Stanley Cup Final Outlook
By Judd Hall
No. 2 Detroit Red Wings vs. No. 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Series Price: Detroit -160, Pittsburgh +150
Series Format: Detroit, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: For the first time in 25 years we’re going to have to a rematch of the previous season’s Stanley Cup finalists. The question now becomes whether or not history will repeat itself? And I’m pretty sure that Gary Bettman, NBC or both made a deal with the Devil to get another marquee matchup.
Pittsburgh had a tougher go of it to return to this stage, playing in 17 games this postseason as opposed to the 13 matches it took them to reach the Stanley Cup Final last year. They got to blast through intrastate rival Philadelphia in the first round, took every last shot Washington could muster in a seven-game thriller and made short work of Carolina in a four-game sweep of the Eastern Conference Final.
The last team to repeat as Eastern Conference champs was the 2001 Devils. New Jersey fielded much of the same team that won it all in 2000. The Penguins, on the other hand, are going into this battle with different personnel and mindset.
Pittsburgh, like the 1983 Oilers, seemed just happy to be in the NHL’s championship round. And much like Edmonton against the Islanders, the Pens got handled in six games to Detroit. It wasn’t that the Penguins didn’t have the talent to match up versus the Red Wings; it’s just they lacked the experience that Detroit had of playing on hockey’s grandest stage.
The lessons learned from that setback are paying immediate dividends this season in the Penguins’ dynamic duo of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Crosby finished the playoffs last year with 27 points; he’s posted 28 points already this postseason. Malkin, who know doubt remembers scoring just three points against Red Wings last year, has tied Crosby with 28 markers in the 2009 playoffs. The next closest player in points for the playoffs is the Capitals’ Alex Ovechkin, who tallied 21 points in two rounds of play.
That pair of studs has really helped Pittsburgh in offsetting any problems they could have against clubs with better depth on the attack. Head coach Dan Bylsma has instituted an 11 forward-7 defensemen setup, which is one fewer attacker than a team would usually have at its disposal. What this does is set up a fourth line consisting of Craig Adams (3 goals-2 assists-5 points), Miroslav Satan (1-5-6) and either Crosby or Malkin playing the pivot. This takes advantage of their young legs and pits them against lines that aren’t used to facing that type of player over extended shifts.
The Pens have also been able to shore up their defense under Bylsma thanks to strong play out of guys like Kris Letang, Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik and Hal Gill. What continues to be an issue for Pittsburgh is how well Sergei Gonchar can play with a bad right knee. He missed a pair of games versus Washington, but came up with an assist in the deciding game of that series. He’s a great quarterback of the power play, but his mobility will no doubt be scrutinized as this battle progresses.
Marc-Andre Fleury deserves a lot of credit for this team making it back to the finals. He has a .906 save percentage and 2.62 goals against average during the postseason. Fleury was simply solid in the Eastern Conference Final, stopping 92.4 percent of the Hurricanes’ shots for a 2.25 GAA. I’ll grant you that his numbers in the playoffs last year were better (.933 save percentage, 1.97 GAA). Yet Fleury has learned this season that it isn’t how many stops you make, but at which time you come up with them that is important.
There was more pressure on the Red Wings to make it this far, but they’re used to that by now. They proved again how battle tested they are by sweeping Columbus in the first round, going the distance with Anaheim and slipping by Chicago in five games to make their 24th appearance in the Stanley Cup Final.
No team in the National Hockey League lit the lamp more than Detroit, scoring 289 goals in the regular season. And only the Penguins (65) have found the back of the net more than the Wings in the playoffs (59). They have four skaters that have seen the red light district at least 30 times in Marian Hossa (40), Johan Franzen (34), Pavel Datsyuk (32) and Henrik Zetterberg (31). Only Datsyuk has went A.W.O.L during the playoffs, having scored just one goal in the second season.
The one name on that list that you might remember from last year’s final was Hossa, who laced up his skates for Pittsburgh in the 2008 Final. While his one-year deal has paid off up until this point of the year (6-6-12 in the playoffs), Hossa actually had a better postseason campaign with the Penguins (12-14-26).
