2012 UFC 148 Betting Odds & Card for Sonnen vs. Silva II

UFC 148: Sonnen-Silva II
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back in Las Vegas for another action-packed card on Fourth of July Weekend, returning to the MGM Grand Garden Arena on Saturday night for UFC 148.

The main event is one of the most anticipated bouts in the promotion’s history with Anderson ‘The Spider’ Silva taking on Chael Sonnen for the middleweight title. As of Thursday, most betting shops had Silva (31-4 MMA, 14-0 UFC) installed as a minus-3000 favorite with Sonnen available as a plus-230 underdog (risk $100 to win $230).

For gamblers that think the fight ‘will go’ the distance, a plus-190 payout can be had (risk $100 to win $190), while the price is minus-240 that it ‘won’t go’ to the judges after five rounds.

If you like Silva to win but don’t want to risk the nearly 1/3 price, there are other betting options. Bettors can take the 185-pound kingpin to win by knockout for even money at several offshore websites. Also, a plus-333 payout is available if Silva wins by submission. Finally, Silva is minus-166 to win ‘inside the distance’ (by KO or submission).

We should note that in Sonnen’s last nine fights, six have gone the distance. Also, he’s only been KO’d twice in 39 career fights and those stoppages weren’t your typical KOs (one by his own corner, the other due to a cut).

There are 80/1 odds on the fight to be ruled a draw.

When these bitter rivals met inside the Octagon at UFC 117 in Oakland, Sonnen shocked the world by dominating Silva for 23 minutes. In each and every round, Sonnen was able to use his wresting to record one takedown after another that was followed by ground-and-pound treatment.

However, Sonnen couldn’t finish the champ and you never got the sense that Silva was completely beaten even though he had been badly battered. Working from the bottom, Silva landed a short, sharp elbow in the fourth round that opened up a big cut on Sonnen’s forehead.

The cut didn’t seem to bother Sonnen, but it seemingly gave Silva life. Before the final stanza, Silva raised his arms to encourage the crowd to get louder. But yet again, he was on his back quickly as the victim of another takedown.

With barely two minutes left to pull out a miracle, Silva did just that. From his back, he locked in a triangle choke that forced Sonnen to tap.

Since then, Sonnen (27-11-1 MMA, 6-4 UFC) has won both of his fights over Brian Stann (second-round triangle choke) and Michael Bisping (split decision). Meanwhile, Silva has defended his belt twice more with KO wins over Vitor Belfort (front kick) and Yushin Okami (second-round TKO).

Silva owns nearly every UFC record in the book, including nine consecutive title defenses. Other than Sonnen, only Dan Henderson and Patrick Cote have been competitive against Silva.

We can’t chronicle the bad blood between these middleweights because there’s simply too much ground to cover. In short, they hate each other and have verbally disrespected each other at every opportunity this week and beyond.

Prediction: Sonnen’s confidence is no mirage. There’s no doubt in my mind that he truly believes he’ll win this fight and do it with the same recipe he used that night at Oracle Arena. Many pundits feel like Anderson Silva is more focused than ever and that his uncharacteristic pre-fight trash talk is a sign that he’s really going to take care of business. But I’m not sure about that. The contrarian thought process is that Sonnen is in his head and has Silva off of his game. Whatever the case, we’re in for a thriller. I wouldn’t risk the expensive price on Silva but if you like him, go with the prop bet for him to win by KO for even money. Me? I’ll call for the upset and recommend a small play on Chael. (But don’t risk too much. After all, Silva hasn’t tasted defeat in 6 ½ years and never inside the Octagon.)

In the co-main event, the Hall of Fame career of Tito Ortiz (16-10-1 MMA, 16-10-1 UFC) will come to an end as he competes in the Octagon one final time to wrap up his trilogy with Forrest Griffin. Ortiz won their first meeting by split decision at UFC 59, but Griffin won the rematch via split dec. at UFC 106.

Ortiz made his UFC debut at UFC 13 in Augusta, GA., on May 30 of 1997. He won the light heavyweight title more than 12 years ago by beating Wanderlei Silva via unanimous decision in Tokyo at UFC 25. ‘The Huntington Beach Bad Boy’ would defend his belt a division-record five times and didn’t relinquish the title for a span of more than three years.

Ortiz lost the belt to Raundy Couture by unanimous decision at UFC 44. Next, he lost again to future champ Chuck Liddell by second-round KO at UFC 47.

