Belmont Stakes Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com
1 – Governor Malibu 12/1 Joel Rosario (1-5) Christophe Clement (1-2)
Notes: From the connections of 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, he ran well when getting the place money in the Peter Pan last out behind undefeated up and comer Unified. In fact, since the addition of Lasix and blinkers he’s been very good. Like all of the others in here, he has distance questions to answer but I see a lot of upside and he has enough early lick to be in the game from the get go. His speed figures have improved in every start and that trend will have to continue if he is to win this. I’m using him in all of my exotic wagers and will save with him in multi-race bets.
2 – Destin 6/1 Javier Castellano (0-9) Todd Pletcher (2-20)
Notes: Tried to win the Kentucky Derby having not run in eight weeks or past 1 1/16 miles. And while he didn’t hit the board, his sixth place finish surprised the hell out of me. With that said, he’s now going to try to go 1 1/2 miles with just one race in 13 weeks. Man, does that sound like a daunting task. Pletcher won this with the filly Rags to Riches in 2007 and again in 2013 with Palace Malice but both were much better racehorses than this guy. Combine the negatives with all of the money he figures to take because of his jock/trainer combo and he’s one I’m certainly trying to beat.
3 - Cherry Wine 8/1 Corey Lanerie (Debut) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: Came flying home through the slop to get second money in the Preakness after getting stuck on the outside looking in when he didn’t have enough points to make the Derby field. The key word in that first sentence may very well be “slop” as this guy’s two best races have arguably now come on off tracks. He’s been highly regarded for a while now and while he did nip Nyquist on the line last out he really had things set up perfectly for him. His rider is making his debut in a race that has been the undoing of better jockeys than him and he really hasn’t ridden much at Belmont, a track that is as different as it gets. I feel like he is just ordinary on a dry track and is another who figures to take money. I’m against him.
4 – Suddenbreakingnews 10/1 Mike Smith (2-17) Donnie Von Hemel (Debut)
Notes: Had some trouble, like a few others, early on in the Derby but, as usual, came with his late rally. The fact that he always comes with that late run is his best quality. Nothing seems to faze him but that traffic trouble that comes with the territory of being a deep closer has probably cost him a few placings in his career. He gets a big rider change to Smith, who won this in 2010 with Drosselmeyer and Palace Malice, along with hundreds of other races over the surface. Would need things to go perfectly to win it and while I don’t think he will I can sure see him grabbing a minor award.
5 – Stradivari 5/1 John Velazquez (2-19) Todd Pletcher (2-20)
Notes: All of the connections teamed up with Rags to Riches and Johnny V. won it again in 2012 with a perfect rail skimming ride aboard Union Rags. They threw this guy to the proverbial wolves after his entry level allowance score by daylight and rewarded Pletcher’s faith with a solid fourth place finish in the Preakness over a track I don’t think he cared for. I don’t believe anyone was happier that these guys when it was announced that former Pletcher runner Gettysburg would be entered in here to set the pace since it looked like he’d be the one on the front end. Now he gets to sit his trip off of the pace. His sire was second in this in 2002 and I have been a fan of this guy from day one. A serious win contender, I’m using him in all of my plays.
6 – Gettysburg 30/1 Paco Lopez (Debut) Steve Asmussen (0-2)
Notes: Speak of the devil and up he appears!! Up jumped a rabbit and here he is!! The question that remains is what type of rabbit will he be? Is he going to come out guns blazing and set the first six furlongs on fire so stablemate Creator can come running late? Or, does he nudge the few others with speed in here through a slower pace and force them to make a mistake and commit too soon? With Paco aboard, who knows?!?! The one thing I know is that he isn’t worth a single dollar of your money.
7 – Seeking the Soul 30/1 Florent Geroux (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-5)
Notes: The king of the classic longshots Dallas Stewart sends this guy out off of a narrow maiden victory in his third start. He’s making his first start around two turns and third start since Derby day. I feel like he’s completely overmatched. Another I’m tossing completely.