If there is one issue that the Red Wings have for this series it’s their defense. They gave up 240 goals during the regular season, the most they’ve allowed since the 2005-2006 campaign (206). That has reared its ugly head onto the special teams as well with Detroit’s penalty kill snuffing out 73.7 percent of the power plays they face.
Will things get better for them on the blue line? It’s hard to say with Niklas Lidstrom (lower body) having missed the last two games of the West Finals and Jonathan Ericsson missing Game 5 of that series due to an emergency appendectomy. Add in that Datsyuk (bruised foot), Kris Draper (pulled groin) and Andreas Lilja (head injury) are either not at full strength or out of the playoffs altogether. This isn’t the healthiest Red Wings club we’ve seen.
The M.A.S.H unit hasn’t been terribly problematic thanks to Chris Osgood between the pipes. Osgood was much maligned during the regular season as he had a .887 save percentage and GAA of 3.09. He’s come alive in the playoffs, stopping 92.5 percent of the shots that he’s faced and a 2.06 GAA.
Gambling Notes: Two of the more dominant home teams in the playoffs are taking to the ice in this showdown: Detroit is 7-1 at Joe Louis Arena and Pittsburgh is 6-2 at Mellon Arena. So naturally you would figure to take the home squad in the regular season meetings, right? Wrong.
The road teams walked away winners in the two fixtures the Wings and Pens played this year. While that doesn’t sound like it makes sense, you have to keep in mind that the road team is on a 5-0 run going back to Game 4 of last year’s Stanley Cup Final.
Recent history would dictate that the ‘under’ is the way to go when playing totals as it is 6-2-2 over the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Reality is a little bit different with the ‘over’ going 8-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 12 playoffs games. Detroit has seen the ‘over’ cash in four of its last six matches as well.
This year’s series is a little bit different (thanks mostly to the suits at NBC) in that Games 1 and 2 will be played on back-to-back nights. The Red Wings hold a 9-6-1 mark in that spot this season, whereas the Pens are 7-7 on no rest. Keep a close eye on the Penguins if they lose the opener as they’re 6-2 when they drop the front end of a back-to-back situation this season.
Outlook: Last year, I figured that the Penguins’ talent would be enough to let them take home their third championship. And after two games, Detroit let them know who the boss really was.
There have been just 10 times in history that the same teams have met back up in the Stanley Cup Final from the previous year. And only three of the losers from the first series have exacted revenge in Part Deux.
We’re going to have our fourth revenge specialist come through this season as the Penguins have too much firepower in Crosby and Malkin. Detroit at full strength could probably cancel them out or at the very least one of them. With the injuries that the Wings have on defense and lack of time to rest (series was supposed to start on June 5), there is no chance.
Pittsburgh wins its third Stanley Cup in front of the home crowd in six games.
vegasinsider.com
The great debate: Who will win the Stanley Cup?
By Covers.com
The NHL playoffs are finally down to two teams. If this situation seems familiar it’s because the Red Wings and Penguins faced each other in last year’s Stanley Cup finals.
Three reasons why the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Stanley Cup:
Two teams, one season
On February 16, the Pens were 27-25-5 and had just gotten blown out by the Toronto Maple Leafs. Farewell Michel Therrien, hello Dan Bylsma. Under Bylsma, the former coach of Pittsburgh’s AHL team, the Pens finished the season on an 18-3-4 run. The return of Sergei Gonchar around this time can also not be underestimated. The Pens improved their play in each playoff series and looked unstoppable in their sweep of the Canes.
The brightest stars
Detroit has plenty of stars and on well-balanced team, but it can’t top the combination of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The two have combined for 56 points and are tied atop the playoff scoring leaderboard (28 apiece). After disappearing at times during last year’s postseason run and briefly during the Washington series, Malkin is back. His backhand goal late in Game 2 vs. Carolina was probably the best of the playoffs. Together, the formidable duo averaged two points a game each during the East finals.
Health and experience
As crazy as it sounds, the Red Wings might have been better off losing Game 5 to the Hawks. Because both conference finals finished so quickly, the NHL bumped the Cup finals from June 5 (next Friday) to May 30. Now Detroit has to play back-to-back games this weekend. Will Pavel Datsyuk and Nicklas Lidstrom be ready for Saturday and if so, how will they perform on consecutive days?
