Belmont Stakes Betting Preview and Picks
By Dan Nowak
Weather forecast is for 60 percent chance of rain with scattered thunderstorms throughout the day on Saturday. This could mean an off track at Belmont Park for the Belmont Stakes.
Horses listed in order of post position followed by odds and analysis:
Dave in Dixie (20-1) – Getting the 1.5-mile distance is the big question. A synthetic track specialist whose only plus is the rail-huggin’ Borel.
Spangled Star (30-1) – His Beyer numbers (speed figures) have been improving and he has one of the country’s best jockeys aboard. Back end of the exotics (second, third) likely for this horse.
Uptowncharlybrown (10-1) – A live long shot. He has three solid workouts at Belmont and the distance shouldn’t be a problem. His jockey (Rajiv Maragh) is based at Belmont and that experience provides a big edge.
Make Music For Me (10-1) – Not sure what to make of this horse but I will use him in my exotics for a second or third place play. His jockey is inexperienced at Belmont but the horse had two good workouts at Belmont.
Fly Down (9-2) – A lot to like here and my pick for the mild upset win. He is the only horse in the field with a win at Belmont (Dwyer Stakes, May 8). He has an experienced Belmont Park jockey (John Velazquez) who won 24 racing titles in New York and a New York-based trainer (Nick Zito) who won this race twice.
Ice Box (3-1) – Deserving favorite who probably should have won the Kentucky Derby instead of getting second place due to traffic problems. Deep rallying style doesn’t fit here and he struggled in his only start at Belmont. He can be beat.
Drosselmeyer (12-1) – This is a dangerous horse who should challenge down the home stretch. He has three impressive workouts at Belmont, solid connections and a pair of decent races at Belmont including a second in the Dwyer Stakes.
Game On Dude (10-1) – Gaining a lot of support from pro handicappers but mixed signals here. Jockey Martin Garcia’s inexperience at Belmont is a red flag but one of the hottest connections in the country (Garcia and trainer Bob Baffert) has to be respected. Garcia won the Preakness for Baffert aboard Lookin At Lucky.
Stately Victor (15-1) – Eighth in the Kentucky Derby last time out and seems better suited for turf or synthetic track racing. Pedigree indicates he can get the distance but his deep rallying style doesn’t fit here.
Stay Put (20-1) – Wiseguy handicappers are jumping on his bandwagon due to a speedy win in a 1 1/16th-mile optional claimer last time out in 1:44.1. He had two very wide trips in two previous races where he was fifth both times (Louisiana Derby, Risen Star). Only wins have come in optional claimers (two) and a maiden special weight. Value increases with rain for this proven mudder.
First Dude (7-2) – The likely pacesetter in a race lacking early speedsters. Winning wire-to-wire is rare in this marathon race. New York-based rider Ramon Dominguez finished second with him in the Preakness. Perhaps poised for another second place finish here?
Interactif (12-1) – A talented horse. But a long layoff and starting off wide in the outside post are two negatives. Interesting jockey change to Javier Castellano who won the Preakness with Bernardini in 2006.
Race day advice: This race is usually won by a horse that raced well at Belmont Park in the past or at least trained well at Belmont. Experienced Belmont jockeys and trainers are a plus too. This is as wide open as a race of this caliber can get with no true standouts. The key for bettors is to tray and beat the favorite who in this case is very beatable.
Picks: 1. Fly Down, 2. Ice Box, 3. Uptowncharlybrown.
My plan is to play several five-horse or six-horse trifecta keys with Fly Down and Uptowncharlybrown on top (win spot) with combinations underneath that include Make Me Music, First Dude, Drosselmeyer, Ice Box, Game On Dude and Stay Put. I will also use Ice Box on top to win as a backup play in two or three trifecta keys. My main exacta box will be Fly Down, Ice Box, Uptowncharlybrown and Game On Dude.
At the Gate - Belmont Stakes
By Mike Dempsey
Hall of fame trainer Nick Zito will be looking for his third Belmont Stakes (G1) victory this afternoon, and his chances look pretty good as he sends out the likely favorite Ice Box and Fly Down, who figures to be the third choice in the field of 12.
Zito is a native New Yorker, but fans at Belmont Park did not celebrate his first two Belmont wins with much enthusiasm.
His first came in 2004 with Birdstone, who rolled past Smarty Jones in the stretch to end the Triple Crown bid of the popular colt.
The second Belmont win was with Da’Tara, who was the shocking winner in 2008. The focus that year was on Big Brown, who was eased on the far turn by jockey Kent Desormeaux.
This year has a different feel for Zito, with no Triple Crown at stake, and neither of his horses will pay anything near the $2 mutuels of $79.00 and $77.00 for his first two wins, the fourth and fifth longest prices in the history of the race.
The duo will have to deal with the Preakness runner up First Dude, who appears to be the lone speed in the field.
The colt set all the fractions in Baltimore, but could not hold off Lookin At Lucky in deep stretch, settling for the runner up spot.
While the race this year lacks the drama of the past few years, the winner can jump up and lay claim to being at the top of the list of three year olds.
Last year Summer Bird won the Belmont, and followed it up with wins in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup, leading to the Eclipse Award for top three year old colt.
The card at Belmont Park starts early this morning, with a first post of 11:35 ET.
There is a $1 million guaranteed all stakes Pick 6 starting with the sixth race, and a $1 million guaranteed all stakes Pick 4 starting in the eighth race.
The Pick 4 is going to be tough to solve. The four race sequence starts with the $250,000 True North Handicap (G2), which drew a solid field of ten sprinters.
The $300,000 Betfair TVG Acorn (G1) drew a field of 13 three year olds fillies, and the $400,000 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (G1) drew a field of 11.
The Pick 4 sequence ends with the Belmont Stakes.
ABC will be televising the race, with the two hour program staring at 5:00 ET. Post time for the Belmont Stakes is 6:32 ET.