Belmont Stakes Betting News and Notes

Belmont Stakes Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

1 - Twisted Tom 20-1 Javier Castellano (0-10) Chad Brown (0-1)

He’s won all three dirt starts since Brown switched him back after a pair of turf starts. He’s also perfect in all three of his starts with blinkers and around two turns. And apparently, according to some people I truly respect, there is a TON of distance producing mares on his dam side. These guys teamed up to win the Preakness with Cloud Computing, he’s consistent and will likely be a big price on the tote board. I’ll use him in all of my exotic wagers and in a saver pick 4 ticket or two.

2 - Tapwrit 6/1 Jose Ortiz (0-2) Todd Pletcher (2-22)

He was the first horse bothered when Irish War Cry made a left hand turn coming out of the gate, costing him some position early. He encountered a couple of traffic jams as he made his way through the pack then stayed on through the stretch as his stablemate Always Dreaming splashed home to take the roses. I know he was on the inside part of the track through the stretch, which is where you wanted to be, but he was running on and not losing any ground. I don’t think it mattered where he was. His sire Tapit has won two of the last three Belmonts with Tonalist in 2014, Creator last year and his Frosted was second to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015. And while I have mocked Pletcher’s Derby record for years, he’s won two of these and finished second four times, including narrow defeats with Commissioner and Destin. I think he’ll be closer than usual, make his run on the far turn and win the 2017 Belmont Stakes!!!

3 - Gormley 8/1 Victor Espinoza (1-5) John Shirreffs (0-2)

Was able to avoid the traffic trouble at the start of the Derby when breaking from post 18 and actually worked out a decent enough trip from that draw. He was just about five lengths off the early lead and ranged up like he was going to do some damage before flattening out off the turn. He’s a multiple G1 winner, just one of two in the field along with Classic Empire, but his wins have been on the slow side and he’s not really bred for the distance. Pass

4 - J Boys Echo 15/1 Robby Albarado (0-5) Dale Romans (0-8 )

He beat eventual Preakness winner handily in the Gotham, one of the fastest Derby preps of the season but came back to do little running in the Blue Grass and even less in the Derby. I know people are saying he had some trouble at the start of the Derby but I thought others had it much worse. The more he steps on the track, the more it looks like the Gotham was the exception and not the rule when it comes to his form. Pass.

5 - Hollywood Handsome 30/1 Florent Geroux (0-1) Dallas Stewart (0-7)

t took him five starts to break his maiden, then four more to take down the entry level allowance condition. He was an also-ran in his two graded stakes tries and his trainer hemmed and hawed as to whether or not he’d run before finally deciding earlier this week. An easy toss when you add in his middle-distance pedigree.

6 - Lookin At Lee 5/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (1-3) Steve Asmussen (1-4)

Look, I’ve always been a fan of this horse and spent the better part of the past four months making excuses for him. Bottom line is he is winless in all eight of his starts at two turns. EIGHT. He levels off at the same point of all his races, not a great sign when you consider he has to negotiate an extra quarter of a mile in here. This trainer/jockey combo teamed up just last year to win this with Creator, something that won’t be lost on the bettors. Deep closers tend not to win this race, especially ones that probably don’t want anything to do with the trip. Sorry, pal….not this time.

7 - Irish War Cry 7/2 Rajiv Maragh (0-4) Graham Motion (0-3)

Will the real Irish War Cry please stand up? The “good” IWC, the won that won the Holy Bull and Wood Memorial deserves to be the morning line favorite. The “bad” one, the one from the Fountain of Youth and Kentucky Derby, doesn’t. He was one of the front runners that didn’t survive in Louisville on a track that favored speed, which is not a good sign at all. His sire Curlin duked it out with Rags to Riches 10 years ago and wound up on the wrong end of a photo finish in this event. Plus, Motion didn’t decide this was a go until Sunday. Ultimately I don’t think he’s going to handle the distance, especially with some company on the front end.

8 - Senior Investment 12/1 Channing Hill (Debut) Ken McPeek (1-6)

He’s made up copious amounts of ground in his last two, a win in the Lexington and to grab the show dough in the Preakness, but he’s soooo far back in the early running. Those types hardly win this. And I’m not too sure he has enough gas early to be kept closer by hill. I think he’s a one trick pony when his running style is concerned. He’s also gotta come back in just three weeks off of a career best effort. Not for me.

