NHL Playoffs: First Round Cheat Sheet

Playoff Futures - Best Bets
By Sportsbook.ag

The 2016-17 Stanley Cup playoffs are finally here as the next two months of hockey should fantastic. The NHL playoffs are always highly entertaining, typically bring a few surprises, and can be very profitable from a betting perspective if you spread out your wagers between future odds, series odds, and individual games.

I'll get to the first round series prices a little later today, but this piece is all about which team(s) are poised to make a long run at Lord Stanley's Mug.

To Win Eastern Conference:

Washington Capitals (+175) – The Caps finished the year by winning another President's Trophy (best record in the NHL) and enter the playoffs as one of the prohibitive favorites to go all the way. In the East, they are the only team below +350 odds to represent the conference in the Stanley Cup Final, which does mean a little of the value is gone in backing them.

However, this team is loaded from front to back with talent and depth and can beat opponents in a variety of ways. Opening up the first round against the young Maple Leafs should provide a tough “warm-up” test for the Caps before they have to go through the winner of Pittsburgh/Columbus, and from there they'd be one series win away from the Finals.

The core of this Washington team has too many scars from past playoff failures and after coming up short on multiple occasions there will be plenty of bettors hesitant to back Washington once again. But this may also be the deepest team Washington has had during that span and with G Braden Holtby morphing into one of the best in the world the past couple of seasons, they are also a lot stronger on the back end.

To Win Western Conference:

Anaheim Ducks (+650) – The Ducks don't always get the attention that they should playing out West, but we've seen teams from the Pacific Division make deep playoff runs the last few seasons. San Jose reached the Stanley Cup Final a year ago, and prior to that it was L.A winning a Stanley Cup in 13-14 and losing in the Conference finals a year later.

2017 could very well be Anaheim's turn as they are sick of watching their California rivals experience so much success and would like to get a piece of that themselves.

The Ducks may have to disappoint many Canadian hockey fans en route to the Conference final as they could end up having to go through Calgary and Edmonton to get there, but after winning a Cup in 2007, guys like Getzlaf and Perry have toiled too long without getting back there and want at least one more kick at the can.

Anaheim may also not have as good as a goal differential as some of the other favorites like Chicago and Minnesota, but they suffered the most OT losses by far in the West (10) and when you eliminate the 3-on-3 part of that equation and let an experienced, physical, large Anaheim team continue to use those attributes to grind down opponents 5-on-5 in playoff OT, those results should turn around.

Finally, it was this same Ducks team that lost in the first round of last year's playoffs in the same position (a #1 seed vs a WC team) and the lessons learned from that defeat still sting. Getting an opportunity to right that wrong this year and storm through the rest of the conference in a similar fashion to what the Sharks did last year is what Anaheim fans are hoping for, and they very well could get it.

Series Prices - Best Bets
By Sportsbook.ag

With every NHL bettor having about 48 hours to stew about the first round series prices offered, I thought it would be best to outline some notes for the first round and what to look for.

Everyone has their favorites, but betting on series prices combines the likelihood of a team advancing with the value offered on their odds, so while many expect Washington to run all over Toronto (they likely will), laying -440 is just not worth the risk. Anything can happen come playoff time and should the Leafs pull off a miraculous upset, it's going to take your bankroll some time to recover.

That being said, you can find all the series prices offered for Round 1 at Sportsbook.ag here, so let's get right to a couple of things you can expect.

Series Price Notes #1: Don't expect Minnesota (-160) AND Chicago (-215) to make it through the 1st round

When you look at the odds to win the Western Conference, they are topped by Chicago at +130 and followed by Minnesota at +350. The next three teams all come from the Pacific Division and aren't listed better than +650. All year long the Central Division has been the better grouping in the West and having Minnesota and Chicago top that group is why they enter the playoffs as the favorites in the West.

But the bigger expectations a team has the more pressure to perform that comes along with it, and they'll both have to get through quality division foes to reach the second round.

