AT&T Byron Nelson - Golfers to Bet
StatFox.com
Some of the world’s top golfers will be out there for the AT&T Byron Nelson this weekend. Last week, the golfers played in THE PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass. Si Woo Kim won that one, shooting a 10-under in an event that saw none of the world’s top golfers playing their best. Now the golfers head to a course that Sergio Garcia will be very excited to play on. Garcia won the AT&T Byron Nelson last year, shooting a 15-under to defeat Brooks Koepka in a playoff. It was Garcia’s second time winning the event, so he will definitely be very confident in his chances when he steps out on the course for this one. There will, however, be a lot of talented players gunning for the victory this weekend. This field is set to include guys like Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Garcia, Jason Day, Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, and Brandt Snedeker. It should make for one exciting event, but don’t play it without checking out some of our best values of the weekend: Dustin Johnson (5-to-1) - Dustin Johnson has been pretty good since returning from a back injury that kept him out of The Masters, and now is the time for him to earn another tournament victory. Johnson finished tied for 12th at THE PLAYERS last week, and that result came after he earned a second-place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago. Johnson is still the best golfer in the game, and he just might do a bit better than usual in a tournament that shouldn’t have him feeling too pressured. He’s a good play at 5-to-1.
Jason Day (16-to-1) - Day had a weekend to forget at THE PLAYERS, where he was defending his championship from 2016. Day started off Thursday with some outstanding play, but it really went downhill from there. He ended up shooting a seven-over and finishing tied for 60th in the event. Still, Day is far too talented to be receiving odds like 16-to-1 in any tournament. He also happens to have won this thing back in 2010, so he definitely knows how to play the course. Overall, his value is too good to pass up.
Louis Oosthuizen (28-to-1) - Louis Oosthuizen is a tremendous value at 28-to-1, and he is worth taking a shot on with a half-unit or quarter-unit. Oosthuizen has never won this tournament, but he is a very good golfer and is playing well as we enter this weekend. Oosthuizen was one of the few big names to show up at THE PLAYERS last weekend, shooting a seven-under to finish tied for second in “the fifth major”. Expect some of that solid play to carry over into this week, when Oosthiuzen will be trying to earn his first win of the year.
Steven Bowditch (500-to-1) - To say this has been a season to forget for Bowditch would be an understatement. The 33-year-old has missed cuts in 13 straight events, and that is probably why Vegas isn’t giving him much of a shot to win this one. There’s no arguing that he should not be viewed very favorably coming into this one. Still, Bowditch won this event as recently as 2015. He shot an 18-under to win that year, putting on the most dominant display this tournament has seen since Rory Sabbatini shot a 19-under in 2009. If he can somehow recapture his magic here then his odds would mean a gigantic payday for those that back him with the smallest of plays.
AT&T Byron Nelson Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com
The PGA Tour heads back to Texas this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson from the TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas in Irving, Texas. Irving has served as host city to the Nelson for 32 years and this event is the ninth longest running active tournament on the schedule. Despite following THE PLAYERS Championship, the field is still strong and we should be in store for another great weekend.
This will be the 10th year the TPC will be the sole host but this will be its last as Trinity Forest Golf Club takes over next year. The winning score that first year was -7 by Adam Scott and the higher score can be attributed to the earlier date, late April, as opposed to the late May date that it now takes place at. Eight years ago, Rory Sabbatini broke the tournament record at -19 while seven years ago, Jason Day brought home the championship at -10. The only other winning score in single digits was by Keegan Bradley in 2011 at -3.
The TPC Four Seasons Resort is a 7,166-yard, par 70 layout and while there are plenty of hazards to deal with, it is the tough wind that players need to figure out. That will be the case again as the forecast is calling for high winds throughout the weekend. Hitting fairways has always been tough here and last year was no exception but because of the short course length, above average putting is essential. Also, players that are familiar with Texas winds is also a good asset to have.
Emphasis on strong putting will make a big difference in success or lack thereof. Long range putting is the key since Las Colinas ranked as one of the easier courses in turning greens in regulation into par breakers. Eight players in the field this week are ranked in the top ten in putting from outside 10 feet and of those, four finished in the top four in the tournament last year (Sergio Garcia win, Brook Koepka second, Tim Wilkinson fourth and Robert Garrigus fourth).
There are other statistical areas that we have to take into consideration as well. Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green is important every week but even more so here because of the layout. There are seven players that are ranked in the top ten in this category that are playing this week and four of those finished in the top ten here last year (Sergio Garcia win, Matt Kuchar third, Robert Garrigus fourth and Kyle Reifers tenth). The other three players in field are Dustin Johnson, Sean O’Hair and Jason Dufner.
Course history is important because of the certain key categories that need to be done well so backing players with success here is a good route to go. Matt Kuchar is a perfect 9/9 with four top 15s including a solo third last year. Dustin Johnson is 7/7 with four top tens including two in the last three years. Sergio Garcia has only missed the cut three times in 12 trips while winning twice and Jason Day is a perfect 4/4 with three tops tens including a win in 2010.
Dustin Johnson is the heavy favorite at +430 with Jordan Spieth and Sergio Garcia being the next closest at +1,200. Brooks Koepka, who lost in a playoff last year to Garcia is +1,500 while Jason Day comes in at +1,800. There is a big dropoff after that as Charley Hoffman, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed and Tony Finau all are at +3,500.