9 - Meantime 15/1 Mike Smith (2-18) Brian Lynch (Debut)

Son of 2011 Preakness winner Shackleford should be the speed of the speed in here under his Hall of Fame pilot. Broke his maiden in mud two starts back, his lone start around two turns, before setting the pace and settling for second in the Peter Pan last out behind a sophomore with a BIG future from the Chad Brown barn, Timeline. If I thought he’d get loose on the lead, I’d consider him for a minor award. But after the draw I have to think he’s going to be surrounded early on. I’ll pass.

10 - Multiplier 15/1 Joel Rosario (1-6) Brendan Walsh (Debut)

Despite his middle distance pedigree, he’s raced exclusively around two turns his entire five race career. He closed nicely to win the Illinois Derby two back before finding some trouble in the Preakness in deep stretch. Was one of four that hit the line within a length of each other for third but unfortunately for his connections he finished sixth. He’s gained ground in every single one of his starts and going this distance that’s a good thing. I’m just having a really tough time getting past his breeding. I’ll use him in my exotic plays at a price.

11 - Epicharis 4/1 Christophe Lemaire (Debut) Kiyoshi Hagiwara (Debut)

Connections passed on a Derby run despite being eligible via his win in the Hyacinth in his native Japan back in February. He was second to Thunder Snow in the U.A.E. Derby last out some 10 weeks ago when he was last seen. So, he has to go 12 furlongs off of a two and a half month break after travelling halfway around the world. There has also been a confirmed report that he was treated for possible lameness in his right front hoof. Seems like an awful lot for him to handle. I’ll use him protectively in my exotics because I’m not sure how good he is and not thrilled with most of the others in here.

12 - Patch 12/1 John Velazquez (2-20) Todd Pletcher (2-22)

The one-eyed wonder took a ton of casual/sentimental money in the Derby and will probably do that same in here. BUT….he’s by 2012 Belmont winner Union Rags and out of a mare sired by 1992 Belmont victor A.P. Indy so the pedigree is there. He gets the services of Hall of Famer Johnny V in the saddle. He didn’t get into a lot of trouble in the Derby. I believe he didn’t handle the off track. I think he’s going to run very well. Using him in all of my gimmicks and some multi-race exotics.

Belmont Stakes Preview and Picks
By: Todd Fuhrman
Bettheboard.com

No Kentucky Derby winner? No Preakness winner? Not even the 2-year old champ? No problem. The 2017 Belmont Stakes might be lacking star power but it definitely does not lack betting appeal. Twelve sophomores will go to the post in a wide-open affair, traversing Belmont’s famous mile-and-a-half oval, traveling a farther distance than they ever have and likely ever will. Here’s my look at this year’s field:

1 – Twisted Tom – Intriguing longshot from the barn of Preakness-winning trainer Chad Brown. This guy is undefeated in 2017 since joining the Brown camp. Captured the Federico Tesio at Laurel in April, typically a Preakness prep, but Brown has been aiming for this one all along. Last two wins have been via a powerful closing kick; if he doesn’t leave himself too much to do, he should be doing some strong running late. And the breeding? His dam is by a Belmont winner, his second dam is by a Belmont winner, his third dam is by a Belmont winner, and his fourth dam is by the sire of a Belmont winner. Solid longshot selection.

2 – Tapwrit – Impressive winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, but beaten by double-digit lengths last two out. Still, his 6th place finish in the Kentucky Derby was much better visually than on paper and he was one of the few still moving forward at the race’s end. Pletcher’s barn has had success with the Derby to Belmont angle in past with a winner in Palace Malice and another strong finisher in Destin. He’s been training very nicely for this one, and the two-hole should give him the opportunity to save some ground without getting too far out of the mix. Pletcher’s success in this race cannot be ignored and he is one of my top win candidates. Watch the toteboard for proper value in either direction come race day.

3 – Gormley – Wasn’t a big fan of his prior to the Derby, but his win in the Santa Anita Derby does look a bit better now than it did then. His 9th place Derby finish was as troubled as any horse in the field, and was probably better than it looked. Still, I’m not convinced he’s much of a threat here and the single-digit odds that accompany this pony do not interest me in the least.

4 – J Boys Echo – Big chance at a big price. Gets a major jockey upgrade with Albarado back healthy as the number one call for trainer Dale Romans. Owns the best Beyer of anyone in the field earned in an impressive win in the Gotham Stakes, beating Preakness winner Cloud Computing by 3 1/2 lengths. He was pretty terrible in the Derby, beaten by 23 lengths, but I think it might be fair to draw a line through that one as perhaps he simply didn’t care for the wet track and mud in his face. If he maintains a middle-of-the-pack placement through the race’s first mile, he could be in prime position to grab a share of this one. Lots to like here at an advantageous number.

