Do or Die for Pittsburgh
By Judd Hall
All the Red Wings heard after dropping Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final was how slow they were and how much older they are than Pittsburgh. Head coach Mike Babcock saw and heard that as well. So he did away with the morning skate last Friday in hopes his team would be ready for a pivotal Game 5.
The move worked as Detroit certainly didn’t look anything like the sluggish squad that played in the Steel City as they rolled to a 5-0 win in Game 5 as $1.75 home “chalk.”
The Wings took advantage of playing in front of a raucous crowd at Joe Louis Arena, which clearly has had an effect on Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury.
Fleury’s body of work during the postseason has been respectable with a 2.76 goals against average and .904 save percentage. Yet he just crumbles when playing in Detroit. Fleury has a save percentage of .857 and a GAA of 4.31. Those numbers include his Game 5 performance where he allowed five goals on 21 shots before being yanked for Mathieu Garon after just 36 minutes of work.
We can’t pin all of the blame on the goaltending, the offense left a lot to be desired on Saturday night. Evgeni Malkin had been playing like a man possessed in the first four games of this series (2 goals- 5 assists- 7 points). Sidney Crosby looked like he was ready to heat up after scoring his first goal of the series in Game 4. Yet that pair of studs got just one shot on goal each over the weekend.
Pittsburgh’s top shooter for Game 5 was defenseman Sergei Gonchar, who fired four pucks at Chris Osgood. Now I don’t have a problem with a blueliner shooting from the point, but he missed from 37, 62, 66 and 93 feet out. Not the exactly the highest percentage attempts one could make.
Osgood was able to record his 15th career postseason shutout (22-of-22) because of a defense that was absolutely relentless. Detroit was able to take the puck from the Pens 12 times and they also outhit them 42-35.
The biggest story of Game 5 for the Red Wings wasn’t how Osgood played or the brilliance of their defense. Rather it was the return of Hart Trophy finalist Pavel Datsyuk to the lineup for the first time in this series.
Datsyuk was plugged into the Wings’ top line with Henrik Zetterberg and Daniel Cleary to give the club an added boost. The move paid immediate dividends with Datsyuk assisting Cleary on the first score of the evening. He also got credit for a helper on Brian Rafalski’s power play goal in the second period.
The Red Wings had gone just 1-for-10 on the power play in the first four games of the Stanley Cup Final. That slump seems like a distant memory though as Rafalski was one of three skaters to score a power play goal on Detroit’s nine opportunities.
So now the Penguins have their proverbial backs against the proverbial wall as one loss will finish the season. The do have the benefit of playing this do-or-die match in Pittsburgh. The betting shops have taken notice of this by installing the Pens as $1.40 home favorites with the total holding steady at 5 ½.
A familiar setting could do Fleury and the gang some good here as they’re 8-2 in Mellon Arena during the playoffs. Pittsburgh’s starting netminder has been in goal for all 10 games at home, saving 90.8 percent of the shots he’s seen and had a GAA of 2.46.
The Penguins should also fare better on special teams now that they’ll be back home. On the road, Pittsburgh is converting 20 percent of its power plays. They’re scoring 22.4 percent of the time at home with the advantage.
Bettors have been able to ignore the Pens’ play in the Motor City in this series easily as the home team has held serve in each game. You have to go back to the 2003 Final between the Mighty Ducks and Devils for the last time that the home teams won each contest. Babcock was Anaheim’s coach for that series. One of the players on his squad is also the man who now stands behind Pittsburgh’s bench, Dan Bylsma.
The gambling public hasn’t gone wrong when playing the puck line in this series. The favorites have covered the 1 ½ goal margin in each contest for a tidy profit of 930 units. Pittsburgh will certainly be an attractive play on the puck line for a plus-200 return (risk $100 to win $200) should that trend hold true.
Detroit can very well rain on that puck line parade in this spot as 14 of the 19 teams that have won Game 5 in a series that’s tied 2-2 have gone on to win the Stanley Cup. And you can’t forget that the Red Wings skated the hardware around Mellon Arena in Game 6 last season.
You should know that the team that has won Game 5 of the Final has gone 6-4 in Game 6 since 1986. However, the squad who has taken the fifth match is 1-4 in the last five Game 6s, including the Penguins last season. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2-1 in the last seven sixth games played in the Stanley Cup Final.
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: Stanley Cup finals Game 6
By ARI BAUM-COHEN
Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins (-140, 5.5): Matchup and trends
The Hank and Pav show
Pavel Datsyuk returned in a big way on Saturday, registering two assists and a +2 rating in 17:38 of ice time. Datsyuk, along with linemates Henrik Zetterberg and Dan Cleary, were the catalysts in Detroit’s 5-0 shutout of the Penguins.
