Caps and Pens in Game 7
By Judd Hall
Was there any other way for the NHL’s dream playoff series could end outside of a Game 7?
That’s what we’re going to get on Wednesday at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Versus when the Penguins face off against Washington for a berth in the Eastern Conference Final. All we can ask for is a final game that matches what we saw on Monday night.
The Capitals looked like a team that was ready to go out with a whimper as they were dominated by Pittsburgh in the opening period. They were outshot 18-5 in the first 20 minutes and couldn’t do anything right…especially on defense.
Washington’s defense has been burnt more than a few times by the Penguins’ forwards in this series. And those breakdowns have made Simeon Varlamov look his age. In the first two games of this Eastern Semifinal, the young netminder stopped 93 percent of the shots the Pens took. From Game 3 on, Varlamov has an 89.6 save percentage and bulbous 3.72 goals against average.
What could scare a few bettors off is how Varlamov did after the Caps’ rearguards starting holding tight after the first period of Game 6. Pittsburgh had just 24 shots on goal the rest of the way, but the Russian backstop still gave up another three scores.
Varlamov’s issues haven’t been as magnified as they would normally thanks to an offense that is getting production from everywhere. They’re even winning last night without Alex Ovechkin lighting the lamp.
The Capitals saw Viktor Kozlov get off the schneid with his first two goals against Pittsburgh in their 5-4 OT win as $1.30 road ‘dogs. Second liner Brooks Laich and grinder Tomas Fleischmann both scored as well. But the big hero was Ohio State’s own Dave Steckel, who put in the overtime winner, his third goal of the series. And even though he didn’t put in a goal himself, Ovechkin assisted on three of Washington’s five lamp lighters.
While head coach Bruce Boudreau is no doubt pleased with his team’s ancillary scoring, he wants the big guys to produce. Ovechkin has done his part during this series, but what about Alexander Semin and Mike Green?
Semin had five goals in the first round against the Rangers. In the current series he hasn’t scored once, but has six helpers to his credit. Green has been a bigger enigma. He’s been on the ice with an average of about 25 minutes of ice time, but he hasn’t tallied a goal against Pittsburgh. Green is taking just two shots per game right now and they haven’t had any real chance of going in.
Boudreau also has to decide whether or not bring enforcer Donald Brashear back into the fold for Wednesday night. The goon extraordinaire was suspended for shattering Blair Betts’ orbital bone in the first round versus the Rangers. Brashear’s punishment was a six-game suspension. That ban was up in time for him to play last Monday, but Brashear was a healthy scratch.
Brashear would definitely give the Caps some grit, but you have to think that he’ll be in a fish bowl for the refs. Is his insertion into the lineup worth an iffy penalty in a must-win situation?
Pittsburgh hasn’t had any problems getting its top attackers to punish the Capitals. Sidney Crosby has scored 10 goals during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, six alone against Washington. Evgeni Malkin is starting to play with some authority. The league’s top scorer had three assists in Game 6 and eight points for the second round.
The Pens have had their issues with getting more scoring out of the role players, however. Look at it this way: Crosby and Malkin have scored 16 goals between themselves…the rest of the team has 23 marks during the 2009 postseason.
What’s proven to be detrimental for Pitt is its defensive play in this series. Or to be more precise, the mental mistakes have hurt them. And it isn’t just the blue liners that are making errors; Marc-Andre Fleury has had issues.
Fleury has found himself out of position on more than one occasion in this series (I will admit that Varlamov has looked just as bad). Two glaring moments of mental breakdowns are his misplay of an unruly carom to Ovechkin for the first goal in Game 3 and Kozlov’s second score on Monday night. Although, that Kozlov goal was more defenseman Hal Gill’s fault for getting behind Fleury in the crease.
There have been worries abound when it comes to Sergei Gonchar for Pittsburgh. I can understand that since he’s arguably the Penguins’ best defender on their roster. But they need him more for his skills on the power play. The only thing is that they haven’t needed him for Games 5 and 6 as the Pens converted three of their seven advantages into goals.
Most betting shops have installed the Capitals as $1.40 home favorites (risk $140 to win $100) with the total holding strong at 5 ½.
You might want to think before you put money down on Washington to reach the Eastern Conference Final. History shows that the Caps might not be worth the grief.
