2010 World Cup Wagering Outlook
By Doug Upstone
When events like this occur that garner worldwide attention, we Americans look so silly and trivial. Think back when we were the leading force globally, before the economy went around the globe; we thought the rest of the world should speak English like we do. Those days are gone and World Cup exemplifies the new world order. Thirty-two teams and 32 countries gather together to play the game of soccer for the right to be crowned World Cup champion.
I’m not going to process to be a soccer expert, but I can do the research. The first thing I learned, this is huge wagering event. Forget about betting in Nevada, small potatoes. In regulated wagering outlets worldwide, 1.5 billion will be bet and that number could go higher, given the fact the host South Africa is in similar time zone as most European markets. Plus, there will be millions more wagered at other wagering outlets that are not under the jurisdiction of various countries. The Super Bowl (83M wagered in Nevada last February) or NCAA basketball Tournament, those are American properties, the World Cup is the most wagered event in sports.
The World Cup isn’t about just who wins or loses and betting on Over/Unders, places like Sportsbook.com have an ample number of props bets as do all the various wagering outlets to entice the zealous better, just waiting to put their money down.
According to sharp soccer bettors, among the aspects studied are recent performances and the number of red cards handed out. The first point is obvious since if a team is in good or bad form, this could well carry over. The red card aspect is interesting, since as the article by Chad Millman in ESPN Magazine points out, teams that have piled up several red cards scored a half a goal less over the 90 minutes. (That factoid is from Kevin McCrystle of soccer wagering site wsn.com)
So who is favored to become the next champion, from the research nine teams are at least given a chance to claim the World Cup, though most soccer experts realistically narrow it down to four or five legitimate qualifiers.
9) Portugal +2800
Portugal was a semi-finalist in 2006 and returns the brilliant Cristiano Ronaldo and number of very good wing players. The talented Pepe is coming back from knee surgery and his performance may determine if the Portuguese can survive a tough Group G bracket that includes Brazil and the Ivory Coast.
8) France +2000
In terms of individual ability, France would almost certainly be in the semi-finals; however it’s more complicated than that. France needed Thierry Henry's infamous handball incident just to qualify and much-maligned coach Raymond Domenech has come under a great deal of fire of his handling of the team and his tactics. Talent yes, but obstacles have to be overcome in Group A.
7) Italy +1600
Betting the defending champions isn’t really a stretch and is a descent value. What most experts point to is most of the core players have returned, nevertheless they are four years older and might not hold up to the rigorous schedule. Enough people in the soccer world questioned why they didn’t bring up younger talent.
6) Germany +1200
The Germans have suffered tough personnel losses and will be without captain Michael Ballack and top goalkeeper Rene Adler. This might force Germany to use more offensive-minded 4-4-2 attack led by Mesut Ozil. Germany should move thru Group D rather easily.
5) Netherlands +900
This team has as much quality as any from the back line. Dutch winger Arjen Robben has been in tremendous form and with young Eljero Elia on the opposite flank, the Netherlands can present many problems for opponents. Why this club isn’t a true favorite is because keeper Maarten Stekelenburg is not thought of as completely reliable.
4) England +700
This squad is deep and experienced and as physically strong as any in the field. The biggest concern is if something would happen to Wayne Rooney, England lacks another game-changer. The English always bear the burden of heavy expectations from their loyal fans and have to play more freely.
3) Argentina +650
No team in the tournament has six legit goal scorers like Argentina. This could be a blessing or curse, trying to satisfy egos with proper playing time. With Argentina no better than average on the back line and in goal, the total could be most important factor in their contests.
2) Brazil +450
When one thinks of Brazilian soccer, flair and charismatic playmakers come to mind. Brazil will still have the likes of Robinho and Luis Fabiano, but coach Dunga wants to make sure defensive support is the utmost most important aspect. If Brazil plays as well as anticipated on defense, there are more than enough scorers that could lead to sixth World Cup crown.
1) Spain +375
Spain is the best and most talented team in the tournament. You can find flaws with any of the other 31 competing squads, just not the Spaniards. The reigning European champions have arguably the best netminder in the world in Iker Casillas and the rest of the defenders play stingy defense. Their midfielders are acclaimed as the best in the game and David Villa and Fernando Torres are electrifying performers. Difficult to bet against Spain.