On the Ice - Wednesday
By Judd Hall
The beasts of the Eastern Conference are the focus of Wednesday’s slate of games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. One of the series has certainly lived up to its billing, but is in danger of getting out of hand in a hurry. Meanwhile, the other showdown has the chance of being turned on its ear.
Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins
Before this series started, I thought the NHL was marketing this series all wrong with Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. Turns out that the suits at the big office knew what they were doing all along.
Crosby and Ovechkin put on a show for the ages last Monday night as they both posted hat tricks, but “Alex the Great” got the last laugh as the Capitals took Game 2 as $1.35 home favorites, 4-3.
Some bettors out there (myself included) thought we had a sure fire winner on the puck line when the Caps were up 4-2 with just under two minutes to go. But Pittsburgh went on a power play at that point and pulled Marc-Andre Fleury from goal. “Sid the Kid” completed his hat trick with 30 second remaining and with it my plus-240 pay day went the way of the dodo.
Now the Penguins must face the bad news that they’re down 0-2 in the best-of-seven series. The good news for the Pens is they’re heading back to the friendly confines of Mellon Arena for Wednesday night.
The sportsbooks are expecting Pitt to pick up its first win of the series as a $1.60 home favorite with the total coming in at 5 ½.
That line is surprising when you compare it to the smaller line that Washington received as a home “chalk” in Games 1 and 2.
Pittsburgh went 25-13-3 during the regular season at home, ranking them sixth amongst all playoff teams in the Eastern Conference.
The Penguins only see a moderate change in output on home ice, scoring 3.19 goals per game at Mellon Arena (3.09 goals/game on road).
Is there a difference in how Crosby plays in Pittsburgh? Yes, but not much. He scored 17 goals and 37 points at home and 16-33-49 on the road this year.
So that means that Evgeni Malkin will man up more at “The Igloo,” right? Wrong. Malkin actually has more goals away from home (19) than what he puts up in the Steel City (16).
Sportsbook.com’s Jeremy Ryan believes that you can delve a little further into the sport’s rulebook for some guidance. “To me, home ice is a huge advantage because the home team’s coach can create the best possible matchups after the whistle.”
Ryan is referring to Rule 82.1 Line Change - Following the stoppage of play, the visiting Team shall promptly place a line-up on the ice ready for play and no substitution shall be made from that time until play has been resumed. The home team may then make any desired substitution, except cases following an icing, which does not result in the delay of the game.
It’s not a bad thing to change up your line as much as you want to cancel out the opposition’s forwards, huh?
Perhaps the line has something more to do with the Capitals. It’s no secret that this club feeds off of the energy in the Verizon Center. It certainly energizes Ovechkin when you see that he has 34 goals at home and just 22 on the road during the 2008-2009 campaign.
As noticeable as that drop off is for arguably the best player in the NHL, it shouldn’t scare bettors off of Washington as a $1.55 road pup. The reason for that is that the Capitals have won three straight games at Mellon Arena.
The puck will drop on this contest at 7:05 p.m. EDT on Versus.
Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes
Let’s suppose that the Bruins were called for just one penalty in their last game against Carolina and that didn’t yield a goal. You’d think that Boston would be heading to the Research Triangle with a 2-0 lead in its series.
Instead of taking a commanding lead, Boston finds itself tied at one win apiece as the Hurricanes took Game 2 last Sunday as $1.95 road pups, 3-0.
Carolina received a terrific effort out of Cam Ward between the pipes, stopping all 36 of the Bruins’ shots on goal. The ‘Canes continue to be solid on special teams as they snuffed out all four power plays Boston had last Sunday. The B’s are now 0-for-7 in this series and 0-for-14 in their last four playoff games.
As glaring as special teams play may appear, it isn’t the major problem for Boston. Nor is it Tim Thomas, who allowed two goals on 24 shots in what was a fantastic outing for him. The issue was with puck control the shots they took.
The Bruins were never able to get into a rhythm as they uncharacteristically turned the puck over eight times last Sunday. Only thing worse than that when Boston did fired shots at Ward, they had little to no purpose. Cycling the puck around the zone for a prime shot was thrown aside by the B’s for attempts that they just wanted to get lucky on.
