What Bettors Need To Know: Blackhawks at Flyers
Don’t call it a comeback
Even though the Flyers trail this series 3-2 and are one loss away from elimination, it’s safe to say they have the Blackhawks right where they want them.
Philadelphia has relished the role of underdog in the playoffs, bouncing back from certain death against the Boston Bruins in the second round and answering back with two wins at home after trailing Chicago 2-0 in the final.
“If any team gets it, this team gets it, because we’ve been here so many times,” head coach Peter Laviolette told the Toronto Star.
“To have our backs against the wall, we’ll be comfortable (Wednesday). I have no question that our team will respond in a manner in which it should so that we can be successful.”
The Flyers have been tremendous at home this postseason, going 8-1 inside the Wachovia Center including winning Games 3 and 4 against the Blackhawks. Philadelphia is scoring 3.70 goals per game at home while giving up an average of just two goals as host this postseason.
They’ve edged Chicago 9-6 in the two games in this series and haven’t lost to the Blackhawks inside the Wachovia Center in 10 games dating back to 1996.
"That's a stat that I don't look at," Chicago defenseman Brian Campbell told USA Today. "After you said that, it pretty much went out the ears and I'll move forward."
Taking advantage
The Chicago power play finally showed up in the Stanley Cup Final, netting two goals in the Blackhawks’ 7-4 win in Game 5 Sunday. Chicago had scored just one power-play goal in the previous four games, improving to 3-for-13 on the man advantage in the final.
"We just settled down and played our game and that's a big factor, just even with the even strength, we came out ready to go, controlling the puck a little better,” forward Dustin Byfuglien told NHL.com. “That led into the power play with guys just settling down, confidence and just playing. That's something we needed to do. That's something we did very well tonight."
The Blackhawks special teams ranked just 16th in the NHL during the regular season, which was poor considering they were among the most offensively explosive attacks in the league. For the playoffs, Chicago’s power play is operating at 22.7 percent efficiency – going 17-for-75 with the man advantage. Philadelphia has had the best penalty kill this postseason, shutting down almost 86 percent of opponents’ power plays.
"There were some questions about our power play going in," Patrick Sharp told the media. "We've had lots of stretches where we were 0-for-6, 0-for-8 and managed to come through during the season, so we weren't too worried about it. We got five guys on both units who like to make plays, can move the puck and we scored a couple big goals today."
Musical chairs
Peter Laviolette has a secret. And he’s not telling.
There is a cloud of mystery surrounding Philadelphia’s starting goaltender for Game 6 Wednesday. After starter Michael Leighton was pulled after allowing three goals on 13 shots in Game 5, there are some fans who would rather see Brian Boucher get the call.
"I don't like to put things out before I talk to my team and talk to my players," Laviolette told the CBC. "I want to make sure I do it at the right time and when I want to do it. I reserve the right to say when and where."
Leighton, who was brilliant against the Bruins and the Montreal Canadiens in the two rounds heading into the final has been shaky at times. He’s boasting a 4.01 goals against average and a .871 save percentage against the Blackhawks and has been pulled in two games this series.
Boucher didn’t fare much better when he stepped between the pipes in Game 1 or Game 5. He allowed one goal on 12 shots in relief in the opening contest of the final then was peppered for three goals on 14 shots in Sunday’s loss.
"Whatever is best for the team and whatever is going to give us the best chance to win one hockey game," Laviolette followed up.
Wednesday's Best NHL Bet
It appears the cat is out of the bag.
After Philadelphia head coach Peter Laviolette kept fans and the media in the dark about the team's starting goalie for Game 6, the answer may have inadvertently leaked thanks to the world of social networking.
Following a Tuesday press conference, the Flyers’ official Twitter page reported that Michael Leighton would start Game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals against the Chicago Blackhawks.
Not long after, the tweet was replaced with this quote from Laviolette, which strongly suggests Leighton will start between the pipes: "Our goaltender has the best numbers in the playoffs; I don't think I have to announce it."
