Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

2009.11.02 results:

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) The Greek (6-2: WIN)

2009.11.02 finished with a 1-0 and +1.75 units won/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 24-37 (-4.05 units lost/61 units risked)

2009.11.04, 4 picks:

Writeups will be posted later in the day. 🙂

2009.11.04 results:

New York Islanders @ Buffalo Sabres: New York Islanders ML +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (3-0: LOSS)
San Jose Sharks @ Columbus Blue Jackets: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +245 (3.45) 5Dimes, SJS PL -1.5 +261 (3.61) Pinnacle (2-3 SO: LOSS)
Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker (3-0: WIN)
Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars: Calgary Flames 3Way (1X2) +140 (2.40) Bookmaker. CGY 3Way (1X2) +160 (2.60) Bwin, Centrebet (2-3 OT: LOSS)

2009.11.04 finished with a 1-3 and -1.8 units lost/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-40 (-5.85 units lost/65 units risked)

2009.11.05, 2 picks:

Montreal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins

For this match up, we would have a perspective when the season started, a good game. However, this teams were disappointing, showing only in few games the talent they got in their rosters. In this moment, Montreal are showing some improvements, with 5 of their 7 wins, appearing in their last 6 home games. However, when we though that Montreal was getting strong, they went to Pittsburgh to a blowout loss, and achieving another loss in the next game, at Chicago.

So, Montreal is not a reliable team. Knowing they are coming from a home loss, where they were trying to use their home advantage to rise their game, we can view here a spot: as a non reliable team, they are without confidence, as their efforts for the 6 straight wins at home, were smashed. Montreal as showed as well problems in their defense, taking most of their wins to OT, resulting from a power defense that shows problems when pressured, often allowing goals in the last minutes.

Boston, is a curious team, as they usually alternates a win with a loss. But for the first time this season, they got 2 straight losses, and worst, 0 goals on that games. They are on red alert about their offense, struggling with Savard injury. But even with Savard out, they already proved that they can score, and had improve their defense game to cover that powerless offense. In their last games, they are allowing just 1.60 goals per game.

So, for this game, I will take Boston 3way, but that's because this teams some times don´t play as we expect, otherwise, I would take PL. Montreal with huge defensive problems, coming from a loss, and know that tomorrow, when they return to home, they got to win to any cost to continue showing their fans improvement. So, I expect a cautious Canadians team, playing just the enough to don´t be humiliated. Boston, have offense problems, but will not miss this opportunity, facing a awful defensive team. With their defense, which will be the key for victory, they can with calm improve their offense.

Don´t forget the confidence, Montreal is not a reliable team, as Boston is more than accustomed to losses, normally giving great responses, as I expect today.

Pick: Boston Bruins 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

After a nice start, Senator lost some of they fuel, with 4 losses in last 5. Despite the recent form, we can build a probable scenario for today's game. This because Senators had almost a week off, playing last game 5 days ago. So, they had time to think what was missing in the last games, and how to return to initial form. Don´t forget that they got the will, as they are angry because of the last loss, a defeat at home against Atlanta, due to a sensational perform of Atlanta´s GK. So, they know what they are capable, they know how to play well, and make sure they can seek luck.

Tampa, is a team that I already described many times. Home team. They live under the talent of their first line, but that talent needs to be stimulated by the supporters. In foreign pavilions, they usually can´t get that talented, and their first away win, yesterday, was because of Toronto demerit. If we look before yesterday, they lost 3 away games for 3 or more goals. Curious is the fact that they suffered the biggest defeat two weeks ago at this field, losing 7-1 to Senators. But they already gave their revenge, winning 5-2 at home.

So, for this game, I think we have a great value on Senators PL. Is not so risky as it seems, and the odds are with 0.40 plus than what I think it would be fare. Senators, despite the last results, had time to think their game. This game is the perfect game to them, they know how to break this team, as they won 7-1 two weeks ago. They can´t wait a better team to face tonight and show they can improve from the last results.

Tampa, get their first away win yesterday, and will have a B2B game, in a uncomfortable position to them. They got a little bit of luck, as they won with opponent demerit and had a more tired game, as they got to hold the result despite Toronto pressure. They are a easy prey as visitors, and Senators will like be a bad host for them.

Pick: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +190 (2.90) Bookmaker

2009.11.06, 1 Pick:

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Carolina Hurricanes

Be aware about this play. This game can be a long shot, however, there is a big value on PL line. I will not let this one pass. Hurricanes are with 9 losses in a row. They are with the worst records in PIM and scoring. But, they have one team worst than them in goals allowed. Imagine who? Toronto.