8 – Forever d’Oro 30/1 Jose Ortiz (0-1) Dallas Stewart (0-5)
Notes: The king of the classic longshots Dallas Stewart sends this guy out off of a narrow maiden victory in his third start. Yes, I know I said the same thing about Seeking the Soul. This guy at least won at Belmont but his maiden tally was slow. His full sister is running earlier on the card in the Ogden Phipps. She has a better chance to win than this guy does and I don’t like her for a penny. Toss.
9 – Trojan Nation 30/1 Aaron Gryder (Debut) Pat Gallagher (Debut)
Notes: Winless in seven starts, finished sixteenth in the Derby………sure, let’s run in the Belmont!! You have got to be kidding me?!?!?! I wouldn’t bet him in a maiden race.
10 – Lani 20/1 Yutaka Take (Debut) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: The Japanese mystery horse has been getting used to things here in America. He ran okay in the Derby and better than that in the Preakness despite trouble in the start in both. His behavior has gotten much better and he won’t have to deal with the massive crowds he had to contend with in Louisville and Baltimore. Plus, he’s been stabled at Belmont since the Derby and has gotten accustomed to things there. Combine that with the four plus miles he trains every day, his pedigree (sire is Tapit, father of Tonalist/dam is a daughter of Sunday Silence) and all things point to this guy running his best race yet in the U.S. Whether or not it’ll be good enough is what remains to be seen. At 20-1 I’m willing to find out. I think he’s going to run well and can win it. Using him in all of my exotic plays and most of my multi-race wagers.
11 – Exaggerator 9/5 Kent Desormeaux (1-9) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: The Preakness winner confirmed his affinity for wet tracks by bounding home a good thing in the slop at Pimlico. He fell 1 ¼ lengths shy of winning the Derby and packing Belmont full of fans looking for back to back Triple Crown winners. Too bad the brief rain that hit Louisville on Derby day didn’t last longer. Look, he’s a good horse on a dry track but he moves up exponentially on wet tracks. He might be the best wet-track horse I’ve seen. But now he faces the same obstacles all of the other veterans of the Triple Crown trail face as well as some non-racetrack demons his rider, who won this on Summer Bird in 2009, has been forced to deal with. His work this past Tuesday at Belmont left a lot to be desired and simply put I think he is a tired horse. I also am a big believer that horses who make the explosive move that he makes don’t always fire at Belmont. Would I be shocked if he won? Of course not…..he’s one of the most talented horses in the race if not THE most talented. But I think a confluence of factors make this a bad time to bet on him. My gut, which is ample, is telling me he’s going to throw in a clunker. If I’m right, there is a big payday to be had.
12 – Brody's Cause 20/1 Luis Saez (0-1) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: As much as Exaggerator loves wet tracks, this guy might love Keeneland even more. He’s nearly unbeatable in Lexington but nothing more than ordinary elsewhere. I’m really starting to question what he has beaten as well. I was never a fan and that’s not about to change going 12 furlongs.
13 – Creator 10/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-2) Steve Asmussen (0-2)
Notes: If you go back and watch a Derby replay and keep your eyes solely on him you’ll see his day was over before it started. I loved the way he was coming into that race and couldn’t for the life of me figure out why he didn’t fire until I isolated him. We throw around the line “draw a line through that race” a lot in this sport but it’s never been truer than in this instance. He’s by Tapit out of a South American bred mare, so he should run all day. He has a rabbit to insure a hot/contested/hotly contested pace. He gets a positive rider change to one of the best in the biz who just so happens to call NY his home on a year round basis. His running style is always a concern since he comes from so far back but you can say that about a number of horses in here. I’m taking my chances and making him my pick to win!!!
At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
There is no Triple Crown bid, but Belmont Stakes Day is going to be a good one, with 10 stakes on the 13-race card that kicks off at 11:35am ET.