Ortiz would respond, however, with a five-fight winning streak to earn another shot at the belt. Before his rematch with Liddell, Ortiz beat Patrick Cote, Vitor Belfort, Forrest Griffin and Ken Shamrock twice.

But Liddell had his number and won by third-round KO at UFC 66. That defeat for Ortiz was the start of a 0-4-1 stretch that lasted almost five years.

Then at UFC 132 last summer, Ortiz face Ryan Bader with his job on the line. Bader, whose only previous career loss came to current champ Jon Jones, was made an expensive favorite in the minus-600 range.

But Ortiz wasn’t willing to go peacefully into the night. He floored Bader in the first round with a big right and then locked hold of a guillotine choke to force the tap and get his hand raised. The crowd went nuts and Ortiz hooked up underdog backers with an enormous payout in the plus-475 range.

Then when Phil Davis had to pull out of his UFC 133 bout against Rashad Evans, Ortiz took the fight on short notice. Ortiz and Evans had fought to a draw back at UFC 73.

The fight was extremely competitive and early in the second stanza Ortiz appeared to be on the verge of another victory when he locked on another guillotine choke. However, Evans was able to wiggle out and finished the fight later in the round with a huge knee to the solarplexus. The match earned Fight of the Night honors.

Ortiz’s momentum was thwarted in his next bout when Antonio Rogerio Nogueiro beat him by first-round KO. Nevertheless, Dana White and Co. have given Ortiz one more chance to finish his career on a winning note.

Most spots are listing Griffin (18-7 MMA, 9-5 UFC) as a minus-320 favorite with Ortiz available for a plus-240 return (risk $100 to win $240).

Griffin is coming off a first-round KO loss to Shogun Rua last August. Prior to that, he beat Rich Franklin by unanimous decision.

Prediction: I like Griffin to win by decision for a plus-105 return. Five of Griffin’s last six wins have come via the judges.

In a middleweight clash, 40-year-old kickboxer Cung Le (7-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC) will collide with Canadian Patrick Cote. Most books are listing Cote as a minus-250 ‘chalk,’ while Le is a plus-190 underdog.

Cote has won four consecutive fights with other promotions since being let go by the UFC. He once fought for the 185-pound title against Silva before blowing out his knee in the fight.

Le made his UFC debut against Wanderlei Silva at UFC 139. The bout earned Fight of the Night honors but Silva won by KO late in the second round.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Like I tweeted the other night when I was watching the Countdown to UFC 148 show, Chael Sonnen: Best Shit Talker Ever.

After hearing Michael Bisping mention his name (and that of Alan Belcher) as possible opponents in his next fight, Brian Stann told MMAWeekly.com, “Of course I’d like to fight Michael Bisping.” I’m guessing Bisping would be a -190 favorite if that happens, but Belcher is the more likely opponent because there are questions as to whether or not Stann (recent shoulder injury) could be ready for UFC 152.

For the main event at UFC on Fox 4, 5Dimes is listing Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua as a minus-400 ‘chalk’ vs. Brandon Vera, who is the plus-280 underdog (risk $100 to win $280).

There are numbers out for two other main-card fights for UFC on Fox 4 at Staples Center in Los Angeles. Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida is heavily favored (-320 at 5Dimes) against Ryan Bader (+260) in a light heavyweight showdown. Also, Travis Browne is a minus-280 ‘chalk’ versus Ben Rothwell (+215ish).

UFC 148 Preview
By Bovada.lv

It's one of the most anticipated UFC bouts of 2012 on Saturday night at UFC 148 from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas when long-time middleweight champion Anderson Silva defends his title in a rematch with Chael Sonnen.

The 37-year-old Silva (31-4) is on any short list of the best MMA fighters of all-time and there's little doubt he is the top middleweight ever. "The Spider" won the title way back in 2006 at UFC 64 with a win over Rich Franklin and has successfully defended it a UFC-record nine times.

By far Silva's toughest fight in that stretch was when he took on Sonnen at UFC 117 in August 2010. Sonnen stunningly flat-out dominated for the first four rounds and the first few minutes of the fifth and final round; he was really the first opponent in the UFC to take the fight to Silva.