The Caps have gone the full compliment of games in a series six times in their history. How many times have they won that deciding contest? Twice: They defeated the Flyers in the 1973 Patrick Division Semifinal and the Blueshirts in the first round of this year’s playoffs.
Then you have to take into consideration that the Penguins have won six of the seven postseason series that they’ve had against Washington. The Capitals’ lone triumph came in the opening round of the 1994 playoffs. And before I forget, Pittsburgh is 2-0 against the Caps in Game 7.
Bettors should focus more on the total here according to VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Marc Fox. “How they keep posting the total at 5 ½ is beyond me. These clubs are a match made in ‘over’ heaven.”
“These two teams have seen the ‘over’ hit in four of the last six games, with the combined scores of the past three matches posting no fewer than seven goals.” Fox adds, “The fact that the sportsbooks keep giving a low total means another gift for gamblers.”
You could get behind the thought of a low total just because of players not wanting to screw up on the big stage. The Las Vegas Hilton’s Jay Kornegay pointed out that you have to lay $130 on the ‘over’ to win $100. “Most of the money has come in for the ‘under’ despite all of the high scores. We’re expecting the same as both clubs should play a little tighter for Game 7.”
Fox isn’t buying into that. “These teams have been on edge for the past few games and given up easy goals due to mental lapses. Neither the Penguins or Capitals are going to play tight; they’ll just hope the mistakes don’t cost their team a win.”
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: Pens-Caps Game 7
By JON CAMPBELL
The NHL couldn’t have drawn it up any better if they used one of those erasable white boards with a hockey rink on it. The Pens and Caps are going to Game 7 in a series that is breaking television ratings records for hockey games in the U.S.
So far we’ve seen three overtimes and five of the first six games were decided by just one flicker of the goal light.
So what will go down in Game 7? We’ll help you decide.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals (-145, 5.5)
The goal is to score
If you’re not sure who to take Wednesday, you might want to start with the over/under. These two clubs have met 10 times this season and only twice have under bettors made away with the money.
Both unders came in this series and five goals were scored in each game with totals set at 5.5. Pittsburgh and Washington are averaging seven goals per game when they get together this season, not including shootout goals.
When stats lie
When you look at the numbers for this series, it’s hard to believe Washington ever had Pittsburgh on the ropes. The Pens outshot the Caps in every game – four times by double digits – and Washington has yet to gain more power plays in any game of the series.
Washington holds the advantage in one key area though - face offs. The Caps have won the quick draw battle in the last five games.
Injury front
It looks like Sergei Gonchar, the Pens top defenseman and power play quarterback, will miss his third straight game after Ovechkin tried to amputate him with a knee-on-knee hit in Game 4.
Gonchar had a point in each of the first four games of the series and was +2 before being injured.
Bumps and bruises
The playoffs are synonymous with pain and the players know that best. But Pittsburgh looked like it took more lumps in Game 6. Sidney Crosby was in agony after blocking a shot with his foot in the first period and the Caps just seemed to be taking more of the physical liberties.
Experience factor
This core group of Pens players went to the finals last year, but the Caps might have the edge in the been there, done that department. Sidney Crosby and most of the other youngsters on Pitt have never played in a Game 7.
Washington is coming off a seven-game set against the Rangers in Round 1. The Caps won that finale 2-0 at home as -240 faves.
Series star watch
Alex Ovechkin: 7 goals, 6 assists, +6
Sidney Crosby: 6 goals, 4 assists, +4
Evgeni Malkin: 2 goals, 6 assists, -2
Mike Green: 0 goals, 4 assists, -2
Other key numbers:
Pens are 5-2 in games where they can eliminate Washington in the playoffs.
Washington has given up an average of 38 shots the past five games.
Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game in regulation time in Washington this year.
Heading into Game 6 the Pens had blocked the most shots in the playoffs with 161.
Hockey Today
SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, May 13
Pittsburgh at Washington (7 p.m. EDT). Game 7 of the Eastern Conference series in which three games have gone to overtime. In all, each team has won twice at home and once on the road, with Washington forcing the seventh game by winning at Pittsburgh 5-4 in overtime on Monday.
STARS
Tuesday
— Mark Recchi(notes), Bruins, had a goal and an assist as Boston beat Carolina 4-2 to force a seventh game in their Eastern Conference semifinal series.
— Tim Thomas(notes), Bruins, made 31 saves to keep Boston alive in the series.