For those who keep a track of my picks, already knows that fade Carolina has been a good bet, but i had advise everyone to the turning point. That turning point will probable appear at home, and I´m sure that will happen soon, and at home against a poor road team. Difficult will be to analyse if there will be a real turn point, or a fake turn point, but, one victory, will appear in the next games for sure.

For this game, Caroline will bet everything they got. Hurricane´s coach don´t feel is job is in jeopardy, giving the excuse of injuries and so on to the results. However, he seems a believer, and that could be great to rise Hurricane´s confidence. At least, this is my thought. About the roster, the news are not the bests, with Whitney probably joining Staal on the injurie´s list. They call their first pick from last year draft to fill the empty spots in their offense, and will play today.

Toronto, got their first win in their last road trip. Curiously, after that win, they got 4 OT losses in 4 games. This can damage a team, that get their first win, feel that they can turn things around, and them, lost 4 games on OT, where they tried to give all they got, and feel no luck. Defense, was their problem, and they are demoralizing for sure. There were no results when they feel that they can bring results, particularly in last game at home.

So, this game will be the battle for the worst team title. Two teams, digging deep their own holes without any help. Today, someone has to win, who will be? Toronto, the "one win team", who have no luck and are the worst defense team? Or Carolina, a team with their worst losing streak since 93/93?

My guess, is that Caroline, a team that get the playoffs last season, and i enjoyed to watch, will play to win, and win. They are a team that can fight, just need an opportunities to break this streak. Even with their best players out, this is game is not a question of talent, but a question of will, and believes.

Take note that this game have no value on ML and 3WAY play. PL have a great value, as I believe that Carolina will play with all they got, and the public will try to help. Against a poor defensive team, this is their opportunity. Toronto just waste their last opportunities, will arrive to this game with no confidence. In the last Hurricanes win, they won at home 7-2.

So, if they start their engines at home, against a this awful defensive team, we can expect a blowout, they will get enthusiasm and can turn this one in a easy game.

Pick: Carolina Hurricanes PL -1.5 +240 (3.40) 5Dimes, Diamond (DSI)

2009.11.05 results:

Montreal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins: Boston Bruins 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (1-2 SO: LOSS)
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +190 (2.90) Bookmaker (3-2 OT: LOSS)

2009.11.05 finished with a 0-2 and -2 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-42 (-7.85 units lost/67 units risked)

Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres are being great so far. With 9-2-10 record, they are a no fearing team. Their losses comes in NY Islanders and at home against Atlanta, but Detroit for example, they were able to shutdown. They got courage. Despite my opinion (I still have doubts about their reliability), they are proving something, being cohesive, and taking the advantage of Ryan's Miller performance so far.

Flyers, is the team I most enjoy to watch. Show is what they promise, and they come from 2 blowout wins at home. At road, they still have to improve their game, because is not so easy for them to play outside, their kind of game is more adequate to play at home.

However, the spot for me to this game, is that the team have some players with flu and had made today an airplane travel, where the air is not well renewed. So, it's likely that more players got the virus (seasonal flu, not H1N1), and as we know, flu most effects is physical tireness and fever. There is medication to ease the symptons, but it is not enought on theses cases. So, it seems to me a game to take Sabres. Without this spot, I would take Flyers for sure as dogs, but I wonder if bookies didn't make them dogs because of the flu...

Pick: Buffalo Sabres 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker

2009.11.06 results:

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina Hurricanes PL -1.5 +240 (3.40) 5Dimes (2-3: LOSS)
Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres: Buffalo Sabres 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (2-5: LOSS)

2009.11.06 finished with a 0-2 and -2 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-44 (-9.85 units lost/69 units risked)

Not pretty...

2009.11.10, only 1 Pick:

Calgary Flames @ Montreal Canadiens

This is a game between two canadian teams. Montreal is a very experienced team, full of seasoned players. However, they haven't played well, they had a bad start and only recently at home they've got a good winning streak. Yet, the losses have returned.

Calgary is a very strong team this year in my opinion and they are playing well. They have difficulties in managing their motivation, which translates in their results, when they have a loss, on their next game, they usually have a second loss two... This show some lack of mental strength, despite the quality of the roster.