Exaggerator is going to be the short priced favorite in the Belmont, but he faces a dozen foes including five that he beat in the Kentucky Derby and sat on the sidelines for the Preakness and will be coming into the Big Apple fresh and ready to go.
The Keith Desormeaux trainee was installed as the 9-5 morning line favorite but figures to be sent off closer to 7-5 or maybe even as low as 6-5. His current price at Sportsbook.ag in early wagering is 20-21.
I can’t take that short a price and I will be playing against him this afternoon.
The New York Racing Association hit one out of the park putting many of their major stakes on the undercard today. There are five supporting Grade 1 races on tap.
The first is the $700,000 Acorn which drew a small field of six three-year-old fillies but it is a solid group missing just Songbird. Cathryn Sophia, winner of the Kentucky Oaks (G1) is the 6-5 morning line favorite.
Among her foes are Black Eyed Susan (G2) winner Go Maggie Go (3-1) and Eight Belles (G2) winner Carina Miss (4-1).
The $1 million Ogden Phipps drew a field of seven fillies and mares that will go a 1 1/16 miles on the main track. It is tough to separate Curalina (3-1), Forever Unbridled (4-1), Stopchargingmaria (7-2) and Cavorting (9-2).
The $700,000 Just a Game is one of the most wide open races on the card, a field of 13 fillies and mares going one mile on the turf. Plenty of Grace Stakes winner Mrs McDougal is the 4-1 morning line favorite.
The $1.25 million Met Mile drew a solid field of 13 led by Pimlico Special (G2) winner Noble Bird (9-2), Charles Town Classic (G2) victor Stanford (5-1), Commonwealth (G3) winner Ami’s Flatter (6-1) and Frosted (7-2), who was fourth in last year’s Kentucky Derby and second in the Belmont Stakes.
The NBC Sports Network picks up the action on Saturday at 3:00 ET and the action shifts to NBC at 5:00.
Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 The Easy Goer
#2 Cupid 3-5
#3 Rally Cry 3-1
#5 Economic Model 7-2
#1 Race Me Home 15-1
Analysis: Cupid makes his first start since fading to finish 10th in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park as the beaten favorite. The colt went into that race as a major Derby contender and had won the Rebel (G2) two back in his stakes debut. He reportedly had a trapped epiglottis and underwent throat surgery and now returns in a modest spot after missing three weeks of training. If he runs back to his Rebel effort he will be very tough here at a puny price.
Rally Cry was a sharp Alw-1 winner last out in fast time and looks like the major threat to the chalk here. His lone stakes try was a fifth in the Gotham (G3) two back. He owns the top last out speed fig and his 95 Beyer matches the chalk's number earned in his Rebel win.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 4-5 or better.
EX: 2 / 3,5
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 The Metropolitan Hcp G1
#8 Ami's Flatter 6-1
#7 Stanford 5-1
#5 Frosted 7-2
#4 Noble Bird 9-2
Analysis: Ami's Flatter tracked the early pace and finished strongly to win the seven-furlong Commonwealth (G3) last out at Keeneland off a two-month break. He bounced back after failing to fire his best two back going a mile in the Fred Hooper (G3) at Gulfstream Park. He comes back here off a two month freshening for the Carroll barn that is 17% winners with runners coming back off a 46-90-day break. He should get a good tracking trip and may end up getting overlooked on the tote in this spot.
Stanford took the field gate to wire over the tight turns at Chuck Town to win the Charles Town Classic (G2) at nine furlongs. Two back at a one turn mile in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) he was a game second, beaten just a head. The Pletcher trainee has back to back career tops but the cut back to a one turn mile should suit. Pletcher has won this race in two of the last editions, Palace Malice in 204 and Quality Road in 2010.
Frosted makes his first start since returning from Dubai where he made two starts, winning the Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2) and then checking in fifth in the Dubai World Cup (G1). The McLaughlin barn is 22% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. His lone try at a one turn mile was his maiden win back in October of '14. He reunited with Rosario who was aboard for his last win in the Pa Derby (G2).
