Penguins-Capitals Series Outlook
By Judd Hall
No. 2 Washington Capitals vs. No. 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Series Price: Washington -140, Pittsburgh +120
Series Format: Washington, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: The suits at the NHL’s office must have smiles that go from ear to ear that this series came to be. This Eastern Conference Semifinal features some of the best young talent the game has to offer.
Washington has some of the best fire power you’ll find on any one team. Everyone knows about Hart Trophy finalist Alex Ovechkin and his constant highlight reel goals and the Rangers did a fairly decent job of covering him. But you can’t just cover Ovechkin as Alexander Semin (five goals against the Blueshirts) can and will make you pay. You also can’t forget about Mike Green, who is bound to get rolling (one goal in the playoffs) after scoring 31 goals during the regular season.
The Caps’ power play was second only to Detroit and Chicago with six goals in the playoffs. They could have had a lot more than that as they had the advantage 33 times. That is a bit disconcerting since Washington converted 25 percent of the time on the power play.
You don’t hear much about the Capitals’ defense because…well…it isn’t all that good. Green knows how to score, but can and does screw up in the defensive zone. Tom Poti has the size to keep the opposition honest (6’3”, 202 pounds), but tries to finesse when defending.
Washington’s PK unit stopped the Rangers 87.1 percent of the time they were shorthanded in the first round. To be fair, New York was never really known for being an offensive juggernaut.
Goaltending is a touchy spot for the Capitals right now – head coach Bruce Boudreau hasn’t even named who will get the starting nod. Simeon Varlamov stepped up in a big way during the opening round with a 95.2 save percentage and a 1.17 goals against average. The only problem with Varlamov is that he’s only made 11 career starts at the NHL level.
Jose Theodore could make his way back between the pipes for this series since he was 3-0 with a 2.70 and stopped nine out of every 10 shots the Penguins took on him. The only problem with Theodore is that likes to pretend he’s a matador on the ice, which is why he got pulled after Game 1 against the Rangers.
Everyone thinks that Sidney Crosby is the best player on Pittsburgh’s roster. Who could blame them after scoring 33 goals and 70 assists during the regular season? But Evgeni Malkin is the Pens’ best player with a league-high 113 points, which helped turn him into a Hart Trophy finalist for the second straight year. Jordan Staal can also catch teams off guard, as evidenced by his 22 goals. The best part of those three players is that they can and will form a line by themselves to give their offense a shot in the arm.
The Penguins’ defense isn’t talked about much, but they have a formidable setup anchored by best the all-around defenseman of this series in Sergei Gonchar. If Pitt needs to smack around its opponents, they send out Brooks Orpik, Rob Scuderi (team-high plus-23 rating) or Hal Gill. So if you score on the Pens, you will have most definitely earned it.
Marc-Andre Fleury gives the Pens an edge when it comes to goaltending in this matchup. He was 35-18-7 this year with a 2.67 GAA during the regular season, but stopped 92 percent of Philly’s SOG for a GAA of 2.39.
Gambling Notes: On one side of the aisle, you can say that this series was evenly matched with a pair of the games being decided by a single goal. On the other hand, you could say that Washington dominated the season series with a 3-0-1 record and 4-2-2 over the last two years.
Something that surprises me about this series already is that the total for Game 1 is set at 5 ½. No fewer than seven goals were scored in all four games of the season series. The betting shops started making the total at 5 ½ during the regular campaign, but escalated the number to 6 ½ on March 8. And that still was too low for these teams.
Outside of Varlamov’s performance thus far in the playoffs, there is no reason to believe that trend will stop. And let’s be honest, it doesn’t really take a whole hell of a lot to stop the Rangers’ attack.
Outlook: If the exact game odds for this series by Sportsbook.com are any indication, the Capitals will win this series in seven games for a plus-300 return (risk $100 to win $300). That line makes sense given how closely these squads mirror each other.
This series really will be determined in the first two games at the Verizon Center. If the Caps can win both Games 1 and 2, they’ll most likely advance in five games at plus-400. If the Pens can steal at least one game at the “Phone Booth,” then they should close it out in six games to garner a plus-450 payback.
vegasinsider.com
Penguins-Capitals Predictions
by Nicholas Tolomeo
Thanks to a stunning last-second rally by the Carolina Hurricanes, the NHL will get the marquee matchup it was looking for when the No. 4 seed Pittsburgh Penguins and No. 2 seed Washington Capitals meet in the second round.
The series will be a faceoff of the league's three young bright stars, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals.
They are not the only stars of the series, though. The two teams account for three of the top four goal scorers in the playoffs so far. Alexander Semin of the Capitals leads with five goals and Malkin and Crosby have both scored four goals. The matchup that could decide the series may not be the young forwards against each other, but instead the young goaltenders. Marc-Andre Fleury had one of the greatest games for a goalie in playoff history in Game 4 in the first round against Philadelphia but he was also inconsistent during that series. Fleury has a goals-against average of 2.39, which is eighth best among playoff goalies.
The big story in this series has been the play of Simeon Varlamov, the 21-year-old rookie goaltender that was thrust into the starters' role late after Game 1 of the first round. Through six playoff games, Varlamov has maintained the best goals-against average in the league, allowing only 1.17 goals per game.
Despite his impressive breakout first-round performance, it's unlikely Varlamov can continue this run of solid goaltending. He will face a much more potent offense in the Penguins compared to the Rangers, who only managed to get 15 shots on net in the deciding Game 7. In the third period of the last game he only faced one shot. Expect Crosby, Malkin and company to pepper him with a lot more than that.
Experience is another big issue in this series. While both teams are full of young stars, the Penguins young stars made a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals last season and general manager Ray Shero brought onboard veterans Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz before the trade deadline. Along with Guerin and Kunitz, other Penguins that have already had their name etched on Lord Stanley are Craig Adams, Ruslan Fedotenko and Petr Sykora. The only Capital to ever win a cup was Sergei Federov, and he won three.
Oddsmakers have pegged the Capitals as slight favorites to win the series at -120 and the Penguins are pegged at +105. The Capitals may be favored to win the series but the oddsmakers still have the Penguins with better odds to win the cup. You can find the Penguins anywhere from 4-1 to 5-1 to win the Cup while the Capitals odds range from 6-1 to 7-1.
The showdown between Ovechkin and Crosby and Malkin will get a lot of play during the series but the experience of the Penguins role players and the goaltending of Fleury over the inexperienced Varlamov will be the difference in this series.
Prediction: Penguins in six
Docsports.com