2014 World Cup Odds To Win: Brazil Favored Entering Knockout Stage

Round of 16 - Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com

The group stages of the World Cup are over. Half the teams still harbour hopes of being victorious in Rio on July 13th, while the other half have boarded the plane home, their hopes gone for another four years. The knockout stages of the tournament is where heroes are made. This is where it gets really interesting.

The real story of the World Cup so far has been the success of the South American teams, and the comparative failure of the Europeans. Brazil and Argentina both eased through their groups, while Chile and Colombia have fully lived up to their billing as potential surprise packages. Uruguay, after a shock 3-1 defeat to Costa Rica in the opening round, responded in typically belligerent style to record wins over Italy and England to go through, though not without serious controversy.

Four European teams, with six World Cups between them, have gone out at the first stage: Italy, England, Portugal and Spain. England simply weren't good enough, Italy were let down by one awful performance against Costa Rica, while Portugal’s exit was partly attributable to indiscipline, group rivals who exceeded expectations, and the lack of fitness of Cristiano Ronaldo. I predicted that Spain would find out that their style no longer worked, but I was amazed at quite how brutal their exit was.

My original major tip was Argentina and, despite three rather flawed performances, I am going to stick with Alejandro Sabella’s side. The team that wins the World Cup is rarely the team that starts best; rather, it is the team that gradually improves as the tournament goes on. I have drawn great encouragement from the fact that, despite struggling for periods, they won all three games. Winning when not at your best is perhaps the most important characteristic of a successful team.

And they have Lionel Messi who, luckily for fans, has turned up in his full majesty for this tournament. He has four goals already, two of which were absolutely crucial in securing wins. His performances have made up for disappointing contributions so far from Sergio Aguero and Gonzalo Higuain. Aguero is now out of the rest of the tournament with an injury.

They are in by far the easiest half of the draw. After facing Switzerland in the last 16, they meet either Belgium or the USA in the quarter-finals, with a likely meeting with the Netherlands in the semis. They cannot meet any of France, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Germany until the final, and play all of their games at reasonable times and in moderate conditions. At 4/1 I’m happy to have a top up on the Argentines.

At 3/1, Brazil seem much less appealing. They face Chile in the last 16, who are very hard to set up against. They play a formation (a sort of 3-4-1-2 with two wide forwards - told you it was odd) which no-one else in world football uses, and their relentless pressing means teams often struggle to get into a rhythm against them. Brazil’s usually sound defence has had some moments of real slackness so far, and Chile could punish them.

Even if they get past Chile, they would probably play Colombia, followed by either France or Germany. And that’s before the final - 3/1 is far too short.

I may have underestimated Germany, but I still feel they are to be swerved at 4/1. They only put in one truly excellent performance in the group stage and even in that, a 4-0 win over Portugal, their opponents had 10 men and had given up for half the match. Their three games have been played in the north-eastern cities of Fortaleza, Salvador and Recife, all played in ferociously hot temperatures. This will surely have taken the edge of Joachim Löw’s side, and I wonder how their stamina will hold for the knockout rounds.

France have been one of the teams of the tournament so far. Robbed of Franck Ribéry through injury, Les Bleus have shown they have an abundance of talent behind him. Mathieu Valbuena is a wonderfully gifted little midfielder who pulls the strings, while Karim Benzema, after a dreadful Euro 2012, has looked in fine form. They will surely beat Nigeria in the last 16, setting up a potential clash with Germany in the quarter-final. What a game that could be.

France are superb, but they may have peaked a little early and, while I’d back them to get to the semi-finals, I’d be wary of backing them if they were to face Brazil or Argentina. 7/1 seems about right.

This does not look like a vintage Netherlands side, but they won all three games in a very tough group, and have been given a delightfully kind path to the semi-finals. They face Mexico, before playing the winner of Costa Rica v Greece, two teams predicted to finish bottom of their groups. In Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie they have two geniuses, but they look too short of quality elsewhere to justify quotes of 11/2.

Colombia put in three really good performances to win Group C. Most encouraging of all was a 4-1 win over Japan, when they had already qualified. Attacking midfielder James Rodriguez has possibly been the player of the tournament so far. The suspension for Luis Suarez has pushed them into around 1/1 to beat Uruguay in the last 16, after which they have been drawn against either Chile or hosts Brazil. Despite a hard draw, it is hard to ignore 18/1 on a team that was second to none in the group stages.

I’m still not convinced by Belgium at 15/1, and I think they have a really tough draw as they take on the USA, who are 40/1 to win it. Chile are 30/1, but their defence just looks that little bit too flawed for them to be a realistic winner.

Top Bets: Argentina to win the World Cup at 4/1, Colombia to win the World Cup at 18/1