NHL's most valuable moneyline skaters
By ARI BAUM-COHEN
Ari Baum-Cohen writes for the popular hockey blog illegalcurve.com.
When a line moves due to a key injury it is partly because of the impact of the injured player and partly a result of the betting public’s perception of that player.
According to Covers Experts’ Scott Rickenback, “virtually any top scorer, especially from a top team, has a tendency to move the line when absent.”
In the NBA, superstars play nearly the entire game and the absence of Kobe Bryant or LeBron James can move the line seven to nine points. In the NHL, elite forwards play slightly more than one-third of a game. How much does their absence affect the line?
Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals (46G, 37A, 83P)
Value: 30-35 cents
What would Washington be like without Alex Ovechkin? In the two games he missed earlier this season the Capitals were slight favorites (-115) at home against Nashville and underdogs (+127) in Buffalo.
Though Ovechkin has a good supporting cast including Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin, the Capitals would be just another mediocre Southeast Division team without Alexander the Great.
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins (29G, 64A, 93P)
Value: 25-30 cents
Geno Malkin’s absence would move the line even more if he wasn’t playing on a team with Sidney Crosby. As long as Crosby and Malkin are together, neither Crosby’s nor Malkin’s absences will affect the line as much as Alex Ovechkin. Malkin has been the most productive player in the NHL this season. Should bettors value him ahead of Ovechkin and Crosby? Is it possible that Geno is underrated?
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins (23G, 56A, 79P)
Value: 25-30 cents
When Sidney Crosby is out of the lineup, oddsmakers must not only account for Crosby’s elite skill, but also his prestige. No NHL player is marketed more than Sidney Crosby. The Penguins were underdogs (+106) when Crosby missed Pittsburgh’s home game against Anaheim January 16th.
Sidney Crosby recently returned from a groin injury that sidelined him for four games. Savvy bettors will note, however, that when Sidney Crosby is out of lineup this year, Pittsburgh is 5-0 (including the Penguins’ last four games).
Ilya Kovalchuk, Atlanta Thrashers (35G, 37A, 72P)
Value: 20-25 Cents
Ilya Kovalchuk may be the most valuable player to his team in the NHL. Instead of making an average NHL team great like Alex Ovechkin, he makes an AHL team a terrible NHL team. Atlanta hasn’t been a favorite since January and was +339 two weeks ago in San Jose. One can only wonder what that line would have been without Kovalchuk?
Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames (28G, 46A, 74P)
Value: 20-25 cents
Who was the last player not named Jarome Iginla to lead the Calgary Flames in scoring? Valeri Bure led the Flames in 1999-2000 with 75 points. Iginla has carried the Flames for a long time and when he misses a game the line moves significantly.
If Iginla does miss a game this year, keep in mind that the Flames have nine players with more than 30 points and two offensive stars in Olli Jokinen and Mike Cammalleri. The line will move, but the Flames can still put the puck in the net.
The next five: Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit; Nick Lidstrom, Detroit; Rick Nash, Columbus; Joe Thornton, San Jose; Zach Parise, New Jersey