2014 U.S. Open Odds To Win: Rory McIlroy Favored By Oddsmakers

U.S. Open Preview
By Dan Daly
VegasInsider.com

This is a very bittersweet week for me. On the one hand it will be the last US Open on NBC which means the end of Johnny Miller covering the US Open. Love him or hate (I happen to fall in the former) the US Open without Johnny Miller is like a wedding reception without liquor. It will still go on, it just won’t be nearly as much fun. This marks the 41 year anniversary of Miller’s win at Oakmont so I’m setting the over/under at 41 “63 in ’73” references by my man Johnny…and I would take the over. I know this much, there will be tears shed when they sign off, probably by me but definitely by Johnny Miller. FOX may do a great job going forward, who knows, but just thinking about them trying to cover the US Open instead of NBC makes me want to cry.

On the other hand it also means this will be the last US Open we have to listen Chris Berman call the Thursday/Friday portion of the US Open and I think we can ALL agree that’s a good thing. No more David “Ground Control to Major” Toms references or Jason “Bad to the” Bohn references. Do a Twitter search for "Chris Berman" during his live coverage of the US Open this week, the mutual hatred shared for him is comical.

As for the tournament itself, “It’s not just the biggest golf tournament in the world; it’s the most democratic. I mean it's open. Anyone's got a shot at it. You just gotta get past a local and a sectional qualifier, and unlike Doral or Colonial or the A.T.T., they can't keep you out. They can't ask you if you're a garbage man or a bean-picker or a driving range pro whose check is signed by a stripper. You qualify, you're in.” Well, that may be true Roy but qualifying is one thing, winning is an entirely different animal. So let’s look at who really has a shot this week.

No chance in hell group:

Bubba Watson (28/1): As long as the USGA is still in charge of the course set-up Bubba Watson will not win a US Open.

Lee Westwood (35/1): As long as the US Open is considered a major Lee Westwood will not win the US Open.

Jim Furyk (35/1): Unless they shorten the US Open to 66 holes Jim Furyk will not win another US Open. #5hourenergy

Rickie Fowler (55/1): Last I checked he still only has one PGA Tour win. Let’s see if he can win something a little smaller like a John Deere or Colonial before we put him in the running for a major.

I would be shocked if they won group:

Steve Stricker (55/1): He was right in the thick of it last year until the second hole Sunday ended his chances. He’s basically a really talented part-time employee at this point in his career.

Webb Simpson (55/1): Two US Opens in three years? Not happening.

Hunter Mahan (45/1): After watching him whine his way through the final round last year while in contention I don’t think he is mentally capable of winning a US Open.

Jason Day (26/1): Definitely has the game to win if his thumb is ok. Problem is, I don’t think it is.

Justin Rose (26/1): Justin Rose will be bidding to become the US Open's first back-to-back winner in 25 years. Let’s just say I don’t like his odds. (See California Chrome)

Luke Donald (35/1): If the guy is ever going to win a major, well, he would have done it two years ago, but the US Open has to be his best shot of the four.

Zach Johnson (45/1): Just shoot me now if he wins this week.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance group:

Sergio Garcia (35/1): Sergio actually played really well last year except for two holes, 14 and 15. He played those two holes in 16 over for the week (including a septuple-bogey 10) and played the other 64 holes in one under. Plus Tiger is out this year, he is basically Sergio’s kryptonite.

Martin Kaymer (40/1): Apparently the dude learned how to play golf again? For years I’ve been saying where’d he go? And people were like where’d whoooo go… Yeah, and he's laughing at us. (If you don’t get that reference I can’t help you).

Henrik Stenson (30/1): I got nothin’, but just trust me, he isn’t going to win.

My wife wants him to win group:

Graeme McDowell (35/1): Good year…bad year…doesn’t matter. The guy just shows up in majors where even par matters.

The contenders group:

Matt Kuchar (23/1): You know he will be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon…the question with him is, was and continues to be…can he close down the stretch?

Dustin Johnson (35/1): Dude is silly talented, has been this close to winning several majors already and will close the deal one of these days in a major. He’ll be there Sunday afternoon.

Jordan Spieth (20/1): He may win this week, he may not, but would you bet against him winning a major sooner than later? Me neither. Plus he just did this.

Rory McIlroy (10/1): Free at last, free at last, thank god almighty I’m free at last. Turns out the equipment was the problem after all…just not the equipment we all thought it was.

Adam Scott (15/1): I mean, is there a tournament in the world you don’t like his chances right now?