— Jonas Hiller(notes), Ducks, made 38 saves as Anaheim beat Detroit 2-1 to force a decisive Game 7 in the Western Conference semifinal series.
— Ryan Getzlaf(notes) and Corey Perry(notes), Ducks, each had a goal and an assist for Anaheim.
SWINGS
Cam Ward(notes) stopped 15 shots and allowed four goals for the second straight game in the Hurricanes’ 4-2 loss to the Bruins. In four previous starts after a loss, he was 4-0 and had allowed a total of four goals. … The Red Wings had clinched their last eight playoff series with victories on the road, but fell in Game 6 at Anaheim, forcing a trip back home for a seventh game.
BACK TO BEANTOWN
The Bruins’ reward for beating Carolina 4-2 in Game 6 is a trip home for the deciding contest Thursday night, their first at home since losing Game 7 in the first round to Montreal in 2004.
BACK TO MOTOWN
The Ducks beat Detroit 2-1 in Game 6 to earn a trip to the Motor City, where they won Game 2 and fell in the first and fifth games of the series. The Red Wings will face their first Game 7 since drubbing the Colorado Avalanche 7-0 at home on May 31, 2002. Detroit went on to win the Cup that year.
STATS
The Hurricanes have never blown a 3-1 series lead, but they are tied 3-3 with the Bruins heading into Game 7 in Boston on Thursday night. Each of the Hurricanes’ previous three playoff series dating to the 2006 Stanley Cup run also went the full seven games, and they won all three. … Detroit is 11-7 in Game 7s, but just 3-3 at home since 1991.
SIDELINED
Bruins center Marc Savard(notes) should be ready for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals series despite injuring his leg in a 4-2 win over Carolina. Savard hurt his right leg in the third period when he appeared to bang knees with Carolina winger Chad LaRose(notes). He spent the rest of the game in the locker room.
RETURNING
Penguins defenseman Sergei Gonchar(notes) practiced for the first time since injuring his right knee during a collision with Alex Ovechkin and hopes to play in Wednesday’s Game 7 against Washington. He expected to be out for at least the rest of the series after being injured by a knee-to-knee hit instigated by Ovechkin in Game 4.
SPEAKING
“From the time we fell behind 3-1 in the series, our goal was to create a Game 7. We’re there now. … Getting to Game 7 is one thing. Now we’ve got to decide what we’re going to do with it.”—Bruins coach Claude Julien after a 4-2 win over Carolina in Game 6.
“Not a lot had to be said, we have enough guys in here who have been there before. It was unacceptable the way we played last game. We were excited about tonight.”—Ducks forward Ryan Getzlaf after a 2-1 win over Detroit forced Game 7 in their series.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals
Dave Steckel scored the winner in the extra frame to lift the Capitals past the Penguins 5-4 to force Game 7 on Monday night.
Washington cashed as +165 road underdogs as the game played over the 5.5-goal total set by sportsbooks.
Alex Ovechkin had three assists for the Capitals, who got two goals from Viktor Kozlov in the upset.
Sidney Crosby put up a goal and an assist for Pittsburgh, while Evgeni Malkin had three helpers for the Penguins.
Team records:
Pittsburgh: 45-28-9
Washington: 50-24-8
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Ottawa are 6-4
After playing Washington are 8-2
After a loss are 7-3
Washington most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Calgary are 4-6
After playing Pittsburgh are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH (52-32-0-10, 114 pts.) at WASHINGTON (57-28-0-10, 124 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 50-32 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 74-47 ATS (+13.9 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 22-13 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 21-33 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 11-7 (+3.6 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 11-7-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+6.4 Units)
PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Washington is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh at Washington
Pittsburgh:
12-4 SU off home loss
11-2 SU off home game where both teams scored 3+ goals
Washington:
3-6 SU at home vs. Pittsburgh
21-5 Over after allowing 2+ goals in 3rd period last game
NHL Playoffs
Five of six Washington-Pittsburgh games were decided by a single goal, with three of last four going OT. Pens are 3-7 on power play in last two games, after being 4-23 before that. Over is 10-2-1 in last thirteen series games. Penguins outshot Washington 70-44 in third period in this series. Caps are in Game 7 second series in row; they're 4-3 at home in playoffs this spring. Pittsburgh is 3-3 in its playoff road games.