5 – Hollywood Handsome – There is no doubt trainer Dallas Stewart can get horses on the board in Triple Crown races at big prices — see Macho Again, Golden Soul, Commanding Curve, and Tale of Verve all as examples of his handiwork. That said, I’m not expecting him to follow suit with this colt. The breeding looks like a major red flag and his plodding one-run closer style is likely to be ineffective, especially when there are similar types that do it better. Pass.

6 – Lookin At Lee – He’s been a model of consistency this spring with no reason to think he won’t give another honest effort in this one. Still, it’s important to note that he’s still 0 for 8 in graded stakes attempts and this is his third race in five weeks. His one-run style has proved successful in crashing exotics, but not so successful in finding the winner’s circle. Expect more of the same on Saturday.

7 – Irish War Cry – He’s the morning-line favorite, and appears to be deserving of that accolade. Faltered in the Derby as one of the favorites and lacked any serious punch in the lane despite looming large entering the stretch. He certainly seems to possess the best back-class of the field and he’s probably the fastest horse among these. Additionally, he’s going to have as much to say about the pace this race is run at as any. It’s won’t surprise anyone if he wins this race in wire-to-wire fashion. Still, in a race that looks like it will provide a ton of value, he’s probably going to close with the shortest-price in the field. He’s likely going to have to be at least 4-1 before I show much interest.

8 – Senior Investment – His Preakness move from 7th to 3rd in the last 100 yards was pretty striking. That said, as with his Lexington Stakes win, he benefited from relatively fast fractions, and a solid pace to close into. He may not get that in the Belmont. There’s no doubt in my mind that this guy is improving, and he may be getting good at the right time. Still, I can’t help but think that the time to play him was at 31-1 in the Preakness; his odds in this one won’t sniff half that.

9 – Meantime – Impressive in breaking his maiden at Keeneland, which he followed with a runner-up in the Peter Pan over this track. He set the pace in that race, but did appeared to tire. I suppose a case could be made for him if he makes a solo lead, and lulls the field to sleep, but that’s a scenario I don’t see happening. Looks like a pace factor that is unlikely to be around at the finish.

10 – Multiplier – Illinois Derby winner left himself too much to do in Preakness, but did gain some ground in stretch, losing a photo for 4th. He can be a factor with a total pace collapse, but I think he’s probably a cut below the majority of these and the breeding appears to be a negative factor to boot. Use in deeper exotic tickets perhaps, but is mostly a toss for me.

11 – Epicharis – Japanese invader has done little wrong in his career so far going undefeated in his homeland before a second-place finish in the UAE Derby. Belmont was the race his connections have pointed for all along, and the breeding (Sunday Silence is his grandpa) suggests the 1 1/2 mile distance won’t be a problem. He’s an enigma definitely, and things got further complicated when Classic Empire dropped out and shortened his odds from 8-1 to a 4-1 morning line. He could turn out to be a superstar, but shipping over has not yet been a recipe for success in Triple Crown races, and at a price that seems lower than it should be I am inclined to let him beat me in this one.

12 – Patch – The other Pletcher entry which follows the Derby to Belmont path is an angle that should be applied to him as well. That said, I don’t think he’s as talented as his stablemate Tapwrit, and, by all accounts was clearly outpaced when they worked in tandem during a five-furlong breeze on June 2nd over the Belmont track. As with the Derby, he draws the outside post and while the 12 hole in the Belmont isn’t as much of a death sentence as the 20 hole in the Derby, it’s still not a positive angle. Taking a stand against.

How They’ll Finish: I think if Irish War Cry runs his race and controls the pace he is the most likely candidate for winning. However, as noted above he seems to offer the least value of anyone in the race with the possible exception of Epicharis. As such, I will try to beat him with Tapwrit and J Boys Echo, with the latter potentially offering a nice-sized payday. Accordingly, I will make him my top selection. I will be boxing these five horses below in exactas and trifectas:

1) J Boys Echo
2) Tapwrit
3) Irish War Cry
4) Lookin At Lee
5) Twisted Tom

Belmont Stakes Horse-By-Horse Preview and Picks
By: Monique Vág
Covers.com

This year’s third jewel in the Triple Crown series – the Belmont Stakes - features many new faces and only one horse which has participated in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. If you thought the Kentucky Derby was wide open, then you’re in for quite the shock as there seems to be even less that separates this field.