The final group:

Phil FIGJAM Mickelson (16/1): As if his US Open failures weren’t a big enough story already throw in the fact that he is now just a US Open away from the career grand slam and we are returning to Pinehurst #2 where he famously lost to Payne Stewart in 1999. They might as well just rename the Golf Channel the Mickelson Channel this week. I’ve already called AT&T U-Verse and ask them to remove TGC for the week.

So “what will Phil do next?”

Well, I actually thought he might win the US Open this year to be honest with you….and then I read this quote. "It's a tournament I've played too well in over the years not to finally win and I actually believe I'll win a couple.'' I’m sorry, a couple? As in, two more than zero? Yeah, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here Phil.

So I ask myself, since he isn’t going to win how does he finish second at a US Open yet again? He’s lost from ahead, behind, in the last group, in the second to last group, on the 18th hole several times, you name it, and he’s done it. I mean look…when you’ve finished second place SIX times in one tournament you’ve done it all. And then it hit me; he has actually yet to finish second by losing in a playoff.

Phil FIGJAM Mickelson, going for the career grand slam at the course where he played with a fake baby pager will once again get himself into the final group. At which point he will hold a two-shot lead through 67 holes only to hit an overly aggressive iron into #14 which will fly the green leading to a short game meltdown behind the hole and a subsequent double bogey. He will eventually end up in a Monday playoff where he will not only lose but immediately be arrested for insider trading while walking off the 18th green by FBI Special Agent Johnny Utah.

Your winner in that playoff?

My man, Jason Dufner (35/1): While Phil is being escorted away in handcuffs Dufner will celebrate once again by throwing in a pinch, handing his wife the can and slapping her on the ass on National TV.

It’s the US Open after all…What’s more American than that?

Golfers to Bet - U.S. Open
By Sportsbook.ag

Tournament: 114th U.S. Open
Date: June 12-15, 2014
Venue: Pinehurst No. 2
Location: Pinehurst, North Carolina

One of the PGA’s major championships begins this week in the 114th installment of the U.S. Open. Last year, Justin Rose was the player to make the least mistakes at Merion C.C. with a score of 1-over par, beating out both Jason Day and Phil Mickelson by two strokes.

In the past, this has been one of the tougher championships to score low in, which places the elite golfers at the top of the leaderboard often, as each of the past four champions currently sit in the top-35 of the World Golf Rankings.

Pinehurst No. 2 has hosted the U.S. Open twice in the past (1999 and 2005) and has really given golfers trouble with just one player (Payne Stewart) being able to shoot better than par in that time. In 2005, Michael Campbell pulled out an unexpected win as he held off a Tiger Woods effort while in his prime.

In a season that has been dominated by newcomers, let’s take a look at a few players who could shine brightest at this very tough par-70, 7,214-yard course this weekend.

Golfers to Watch

Phil Mickelson (13/1): Mickelson has certainly not been having his best season, as he has failed to place in the top-10 in any of his 14 events, but his past performances at this tournament and desire to complete a career major grand slam should be bigger factors here. This is the one major he has not been able to conquer despite being the runner-up six times; including placing second at Pinehurst back in 1999. His short game has continued to be solid, with a sand-save percentage of 61.3% (8th on tour) while he's scrambling at a rate of 61% (36th on tour). It is tough to bet on anyone who has failed to break the top-10 this year, but Lefty has the pedigree and drive to finally win this weekend.

Matt Kuchar (25/1): Kuchar has the even composure needed to grind out a victory at the always tough U.S. Open. He has yet win a major in his career, but is having a tremendous season with nine top-10 finishes in 15 events; including placing fifth at The Masters. His driving accuracy (61.2%, 21st on tour) and ability to scramble from the rough (63.6%, 9th on tour) have led to the second-best scoring average (69.53) on the tour this year. Kuchar seems poised to become the next top player to win the U.S. Open.

Hideki Matsuyama (50/1): Matsuyama already has six professional wins under his belt at 22 years old, five on the Japan Golf Tour and one on the PGA Tour, as he seems to have the even keel to be unaffected by the pressure of a major. He placed in the top-20 in each of the three majors that he played in last year, which included finishing 10th in this tournament. Matsuyama has converted a birdie or better 34.5% of the time (5th on tour) and this will be important as he tries to break par. This youngster has the looks of a big-time competitor and this is a great place to have a breakout performance.

Jason Dufner (35/1): Dufner has always looked calm on the golf course and that has led him to two consecutive fourth-place finishes at the U.S. Open and a victory at the PGA Championship last year. He has already finished in the top-10 four times in 12 tries this season, and has a major under his belt. The 16th-ranked player in the world is ready for the challenge of Pinehurst, and is a value pick with his odds.

