Senators-Penguins Outlook
By Judd Hall
No. 4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. No. 5 Ottawa Senators
Series Price: Pittsburgh -290, Ottawa +245
Series Format: Pittsburgh, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: The Penguins find themselves sitting as the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference for the third straight postseason. Two years back, they made it to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 1992. They finished what they started last season with a dramatic Game 7 win in Detroit.
Pittsburgh seems to have meandered through this season. We could say that they lost the edge after winning it all is the reason that they’ve played so average. But a real reason for me that that the Pens have fallen is that they haven’t received a strong effort out of Evgeni Malkin this season. Malkin has only played 66 games in the NHL (Olympics don’t count as league playing time for me), missing those contests because of either injury or illness. There is reason to be hopeful though as he’s started to play like the man of old, scoring seven goals since returning from the Olympics.
Dan Bylsma does have the added advantage of Sidney Crosby (51 goals, 58 assists, 109 points) and Jordan Staal (21-28-49). But Malkin’s ability on the ice means there is just one more skater that defenses must try to figure out and stop.
Ottawa looked like they would be up to the task of stopping one of the more dynamic attacks, but they are a little banged up. Filip Kuba, who has been one of the better blueliners for the Senators, is out of the lineup for at least three weeks after undergoing back surgery. That means defensemen Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips will see the lion’s share of ice time against Pittsburgh’s top line.
When it comes to the Senators’ attack, it all lies in how Daniel Alfredsson is playing. Alfredsson has dropped in 71 points (20 G, 51 A) this season. But the real issue is if Jason Spezza decides to show up and not just take up space. Spezza had just 57 points (23 G, 34 A) this year, and started out with two points in his first 25 games. We should point out that he closed out the regular season with 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in his last eight appearances.
This series will also be a point of growing up for Ottawa netminder Brian Elliot. The young backstop has shown to be a great addition with Pascal Leclaire suffering his usual injuries, going 29-18-4 with a 2.57 goals against average. The lone knock against both Elliot and Leclaire is that they both are making their postseason debuts in this series.
Marc-Andre Fleury has been great between the pipes for the Penguins this season with a 37-21-6 mark and a GAA of 2.65. But you have to wonder where his head is right now since he is 8-5-2 with a 2.68 GAA. Not the kind of run you want out of a top flight netminder going into defense of its championship.
Gambling Notes: Playoff teams are expected to have a good record on the road this year in order to at least have a reasonable shot at lifting Lord Stanley’s mug. Ottawa has the second-worst record away from home this season. And they are going up against a team that is strong at home in the Pens. What could be helpful for the Senators is the fact that they won three straight as road ‘dogs to close out the regular season.
Pittsburgh isn’t exactly worried about losing at home right now as they’ve won seven of its last 10 tilts at Mellon Arena.
The Pens have watched the ‘over’ go 5-2 in their last seven games of the regular season. The ‘over’ has gone 6-1-1 in Ottawa’s final eight tests of the campaign.
Outlook: Some would give the Senators a real chance of getting the upset here against the champs. And those murmurs will get louder if Ottawa can win a pair of games.
What will keep the Sens from advancing is a team that is not only young, but is loaded with playoff veterans. Pittsburgh has the ability to turn the switch on and play championship hockey. They’ll do just that to win this series in five games.
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