Here’s a horse-by-horse breakdown for this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes:

1. Twisted Tom (Jockey – Javier Castellano, 20-1): This gelding is entering off three straight wins, but he will be trying his luck against graded stakes company for the first time in his career and that’s a notable jump in class. Looking through his past performance lines, he will be closer to the pace and attempt to work out a stalking trip. He’s a couple seconds slow and overmatched.

2. Tapwrit (Jose Ortiz, 6-1): He was a non factor in both of his last two starts, the Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby, but may improve today with the added distance and time off. His trip in the Derby was horrendous, but he may work out a nice run at the Belmont, sitting mid pack or a little bit closer than most of the other closing types. The price may be too short.

3. Gormley (Victor Espinoza, 8-1): Another in here who tried his luck in the Kentucky Derby but chose to skip the Preakness. It’s definitely a good thing to see him bounce back in the next start historically after some pretty poor efforts. He’s certainly a wildcard but could possess some serious distance limitations. He’s better suited racing substantially shorter. The price is far too short for a horse with numerous declining speed figures from his last good effort in the Sham in January.

4. J Boys Echo (Robbie Albarado, 15-1): The Gotham three starts back was certainly his shining moment but he hasn’t shown much since then. He was as non-factor in the Kentucky Derby but may appreciate skipping out on the Preakness and allowing for some time off. He has been flying under the radar and warrants a closer look.

5. Hollywood Handsome (Florent Geroux, 30-1): It took this colt five starts to break his maiden and he hasn’t proven that he’s able to beat any horses of real quality. He’ll be hoping for the pace to fall apart in front of him and, although I don’t think that will necessarily be the case, I do think he’s capable of passing some horses late and may be a potential include on the bottom of your trifecta/superfecta tickets.

6. Lookin At Lee (Irad Ortiz Jr., 5-1): His racing style tends to fall into dropping back many lengths off the pace, and hoping for there to be fast fractions upfront – like many others. This colt deserves some credit for always firing and continually putting forth honest efforts. He’s been close twice, although I do think riding the rail over the Derby was the place to be. He looks to be another with ML odds which seem to be far too low to take a shot on a horse that is pace dependent and will be coming from the clouds.

7. Irish War Cry (Rajiv Miragh, 7-2): His Wood Memorial effort two starts back was an impressive one, winning by three and a half lengths over Preakness winner Cloud Computing. In all honestly, he’ll need an effort like that if he wants to win the Belmont Stakes. His Kentucky Derby effort, on the other hand, was very disappointing. It’s possible he didn’t take well to the sloppy track and to 10 furlongs. I definitely have my questions and concerns, but with Classic Empire out, he’s certainly deserving of favorite status.

8. Senior Investment (Channing Hill, 12-1): He has a very similar racing style as the other closer, Lookin At Lee, taking back and making a late run. His Preakness effort was solid. He was as many as 13 lengths back early and closed well enough to pick up a third-place effort. He’ll need a fast pace upfront like many others. The upside to him is definitely the price. He’s incredibly similar to Lookin At Lee but at double the odds. He’s another live trifecta pick.

9. Meantime (Mike Smith, 15-1): Surprisingly he’s the only one in the field which has ran over the Belmont track before and that’s definitely an asset. He’s only had one start against graded stakes company and it wasn’t anything to write home about. Is he a one-way speed horse? Probably. Will he have an uncontested lead today? Probably not. But being forwardly placed in the Belmont Stakes has historically been a favorable place to be.

10. Multiplier (Joel Rosario, 15-1): Another closing type that won’t get the pace he desperately hopes for upfront. He’ll try blinkers for the first time in the Belmont and that equipment change is the worst. Perhaps he’ll break a little bit closer to the pace and not have far too many lengths to make up and too much work left at the end like he did in the Preakness. He likely won’t excel at 12 furlongs and looks to be another one where his pedigree doesn’t scream “distance”, nor do his efforts traveling longer.

11. Epicharis (Christophe Lemaire, 4-1): It took long enough to see an import horse in this year’s Triple Crown legs that legitimately stamps themselves as a contender. He’s been a very short favorite in all five of his career starts and he’s definitely lived up to those odds. I love his versatility and he’s shown that he can win from the front end or come from off the pace. Pedigree wise, he’s no joke. Sunday Silence as a sire is always appealing. Distance wise, he will take well to it. How will he take to traveling thousands of miles, and how sharp will he be after almost two months off?