Sonnen was only two minutes from claiming the championship belt when he made a mistake, leaving himself open to a submission while in full guard. And Silva took advantage, clamping on a triangle armbar to elicit the tap out at 3:10 of the fifth round. It was one of the most stunning endings in UFC history.

Since that fight, the Brazilian Silva has had little trouble in beating Vitor Belfort by first-round knockout at UFC 126 and then taking out Yushin Okami by second-round technical knockout at UFC 134 last August. Thus Silva, who is 14-0 in the UFC, will have had nearly a year between bouts. He is one of the best strikers in UFC history and has finished 18 of his career victories by KO or TKO.

After serving a suspension from the California State Athletic Commission due to his UFC 117 drug test revealing elevated testosterone levels, Sonnen (27-11-1), 35, got back in the title hunt with a second-round submission of Brian Stann at UFC 136 and followed that with a unanimous decision victory over Michael Bisping in January at UFC on Fox 2. Sonnen's fights go the distance more often than not, with 16 of his wins coming via that route.

This rematch was originally planned to take place at a soccer stadium in Rio de Janeiro at UFC 147 last month, but was moved to Las Vegas when the UFC had trouble booking a venue.

The betting lean at Bovada has heavily favored Silva. About a month ago, Silva was at -280 with Sonnen at +220, and Silva was taking about 75 percent of the action on that number. It has since moved to -285/+225, with the champ still taking a little more than 71 percent of the action. This bout should be one of the Top 5 most-wagered MMA fights of the year.

Urijah Faber and Dominick Cruz were scheduled to meet in the co-main event at UFC 148 but Cruz suffered a torn ACL and the fight was dropped. So the replacement co-main event is a rubber match between former light-heavyweight champions Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz. Ortiz won their first meeting, at UFC 59, with Griffin winning the rematch at UFC 106. Both fights ended with a split decision.

The 37-year-old Ortiz (16-10-1) is another MMA legend. In fact, "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" will be rewarded for those accomplishments with his induction into the UFC Hall of Fame prior to what his expected to be the final bout of his career vs. Griffin. Ortiz has definitely seen better days in the Octagon as he has won just one of his past eight bouts.

Griffin (18-7), the first-ever winner of "The Ultimate Fighter" in 2005, has lost three of his past five fights. He was last in the Octagon at UFC 134, getting knocked out in the first round by Mauricio Rua.

Ortiz is taking the betting lean on this one. Back in early June, Griffin was a -325 favorite with Ortiz at +250, and Ortiz took more than 65 percent of the action on that number. That has moved the line to its current -315/+245 and Ortiz continues to take about the same action.

Bet on UFC 148 now at Bovada Sportsbook.

UFC 148 Betting Notes
By Sportsbook.ag

Anderson Silva (29-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (28-11-1)

Line: Silva -300, Sonnen +240

In rematch of UFC 117, Anderson Silva will look to defend his UFC middleweight title against Chael Sonnen in Saturday's main event of UFC 148 in Las Vegas.

Silva is the winner of 15 consecutive fights, never having lost since he earned the middleweight title in 2006 with a win over Rich Franklin. Sonnen's last loss was his 2010 submission to Silva, but he has rebounded well with a submission win over Brian Stann and a unanimous decision victory over Michael Bisping in January. Notably, however, Sonnen is looking to avenge his loss to Silva in which he tested positive for drugs after the fight. Silva is perhaps the premier striker in all of UFC, and he showed that in their last bout. But his submission victory proved his well-rounded skill set, taking advantage of fortunate positioning to earn the win despite being outhit by Sonnen throughout the course of the fight. With Sonnen's excellent wrestling skills and the strong striking he has shown lately, he certainly has what it takes to bring down the reigning champ if everything breaks his way. And there will be no shortage of intrigue in this fight with the variety of storylines -- performance-enhancing drugs, revenge and the longest winning streak in UFC.

Despite being 37 years old, "The Spider" Silva has had no trouble making quick work of anybody thrown his way. He has two straight knockouts with a TKO of Yushin Okami in his last bout, and a first-round KO of Vitor Belfort in his previous fight. Silva has 18 career wins via knockout and six from submissions. Of all his opponents, however, Sonnen gave him the best fight-reports were that after the fight, Sonnen would have won should it have reached a judges' decision. But, Silva earned that fifth-round submission, so it never got there.