“(I am) feeling good and more confident,” said Pavel Datsyuk on Sunday.
Mike Babcock is unsure whether he’ll pair up Datsyuk and Zetterberg for Game 6.
The Os-good, the Os-bad, and the Os-ugly
Chris Osgood played well in the first two games of this series, but has struggled on the road during the postseason. The Detroit goalie is 11-1 with a 1.40 goals against average at home and 4-5 with a 2.91 GAA on the road. Osgood has looked nothing like the netminder who had a 3.09 GAA and .887 save percentage during the regular season.
Don’t believe the hype
Pens defenseman Brooks Orpik commented after Game 4 that the Red Wings “looked a little fatigued” and that Henrik Zetterberg “looks so tired out there.”
The Wings, unfazed and looking fresh, dominated Game 5, reroute to the 5-0 win.
Detroit looked tired on the road because they were struggling to match up against Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin without the benefit of last change. The line juggling should be an issue at the Igloo again on Tuesday.
Off the deep end
The return of Pavel Datsyuk after seven games improves the depth of an already impressive Detroit team. Whether he plays as a center or on the wing, the contributions of this Hart Trophy nominee can’t be overlooked.
The Red Wings can roll out three solid scoring lines putting a bigger strain on Pittsburgh’s defensemen. The Pens blueliners must continue to hit hard and block shots.
Brooks Orpik leads the playoffs in hits and five of the top seven shot blockers in this postseason belong to Pittsburgh.
Special teams
Pittsburgh must find a way to score using its special teams. Detroit has struggled on the penalty kill for the entire playoffs (72.1 percent). Pittsburgh has taken advantage, scoring four power play goals in 11 opportunities (36.4 percent).
Pittsburgh forward Jordan Staal has demonstrated the ability to score short-handed. The youngster scored seven short-handed markers as a rookie in 2006-2007 and scored the game-tying goal while down a man in Game 4.
Other notes
- The home team has won all five games in this series.
- Detroit is 0-6 in its last six games as a road underdog.
- Pittsburgh is 4-0 in its last four playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
- The Penguins are 8-1 in their last nine games when their opponents score five goals or more in their previous game.
- The over is 4-0 in Detroit’s last four road games.
- The under is 7-1 in Pittsburgh’s last eight following a loss of three or more goals
DETROIT (66-25-0-12, 144 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (59-35-0-10, 128 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 72-72 ATS (-43.6 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
DETROIT is 3-9 ATS (-7.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 120-86 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 23-7 ATS (+13.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 this season.
PITTSBURGH is 25-8 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 22-9 ATS (+10.5 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 30-11 ATS (+16.4 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 50-35 ATS (+88.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 24-10 ATS (+12.3 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
PITTSBURGH is 32-14 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 26-10 ATS (+13.5 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 67-53 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 29-16 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 68-24 ATS (+18.7 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 9-5 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 9-5-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.9 Units)
Stanley Cup Finals
Detroit at Pittsburgh
Detroit:
4-10 SU Away as a #2 seed
15-8 Under vs. Eastern Conference
Pittsburgh:
9-1 SU off shutout loss
28-7 SU at home playing with same season revenge
DETROIT vs. PITTSBURGH
Detroit is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Detroit
NHL Finals
Home side is 5-0 in this series, with Penguins winning 4-2 in both games played here. After being 1-10 on power play in series in first four games, Detroit went 3-9 with man advantage in Game 5, with referee calling two minor penalties on Wings, nine on Pittsburgh. Odd stat: home team has outscored visitors 10-1 in second period in series. Game 5 was first time in series Red Wings led after first period. There have been four goals in third period in whole series (2-2).
Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Red Wings scored three power-play goals in a four-goal second period to defeat the Penguins 5-0 in Game 5 on Saturday and take a 3-2 lead in the series.
The Red Wings won that game as -165 favorites at Joe Louis Arena, while the five goals fell UNDER the night's posted over/under (5.5).
Dan Cleary, Valtteri Filppula, Niklas Kronwall, Brian Rafalski, and Henrik Zetterberg potted the goals for Detroit. Chris Osgood made 21 saves to post the shutout.
Marc-Andre Fleury gave up five goals on 22 shots and was replaced in the third period. The Penguins were +145 underdogs in that game.
Team records:
Detroit: 51-21-10
Pittsburgh: 45-28-9
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Edmonton are 6-4
After playing Pittsburgh are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 8-2
Before playing Ottawa are 6-4
After playing Detroit are 6-4
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Detroit is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games