There is no discounting the Red Wings’ experience, but the Penguins have last season loss in the Cup finals to draw upon. Pittsburgh is playoff tested and the addition of Bill Guerin has given the club an additional veteran presence. The Pens have been in this situation before and they have learned from their mistakes.
Three reasons why the Detroit Red Wings win the Stanley Cup:
The crease crashers
Marc-Andre Fleury is going to have a hard time seeing the puck with the likes of Tomas Holmstrom and Johan Franzen parked in his crease unless he has X-ray vision. Fleury is still a relatively young goaltender and at times tends to have trouble dealing with traffic at the top of his crease. Holmstrom , Franzen and Dan Cleary, do a great job of screening the net while the Wings’ pepper shots from the point.
Pittsburgh’s defensive pairings aren’t strong enough to move Detroit’s big bodies out of the way without drawing penalties.
Shutting down the shooting stars
The Penguins have essentially been a two-man team in the postseason with Crosby and Malkin providing all the offensive punch. The Red Wings will match their defensively responsible stars like Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk (if healthy) against Crosby and Malkin. Their last meeting in early February was a perfect example of this matchup. Crosby and Malkin were held pointless and each finished -1 while Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Marian Hossa tallied four points in a 3-0 win.
Confidence and experience
Talk about skill and momentum all you want but when it comes down to it experience and confidence is the key in the playoffs. The Detroit Red Wings are just that...the Detroit Red Wings, the most dominating team in the NHL over the past 15 years. Kris Draper, Kirk Maltby and Nicklas Lidstrom have taught the likes of Datsyuk and Zetterberg how to win and now they are doing the same with Hudler, Filppula, Helm and Abdelkader. Not that they needed a confidence boost, but the Wings outscored Chicago 8-2 in the final two games of that series without the league’s best defenseman and top two-way forward. The Wings now know they can win without Lidstrom and Datsyuk so how dangerous will they be when they return? The Red Wings have 33 Stanley Cup rings in the lineup while the Penguins have five.
Teams Should Be Fresh Off Short Series
by T.O. Whenham
The Pittsburgh Penguins made very short work of the Carolina Hurricanes. In fact, they hardly looked like they had to break a sweat through much of their brief four-game series. A sweep can be a big advantage for a team in the grueling NHL playoffs. That advantage was quickly minimized by the Detroit Red Wings just one night later when they eliminated the Chicago Blackhawks in five relatively easy games. That means we don't have to worry about how to handicap one team coming off a layoff while another has to play much longer. It does give us a chance to look what happens when both teams get a break, though, and whether that gives one team a bigger advantage than another.
Pittsburgh ended their series on Tuesday night, and Detroit was finished by Wednesday. The Stanley Cup Finals open on Saturday night in Detroit, and follow up with the second game the next night. They then shift to Pittsburgh on Tuesday and Thursday. If necessary, (and I suspect it will be) the remaining games will alternate cities starting in Pittsburgh on Saturday, then Tuesday, and finally Friday. Here's a look at a few of the factors that could impact the teams as they prepare for their rematch in the finals.
Injuries - The extra couple of days off before the series starts won't be long enough to let injured players heal, but it will let some bumps and bruises get better, and it could let players who are on the verge of returning make it back into the ice. No matter how you look for it, this is an advantage for the Red Wings. Pittsburgh is a younger team, and they have gone through the playoffs relatively unscathed. Detroit, on the other hand, has been hit hard by injuries. Nicklas Lidstrom is the best defenseman in the league, but he battled injuries through much of the playoffs and was out for Game 5 of the conference final. MVP finalist Pavel Datsyuk missed the last three games of the Chicago series. Add in a couple more injuries, and other guys who are skating wounded, and you have a team that could use a bit of a rest. The shorter the rest that Detroit had, the bigger the advantage for Pittsburgh. The Penguins can at least be relieved that the rest is relatively short.
