Barcelona vs Real Madrid Odds and Pick
By Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
As they are whenever these two sides meet, the stakes are high ahead of Sunday's Clasico at the Camp Nou (4 p.m. ET, beIN Sports).
Barcelona know that a victory would put them a potentially decisive four points clear of Madrid in the La Liga title race, while success for Los Blancos would send them back top of the table and put them right back on track after a difficult couple of weeks.
A draw would mean we stay as we are with the two teams separated by just a point at the top of the table, but with Real Madrid having the head-to-head advantage given their 3-1 win over the Catalans at the Bernabeu in October.
That is an important fact to remember because should the two teams finish the season level on points, in Spain it is the head-to-head record used to decide the winner, not goal difference.
There is still a lot of football to be played before anyone wins anything though, and both teams will be fully focused on the small matter of the biggest game in the world.
William Hill U.S. has Barcelona listed as the -155 favorite, with Real Madrid offered at odds of 18-to-5 (+360) and the draw priced at 17-to-5 (+340).
The goal spread has Barcelona -1 goal (+115), with Madrid offered at -135 with the 1-goal cushion.
There are two selections which have come to be absolute bankers in recent Clasicos, with OVER 2.5 goals paying out in 15 of the last 17 meetings, and both teams to score paying out in all 17 games these two sides have contested since Barcelona beat Real Madrid 2-0 in the semifinals of the Champions League in April 2011.
If it is good news that there are two such obvious selections for the game, the bad news is that they are naturally extremely short priced. While the total in Las Vegas is 3.5 goals (OVER +100, UNDER-120), offshore books have OVER 2.5 goals offered at -275 and 'both teams to score' at -250. These prices will exclude most bettors from backing either selection outright although some might be tempted to include either in a parlay.
There is however, a selection which has paid out with pleasing regularity in this fixture and is offered at a healthy even-money, a much more universally appealing option.
OVER 1.5 goals in the first half has paid out in five of the last seven La Liga Clasicos, and the temptation to back it once more is hard to ignore. Both teams know that league Clasicos can often decide the title, therefore with so much at stake they tend to go for it which usually means first-half goals.
Goal.com best bet: OVER 1.15 first-half goals (even-money)