But does the decision really matter? Leighton has been pulled in two games of this series due to ineffectiveness and backup netminder Brian Boucher has been giving up goals at a high clip as well.
The goalies on both sides of this series have played second fiddle to the offenses. While the shots on goal totals for each team haven’t been off the charts, the scoring percentage has with an average of 8.00 shots per game finding the net.
The only contest in the finals that didn’t go over the posted total was Game 2. Five of the seven graded totals at Philadelphia this postseason have gone over and pucks should be flying again Wednesday.
Pick: Over
Chicago goes for the kill
By Judd Hall
Home ice rarely means much during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, proven this postseason with three road teams winning Game 7s. Yet the home teams have held serve in the first five games of the Stanley Cup Final. The Flyers will no doubt be hoping for that trend to keep going on Wednesday night.
The betting shops are expecting Philadelphia to send this series back to the United Center by installing them as a $1.15 home “chalk” with a total of 5 ½.
What gamblers and Flyer fans have to be wondering is what Peter Laviolette is going to do with his goaltending situation.
Michael Leighton came into this series with a lot of publicity after shutting the Canadiens out three times in the Eastern Conference Finals. In the championship round, however, he has been awful. Leighton was sent to the showers after just 20 minutes of work in Game 5 in Chicago, but not before he let the Blackhawks score three goals on 13 shots. Brian Boucher wasn’t much better in a relief role in stopping 11 of the 14 shots on goal he saw on Sunday night.
This seems like it would be the right spot to bring Boucher back in as the starting netminder, but will Laviolette make that move? Leighton was picked up off of the waiver wire back in December and is looking like one in this series. He has a goals against average of 4.02 and a .867 save percentage. He’s the equivalent of a matador on the ice. As bad as those numbers are, it’s going to be hard for Philly to make that switch between the pipes for concerns of how the team will handle it.
Offensively, the Flyers are doing alright, scoring at least four goals in four of the five games in this series. Simon Gagne found the back of the net on Sunday night for his second lamp-lighter of the Stanley Cup Final. Scott Hartnell has scored three goals against the Blackhawks, one of which coming in Game 5. Danny Briere, however, has failed to score a goal in the last two games but has three helpers to his credit.
What is helping Philly is that they are going up against a goaltender in Chicago’s Antti Niemi that isn’t the second coming of Tony Esposito. Niemi has stopped 88 percent of the shots he has seen from the Flyers to post a GAA of 3.54. Not the best numbers of a backstop on this level, but he has done enough to keep his team in its games in Philadelphia already.
The Blackhawks split up their former top line of Dustin Byfuglien, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in order bolster their offense in Game 5. The result was depth on the attack that Philadelphia couldn’t handle on Sunday. This adjustment also saw Byfuglien score his first two goals of the series and let him slap around Pronger.
Joel Quenneville’s changing of the lines also helped Chicago score on two of its four power plays in Game 5. That’s the first time the Blackhawks has multiple special teams goals since lighting up Vancouver for four scores on the advantage on May 7.
Bettors have rode the good offense and lack of goaltending to high scoring profits as the ‘over’ is 4-1 so far.
The gambling public has been able to back the puck line with confidence during the tail end of this series. The favorites (- ½-goals) have covered the spread in the last two games and should have come through in Game 2 if not for a bounce of the iron for Chicago in the final seconds of the match.
Some fun stuff for gamblers to know is that the team that won Game 5 of this series after being tied 2-2 have went on to win 14 of the last 20 championships.
Even more important for the bettors out there to know is that teams have won Game 5 went on to go 1-5 in the last six Game 6s. Plus, the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in the last seven Game 6s of the Stanley Cup Final.
vegasinsider.com
CHICAGO (67-27-0-9, 143 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (55-42-0-7, 117 pts.)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-3 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-3-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.3 Units)
CHICAGO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Stanley Cup Finals Game Six (Chicago Leads, 3-2)
CHICAGO AT PHILADELPHIA
CHICAGO: 9-4 SU as an underdog
PHILADELPHIA: 12-21 SU revenging a same season loss