Wednesday's Best NHL Bets
Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins (-260, 5.5)
The Montreal Canadiens got a huge lift from the crowd in a must-win Game 6 at the Bell Centre Monday night. The 21,000 screaming fans stood and waved towels throughout the game, including for an entire commercial break, and were rewarded with a 4-3 Canadiens victory, forcing a Game 7 at Mellon Arena.
“When it gets loud, you can’t hear your teammates out there, but you’ve got to keep your composure,” Penguins forward Craig Adams told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “Those are the momentum swings that happen in every game.”
But even more problematic for the Pens has been the impressive performance of diminutive Habs forward Michael Cammalleri, who notched his 10th and 11th goals of the playoffs Monday night. After going scoreless in the last nine games of the regular season, Cammalleri found his stride at exactly the right time.
“I guess I saved some for the playoffs”, Cammalleri told the Canadian Press. “When (the puck) is going in, everything goes in, and when it doesn’t, nothing does. That’s how it goes for goal-scorers.”
Sidney Crosby may have ended his four-year scoring drought in Montreal by netting Pittsburgh’s first goal of the night, but the Penguins’ young star has been well contained by the Habs in this series. Crosby even showed some signs of frustration when he delivered a post-game cross check to Tomas Plekanec after Monday’s tilt.
Expect the Habs defense to tighten up even more on the Penguins’ forwards, especially if defensemen Hal Gill and Andrei Markov, both listed as questionable for Wednesday’s Game 7, are back in the lineup.
Pick: Canadiens
Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers (-165, 5)
The Philadelphia Flyers aren’t going away. After falling behind 3-0 in their series against the Boston Bruins, most thought the Flyers were done. But they earned a 5-4 overtime win in Game 4 which gave them enough confidence to rout the Bruins 4-0 in Game 5 Monday night.
Philadelphia got a huge scare Monday when goalie Brian Boucher went down with injuries to both his knees in the second period. Michael Leighton, who hadn’t played since suffering a high ankle sprain March 16, took over in net with the Flyers clinging to a 1-0 lead. He made 14 saves to preserve the shutout.
“The first few minutes, I was pretty nervous”, Leighton told the Philadelphia Daily News. “You’re one mistake away from tying it up and it’s a different ball game. But we scored some goals and played well defensively… and made things easier.”
The Flyers have dealt with injuries throughout the regular season and the playoffs. But every time one player goes down another one steps up.
“The path that we’ve taken is not the ideal path, but it is our path,” head coach Peter Laviolette told the Philadelphia Daily News. “Guys have answered the bell every step of the way. We’re still here.”
Expect them to answer the bell once again in front of an appreciative home crowd Wednesday night.
Pick: Flyers
What Bettors Meed to Know: Canadiens at Penguins
Who’s the biggest threat?
Heading into this Eastern Conference semifinal, all the attention was on Penguins' superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and how the Canadiens planned to stop them.
Perhaps the media should have focused on Montreal forward Mike Cammalleri and how Pittsburgh would handle the diminutive center. Cammalleri is a one-man wrecking crew this postseason, putting up 16 points (11 goals, five assists) – six of those goals coming against the Penguins. To put his contributions into perspective: Montreal has only scored 14 goals this series.
Cammalleri added to his goal total with a pair of scores in Monday’s 4-3 win in Game 6, tying the series at 3-3 and sending the conference semifinal back to the Steel City for Game 7 Wednesday night. He opened scoring just over a minute into the contest then added another goal mid way through the second period.
"It feels good," Cammalleri told the media. "I try to sit and dwell on things like that, but we need goals to win right now. Nothing really matters up until now. Now all that matters is how you prepare for Game 7. It is great, but none of it really matters right now."
This will be the Habs’ second Game 7 showdown of the playoffs. They eliminated the No. 1 ranked Washington Capitals with a 2-1 victory in Game 7 in the first round.
Sidney sighting
After going nearly unnoticed in the first five games of the series, Crosby finally showed up on the score sheet in Game 6 Monday.
He netted a first-period gem and added an assist on Kristopher Letang’s power-play goal in the second period to up his point total to a measly five points in six games against Montreal. Crosby came into the second round of the playoffs on fire, putting up 14 points (five goals, nine assists) versus the Ottawa Senators in the conference quarterfinals.