Momentum - Opinions are varied over whether momentum actually exists, and what impact it has on a series. If you believe in momentum then there is no question that Pittsburgh has a lot of it. Starting with the second half of the Washington series they have played almost flawless hockey, and their two best players have played like what they are - two of the three or four best players in the world. On one hand you could argue that the break - three rest days for Pittsburgh and two for Detroit - could be enough to interrupt any momentum that exists. On the other hand, the break is short enough that a team doesn't have to get too far out of its regular routine. It's not like the Cavaliers, who had what seemed like three months off before the conference final, and who have seemed to struggle as a result.
Removes any preparation advantage - If there was no real break between the series, or if one team had a significantly longer break than the other then its possible that a team could be underprepared for the big series, or that one team would be significantly more prepared than the other. Because the teams have an extra day or two off between the games, though, they will be ready for what they are about to face. Beyond that, though teams don't want to look beyond the series they are playing, the outcome of both conference finals were clear soon enough that the assistant coaches could have at least started their preparations well in advance. Comparative preparation won't be an issue.
Shrinks home ice advantage - Having the home ice advantage in the finals is a very big deal. The way that this series is set up minimizes that advantage for the Red Wings, though. First, Pittsburgh will have spent at least a couple of days at home before travelling to Detroit, so they won't be burdened by the impact of an extended road trip. Because the first two games are on back-to-back nights, Pittsburgh will barely have to be away from home at all. The quick turnaround between games could also be a problem for the Wings and their fans if they lose the first game - there will be less time to rebuild confidence. Detroit is still in a better position that Pittsburgh, but it's certainly not all that it could be.
Docsports.com
Stanley Cup Finals Capsule
How they got here: Detroit beat No. 7 Columbus 4-0; beat No. 8 Anaheim 4-3; beat No. 4 Chicago 4-1. Pittsburgh beat No. 5 Philadelphia 4-2; beat No. 2 Washington 4-3; beat No. 6 Carolina 4-0.
2008-09 series record: Detroit 1-0-1.
Playoff History: Detroit 1-0. Last meeting: Detroit 4-2 in 2008 Stanley Cup finals. Finals Appearances: Detroit 23 appearances, 11 titles (Last: 2008). Pittsburgh 3 appearances, 2 titles (Last: 1992).
DETROIT: Expect to have D Nicklas Lidstrom, D Jonathan Ericsson and C Kris Draper back in lineup after injuries sidelined them during parts of conference finals. C Pavel Datsyuk, the team's regular-season points leader with 97, will be a game-time decision for the opener. ... Detroit is seeking to become first team to repeat as Stanley Cup champion since the Red Wings did it in 1997 and 1998 with sweeps over Philadelphia and Washington. Five players (Draper, Tomas Holmstrom, Lidstrom, Kirk Maltby and Chris Osgood) on those teams have also appeared for Detroit in these playoffs. ... Of the 20 players who dressed for Detroit in the finals, 18 have returned. ... Red Wings own home-ice advantage for the 20th consecutive series. Last time they didn't have it was second round vs. Colorado in 2000. ... Osgood became fourth goalie to post shutouts in Games 1 and 2 of finals when he blanked Penguins last year.
PITTSBURGH: Captain Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, who lead the NHL with 28 playoff points this year, rank third and fourth in league history in points per game. Crosby has averaged 1.43 points in 42 games, while Malkin has 1.29. Wayne Gretzky leads at 1.84 in 208 games, while Penguins owner Mario Lemieux sits in second at 1.61 in 107 games. ... Crosby is five goals short of tying the NHL mark of 19 in a single postseason set by Philadelphia's Reggie Leach in 1976 and matched by Edmonton's Jari Kurri in 1985. ... Penguins are the first Cup runner-up to return to the finals the following year since the 1983-84 Edmonton Oilers, who captured the title. ... New coach Dan Bylsma, who helped lead Penguins from 10th place in East to fourth after taking over for the fired Michel Therrien on Feb. 15, played under Detroit coach Mike Babcock when Anaheim reached the Stanley Cup finals in 2003. He is trying to become 14th rookie coach to win the Cup and the fourth since 1956. Only Montreal's Al MacNeil (1970-71) took over midseason. New Jersey, in 2000, is the last team to win the Cup during a season in which a coaching change was made.
OUTLOOK: Detroit wraps its tentacles around Stanley Cup for 12th time. Red Wings in 6.