12. Patch (John Velazquez, 12-1): He’s capable of taking to the distance. I wouldn’t say 12 furlongs is ideal, but pedigree wise he will handle it. It’s tough to dismiss a Kentucky Derby performance entirely, but he was never a factor. That was partly due to drawing the far outside post and an all-around poor trip at Churchill Downs. I like that he skipped the Preakness and, pending a good break, he will surely be very close to the front. He’s capable of hitting the board at a nice price.

Picks: 1. Epicharis 2. Irish War Cry 3. Patch 4. Senior Investment

Three Live Long-Shot Picks That Could Win The Belmont Stakes
By: Monique Vág
Covers.com

The Belmont Stakes is arguably the most difficult of the three legs of horse racing’s Triple Crown, not only due to the tricky nature of “Big Sandy” but the 1½-mile distance and the short turnaround between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

Luckily for many entered in the field, this year’s Belmont Stakes marks the debut of plenty of new and fresher horses looking to capture a jewel in the prestigious Triple Crown series.

Here are three long shots which may outrun their horse racing odds in the Belmont Stakes:

12. Patch (John Velazquez, 12/1)

Unfortunately, once again he drew the far outside post. However, this time it isn’t the biggest deal due to the extra furlongs of the Belmont Stakes being a little bit more lenient on a not so ideal break. Examining his effort in the Kentucky Derby, there’s no denying he had a troubled trip and that likely contributed to never playing a factor.

Pedigree wise, his sire Union Rags won the Belmont and this is his first crop hoping to accomplish the same feat.

With a clean break, he will work out a very nice trip sitting just off the pace of the speed horses. He’s one of a few in here which will almost surely take well to the added distance and may be sitting on a big effort.

The Belmont Stakes wraps up horse racing's Triple Crown this Saturday, and while there's no contender for the Triple Crown this year, it is still one of the biggest races of the summer. We talk to Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, about the Belmont odds, favorites to run up front, and his favorite live long shot picks.

4. J Boys Echo (Robbie Albarado, 15/1)

With many concerns for how these horses will take to the grueling 12-furlong distance, this is one colt - pedigree-wise – that makes me feel confident.

The stamina should be there and if he races anything like his run in the Gotham, he will be a serious contender. Boasting a 102 Beyer figure and defeating Preakness winner Cloud Computing like he did in the aforementioned race is certainly impressive.

His Kentucky Derby effort was poor, but after a problematic break from the gate and continued trouble throughout the race, it’s tough to really do anything but cross a line through that race and examine his whole body of work. He has done well enough to warrant some consideration at a nice price throughout the graded stakes ranks.

8. Senior Investment (Channing Hill, 12/1)

It’s nice to see this colt improving from race to race and his recent efforts within the graded stakes ranks. He’s one of many closers entered in the Belmont, but it looks like this one doesn’t need to spot the field that many lengths like some of the others seem to.

He broke a couple steps slow in the Preakness, but he tends to run his particular race around the final turn. It’s impressive how much ground he did make up on the field late.

Seeing horses look like they want to stretch out longer and finally having the opportunity to do so can often produce some big efforts. The price will be right and he’s certainly capable of hitting the board.

Breakdown of Saturday's Belmont Stakes
By Fred Faour

Saturday’s Belmont Stakes lacks any real intrigue this year, with both the Derby and Preakness winners skipping the race. In essence, it is just another big race this year. Still, the good news is there is a big field, there will be big pools and lots of money to be made if you can sort it out.

Irish War Cry will be the favorite, and deservedly so. At his best he can be outstanding. But he also has some puzzling losses, including the Derby, where he simply did not show up. He should perform better today, but it also would not be a shock if he struggled and some long shots show up. The Belmont is a difficult race; at 1½ miles it is longer than these horses have ever run or will likely run again. The Belmont is usually won by the horse who can best handle the distance. It is more guesswork than most of the races, but there are some angles that work. Stamina breeding is very important, so you will see plenty of references.

Horses that ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness — like Irish War Cry — tend to do well. Our bets will center on three long shots — Tapwrit, J Boys Echo and Senior Investment. Exactas will be the prime plays, but we will also have some trifectas and pick threes and pick fours.