After Sonnen tested positive for PEDs following the Silva fight, his stock was down. But, he has boosted it back up since then with two strong wins that have reasserted him among the elite in the middleweight class. Those wins earned him this much-anticipated rematch after he nearly won the last time. Sonnen's wrestling skills caused Silva a great deal of trouble last time, setting up the way for strikes and an effective attacking style that Silva was not prepared for. Silva will undoubtedly be more prepared this time, but Sonnen's skills undeniably pose a threat to Silva.

Forrest Griffin (18-7) vs. Tito Ortiz (17-10-1)

Line: Griffin -400, Ortiz +300

In another rematch on the UFC 148 card, Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz will battle Saturday night for a third time in a bout between two former light heavyweight champs.

This fight represents what will likely be Ortiz's last bout, with the veteran being inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame prior to the fight. Ortiz is calling it quits for good reason-he has lost two consecutive fights and six of his past eight, one of which was to Griffin in a split decision in UFC 106. In particular, Ortiz has shown he is vulnerable to strong striking attacks, losing both of his last two fights by TKO. Although Griffin did not look his best in his most recent bout either, a first-round defeat at the hands of Mauricio Rua, he should be able to fend off Ortiz's wrestling advances fairly easily. As long as Griffin is able to keep that distance, he should have no trouble making relatively easy work of Ortiz, who as his recent string of losses shows, just does not have enough fuel to win another fight against a quality opponent. Griffin's kicking will be instrumental in fending off Ortiz. Still, going down either by KO or a decision against his nemesis Griffin is an appropriate way for Ortiz to end his career.

In Griffin's last bout, he was outworked by Rua, who quickly earned a knockout in the first round. But don't expect Griffin to come out looking like that again. The 33-year-old Griffin is not the fighter he once was-he had defeated Rua back in 2007-but he is still a guy who belongs among the elite in the light heavyweight class. In his two fights before losing to Rua, he had defeated Rich Franklin and Ortiz, with the Franklin fight coming in 2011 after a long layoff. Griffin's strong legs and expert grappling skills, having won seven times in his career via submission, should let him take this fight against a familiar opponent.

Ortiz's best shot at winning this one is turning it into a wrestling match, something Griffin will look to avoid. Ortiz's most recent win was a submission last July over Ryan Bader in UFC 132, but since then he has looked sluggish with two consecutive losses that showed he is truly over the hill. If the 37-year-old Ortiz can coax Griffin into letting him make this a close-contact takedown battle, he has a chance for the upset. But Griffin has always been a fighter smart enough to avoid his opponents' strengths, and this fight should be no different.

Cung Le (7-2) vs. Patrick Cote (18-7)

Line: Cote -220, Le +170

Cung Le will look to rebound from his second career loss and prove he belongs among the elite in the middleweight division with win over Patrick Cote on UFC 148's main card Saturday night.

Cote enters this fight as the favorite, once placing himself near the top of the middleweights until he lost to Anderson Silva challenging for the divisional crown. Two losses followed that defeat, but he then left UFC and has since won four straight. Le lost his last bout to Wanderlei Silva, but before that earned an impressive KO over Scott Smith after losing to him in their previous fight. Cote is a traditional striker with immense punching power and he will need to get close to Le in order to pounce. That can be difficult, however, given that Le is one of the most powerful kickers in the game and gives his opponents plenty of confusing looks. Given the incredible power both of these fighters will bring to the octagon, and great shot at a knockout from either side, this fight is difficult to predict. But Le figures to have a strong shot at coming out on top in this one as an elite kickboxer.

Le has won seven of his nine career fights, with each of those wins being a knockout. Wanderlei Silva was able to beat Le in a second round TKO, but Le certainly did not look overmatched there, fighting one of the best middleweights in the world. His kicks are a dangerous threat to any opponent, and fighting somebody who has not been in UFC in the last two years, he could catch Cote off guard, giving him a good chance at this upset.

Cote has won four consecutive bouts, but he lost his last three fights in UFC. Le dropped his only UFC bout but it was that strong showing versus Silva. Cote has shown he can win every which way in his career, but his two most recent wins have been knockouts. His punches have a chance to take Le down quickly, but only if he can remain patient and make sure he keeps the fight close enough so that the kicking part of his attack is less of a factor.

UFC 148 Betting Preview
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

You’ve got to be good to be lucky or you’ve got to be lucky to be good?

Depending on which side of the UFC 148 main event you’re betting on - Anderson Silva or Chael Sonnen - you subscribe to one of these clichés.

