Stanley Cup Final Outlook
By Judd Hall
No. 2 Chicago Blackhawks vs. No. 7 Philadelphia Flyers
Series Price: Chicago -250, Philadelphia +225
Series Format: Chicago, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: There were a lot of people (myself included) that wanted to see an Original Six matchup in this year’s Stanley Cup Final. What we have ended up with is a battle between two great hockey markets with rich history. And we know that one of these clubs will end an extended championship drought.
What Chicago brings to the table is a team that has seemingly followed the Penguins’ gameplan to making this level of the postseason with talented young draft picks. The Blackhawks drafted Jonathan Toews in 2006 and Patrick Kane in 2007. That duo helped the ‘Hawks make the playoffs in 2008 for the first time in five seasons.
Toews’s play on the ice has shown why he is the captain of the Blackhawks, pulling in nine goals and 19 assists in 16 playoff games to be an easy Conn Smythe Trophy contender. And Kane isn’t far behind with his stats during the tournament (7 G, 13 A). Plus, you can’t forget about winger Dustin Byfuglien, who plays like an NFL linebacker on skates. He’s the hottest shooter on the club with eight goals in his last eight appearances.
Before you think these kids don’t know how to play at this level, remember that they played tough against the Red Wings in last year’s Western Conference Final. If that experience doesn’t help, how about having a guy on the depth chart that will be making his third Stanley Cup Final appearance?
Marian Hossa went to the NHL’s championship series in 2008 with the Penguins and last season with the Red Wings – losing both times. And Hossa went A.W.O.L. last year against Pittsburgh (0 G, 3 A) at this stage, so you know there is some added reason for him to play better this time around. Hossa has found the back of the net just twice in this playoff run, but that’s to be expected with most of the offense running through Toews and Kane.
Chicago has also benefited from solid special teams play en route to the Final. The Blackhawks are connecting on 22.6 percent of their power plays in the postseason, while stopping 86.6 percent of the opposition’s advantage.
A lot of the heavy lifting in the Blackhawks’ special teams has been done by Antti Niemi between the pipes. Chicago’s netminder has the best goals against average of anyone that played the full compliment of games after three rounds (2.33) to go along with an outstanding save percentage (.923).
As far as Philadelphia is concerned, they were expected to be in this spot before the season began. What the Flyers hadn’t counted on was how difficult the road was going to be. Injuries and inconsistent play at the start of the year cost John Stevens his job behind the bench. Peter Laviolette didn’t have much luck when he took over the club in early December. Yet they found a way to push themselves into the playoffs on a shootout win against the Rangers on the final day of the regular season.
What the Flyers bring to the table is an offense that scored 2.80 goals per game during the regular season. And they have 54 lamp lighters during the playoffs, one more than what Chicago has logged. Of course, Philly did get the benefit of playing one more game than the ‘Hawks.
Danny Briere has posted nine goals in the playoffs so far with Claude Giroux (8 G) and Simon Gagne (7 G) not far behind on Philly’s stat sheet. And those fellows have helped contribute to the Flyers nailing 20.7 percent of their power play chances.
As great as the Flyers’ attack has been, the team makes their name on defense. Chris Pronger and Matt Carle anchor a blue line that allowed 36 goals in the postseason, which is the fewest of any team that made it into the conference finals. Pronger also gives Philly some valuable experience as the only player on its roster with a Stanley Cup ring.
Michael Leighton will start the series in goal for the Flyers, which has been a genuine stroke of luck for the team. He logged three clean sheets in the Eastern Conference Final against the Canadiens. What fans should be concerned with is if Leighton will last between the pipes. Philadelphia had trouble keeping goalies this year, evidenced by the fact that they’re on goaltender No. 9 of the season.
Gambling Notes: These two teams tend to play fairly identical when it comes to their games in this postseason. Chicago has gone 5-3 at the United Center, while the Flyers are 5-4 on the road in the playoffs. Your best wager in those games is to take Philadelphia on the puck line (-/+ 1 ½-goals) since they’ve covered the spread in seven of its nine road tests.
The real test for gamblers will be who to take when the scene shifts to the Wachovia Center. Philly is 7-1in eight playoff battles at home this season. But the Blackhawks are monsters on the road in this tourney by going 7-1 straight up and on the puck line.
In a rare turn of events, the NHL actually got the scheduling right to start out this series with a day off between Games 1 through 5. Chicago is 33-17 this year with a day of rest and are 10-2 in the postseason. Philly is 33-29 when getting a day break between fixtures.
Outlook: Both teams match up quite well against one another. They have equally explosive offenses and blue line units that will make it tough to get anything together in the offensive zone. We can say the same thing of special teams play on each side of the ice for either club.
Where the real advantage comes is when we talk about the men in the crease. Niemi has faced some of the toughest attacks so far in the playoffs, having survived the Sharks and Canucks. Leighton has worked too much in the postseason. And he faced the Canadiens and Bruins to get Philadelphia to this stage…not exactly the greatest offensive attacks in the NHL.
Chicago’s top line of Toews, Kane and Byfuglien is going to play hell with the Pronger and Carle. And you know that this trio will find more than a few chances to make Leighton look foolish.
The Blackhawks win their first Stanley Cup since JFK was in the White House in five games and a 3/1 return at Bodog.
vegasinsider.com