Here we have a complete breakdown of each horse, some key notes and potential plays.

BREAKDOWN OF THE FIELD

No. 1 TWISTED TOM

Odds: 20-1

Race record: 6 races, 4 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds.

Jockey: J.J. Castellano.

Trainer: Chad Brown.

Why he can win: The horse has won three straight, and Brown pulled off a huge upset with Cloud Computing in the Preakness. It was an amazing training job and he should have this one ready to run as well.

Why he can’t: He has been facing lesser lights, has not raced since mid-April and really does not have the breeding to go this far. But Brown has been a magician — especially in New York — and it’s hard to throw him out.

No. 2 TAPWRIT

Odds: 6-1.

Race record: 7-3-1-0..

Jockey: .Jose Ortiz.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

Why he can win: .He has legitimate excuses for his last two races, and was an absolute machine before that. His sixth in the Derby was better than it looked, and his running style should put him in the hunt.

Why he can’t: There really is not one. His best efforts make him a contender, and he has a big shot here. Should get a nice tracking trip behind the speed and the only real question — as it is with all of these — is can he handle the distance?

No. 3 GORMLEY

Odds: 8-1.

Race record: 7-4-0-0.

Jockey: Victor Espinoza.

Trainer: John Shirrefs.

Why he can win: He likes to finish first, and he is a win or nothing type. He has two Grade I victories, which makes him the most accomplished runner in the field..Shirrefs is a terrific trainer.

Why he can’t: .He folded bigtime in the Derby after winning a weak Santa Anita Derby. Did most of his best work as a 2-year-old. Hard to dismiss with his record but might be a use on top or not at all kind of horse.

No. 4 J BOYS ECHO

Odds: 15-1.

Race record: 7-2-1-1.

Jockey: Robby Albarado..

Trainer: Dale Romans.

Why he can win: Like Tapwrit, he has excuses for the Blue Grass and Derby, and he has a win over Preakness winner Cloud Computing in the Gotham. His 102 Beyer in that race is tops in the field, and a repeat puts him right there.

Why he can’t: Like Tapwrit he should have a legitimate shot here, and the 15-1 price isenticing. Breeding is good enough and he could easily surprise.

No. 5 HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME

Odds: 30-1.

Race record: 9-2-0-3.

Jockey: Florent Geroux.

Trainer: Dallas Stewart.

Why he can win: .He seems to be on the improve, and might move up enough to make an impact.

Why he can’t: .He has not run a race fast enough to be competitive, and his breeding does not really scream 1½ miles. Probably a fringe player at best.

No. 6 LOOKIN AT LEE

Odds: 5-1.

Race record: 11-2-3-2.

Jockey: Corey Lanerie.

Trainer: Steve Asmussen.

Why he can win: Have liked this horse since last year. He always seems to fire and his second in the Derby was huge.

Why he can’t: .He rarely does actually win. He will also be the only horse to compete in all three Triple Crown races, and he had to run hard in the prior two. Might be a bit over the top at this stage. Still worth using but not as in love with him in this spot.

No. 7 IRISH WAR CRY

Odds: 7-2.

Race record: 6-4-0-0.

Jockey: Rajiv Maraugh.

Trainer: Graham Motion.

Why he can win: .He will be favored, and he has put up some excellent efforts. But he has also thrown in some serious clunkers when under pressure. Like Gormley, he likely either wins or does not show up at all.

Why he can’t: His impressive wins are easy to poke holes in, and he is not all that consistent. Will have to use him, but won’t fault anyone for tossing him, either.

No. 8 SENIOR INVESTMENT

Odds: 12-1.

Race record: 9-3-0-2.

Jockey: Channing Hill.

Trainer: .Kenneth McPeek.

Why he can win: He has been improving steadily, and his third in the Preakness was solid. He should like the added distance and will be a real threat..

Why he can’t: Plodders don’t often win the Belmont despite the long distance. Should get enough pace to run at, but might be more likely to run second or third. Still, should be a serious factor.

No. 9 MEANTIME

Odds: 15-1.

Race record: 4-1-2-1.

Jockey: Mike Smith.

Trainer: Bryan Lynch.

Why he can win: Should be the pacesetter, and his prep for this was a solid second. Horses near the lead often do well in the Belmont, but winning wire to wire is rare.

Why he can’t: His last two starts have come in the slop, and it looks like nice weather Saturday. His breeding suggests he won’t get this far. There should be enough speed in here to keep him company early. Still, an intriguing long shot.