This is a game with a simple spot. Montreal is a very seasoned team and they play much better at home. Despite their bad moment, they like to host canadian teams and they give all they've got on these games, usually scoring good results. They are mentally strong and can reverse the late bad results trend, fighting against one of the best teams of the league. Calgary despite their good games, doesn't have now the needed mental strength, showing some strain on their last games.

Pick: Montreal Canadiens ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

Edmonton Oilers @ Ottawa Senators

Another game between canadian teams. Edmonton has several absences for today and they are in a bad moment, only 2 wins in their last 8 games. Ottawa has a team with very experienced and talented players, they lost their last 3 home games, and they need to win again. They will have several home games in the upcoming weeks, so they can't waste much more opportunities and today they will surely take advantage of the circunstancial opponent's frailty.

Pick: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

2009.11.10 results:

Calgary Flames @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker (0-1: LOSS)
Edmonton Oilers @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (4-3 SO: LOSS)

2009.11.10 finished with a 0-2 and -2 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-46 (-11.85 units lost/71 units risked)

2009.11.11, only 1 Pick:

Edmonton Oilers @ Buffalo Sabres

Khabibulin has not been particularly good at the road. Even being clear that he is a good goaltender, he are not having their best season, and had some struggling games. The last games have been hard for Oilers, going with 2-7, after a good season opening. It is easy to figure that the injuries are being so far their biggest trouble, and team are with some some mental problems. They come from a OT lost, but they won the game before that, at "cinderela´s team" home (Colorado). But what we have to see here is that the team depends to much of their best players. When the offensive players were out, they had problems to score. So, this tell us that they need their best players in their best, in order to fight their games. Their defense are being a little bit down with Souray out.

Sabres, with the fantastic Miller at the nets, are a team that finally proves what i said. They can do their best or their worth, and the value in bets involving them, is to have a good read about their motivation, and how they will face the game. And today, I think we will have a good day for them. They already proved their strength, specially at home. They can play pretty well, and give a good show, entertaining every one. The truth is that this team, with only 4 defeats in this season, are 1-3 in the last 4. This show that they got their worst right now. But they got the ability, particularly at home, to turn this around at any moment.

After struggling the last games, Sabres have here a gold opportunity, they had 4 days to thin what was wrong. They usually reacts well, when hosting poor road teams. Specially today, we should expect a game with lots of goals for Sabres, because Oilers are in B2B game, and this can damage a lot this team, with lot of injuries, and probably one of their best offensive players out, Hemsky. Their best players, after trying hard yesterday for a win, will play again today, after a travel from Ottawa to Buffalo today. We can´t expect to much on them, and even less from other players. So, this seems a easy one.

Pick: Buffalo Sabres PL -1.5 +145 (2.45) Diamond (DSI)

2009.11.11 results:

Edmonton Oilers @ Buffalo Sabres: Buffalo Sabres PL -1.5 +145 (2.45) Diamond (DSI) (3-1: WIN)

2009.11.11 finished with a 1-0 and +1,45 units won/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 26-46 (-10,4 units lost/72 units risked)

2009.11.12, only 2 Picks:

Ottawa Senators @ Philadelphia Flyers

Incredible these odds. If we see carefully, this game have a big hole between these two teams. Ottawa have no strong factors against Flyers. They are worst in Face-offs, Defense, offense, PP, PK, and so on. Its incredible, but its true. It's not normal, however, this can't be enough to take Flyers, as anything can happen in US sports.

Senators had a good start of the season, but now they are passing a hard time with a 3-5. Their efforts to win their games, are leaded by their veterans, and their fatigue can cause then real problems during the season. In other hand its visible their difficulties against strong offensive teams. Right now, they come from a hard win, 4-3 in OT, against an Oilers team with lots of absences.

Philadelphia it's a team that had give us easy money. They are strong, and a true contenders this year. Hard to beat, specially at home, where they are 6-2. In their last game, they won 2-1 on OT. However, that game was a B2B game, after going to Buffalo won 5-2. In that games, the team had several players with a seasonal flu, which can give them fatigue, and the fact that they travel all together on a plain, is easy to figure that the virus eventually strike another players.

Flyers, had 5 days to prepare this game and get their indices back. In their last break, they return to competition with a blowout win at home, and today, I expect the same. They are stronger, in offense and in defense, and at home they usually are the "law". Senators are passing their worst period of the season, and even with some great players, they are not making the difference right now, and I think they will spare themselves to the home games that comes after this one.