For those wagering on the UFC middleweight champ, you’re a big believer that Silva (-275) wasn’t lucky to escape with a late fifth-round submission win over Sonnen (+215) when the two men did battle at UFC 117 in August 2010.

And, if you’re putting your money down on Sonnen, you’re confident the champ pulled a rabbit out of his trunks after getting pummeled for five rounds, only to steal the win on a slick armbar with just 1:50 remaining in the bout.

Renowned mixed martial arts oddsmaker, Joey Oddessa, is a fan of the former – and of Silva.

“You make your own luck,” Oddessa told Covers. “Twenty-five minutes is a long time to be in there against a guy like Anderson Silva. I call Anderson a ‘heart snatcher' fighter. If you don't get his respect early and keep it, he will find a way to break you.”

Sonnen was able to grab the champ’s respect immediately into their first meeting, exploding out of the gate with a series of strikes that wobbled Silva in the opening round.

Silva, who has looked nearly invisible to opponents at times, had absorbed only 208 blows in the 11 fights leading up to UFC 117, according to CompuStrike. Against Sonnen, the Brazilian was lit up by 289 strikes and was down on the judges’ scorecards before earning the submission.

Oddessa says Sonnen caught Silva off guard in their first meeting and fought a near-perfect bout. The challenger’s right hands landed with consistency and he overpowered the pound-for-pound best MMA athlete in the world, with the help of a rib injury to Silva that was disclosed in the post-fight interview.

“I don't think Sonnen can improve on anything he did in the last bout except avoid the triangle in Round 5,” says Oddessa. “Silva, on the other hand, looked a little flat that night and has had better nights. I think he will take Chael more serious this time and fight a much better and more disciplined fight. Coming in with no injuries can't hurt.”

The two have been at each other’s throats ever since UFC 117, most recently trading barbs on sports talk radio shows. Even Silva, who is usually reserved and steers clear of the trash talk, erupted during a conference call claiming,

“I'm going to make sure that every one of his teeth are broken, that his arms are broken and his legs are broken. He's not going to be able to walk out of the Octagon by himself. I can guarantee that. He will need a plastic surgeon afterward."

While all the smack and posturing are taken with a grain of salt (they’re trying to sell a product, after all), those pre-fight interviews and weigh-in confrontations do have an impact on the betting public, especially in the hours before a card.

“Until Silva started selling the fight and predicting knockouts, the general public looked like it may have all drove Silva’s price to the low -200's,” says Oddessa. “I think the players that made it to the funeral and near missed an overpriced wedding of Anderson Silva will be whistling in the graveyard again.”

“Silva supporters should get a much more reasonable price to lay by fight time.”

UFC 148 leans

Anderson Silva (-275) vs. Chael Sonnen (+215)

Silva’s near loss to Sonnen in 2010 was a wake-up call for the champ, who was getting dangerously complacent atop the MMA world. I don’t expect him to sleep on Sonnen again Saturday.

Forrest Griffin (-355) vs. Tito Ortiz (+260)

This is supposedly Ortiz’s swan song, so he'll go out on his shield. I’ve never been a big fan of Griffin. I think his loyal following makes him overrated and therefore overvalued. Ortiz has just one win in his last eight bouts, but they’ve all come against class fighters.

Cung Le (+185) vs. Patrick Cote (-250)

Both guys seem like they’re fighting for a sandwich here. Le has yet to earn a UFC win while Cote hasn’t been in the promotion’s winner’s circle since 2008 and has been mopping up in the minors since being released by the UFC in 2010. He’s really only here because he had to replace Rich Franklin.

Dong Hyun Kim (-145) vs. Damien Maia (+115)

Maia, one of the most feared submission artists in MMA, makes the drop to welterweight for this matchup. If his cut goes fine, he’s a live dog to win this one on the ground or on the cards.

Chad Mendes (-715) vs. Cody McKenzie (+450)

Mendes took a good knock from José Aldo at UFC 142 but should be fine against an opponent dropping to 145 pounds for the first time. That’s a lot of chalk, though. I'd rather spend the money on chicken wings for fight night.

Ivan Menjivar (-105) vs. Mike Easton (-125)

Replacement fights are always tricky but Menjivar has had enough time to retool for Easton. But there’s a reason Easton is the fave and his power and striking have improved.