No. 10 MULTIPLIER

Odds: 15-1.

Race record: 5-2-1-1.

Jockey: Joel Rosario.

Trainer: Brendan Walsh.

Why he can win: He adds blinkers, and was not all that bad in the Preakness..

Why he can’t: Just does not seem to be fast enough, and his breeding screams sprinter.

No. 11 EPICHARIS

Odds: 4-1.

Race record: 5-4-1-0.

Jockey: CP Lemaire.

Trainer: Kiyoshi Hagiwara.

Why he can win: He is a nose away from being undefeated, losing to Thunder Snow in Dubai. His races in Japan were strong, and the quality of horses over there is outstanding. Another with good early speed, but will it translate to the U.S.?

Why he can’t: It’s a lot to ask to win at a mile and a half after coming from overseas. Should be a serious contender, but another with question marks.

No. 12 PATCH

Odds: 12-1.

Race record: 4-1-2-0.

Jockey: John Velazquez.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

Why he can win: The popular one-eyed horse has talent, and like most of the horses that ran into trouble in the Derby, you can throw that race out. Should handle the distance just fine and has every right to improve.

Why he can’t: .He simply has not run a race good enough yet. He has just a maiden win to his credit, and his second in the Louisiana Derby is his most impressive feat, and it just was not that strong of a race. The outside post does not help.

THE UNDERCARD

There are some seriously good races on the undercard. Race 4 should be very competitive. Oaks winner Abel Talsman will take all the money, but Salty is worth a play.

In race 5, Songbird returns, and she will be a heavy favorite. It might be worth playing Highway Star to beat her, and playing exactas with Songbird on top of Highway Star in case Songbird does win.

Race 8 starts the pick 4. I am looking at the 1, 2 and 7.

The 9th is the Met Mile, and the 1-5-8-9-12 are the horses I am looking at. No. 1 Inside Straight is a very interesting long shot and is worth playing at 15-1.

Race 10 is wide open, but will be playing the European No. 6 Potemkin at a solid price.

NOTES

1–The Belmont is the longest of the Triple Crown races at 1½ miles. Most likely none of these horses will ever run this far again.

2–Sarava is the longest-priced Belmont winner at 70.5-1 in 2002. His trainer is represented by Senior Investment.

3–In the last 25 years, just five favorites have won. Of the past 25 winners, 12 have left the gate at double digit odds. Irish War Cry is the morning-line favorite, but Epicharis might go off favored at post time.

4–Only three horses since 2000 have competed in all three races and won the Belmont. Lookin at Lee is the only horse this year to run all three.

5–Only one of the last eight Belmont winners ran in the Preakness — American Pharoah in 2015. Only four of the past 18 winners ran in the Preakness.

6–Nine of the last seventeen winners ran in the Derby or Kentucky Oaks and skipped the Preakness. There are five Derby horses who skipped the Preakness this year. There were five last year, and two of them ran 1-2.

7–Of the last 31 runnings, only three have been won in wire to wire fashion.

8–Tapit has sired two of the last three Belmont winners. (Tapwrit).

9–Sire Curlin has had a runner finish in the money in at least one Triple Crown race each year since his debut crop of 3-year-olds was eligible, and Irish War Cry is his only hope of continuing that streak this year.

10–Four horses will be making their Triple Crown debut in the Belmont — Epicharis, Hollywood Handsome, Meantime, and Twisted Tom.

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com

We have no Triple Crown hanging in the balance, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners are no shows and the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes (G1) lost its early betting favorite.

Ah, who cares right?

In addition to the Belmont Stakes, there are nine supporting stakes on an outstanding 13-race card and five are Grade 1 races.

The New York Racing Association has consolidated all the major stakes into one blockbuster day, and it has really worked out, particularly if the excitement of a Triple Crown is not hanging in the balance.

Sure, television ratings will likely be down, but horseplayers know good opportunities when they see them, and there are plenty this afternoon.

As an added treat, we get to see the brilliant filly Songbird back in action, although as the 1-2 morning line favorite of the $750,000 Ogden Phipps (G1), it’s not much of a betting race.

The filly won her first 11 career starts including seven Grade 1 races, and suffered her first defeat in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) where she was beaten a nose by Beholder.

Despite the loss she earned a career top speed fig and I am anxious to see what this gal can do this year as a four-year-old.