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 4,5,7,8
TRI: 7,8 / 4,5,7,8 / 4,5,7,8,11
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:
MTH Race 11 The Honey Bee
#7 Joya Real 5-2
#5 Sunnysammi 7-2
#1 Forest Funds 7-2
#6 Indian Splendor 3-1
Analysis: Joya Real made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in The Very One behind the very talented Lady Shipman over good ground at Pimlico off a five-month layoff. The mare has now landed in the exacta in 9 of 13 starts on turf and she gets an extra half furlong to run them down here. She has won 3 of her 5 trips over the turf here on the Jersey Shore and will be really tough in this spot.
Sunnysammi took the field gate to wire to beat Alw-2 optional claimers last out at Pimlico going five furlongs. That race went in a fast 56.93 compared to The Very One the next day where the winner stopped the timer in 57.85. The Weaver trainee has won 3 of 6 on turf in her career and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. She will be the one to catch here.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 5,7 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #1 Race Me Home 15-1
R4: #10 Securitiz 8-1
R6: #12 Pure Sensation 15-1
R6: #7 Green Mask 8-1
R7: #3 Dig Deep 8-1
R8: #1 Strike Charmer 8-1
R10: #2 Slumber 10-1
R11: #13 Creator 10-1
R11: #4 Suddenbreakingnews 10-1
R13: #3 Two Weeks Off 8-1
R13: #7 Colonel Sharp 12-1
Belmont Stakes Horse-By-Horse Betting Odds, Preview And Picks
By Monique Vág
Covers.com
With the hopes of a Triple Crown spoiled in the Preakness, Exaggerator enters this Preakness Stakes as the one to beat.
There are only two horses which competed in every leg (Exaggerator and Lani). Completing the field are a few horses which skipped the Preakness to freshen up, as well as four new faces all hoping to outrun their odds and light up the tote board on the second Saturday in June.
Here’s a horse-by-horse betting breakdown for this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes complete with odds:
1. Governor Malibu (Jockey – Joel Rosario, 12-1): He’s certainly a colt showing signs of improvement. Since breaking his maiden last year in November, he’s gone on to compete solely against stakes company. He’s raced over the Belmont surface twice in his career, and I’d consider that his best asset. He’s never raced over a mile and an eighth yet in his career and he may be in for a rude awakening today with the tedious extra furlongs. I think he’ll sit closer than most horses in this race, and I think that if rated well and given the slower early fractions many predict, he could definitely hold off some of the late closing horses.
2. Destin (Javier Castellano, 6-1): I feel he raced well in the Derby. Part of that may be because he looked like he wasn’t ridden as hard in the stretch. He skipped an extra prep before the Derby and was given eight weeks off. That definitely didn’t look like it helped his chances. I think the biggest upside to making an argument for Destin in the Belmont is his pedigree. He’s sired out of Giant’s Causeway and dam Dream of Summer. All signs point to him being able to handle the distance and I think with his best effort in here today, he’s a serious contender.
3. Cherry Wine (Corey J. Lanerie, 8-1): He’s coming off his best race, a second in the Preakness Stakes. He’s a deep closer in here and I cannot find myself favoring him over any of the other horses hoping to run the same race as him. He’s shown an appreciation to the added distance he’s been given career wise. Perhaps he’ll continue to surprise and finish higher than many anticipate. I think he’ll be left with too much work to do in late stretch.
4. Suddenbreakingnews (Mike Smith, 10-1): I think to be given his best shot he’ll have to sit much closer to the pace than he is used to racing. With that being said, I think the jockey change to Mike Smith could help him a lot. I think he also drew perfectly. His post is pretty ideal to work out a nice ground saving trip and it will be up to Smith to choose where he’ll be positioned. I think if he’s sitting in the second pack of runners, he’ll be given every opportunity to make a big move and show off the late closing kick we’ve seen before.