The First of Two in Texas
By Brady Kannon
Covers.com
Lord Byron. Byron Nelson. The man who once won eleven tournaments IN A ROW represents this week's stop on The PGA Tour with the tournament bearing his name. Byron Nelson won the very first edition of this event in 1944. Since then, the biggest names in golf have gone on to capture this prize but in recent years, the tournament has struggled to attack a star-studded field. For many years, players showed up to honor Mr. Nelson but since his passing in 2006, the class of the field has taken a hit. Tour players do not love the golf course, TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas in Irving, Texas, for the most part. Tweaks to the design, minor and major, have been made over the years in hopes for improvement but the fact is, this will be the last year The AT&T Byron Nelson is staged here and next year a new venue will play host, Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas, Texas. Not all is lost however as there are a handful of big names in attendance this week to keep things interesting, including Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, and Jason Day.
TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas is a tree-lined golf course with water coming into play on nearly half of the holes. The rough off of the fairways can be pretty thick and could be nasty this week with thunderstorms scattered throughout the weather forecast. The wind will be blowing pretty steady before calming down some on Saturday and Sunday into the 10-12 mile per hour range. The golf course is a Par 70, so scoring on the Par 4's will be important. Over time, TPC Four Seasons has shown to be a ball strikers course with Greens in Regulation being the most common thread amongst the winners. Driving Distance is a factor but I would not term it a "bombers" course as Driving Accuracy is a trait we have seen carry shorter hitters to the winners circle as well.
Back in March we had The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill but this week kicks off a run of three straight weeks in which a legend of the game is tied to the tournament. Byron Nelson of course and then next week it is on to Colonial Country Club, often associated with the late great Ben Hogan. Finally, two weeks from now, we'll be at The Memorial, a tournament hosted by Jack Nicklaus at Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio. Keep in mind, we are also now just 30-days away from the start of the season's second Major Championship, The U.S. Open.
The Favorites
Dustin Johnson (+5.560 Pinnacle) Since his return to action following the back injury at The Masters, DJ has finished 2nd and 12th. 12th last week at The PLAYERS being his highest ever finish in that championship. His last six finishes at The Byron Nelson are 12-8-7-20-7-and-4th.
Sergio Garcia (+15.890 Pinnacle) The PLAYERS was the first time we'd seen Sergio since he won The Masters and he was very solid in his return. Here he is the defending champion. He also won back in 2004 and has two Top 20 finishes since the redesign in 2008.
Jordan Spieth (+15.890 Pinnacle) Spieth's 3rd missed cut in a row at The PLAYERS was well publicized last week. His results here are similarly disappointing for the Dallas native as he is yet to record a Top 15 finish in six tries. He was in the final pairing on Sunday last year before slipping into a tie for 18th.
The Contenders
Jason Day (+19.460 Pinnacle) The inconsistency this season continues for this former Byron Nelson winner. Last week at The PLAYERS he started out looking like he could win it again but collapsed on Sunday, shooting an 80. In four tries here at The Nelson he has a win in 2010 and two additional Top 10's.
Brooks Koepka (+1775 Bookmaker) Koepka is really coming into form with yet another strong showing last week. He arrives this week to a place at which he finished 2nd last year to Sergio and 16th the year before that. I expect him to be in the conversation on Sunday again this week.
Louis Oosthuizen (+3500 5Dimes) Oosthuizen is still yet to have a win on U.S. soil after finishing 2nd last week at The PLAYERS. His track record here is anything but stellar despite an 11th place finish in 2014.
The Long Shots
Tony Finau (+3500 5Dimes) Finau has missed two straight cuts on Tour but took 3rd the last time he was in the state of Texas at The Valero Texas Open a month ago. The long bomber is a popular choice this week as in two trips here to TPC Four Seasons, he has finished 10th and 12th.
Marc Leishman (+51.690 Pinnacle) Australians have an excellent track record here at The Byron Nelson and that could be related to their ability to play in the wind. The Arnold Palmer Invitational winner has missed the cut here in the last two seasons but prior to that, Leishman has three Top 10's and two Top 15's in six tries.
Byeong Hun An (+5500 5Dimes) This is An's first visit to The Byron Nelson but his length off of the tee and strong tee to green game ought to fare well this week. He has only missed one cut all year and that was in the team play event at The Zurich Classic. An was 33rd at The Masters and 8th in his last start at The Wells Fargo Championship.
The Pick
Dustin Johnson (+5.560 Pinnacle) I find it very hard to not pick Dustin Johnson here this week. His track record is spectacular, having never missed a cut in seven tries and in those seven visits, he's recorded four Top 10 finishes and two Top 20's. The difficult part is placing a wager at such a short price but he's number one on Tour in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, number one in Greens in Regulation, and 2nd in Par 4 Scoring. Coming off of a personal best 12th place finish at The PLAYERS last week tells me there are no lingering problems with his back injury from The Masters. If he starts playing like he did before The Masters, which it appears that he is awful close, DJ may win this week wire to wire. Trying to find another player in this field who could win at a more attractive price, feels like I'm trying to outthink the room. Johnson feels like the obvious may be staring us right in the face.