"It was nice to see one go in," Crosby told the Toronto Sun after Game 6. "You work hard to get chances, so yeah, for sure, it always feels good to score."
Crosby isn’t just missing chances or getting stumped by red-hot Canadiens goalie Jaroslav Halak. Montreal has done an incredible job keeping an eye on the Penguins captain, limiting him to just 12 shots on goal for the series. He has been held to one shot in four of the six games versus the Canadiens.
"That wasn't something that I kept thinking about," Crosby told reporters when asked about his scoring slump. "I just wanted to generate more and more (chances)."
Crosby’s partner in crime, Malkin, has also been a no-show for most of the conference semis. The hulking forward has just one goal and two assists with a minus-2 plus/minus rating. Malkin picked up eight points in the six games against the Senators.
"I think everybody's playing well," Letang told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette in defense of his teammates.
"We all look at statistics and numbers. I think in the playoffs that's not a good way (to judge players). You should look at the work they do on the ice, the space they create for us. I think they've been playing well."
Offensive defense
Whether or not the finger should be pointing at the Pittsburgh blueline or goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, something needs to happen to the Penguins defense between now and the end of Game 7 Wednesday.
Pittsburgh gave up four goals on just 25 shots Monday night, including watching the Habs score on their very first shot of the game. Montreal’s frontline did a great job of crowding Fleury’s crease while the Pittsburgh defense appeared to screen their own goaltender at times. The Pens blueline was careless with the puck and paid for its sloppy play.
"If you look at all four of their goals, it was our turnovers [that caused them]," defenseman Brooks Orpik told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "It wasn't them creating much in our zone. It was us not managing the puck well. We turned the puck over four times, and they scored four times."
Fleury has been inconsistent over the course of the second round. He put up stellar performances in Games 3 and 5 but has allowed three or more goals in the four other contests. He’s been in the shadow of counterpart Jaroslav Halak, who has put Montreal on his back in the playoffs.
Fleury is facing an average of 25.5 shots per game in the second round while Halak is being peppered with almost 31 shots a night versus the Penguins, boasting a 2.45 goals against average and a .922 save percentage in the conference semifinals.
Game 7 at the Igloo
By Judd Hall
It sounds like a broken record but the Canadiens have forced a Game 7 in this year’s postseason.
Montreal forced the deciding contesting by holding on for a 4-3 win over the Penguins as a $1.50 home underdog on Monday night.
While Pittsburgh can be considered the better offense, it hasn’t been all it is cracked up to be in this series. They’ve only scored more than three goals twice in six games. A major reason for the Pens’ inability to keep the scoreboard operator awake is the ineffectiveness of their stars.
Sidney Crosby had scored six goals during the playoffs, while Evgeni Malkin has lit the lamp five times. In this Eastern Conference Semifinal, this awesome duo has scored one goal each. That is not going to cut it if Pittsburgh wants to repeat as Stanley Cup champs.
We can’t pin the blame all on the offense for the Pens’ inability to close out the series. Nope…their defense has been iffy. Marc-Andre Fleury has played more like a flower than a goaltender in this series. He gave up four goals on 25 shots in Game 6 with the Habs, which doesn’t sound as bad as it actually was at the Bell Centre. Fleury has a .914 save percentage for this round, just above his .899 save percentage for the entire postseason.
Fleury hasn’t been able to find an answer for Michael Cammalleri, who is playing like a man possessed right now. Cammalleri scored 26 goals during an injury shortened regular season campaign. All he has done in the playoffs is sneak the puck past opposing goalies 11 times (leads all playoff scorers), six of which have come against Pittsburgh.
Of course, we can’t forget about Jaroslav Halak between the pipes for Montreal. Halak leads all netminders still in the playoffs with a .933 save percentage that has led to a 2.45 goals against average.
Despite the inspired play out of the Canadiens, most oddsmakers have made Pittsburgh a heavy $2.45 home favorite (risk $245 to win $100) with a total of 5 ½. Gamblers can take the Habs to pull off another miracle that will pay out at plus-225 (risk $100 to win $225).
It won’t take bettors much time to remember that Montreal was in this spot earlier in this postseason. They became the first eighth-seed to beat a No. 1 seed after being down three-games-to-one. And you have to wonder if they are a team of destiny.
Pittsburgh had to go on the road twice last year to win Game 7s en route to capturing its third championship. It’s certainly food for thought.