Chicago is listed at (-215) to dispatch the Predators (+180) in the first round, and given the Hawks 4-1 SU record vs. Nashville this year, many won't believe an upset like this could happen. But Chicago limped their way into the playoffs having lost four in a row and six of their last eight games and “flipping the switch” to playing good hockey again is a lot easier said then done.

Yes, the Hawks dominated the regular season series between the two, but that stuff typically means very little at this stage and the familiarity with the opponent works both ways. Nashville didn't exactly play great hockey down the stretch either as they did not fear finishing eighth in the West and matching up with Chicago. That in itself spoke volumes about how Nashville feels quite comfortable in a matchup with Chicago and should make this series a lot tougher than many expect.

In Minnesota's case, they host the St Louis Blues in a seven-game set and they were actually 2-3 SU vs. St Louis during the year. The Blues also gained plenty of experience during last year's playoff run to the Western Conference Finals and would love to take it one step further this season. They've got to get through Round 1 first though and there style of play matches up quite well with Minnesota as bettors should expect quite a few tight games here.

Series Price Notes #2: Expect Montreal and Boston to meet in the 2nd round

Montreal is a (-140) favorite over the New York Rangers in the first round and Boston comes in as a (-200) favorite over Ottawa, despite not having home ice advantage.

The two winners of those series will meet next round and after Boston fired HC Claude Julien earlier this year, only to see him get scooped up by Montreal a week later, it seems inevitable that these two Original Six teams meet at some point in these playoffs.

A Boston/Montreal playoff round would be a throwback for older fans and today's media would love all the storylines that it would create from the history between the two teams, to the all-world goalies both have, to of course, the Julien situation.

On the ice, both teams are more than capable of dispatching their foes and it wouldn't come as a surprise if at least one of these two series failed to come close to going the distance.

Montreal's Carey Price is the best in the world between the pipes and has no problem putting Montreal on his back and carrying them as far as they'll go, while Boston has dominated the advanced analytics all year long in the NHL and been bitten by some bad shooting luck for the majority of the year.

Both of those should come into play a lot in Round 1 here as Montreal meets Boston.

NHL Betting Preview: Rangers vs. Canadiens
Sportspic.com

The marquee matchup of the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs is an Original Six series between the New York Rangers and Montreal Canadiens. It’s the first time the Habs and Blueshirts have met in the postseason since New York beat Montreal in six games in the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals. Montreal is the series betting favourite this time on Sports Interaction NHL odds.

New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens, Game 1

New York Rangers

The Rangers finished fourth in the ultra-tough Metropolitan Division with 102 points. That total would have been good for second in Montreal’s Atlantic Division. New York struggled to the finish line in going 8-9-4 in its final 21 games to finish 48-28-6 and earn the Eastern Conference’s top wild-card spot.

This team is coached by Alain Vigneault, who coached Montreal from 1997-2001 and Vancouver from 2006-2013. The Rangers were fourth in the NHL in scoring at 3.1 goals per game. They had four guys with at least 50 points, led by right winger Mats Zuccarello’s 59. Chris Kreider led in goals with 28. Former Vezina Trophy winner Henrik Lundqvist had a moderately disappointing season to his usual standards with a 31-20-4 record, 2.74 goals-against average and .922 save percentage. He also had some injury concerns. Backup Antti Raanta (16-8-2, 2.26 GAA, .922 SV) was statistically better, but there’s no question it will be King Henrik in net for this series.

Lundqvist doesn’t have a great regular-season history at the Bell Centre, where he’s 4-9-2 with a 3.87 goals-against average and .877 save percentage. Lundqvist is 14-17-3 in the regular season overall against the Canadiens, one of three NHL teams he has a losing record against. Lundqvist was 2-1 at the Bell Centre with a 2.82 GAA and .915 save percentage in that 2014 playoff series.

New York lost all three meetings with Montreal in the regular season, scoring seven total goals. Derek Stepan led the Rangers with three points (one goal, two assists) in those games. Lundqvist was 0-2-1 with a 4.04 GAA and .871 save percentage.

To win the Eastern Conference, New York is +700.

