Three live long shots to win the 2017 Stanley Cup
By Rob Hansen
Covers.com
Before NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman even handed the trophy to Sidney Crosby, and the rest of his 2016 Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins teammates, the sportsbooks in Las Vegas had already released futures odds to win the 2017 championship.
The Penguins held some decent value for futures bettors during the 2015-16 season. They were listed by Westgate LV Superbook at 12/1 on opening night back in October, you could have taken the Pens at a whopping 25/1 during All-Star Weekend in January, and they were the hottest team in the league entering the playoffs in April and were only available at 8/1.
Since none of us have a DeLorean equipped with a flux capacitor and a sports almanac from the future, we have to rely on smart forecasting and analysis in order to find true value in the futures market.
Let it be noted that the NHL has not completed their entry draft (June 24th and 25th) and we have not entered the free agency period (July 1st). While, to some, it may seem crazy to make futures picks prior to these key off-season dates, the savy sports bettor will look for value before the lines move in an unfavorable direction.
So, let's take a look at three current long shots that could make a splash in 2017.
Montreal Canadiens (14/1, 7/1 to win East)
The expectations were high for the Canadiens heading into the 2015-16 season, especially since they won the Atlantic division the previous year with an impressive 110 points, but their hopes were derailed on November 25th when goaltender Carey Price was lost for the season with a knee injury. In most cases, one player doesn't make all of the difference, but Price is the best goalie in the world and simply having him back between the pipes makes the Habs contenders in 2016-17.
Something to keep in mind is that although the Canadiens missed the playoffs, they were 10-2 in games started by Carey Price this past season.
The Habs will need to address a pair of key issues during free agency in order to lift Lord Stanley's mug - and cash in on those 14/1 futures. They are going to need a top 6 scorer (if the Tampa Bay Lightning let Steven Stamkos get to free agency the Habs will be major players) and they will need to add more size and grit for a lengthy playoff run.
St. Louis Blues (14/1, 7/1 to win West)
You will be forgiven if you have to do a double-take on this one. The St. Louis Blues at 14/1? Is this the same Blues who qualified for the 2016 playoffs as the No. 3 seed in the West? Is this the same Blues who came within two wins of this year's Stanley Cup final?
The Blues are one of the toughest teams to play against in the entire National Hockey League. They are built for the playoffs with good goaltending, hard-nosed character players, and a great defensive core.
The Blues will have some tough financial decisions to make in the off-season in regards to Troy Brouwer and David Backes. Once they decide which one of those two players they are keeping for next season, they will need to decide on a true number one goaltender (likely Jake Allen) and swap the other guy for some secondary scoring and speed.
The St. Louis Blues are tough, tough, tough. But they will need to score more in 2016-17 in order to pay off at 14/1.
New York Rangers (25/1, 12/1 to win East)
The 2015-16 playoffs did not go the way the New York Rangers had hoped. Matthew Murray took over in goal for the Pittsburgh Penguins and delivered the Rangers a quick first round exit.
We should not forget that the Rangers are a team that put up 101 points during the regular season and had the fourth most points in the Eastern conference in 2015-16.
The Rangers annually have one of the most talented rosters in the NHL but never seem to put it all together when it matters most. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is now 34-years-old so their window of opportunity could quickly be closing (top 5 goalies are not easy to find). In order for the Rangers to make a deep run in 2016-17 they will have to re-sign offensive defenseman Keith Yandle; trim some fat with guys like Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, and Tanner Glass; use some freed up cap space to land a top-4 defensive-minded defenseman; and bring 2013 draft pick Pavel Buchnevich over from Russia before they lose him forever.
Other notable long shots to consider:
New York Islanders (30/1)
Detroit Red Wings (40/1)
Edmonton Oilers (30/1)