Pick: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) Bookmaker

Minnesota Wild @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay will host today the Minnesota Wild. They had 5 days off to get in condition and prepare this game. After 4 road games, they will have 2 home games before a new road trip. So, they cant miss this games, first Wild, and then Kings, 2 team reachable besides their form.

Tampa Bay is a home team. No one beats them in RT yet. Tampa's players, particularly at offense, are very talented. One of the most talented first lines on the NHL, however, they usually sucks at road. Don't ask me why, but at home, they rule. They play very well at home, scoring 3.43 goals per game, and allowing only 2.00.

And despite the last results, we have to watch that this team don't need a momentum, wait for a good shape, or expecting a letdown spot on the opponent. They can turn things around at home in a moment. They can get 10 goals from hurricanes one day, and the other day, give 10-0 to Sharks at home. Is that kind of team.

Minnesota after an awful start are now playing what we all expected from them. However the last results don't face what they are at road: 2-8. So, even with their improvement, they are not yet a reliable team on the road to take.

So, for this game, we can't pass this odds for Tampa Bay PL. They can crush anyone, and they had time to prepare this game, and i have no doubts that they will give their best in this 2 home games. In the other side, despite the improvement that Wilds had, they had that wins mostly from teams with a weak offensive line. When they face strong offensive lines, they usually break out, and it's what I expect for today.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning PL -1.5 +220 (3.20) The Greek

2009.11.12 results:

Ottawa Senators @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) Bookmaker (5-1: WIN)
Minnesota Wild @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning PL -1.5 +220 (3.20) The Greek (4-3 SO: LOSS)

2009.11.12 finished with a 1-1 and +0.75 units won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 27-47 (-9.65 units lost/74 units risked)

2009.11.13, 3 picks:

Anaheim Ducks @ Columbus Blue Jackets: Anaheim Ducks ML -105 (1.95) The Greek
Los Angeles Kings @ Atlanta Thrashers: Atlanta Thrashers ML -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago Blackhawks PL -1.5 +145 (2.45) Bookmaker

For record purposes, I'm going to grade these 2 on the 3Way (1X2) instead of the moneylines:

Anaheim Ducks @ Columbus Blue Jackets: Anaheim Ducks 3Way (1X2) +170 (2.70) Unibet
Los Angeles Kings @ Atlanta Thrashers: Atlanta Thrashers 3Way (1X2) +145 (2.45) Bookmaker

2009.11.13 results:

Anaheim Ducks @ Columbus Blue Jackets: Anaheim Ducks 3Way (1X2) +170 (2.70) Unibet (3-2 SO: LOSS)
Los Angeles Kings @ Atlanta Thrashers: Atlanta Thrashers 3Way (1X2) +145 (2.45) Bookmaker (7-0: WIN)
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago Blackhawks PL -1.5 +145 (2.45) Bookmaker (3-2: LOSS)

2009.11.12 finished with a 1-2 and -0.55 units lost/3 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 28-49 (-10.2 units lost/77 units risked)

2009.11.14, only 2 picks:

Buffalo Sabres @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +190 (2.90) Bookmaker
Los Angeles Kings @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning PL -1.5 +250 (3.50) Bookmaker

2009.11.14 results:

Buffalo Sabres @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +190 (2.90) Bookmaker (2-3: LOSS)
Los Angeles Kings @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning PL -1.5 +250 (3.50) Bookmaker (1-2 SO: LOSS)

2009.11.14 finished with a 0-2 and -2 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 28-51 (-12.2 units lost/79 units risked)

2009.11.16, only 3 picks:

Edmonton Oilers @ Columbus Blue Jackets: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker, +110 (2.10) Expekt, NordicBet

Anaheim Ducks @ Pittsburgh Penguins: Over 5.5 -105 (1.95) Bookmaker

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Phoenix Coyotes: Phoenix Coyotes 3Way (1X2) +130 (2.30) Bookmaker

2009.11.16 results:

Edmonton Oilers @ Columbus Blue Jackets: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker (3-2 SO: LOSS)
Anaheim Ducks @ Pittsburgh Penguins: Over 5.5 -105 (1.95) Bookmaker (5-2: WIN)
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Phoenix Coyotes: Phoenix Coyotes 3Way (1X2) +130 (2.30) Bookmaker (1-4: LOSS)

2009.11.16 finished with a 1-2 and -1.05 units lost/3 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 29-52 (-13.25 units lost/82 units risked)

What a hole...