Playoff Thoughts and Trends
By Judd Hall
Tuesday night will close out what has been an impressive, if not entertaining, opening round to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Now we can take a look back at the first round to see what trends are going. And we’ll see what we can anticipate at the betting shops for the second round.
“Chalk Eater’s” Delight
Sure the Ducks may have been the eighth No. 8 seed in NHL history to win a playoff series, but that hasn’t been the norm during this year’s tournament. The favorites paid out nicely all during the opening round, winning 28 of the 42 games, which works to a 67.7 percent success rate. Compare that to the 2008 playoffs where the “chalk” went 27-21 in the opening round.
Now I know that a lot of folks out there won’t dole out the cash to play favorites night in and night out. Instead, they opt to take the “chalk” in some parlays. There were two nights during the first round that a parlay of all faves would cash tickets: A three-team parlay on April 20 (Bruins, Capitals and Flames) would have yielded $427 and a two-teamer April 26 (Capitals, Hurricanes) got bettors a modest $194.
Recent history says that the faves will roll in the second round as well, posting a 29-13 in the last two postseasons. You’d be wise to shy away from the puck line, however, as it’s just 8-21 in those games that the “chalk” came out on top.
Experience Does Matter
I used to think that it didn’t really matter that a team had little to no experience when they finally made the playoffs. If you were to ask me now, I’d tell you that you can’t make by on skill alone. Chicago’s success this year gives me some ammo for my old way of thinking. Yet it’s hard to ignore what happened to the Blue Jackets and Blues this April.
Columbus finally made the playoffs in its ninth year of existence thanks to the phenomenal goaltending of rookie Steve Mason. And the Jackets’ reward for getting into the postseason was facing the defending Stanley Cup champs, the Red Wings. Even though they split the regular season series, this was a romp for Detroit. The Wings took advantage of lucky bounces here and there, but their immense playoff experience helped them sweep the CBJ.
St. Louis was in the NHL’s basement for much of the first half of the season, but got hot after the New Year to qualify as the sixth seed. A few experts (myself being one of them) felt that this team was just too hot to be stopped by Roberto Luongo and the Canucks. But Luongo stuffed 96.2 percent of the Blues’ shots on goal, while Henrik and Daniel Sedin combined for nine points in a four-game sweep.
We all should have known something like this would happen after the 2007 postseason. Pittsburgh was making its first playoff appearance with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the lineup, while Atlanta clinched its postseason berth as the Southeast Division champions. The Pens and Thrashers had the talent, but it was just too young to come through in their first playoff series.
As bad as things looked for both St. Louis and Columbus, they must remember that the Pens learned from their mistakes of that first playoff spot. Pittsburgh took those hard lessons and turned it into a berth in the Stanley Cup Final the following year.
Will the Jackets or Blues have that kind of success next year? Probably not, but they’ll be no worse for the wear.
Bettors should take note that the teams heading into their first playoff series ever or just in a while have been a great fade to cover puck line. Detroit, Vancouver, Ottawa and the New York Rangers went a combined 12-5 on the puck line in their four respective series.
We’re Going ‘Under’
There are some great offensive squads in this year’s playoffs like the Capitals, Red Wings and Bruins. But great goaltending and stifling defense has been the order of the day when it comes to the opening round of the playoffs.
Bettors have watched the ‘under’ go 21-13-8 during the first round of the postseason. And that has been the trend over the last three first rounds as the ‘under’ has cashed in at a 60-46-26 clip, which is a solid 55 percent.
What we do know is that totals in the conference semifinals follow whatever happened in the previous round. In 2007, the ‘under’ went 21-13-8 in the first round and 11-4-7 in the second…that’s a combined 62 percent success rate. Last year the ‘over’ was 20-18-10 in the opening round and continued to go high with an 11-6-3 record.
Given how the scores have stayed low this year, we’ll get more of the same in Round 2.
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