I know they were the B’s because of the sweaters they wore, but the gameplan they took on the attack is not the same as we’ve seen all year.
Most betting shops fully expect Boston to right the ship on Wednesday night by making them a $1.20 road favorite (risk $120 to win $100) with a total of five.
It’s not hard to put faith in the Bruins to win as road faves right now as they’re 5-2 in their last seven games that they were in that role. The ‘over’ has gone 5-2 in that stretch as well.
Something that Carolina does have going for it is the fact that they’re 5-3 during the regular season when playing after two days off following a win. The ‘over’ is 8-6 in all 14 games that the ‘Canes played in that spot during the season. But we should note that the Hurricanes are just 1-3 this season when installed as home ‘dogs.
You’ll need the NHL Center Ice package to catch this game starting at 7:35 p.m. EDT.
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: Caps at Pens Game 3
By DUSTIN NIELSON
Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins (-170, 5.5)
An Epic Battle
Hockey fans everywhere will be talking about Game 2 of this series for decades. It’s hard to believe that Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby have somehow managed to live up to the pre-series hype. Both of the superstars picked up their first career hat tricks on Monday night but it was Ovechkin and the Capitals who had the last laugh picking up a 4-3 win.
"Sick game," Ovechkin said. "Sick three goals by me and Crosby. If I was Capitals fan, I'd be very happy right now."
Crosby summed things up perfectly from the Penguins point of view saying scoring is nice but winning is better.
Where’s the support?
The Penguins supporting cast has all but dried up including Hart Trophy candidate Evgeni Malkin who hasn’t scored in four games. Crosby has set an example scoring four of the team’s five goals through the first two games. Malkin, who led the league with 113 points in the regular season, has just two assists through the first two games. Crosby’s teammates know they need to step up.
"A guy can't do more than he's doing," Penguins defenseman Brooks Orpik said. "When he's playing like that, the other guys usually follow his lead. We need more playing like him."
A No Name No More
Anyone who thought Simeon Varlamov’s first round performance was a fluke can’t subscribe to that theory anymore. The Caps new No. 1 goalie has stopped 67 of the 72 shots fired his way by the Penguins, including the best save of the year in Game 1. Not bad for a guy who only played in six regular season games.
"It's like a dream come true," Varlamov said. "I was playing for the farm club before, and now I'm really having fun. I'm thinking only about playing here in Washington and in this league.”
We’ve Been Here Before
Supporters of the Penguins may believe their team has the Capitals right where they want them. The Penguins, in the past, have possessed an uncanny ability to erase series deficits against the Caps. In 1992 and 1996 they erased 2-0 series deficits against Washington and won both series. Those were the days of Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr now it’s time to see if Crosby and Malkin can answer the call.
Hockey Today
SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, May 6
Washington at Pittsburgh (7 p.m. EDT). Alex Ovechkin and the visiting Capitals look to take a 3-0 series lead over Sidney Crosby(notes) and the Penguins when the Eastern Conference semifinal matchup shifts to Pittsburgh.
STARS
Tuesday
— Roberto Luongo(notes), Canucks, stopped 23 shots and made an early lead stand up in Vancouver’s 3-1 win over Chicago that gave his club a 2-1 lead in the Western Conference semifinal series.
— Jonas Hiller(notes), Ducks, made 18 of his 45 saves in the third for Anaheim, which beat Detroit 2-1 and grabbed a 2-1 lead over the Red Wings in the other Western semifinal series. ^SALE COMING?
Angered by the Phoenix Coyotes’ bankruptcy filing, the NHL stripped owner Jerry Moyes of the authority to run the club. A few hours after Moyes announced Tuesday that the team had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection—a move that could allow the cash-strapped franchise to be sold and moved to Ontario— the NHL said it would represent the team in bankruptcy court.
Earlier, BlackBerry boss Jim Balsillie announced a plan to buy the Coyotes and move them to Ontario. The co-CEO of BlackBerry maker Research In Motion said that his $212.5 million offer is conditional on the Coyotes relocating to Canada, where they existed as the Winnipeg Jets before moving to Phoenix for the 1996-97 season.
