he didn't believe Malkin wasn't trying to send a message. You can bet the Phoenix Suns wished Campbell was handing out discipline when Robert Horry deliberately threw Steve Nash into scorers table a couple seasons ago and Suns players came to his rescue, drawing similar automatic suspensions, which was enforced.
Pittsburgh returns home, after what amounts to a four game road trip, where they are 6-2 in the postseason and winners of 10 of last 12. The Penguins acted angry and frustrated and are 9-2 off a loss by two or more goals on the road. They can be as hyped up as they want, but unless netminder Marc-Andre Fleury starts playing like he's in the Finals, instead of like a member of the New York Islanders, it's a moot point.
Fleury played very skitterish in opener and was better Sunday, until rookie Justin Abdelkader tossed a half-hearted knuckling shot at Fleury, who swung and missed, giving Detroit a huge two goal lead. While the NBC commentators said the Pittsburgh defensemen should have done a better job (and they should have), this is for the Cup and you NEVER allow such a soft goal, IF you have ambitions of being champions.
The Red Wings are ludicrous 18-3 in last 21 Finals encounters and they have been smarter, more productive and had superior goaltending to this juncture.
The way Detroit plays keep away with the puck, it reminds one of watching taller children playing “keep away” with a ball, with younger and smaller kids chasing them around, hollering at them to give up the ball. This strategy has really paid off at the end of games, when tuckered out Pens defensemen have no legs and makes miscues.
Crosby and company might be 12-1 in home games revenging two straight losses where opponent scored three or more goals, nevertheless Pittsburgh is up against a harrowing situation, as only one of 32 teams have lost first two games on the road and come back to be crowned the champions of hockey and that was 38 years ago when Montreal accomplished the feat.
Pittsburgh is left with little choice other than to place all energy into Game 3, where they are -150 money line favorites with total of 5.5 at Betonline.com. Possibly returning to playoff favorites will help Penguins who are 19-5 in that role. It would appear Pitt has to play Over to win and they are 9-2 OVER after three or more consecutive Unders this season.
Despite playing so effectively, Detroit has lost last four games as underdog and will try to maintain playing so controlled and are 10-2 UNDER in road games after allowing two goals or less in four straight tilts.
Amazingly, the Versus Network will have the next two games, starting at 8:05 Eastern in western Pennsylvania, where the Wings have triumphed six of eight times.
Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Red Wings defeated Pittsburgh 3-1 as a -150 favorite on Sunday to take a 2-0 series lead. The four goals scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (5.5).
Chris Osgood made 31 saves for Detroit and Justin Abdelkader scored his second goal of the series in that victory.
Evgeni Malkin scored the Penguins' lone goal, and Marc-Andre Fleury made 23 saves in the loss.
Team records:
Detroit: 51-21-10
Pittsburgh: 45-28-9
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Edmonton are 6-4
After playing Pittsburgh are 7-3
After a win are 7-3
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Ottawa are 6-4
After playing Detroit are 5-5
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Detroit is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
Pittsburgh is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games when playing Detroit
Next up:
Pittsburgh home to Detroit, Thursday, June 4
DETROIT vs. PITTSBURGH
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games when playing Detroit
Stanley Cup Finals
Detroit at Pittsburgh
Detroit:
3-8 SU Away off 3+ home wins
14-3 Over off BB Unders
Pittsburgh:
9-1 SU playing with triple revenge
20-8 SU off BB losses
NHL Playoffs
Red Wings are 7-2-1 in last ten games vs Pittsburgh, 3-0-1 this season, outscoring Penguins 15-9, with first two games of this series both 3-1 in Detroit's favor. Red Wings won nine of last 11 games overall. Teams that won first two series games in this year's playoffs are 4-6 in Game 3; this is where Penguins have to make a stand- teams don't come back from 3-0 deficits in playoff hockey. Pittsburgh is 6-2 at home in playoffs; Wings are 4-3 on the road in the playoffs. Bigger game for Penguins tonight.
DETROIT (65-23-0-12, 142 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (57-34-0-10, 124 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 72-71 ATS (-42.5 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
PITTSBURGH is 118-85 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 21-7 ATS (+11.4 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 this season.
PITTSBURGH is 79-49 ATS (+0.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 21-9 ATS (+9.5 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 30-9 ATS (+18.5 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 31-14 ATS (+15.5 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 25-10 ATS (+12.5 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 84-71 ATS (-17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 27-15 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 16-4 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-3 ATS (+13.1 Units) in the Stanley Cup finals since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 8-3 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 8-3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.0 Units)