Brendon Todd (95/1): Todd is one of the hottest players on tour with top-8 finishes in each of his past three tournaments which has placed him ninth in the FedEx Cup standings. He has not played in the U.S. Open before, but could use his great sand-save abilities (60.5%, 11th on tour) and strokes gained putting (.801, 7th on tour) to continue his recent success come Sunday.

Check out more Golf Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

U.S. Open Preview and Picks
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com

Pinehurst No. 2 plays host to the 114th edition of the U.S. Open and it will be a dramatic change from what we are used to when it comes to the national championship. Thick, long and tiered rough was the calling card for the U.S. Open but we will be seeing a much different layout this week. Pinehurst No. 2 was set up with the typical unforgiving rough the first two times it hosted back in 1999 and 2005 but a complete overhaul of the course has brought it back to its roots.

While the first Pinehurst course opened in 1895, Donald Ross designed the famed No. 2 course in 1907 but it lost its original layout and look over the years. Fairways that bleed into sandy wiregrass areas were lost to the typical rough that we see on most courses these days and in 2010, Pinehurst started a $2.5 million renovation led by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw. They set out to restore the natural look and intent that Ross put forth and they were successful in doing so.

Ross' trademark convex greens were left alone but the fairways were widened, some by as much as 50 percent, and 13 new tees were added with many of those going much further back than before. While the rough is essentially gone, that doesn't mean it sets up any easier as players will face lies in sandy areas covered with loose vegetation and wire brush plants. The course will play at a length of 7,562 yards, compared to 7,175 yards at the 1999 U.S. Open and 7,214 at the 2005 U.S. Open.

While the thought is that the Majors are dominated by the world's best players, that has hardly been the case. Of the last 21 Majors, there have been 18 different winners with Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson being the only two-time Major winners. As far as the U.S. Open, eight of the last nine winners hoisted the trophy for the first time, with Tiger Woods in 2008 being his third title. American players used to dominate but only three of the last 10 winners have been from the United States.

The defending champion is Justin Rose (+3,000) and while has been playing decent, he has not been contending very often. He has a pair of solo fifths and a T4 but has yet to crack the top three. History is not on his side as only one player has been able to defend his title since 1951 when Curtis Strange backed up his 1988 U.S. Open Championship at The Country Club with a win in 1989 at Oak Hill.

The odds are not great on Phil Mickelson (+1,300) but we are including him as the course setup arguably helps him the most of anyone. He has not had a good season by his standards and has not had a top ten finish but he is coming off his best finish of the season last week with a T11 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. His U.S. Open record is outstanding and his short game could help him complete the career grand slam.

The wrist injury to Jason Day (+3,000) has gotten better and he will be out win his first ever Major. He has been in contention numerous times as he has appeared in 14 of them, yet already he has four top-three finishes and that includes two of which have come from his three appearances at the U.S. Open. His WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship shows he can win on a big stage.

Jason Dufner (+3,500) has made 10 cuts in 11 medal play events and while he has yet to win, he has been consistently good. He has four top tens including a solo fifth at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and a solo second two starts back at the Colonial after losing in a playoff. He already is a major winner so he knows how to get it done and he is one of two golfers to have top fives at two of the last three U.S. Opens.

Jim Furyk (+3,500) possess the game to fit the U.S. Open and he is a past champion back in 2003. He has not missed a cut this season while posting back-to-back runner ups at the Wells Fargo and The Players Championship. Eight of his last 10 starts have resulted in a T20 or better and he leads the PGA Tour in scrambling and ranks fourth in bogey avoidance so he is another player whose game fits here.

Charl Schwartzel (+5,000) continues to not get much pub but his T8 at the Memorial in his last start was his fifth T12 or better finish in nine medal play events including three of his last four. He is a major champion, winning the 2011 Masters and has made the cut in the last four U.S. Opens. This includes a T16 in 2010, a T9 in 2011 and a solo 14th last year. Great odds for positive converging trends.

Hunter Mahan (+6,000) has been very quiet for a while as injuries have slowed him down but he is healthy and rested after taking the last two weeks off. He has four top tens this season and while he hasn't won since the Shell Houston Open in 2012, this venue can change that. He has made five of seven U.S. Open cuts with four top 20's including a T6 in 2009 and a T4 at Merion last year.

Recommended Tournament Win Six Pack at the U.S. Open (all for One Unit)

Phil Mickelson (+1,300)
Jason Day (+3,000)
Jason Dufner (+3,500)
Jim Furyk (+3,500)
Charl Schwartzel (+5,000)
Hunter Mahan (+6,000)

2014 Record to date after 21 events: -52 Units