2012 PGA Championship Odds To Win: Tiger Woods Favored By Oddsmakers

PGA Tour Championship Betting Preview
By Alf Musketa
SportsMemo.com

The 2012 PGA Championship is held at the Ocean Course, Kiawah Island, S.C. It will play as a par 72 and stretch out 7,676 yards. There is a cut this week; the top 70 and ties will advance after the second round. There is no rule those within 10 shots of the leader make the cut like there is at The Masters. If there is a tie after 72 holes, a three-hole playoff will ensue.

You may recall the last time the pros played this course, 1991’s Ryder Cup "War by the Shore.” It was fun for the fans but not for the guys playing. The Ocean Course has two very different nines, the front nine which plays fair and then the brutal back nine which some say is the toughest in all of golf.

The fairways are generously wide, some measure more than 60 yards across, and there is a reason for the large landing areas, (no it is not so Tiger Woods can land his G4 close to the clubhouse) it is because of the strong sea side crosswinds. If the fairways were tight like the U.S. Open no one would break par. The greens have many undulations but if you miss the green it is severe with steep banks, high rough and waste bunkering.

Adam Scott recently played the Ocean Course and was quoted as saying, "The greens have quite the complexes and it is an extreme penalty for a miss."

Unfortunately, the weather could play a key factor in determining the outcome of the tournament. Each day has potential for thunderstorms – a much better option than Hurricane Ernesto or Hurricane Florence which are currently in the Atlantic but not expected to impact the event.

So what kind of golfer does the PGA Championship and the Ocean Course favor? You could say long and straight like I do just about every other week, but long off the tee and a top ball striker should fare well here. The dog leg holes are not sharp, most of the track is wide open to bomb it off the tee and with the crosswinds, stronger/longer players that hit through the wind will have the best of it on the approach shot to the greens.

Here are some of the golfers that I like to win this week with their future book odds:

Tiger Woods 7-1

Sure, you could pick Tiger every week and not be far off, but he's been over to this course a few times and loves the tough layout. It is his last shot this year at getting closer to Jack Nicklaus' record and I'm one of the few that think he will still break it. He's won three times this year, was T3 at the British Open and T8 last week at Firestone. Why I really like Tiger this week is, with the back nine playing so difficult, no one will be able to make a charge at the leaders on Sunday, they will tumble down the leaderboard. Tiger doesn't back-up through the field as much as most players on Tour and grinds it out in tough conditions.

Bubba Watson 35-1

Bubba should relish these playing conditions and with the wide fairways for his type of game he can shape it either way on this course and use the wind to his advantage. He is more than long off the tee and earlier in the season led the PGA Tour in greens in regulation. Two years ago Bubba lost in a playoff for the PGA Championship to Martin Kaymer at Whistling Straits – a very similar course to what we’ll see starting Thursday.

Louis Oosthuizen 30-1

Oosty had a shot at winning last week’s WGC Bridgestone Invitational. He is in good form firing four straight rounds in the 60s. What I noticed most about his game was his superior ball striking especially his tee shots. When he hits these laser tee shots it sets up the rest of his game just like it did at The Masters where he lost in a playoff to Bubba Watson. I wouldn't be surprised to see the South African bag his second major here.

Dustin Johnson 25-1

DJ lives in Myrtle Beach and he grew up in Columbia, S.C. He will have many family and fans in attendance. By now you know DJ is a long hitting machine and can crank it up with the best of them. He's won at Pebble Beach twice and should have been in that PGA playoff of 2010 with Bubba and Kaymer but he was penalized two strokes for grounding his club in a bunker that to everyone on the planet was a waste bunker but the official was walking with him. The Ocean Course has already established that the entire course and all its non-green side bunkers will play as waste bunkers. DJ was T19 last week at Firestone.

Jason Dufner 25-1

Why would we like Dufner here? He doesn't seem long enough off the tee? Well let's see, he's third in Fed Ex Cup points. He has two wins, and seven top 10s this season. He's fifth in total driving, second in the all-around and second in the ball striking. He was also T4 at the U.S Open. He's one of the most accurate iron players I've ever seen and last week he shot 67, 66, 73 and closed with a 68. If you are not going to bet him at least take him in your Fantasy Golf pool.