5. Stradivari (John Velazquez, 5-1): He took the biggest jump of his career last time out and showed ability to compete against the nation’s top three-year-olds. He certainly ran well enough to be given another opportunity in the Belmont. My problem with him is the morning line odds. His opening odds are a little aggressive for me. Sure, he had a good race in the Preakness, but he’s only beaten allowance horses before. He definitely has a promising pedigree and I do believe he’ll take to the distance well. I can’t back him at these low odds.
6. Gettysburg (Paco Lopez, 30-1): He’ll be the likely pacesetter today. Here’s something to potentially take note of: he’s owned by WinStar Farm. These connections also own Creator and hold the breeding rights to Preakness winner Exaggerator. Both of these are entered in here today and fit the racing style of closers. I wouldn’t be surprised Gettysburg really pushes the pace early on. I’d be shocked if he hangs on for a piece late.
7. Seeking the Soul (Florent Geroux, 30-1): I think connections were hoping the rival directly to his inside wouldn’t be entered, so he could set the pace and hope for a miracle upfront to hold on. With that being said, he hasn’t shown anything. The best part of him is the connections which have had some success with some long shots finishing second in pretty recent history: (Commanding Curve (38-1) in the Derby, and Tale of Verve (25-1) in the Preakness.
8. Forever d’Oro (Jose Ortiz, 30-1): Here’s another long shot trained by Dallas Stewart like the one directly to his inside. This colt has three races and is coming off the best in his career - a win against maiden company. He’ll be racing off less than two weeks rest. He'll be going twelve furlongs after narrowly breaking his maiden at eight and a half. He hasn’t faced horses with wins in their career yet, let alone wins of the graded stakes caliber.
9. Trojan Nation (Aaron Gryder, 30-1): Given the addition of Gettysburg to the mix, the pace scenario may play out better for closers than initially anticipated. At the end of the day, he’ll really need to show huge signs of improvement. He was a disappointing sixteenth in the Derby and has still never won a career race. Today won’t be the day. I must give credit where credit is due though; his sire has given us some of the greats like Street Sense, and Zenyatta. I thank him for that.
10. Lani (Yutaka Take, 20-1): This race best suits his pedigree. He’s bred thoroughly to love any added distance, the longer the better. Connections aren’t shy to say how excited they are with how Lani is taking to the Belmont surface and how comfortable he’s looked training recently. He’ll excel at this distance and I think his morning line odds are completely off. He’s definitely an overlay and a must include in the bottom half of your exotic wagers.
11. Exaggerator (Kent Desormeaux, 9-5): There’s no way he’ll be anywhere near his odds leading up to the Belmont Stakes, let alone at post time. He’s certainly a deserving favorite and clearly the one to beat. He wanted more pace in the Derby, got a little bit more in the Preakness, and now it looks like he’ll get way more of a faster pace upfront in the Belmont today. That only adds to his appeal in my opinion.
12. Brody’s Cause (Luis Saez, 20-1): He likes to make up ground in the stretch. I think his late run style will be an asset in here today. His Derby line is deceptively good, where he travelled his last quarter in 25.57; the third fastest in the race. He definitely has the pedigree to handle a mile and a half today. After skipping the Preakness I believe him to be fresh and sitting on a big effort. 20-1 are very generous odds. At that price I’ll be backing him across the board.
13. Creator (Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1): He was definitely one of the biggest disappointments in the Derby finishing thirteenth. With that being said, I do think he has a good shot in here today. The field is much softer than the one he faced in the Derby and the most likely scenario of early speed suits his run style. He gets a jockey change to Irad Ortiz which I think is a brilliant choice. Ortiz has excelled at Belmont over the past couple of years and with the Belmont being much more of a rider’s race, this change will probably only help. He’ll be coming from the clouds and will rely on pace. He might just get it exactly how he wants.
Selections: 1. Suddenbreakingnews 2. Brody’s Cause 3. Exaggerator 4. Lani