Montreal Canadiens

The Habs won the Atlantic Division with 103 points. Of course, they made an in-season coaching change in firing Michel Therrien and replacing him with Claude Julien in mid-February. Julien had recently been fired by the Bruins. Montreal was 16-7-1 under him.

Montreal isn’t as good offensively as the Rangers in averaging 2.7 goals per game. The Canadiens had only two players reach 50 points this season: Max Pacioretty (35 goals, 32 assists) and Alexander Radulov (18 goals, 36 assists). Pacioretty led Montreal with five points against New York (one goal, four assists).

The Canadiens should have the defensive edge in allowing 2.4 goals per game (fourth). They allowed a half-goal fewer per game under Julien than under Therrien. Montreal was also the least-penalized team in the NHL under Julien. The Canadiens have one of the best defensive pairings in the NHL in Shea Weber and Andrei Markov. Among all skaters who played at least 750 minutes at 5-on-5 this season, no one was on the ice for fewer goals against per 60 minutes of ice time than Weber was (1.27 per 60). Weber did miss the final four regular-season games with a lower-body injury but was at practice on Monday.

Carey Price had another great season with a 37-20-5 record, 2.23 GAA and .923 save percentage. This series will no doubt be personal for Price because in the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals, Kreider crashed into Price in Game 1 and took him out of the series. Dustin Tokarski took over. Price played all three of this season’s games vs. New York and was 3-0 with a 2.27 GAA and .922 save percentage.

NHL teams usually lose when they are trailing entering the third period, but Montreal led the league with 11 victories when trailing entering the third. On the flip side, the Rangers were tied for second in the NHL in third-period goals scored with 101.

Montreal is also +700 to win the East.

Rangers vs. Canadiens Prediction

Should be a terrific series, with the winner facing either Ottawa or Boston. Two of the three matchups between Montreal and New York in the regular season were one-goal games. These should all be tight. Go Canadiens in six games for this series – as long as Weber is OK to play.

First Round Predictions
VegasInsider.com

The 2017 Stanley Cup playoffs begin on Wednesday as 16 teams look to hoist the Cup. The Penguins captured the title last season by knocking out the Sharks in six games as both teams are back in the postseason.

For the second straight year, Pittsburgh finished second in the Metropolitan division, as the Penguins look to become the first repeat champions since the Red Wings accomplished that feat in 1997 and 1998. The Penguins will square off with the Blue Jackets to begin their title defense, while the Metro champion Washington hooks up with upstart Toronto in the opening round.

The Capitals grabbed the Presidents’ Trophy for the second consecutive season by racking up a league-high 118 points. Owning the most points in the NHL doesn’t always guarantee success as the last team to finish with the best record and win the title was the Blackhawks in 2013. Washington hopes to get another crack at Pittsburgh after getting knocked out by the Penguins in the second round last season.

Out in the Western Conference, the Blackhawks are back as the top seed following three consecutive third-place finishes in the Central division. Chicago faces Nashville for the third time in the opening round since 2010, as the Blackhawks won the Cup the previous two times they eliminated the Predators (2010 and 2013).

VegasInsider.com expert Stephen Nover believes the Oilers can knock out the defending Western Conference champion Sharks in the opening round, “Edmonton is surging winning 12 of its last 14 games. No team had a better record against Pacific Division foes (20-6-3) and Western Conference opponents (33-11-6) than the Oilers. This includes a 3-1-1 mark versus San Jose this season.”

Another reason Edmonton is a strong lean for Nover is the balanced scoring attack, “It's not just the remarkable Connor McDavid, though, why the Oilers experienced such a big turnaround in recording their first 100-point season in 30 years. The Oilers had five 20-goal scorers, an improved defense and tremendous goaltending from Cam Talbot, who tied for the league-lead with 42 winning games.”

NHL money leader Bill Marzano doesn’t see the Flames upsetting the Pacific division champion Ducks in the first round, “This is going to be a very heated series and I look for the Ducks to take this series, 4-1. The Ducks have completely dominated the Flames this season winning four of the five meetings this year. Anaheim was tough to beat at home and won two of three road games at Calgary this year so the Ducks won’t have any problem going to Alberta and taking a game or two.”