Longshot Selection

Ryan Palmer 230-1

I played Palmer Sunday night at these odds. I wager about 90% of my golf action in matchups but will look at the props and longshots in the major events. This guy is sneaky long of the tee, and when his putter is on he can win any event. He missed the cut at The Masters and did not qualify for the other two majors, so we know he is due for a good week, because without a top 15 finish here he'll have to qualify for all the majors next year.

PGA Championship Preview and Picks
By Matt Fargo
Playbook.com

This week we have the final Major of the PGA season as the PGA Championship will be contested from the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island in South Carolina.
The last real main event there was the 1991 Ryder Cup dubbed the 'War by the Shore'. As a result, the field is evened out a little here because few players have spent much time here.

The Ocean Course becomes the longest track in major championship history as it can be stretched out to 7,676 yards. Numerous tees are on every hole which means the setup each day is going to be different. Wind is going to play a big part also because of its location.

Put these two factors together and there can be up to an eight-club difference in shots from one day to the next.

Long hitters will have an advantage but not as big as with other long courses. The Ocean Course demands savvy course management that involves knowing where to miss. That makes solid ball strikers the favorites because they can avoid the most trouble with highly executed shots.

The greens are are surfaced with a Paspalum turfgrass known as OC03, which is something the players don't often see. The grainless grass may look slow but in reality can be lightning.

Notes, trends and picks:

There have been 16 different winners in the last 16 majors. This is the longest streak ever.

Since 1993 there have been 15 different winners of the PGA Championship with only Tiger Woods (4) and Vijay Singh (2) being repeat winners.

The defending champion is Keegan Bradley (+2,500) who won at Atlanta Athletic Club over Jason Dufner on the third playoff hole. He had not won another tournament until just last week when he fired a final round 64 and took advantage of a Jim Furyk meltdown on the final hole to take home the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.

The favorite this week is Tiger Woods (+650) who is seeking his first major since the 2008 U.S. Open. He has three wins on tour this year and while some will say he is back to his old form, until his can collect his 15th major, there will be doubters.

Tiger is a four-time winner of the PGA Championship, his last coming in 2007 at Southern Hills.

Jason Dufner (+2,000) is our favorite this week after narrowly missing out last year. After a relatively slow start to the season, he has caught fire over the last three-plus months as he has collected two wins, a runner-up and another top five. He played well at the Masters prior to the weekend and had a T4 at the U.S. Open. He is coming off a seventh place finish at the Bridgestone.

Dustin Johnson (+2,000) has some short odds but he has quietly put together a solid year despite missing some time with a back injury. He has five top tens including a win at the FedEx St. Jude Classic and he has missed only one cut all year. Who can forget his triple bogey on the final hole at Whistling Straits that denied him a chance for the 2010 PGA Championship. The setup there and at the Ocean Course are very similar.

Steve Stricker (+3,500) is one of the best players in the world without a major and while he hasn't been a contender this year, this could be the one that sets up well for him. He is one of the best long iron hitters on tour and with the length of the Ocean Course, that will come in handy. Overall, his ball striking is average, which goes against how that is a big edge, but he can make up for it in putting.

Hunter Mahan (+4,000) has cooled off after a very strong start to the season but that only gives us better odds this week. He has definitely fallen off the radar with only one top ten in his last 11 starts but he has missed only one cut over that stretch. He leads the tour in ball striking so any lack of contending over the last couple months can be negated with that stat which gives him a big edge on this course.

We have used Bo Van Pelt (+5,000) a lot this year and he has come painfully close to cashing for us. Therefore, we are backing him again and turning the five-pack into a six pack. He is coming off a T8 last week in Akron, which was his tour-leading eighth top ten and while he has not won, he looks ready to break out. He is tied for 12th on tour in ball striking.

Long shots have won this major more than any other over the last couple decades and one that stands out this week is Bill Haas (+8,000). Haas has a win already this year at the Northern Trust Open and is coming off consecutive T19's, most recently last week at the Bridgestone. He has not had a top ten in a while but he has played well in the majors the last two years including a T12 at the PGA Championship last year.

Recommended Tournament Win Six Pack at the PGA Championship – All for 1 Unit

Jason Dufner (+2,000)
Dustin Johnson (+2,000)
Steve Stricker (+3,500)
Hunter Mahan (+4,000)
Bo Van Pelt (+5,000)
Bill Haas (+8,000)

Love McDowell at 30-1