SOME RETURN
Vancouver Canucks forward Taylor Pyatt(notes) returned to the lineup Tuesday night for the first time since his fiancee was killed in a car crash in early April. Carly Bragnalo died April 2 while on vacation in Jamaica. Pyatt and Bragnalo were to be married this summer.
Pyatt, who had gone home to Thunder Bay, Ontario, missed the final five games of the regular season and didn’t play during the Canucks’ four-game sweep of the St. Louis Blues in the opening round of the playoffs, or in the first two games of the second-round series against the Chicago Blackhawks.
SPEAKING
“We were able to shut down one of the most skilled and best transition teams I’ve seen in a long time. We’re going to keep it high percentage. I think if we do that and play a good puck possession game, we give ourselves a better chance to win.”—Vancouver coach Alain Vigneault after the Canucks beat the Blackhawks 3-1 on Tuesday night and took a 2-1 lead over Chicago in the series.
Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Alexander Ovechkin had a hat trick to lift the Capitals over the Penguins 4-3 to take a 2-0 lead in the series on Monday night.
Washington cashed as -145 home favorites as the game played OVER the 5.5-goal total set by oddsmakers.
Dave Steckel also scored for the Capitals, who got two assists apiece from Sergei Fedorov and Viktor Kozlov in the win.
Sidney Crosby potted all three markers for Pittsburgh, which outshot Washington 36-33 on the night.
Team records:
Washington: 50-24-8
Pittsburgh: 45-28-9
Washington most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Calgary are 4-6
After playing Pittsburgh are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Ottawa are 6-4
After playing Washington are 8-2
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Washington
Pittsburgh is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Next up:
Pittsburgh home to Washington, Friday, May 8
Boston Bruins vs. Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes blanked Boston 3-0 as a +190 underdog in Game 2 on Sunday. The three goals scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (5).
Cam Ward stopped all 36 shots he faced to post the shutout for Carolina, while Eric Staal scored his 6th postseason goal into an empty net.
Tim Thomas made 22 saves for the Bruins in the loss.
Team records:
Boston: 53-19-10
Carolina: 45-30-7
Boston most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Ottawa are 5-5
After playing Carolina are 6-4
After a loss are 6-4
Carolina most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Boston are 4-6
After playing Boston are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
Next up:
Carolina home to Boston, Friday, May 8
WASHINGTON (56-27-0-8, 120 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (49-32-0-9, 107 pts.)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 8-6 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 8-6-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.6 Units)
BOSTON (58-19-0-11, 127 pts.) at CAROLINA (50-33-0-8, 108 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 1-7 ATS (-8.4 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
CAROLINA is 50-41 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 32-21 ATS (+1.1 Units) second half of the season this season.
CAROLINA is 23-19 ATS (+0.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CAROLINA is 16-9 ATS (+26.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 58-30 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 0-5 ATS (-6.5 Units) in home games after shutting out their opponent in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 26-36 ATS (-27.8 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 7-7-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.6 Units)
WASHINGTON vs. PITTSBURGH
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
BOSTON vs. CAROLINA
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 9 games
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
NHL Playoffs
Pittsburgh lost five of six to Washington this year, after being 10-2 in last three years against the Caps; Penguins were 2-5 on power play in Game 2, after being 0-17 before that, but Caps won, 4-3. Washington is 5-0 in last five games- they got outshot 36-26 in Game 1, 36-33 in Game 2-- both games in this series were tied after two periods, so Washington has controlled third period. Over is 7-1-1 in last nine series games.
Bruins lost for first time in playoffs in Game 2, as Ward stopped all 34 shots he faced in 3-0 win; Boston outshot Hurricanes 28-12 in last two periods but never lit the lamp. Carolina was 2-1 at home against Devils in first round; Bruins won both their road games at Montreal. Teams are combined 0-9 on power play in series, with Boston getting seven of the nine chances with man advantage.
Washington at Pittsburgh
Washington:
10-3 SU AWAY after BB home games
6-1 SU AWAY when leading in a playoff series
Pittsburgh:
1-3 SU off BB road losses by 1 goal
3-6 SU when trailing in a playoff series
Boston at Carolina
Boston:
28-14 SU Away off Away loss
10-3 Under Away revenging loss by 2+ goals
Carolina:
20-3 SU off BB wins by 2+ goals
41-16 SU off a win