Home ice is not necessarily an advantage in the playoffs, as we’ve seen this year. But home ice is really lousy for the Penguins. They’ve held a do-or-die tilt at Mellon Arena four times in their history…Pittsburgh has lost all four of them.
What can help gamblers wanting to take the Pens at the betting window is that they are 3-0 straight up and 2-1 on the puck line (-1 ½-goals) in games as home faves after a loss as road favorites this season.
Montreal is 4-3 SU as a road ‘dog when coming off of a win as a home pup this season. However, the Canadiens are 7-0 on the puck line (+1 ½-goals) in those spots.
vegasinsider.com
Montreal Canadiens vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Montreal Canadiens and the Pittsburgh Penguins will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Mellon Arena.
Mike Cammalleri potted two goals to lift the Canadiens past the Penguins 4-3 in Game 6 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series on Monday night.
Montreal won as +155 home underdogs, while the teams played OVER the 5.5-goal total posted by oddsmakers.
Andrei Kostitsyn had two helpers for the Canadiens, who evened the best-of-seven series at three games apiece with the upset.
Sidney Crosby had a goal and an assist for Pittsburgh, while Sergei Gonchar put up two assists for the Penguins.
Team records:
Montreal: 39-33-10
Pittsburgh: 47-28-7
Montreal most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
After playing Pittsburgh are 3-7
After a win are 3-7
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Ottawa are 7-3
After playing Montreal are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Montreal is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games at home
Boston Bruins vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The Boston Bruins and the Philadelphia Flyers will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Wachovia Center.
Brian Boucher and Michael Leighton combined to make 23 saves to get the shutout as the Flyers downed the Bruins in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series on Monday night.
Philadelphia cashed as +120 road underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 5-goal total set by oddsmakers.
Simon Gagne had two goals for the Flyers, who got a goal and an assist from Ville Leino in the payday.
Tuukka Rask stopped 27 shots for Boston, which now leads the best-of-seven series 3-2.
Team records:
Boston: 39-30-13
Philadelphia: 41-35-6
Boston most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Ottawa are 3-7
After playing Philadelphia are 4-6
After a loss are 8-2
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Tampa Bay are 6-4
After playing Boston are 4-6
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Boston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Boston
Philadelphia is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
Next up:
Philadelphia at Boston, Friday, May 14
BOSTON (46-33-0-14, 106 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (47-38-0-7, 101 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 46-47 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 7-2 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 91-89 ATS (-94.2 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 10-7 (+2.2 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-7-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.9 Units)
MONTREAL (46-38-0-11, 103 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (54-32-0-8, 116 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 59-22 ATS (+27.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 45-21 ATS (+17.8 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 46-49 ATS (+106.0 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 13-13 ATS (+35.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 28-25 ATS (-25.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 8-10 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 10-8-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.7 Units)
MONTREAL vs. PITTSBURGH
Montreal is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal
BOSTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Boston
Philadelphia is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
Eastern Conference Playoffs Second Round, Game Six (Boston Leads, 3-2)
BOSTON at PHILADELPHIA
BOSTON: 7-2 SU away after allowing 4+ goals
PHILADELPHIA: 10-18 SU off a combined score of 4 goals or less
Eastern Conference Playoffs Second Round, Game Seven (Series Tied, 3-3)
MONTREAL at PITTSBURGH
MONTREAL: 9-2 Under away after scoring 4+ goals
PITTSBURGH: 30-8 SU at home off a loss
NHL News and Notes
Pressure starting to build on Boston team that had 3-0 series lead but has 3-2 lead now; Bruins won five of last seven games vs Philly; they were a man short for 14:20 (1-9) in Game 5, while on power play for just 2:39 (0-2). Boston is just 3-18 on power play in series (27:39). Boston has some injury issues, with Sturm, Krejci, McQuaid on shelf. Flyers are just 11-53 on power play in postseason after going 1-19 with man edge in last three games (34:16). Bruins only got 21 shots on goal in Game 4-- none of them went in the net.
Anything can happen in a Game 7; Montreal won last series after facing a 3-1 series deficit vs Washington, so they've got confidence vs Penguin squad that is just 3-3 at home in playoffs. Pittsburgh scored 11 goals in last five games, converting just four of last 19 on power play. Penguins outshot Montreal 37-18 in first period of last three games- they've come out flying, but got outshot 39-25 in third period of the last three games. Four of last five series games stayed under the total.