As for the Belmont Stakes it looks like game on for second choice Epicharis, who came down with a front foot issue on Wednesday and seemed like he could be a scratch.

We as horseplayers must decide what affect his minor foot issue is going to have on him as he attempts to go 1 ½ miles in his first start since March.

If this was a claiming race chances are we would never had known there was an issue, but a classic race is under the microscope, and backing him at the window could be tough.

However, sometimes these minor foot issues have a way of working themselves out overnight, and he could be 100% by post time on Saturday.

Post time for the Belmont Stakes is 6:37 ET, the 11th of 13 races on today’s Belmont Park card.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.

Now would be a good time to get my Monthly Package, which includes an entire month of Belmont Park action, my Best Plays Report each weekend and my Belmont Stakes Day Report.

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Alw $90,000N1X (11:35 ET)
#3 Nigel's Destiny 4-1
#5 Tathqeef 12-1
#7 Thebigfundamental 5-2
#6 Wild About Deb 12-1

Analysis: Nigel's Destiny tracked the early pace and could not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish at this level last out over a wet track. The winner was Hard Study, who came back to beat Alw-2 optional claimers in his next outing here on May 27. Motion adds blinkers and this gelding looks headed in the right direction as he makes his third start of his current form cycle.

Tathqeef was pinched back coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace and weakened in the stretch to finish fourth last out as the beaten chalk going a mile on the main track at the Big A. He was the beaten favorite two back as well at this condition in a third place finish. Three back in his U.S. debut coming at Gulfstream Park he was a game second, beaten just 3/4 of a length. The blinkers come off and he returns off nearly a tow month break. he reunites with Rosario and the 12-1 morning line looks generous after this guy took plenty of action in his last three outings.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 3,5 / 3,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 10 The Crank It Up (5:20 ET)
#3 Big City Dreamin 7-2
#5 Fly Swift 4-1
#6 Who's the Lady 10-1
#9 R Naja 6-1

Analysis: Big City Dreamin took the field gate to wire to beat Alw-2 optional claimers at Churchill Downs going five furlongs in her first start off a nine month layoff. She broke her maiden on the fake stuff at Presque Isle and had the lead heading for home in eh Bottom Landing but weakened to finish fifth. She makes her second start since landing with Cox who is 39% winners (with a +ROI) with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff.

Fly Swift was off last and made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out against Alw-1 optional claimers at Gulfstream park going five furlongs as the beaten chalk. She was a game maiden winner two back in her first go off a 5 1/2 month layoff. She looks primed for a top effort in her third start off the bench.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 3,5,6,9
TRI: 3,5 / 3,5,6,9 / 3,4,5,6,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 The Metropolitan Hcp G1 (4:41 ET)
#12 Awesome Slew 6-1
#11 Tommy Macho 10-1
#9 Mor Spirit 5-2
#2 Rally Cry 5-1

Analysis: Awesome Slew should get a good trip breaking from the outside post and might even be a bit closer early than he has been in his last couple of outings. Last out he was more than a dozen lengths back and made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in the Churchill Downs (G2) over a wet track. The winner Limousine Liberal came back to win the Aristides (G3) in his next start at Churchill Downs on June 3. Our top pick earned a career top two back winning the Commonwealth (G3) at Keeneland going seven furlongs off a two month break. He comes in here very sharp and is going to be a fair price in this spot.

Tommy Macho was third last out in the Carter 'Cap (G1). The Pletcher trainee tracked the early pace from the inside, got stuck behind foes in the stretch and as bumped and lost momentum briefly inside the final furlong. When this guy is good he can fire big figs but is not real reliable. He earned a 105 Beyer three back winning the Hal's Hope (G3) for fun at Gulfstream Park going a one turn mile. He has a couple of wins over the main track here and will appreciate the extra furlong. After being below 3-1 in each of his five starts the 10-1 morning line looks enticing.

Wagering
WIN: #12 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 11,12 / 1,9,11,12
TRI: 11,12 / 2,9,11,12 / 2,5,9,11,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #5 Tathqeef 12-1
R1: #6 Wild About Deb 12-1
R3: #3 Sunny Ridge 10-1
R5: #2 Paid Up Subscriber 8-1
R5: #6 Bar of Gold 12-1
R8: #7 Antonoe 8-1
R9: #11 Tommy Macho 10-1
R10: #6 Potemkin 8-1
R11: #12 Patch 12-1
R13: #5 River Echo 8-1