BMW Championship Betting Preview
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Those that are still standing in the FedEx Cup Playoffs will return to Conway Farms Golf Club in Carmel, Indiana for the BMW Championship, which begins on Thursday. This is the third event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the players are coming off of a rare bye week. The previous event, the Dell Technologies Championship, is a Friday to Monday format at TPC Boston with the Labor Day holiday, so the players had an extra week to get things squared away.
With a lot of players that have homes in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, the extra time could not have come at a better time with Hurricane Irma moving through the southeast. The storm may affect play later in the week in Indiana as the storm moves north, so that will be something to watch as we go forward.
This is a much smaller field than most PGA events. Only the top 70 in FedEx Cup points are eligible to participate. This is a tournament that has moved around a little bit in its short history dating back to 2007. It is back at Conway Farms for the third time. It was at Conway Farms in 2013 and 2015. Last year’s event was played at Crooked Stick, along with the 2012 event. Prior to that, it was at Cog Hill for three years, which is where it started with the inaugural event. So, keep that in mind if course form data is how you handicap. It will be at Aronimink Golf Club next year and Medinah in 2019.
Conway Farms is a 7,200-yard par 71 with a Tom Fazio design. It may not be the most scenic course to look at, but this course incorporates a lot of challenging elements. There are a lot of undulations and dips and dives, similar to a European course, but it has some of the most challenging greens on the PGA Tour calendar. The par 3 holes are particularly tough. Still, Jason Day won at 22-under in 2015 and Zach Johnson won at 16-under in 2013. It’s not a surprise that there are some guys going low here, though, since there are only 70 players and the limited field would suggest that golf’s best are conquering this beast.
According to 5Dimes Sportsbook, Jordan Spieth is this week’s favorite at +610. Spieth finished 11 shots off the pace in 2015 at Conway Farms at 11-under. He shot 65-66 early in the week, but faltered over the weekend with a 72-70 finish. Spieth had a couple of inconsistent tournaments following his win at Royal Birkdale in The Open. He was 13th at Firestone in the WGC-Bridgestone and 28th in the PGA Championship. He has since bounced back with runner-up finishes at the Northern Trust and the Dell Technologies Championship. This is a good course for Spieth, since it doesn’t require a lot of length and is more about precision and putting. Those are two things he has excelled at this season. Spieth was 16th in 2013 with a 71-65-73-68 finish.
Dustin Johnson is +705. He won the Northern Trust to get back on track and put himself in a great position for the FedEx Cup playoffs. He was inconsistent in Boston with a couple of 66s on Friday and Sunday, but a 72 on Saturday and a 73 on Monday. Johnson is the reigning champion of this event and a two-time winner, but neither of his wins have been at Conway Farms. He was seventh, nine shots back, in 2015 and tied for 62nd in 2013 at 9-over. DJ fired a second-round 62 at Conway Farms in 2015, but Jason Day opened 61-63 and the tournament was basically decided by that point. Between Spieth and Johnson, Spieth would be the preferred favorite play.
Justin Thomas, the winner two weeks ago in Boston, is +980 this week. Thomas also finished tied for 13th back in 2015 and wasn’t in the running in 2013. Thomas is back in spectacular form. After winning three events early in the year, Thomas went into the tank a little bit over the summer months. Thomas won last week at 17-under and made it his second win in his last three events. Thomas also won the PGA Championship about a month ago. He was sixth at the Northern Trust, so he’s in outstanding form. This looks like a course where Thomas can score well because it fits a lot of his skills. He’s strong and accurate off the tee, but really does well with the middle irons and the wedges. If he makes some putts, he can certainly score the victory here in this event. He’s not a bad look, despite the low price.
Jon Rahm and Rickie Fowler are both in there at +1200. This is the first FedEx Cup playoffs go-around for Rahm, who has had a phenomenal season. Rahm doesn’t seem to least bit concerned with the added pressure. After struggling down the stretch in the regular season, Rahm has finished third and fourth in the last two events. He’s shot 68 or better in seven of his eight playoff rounds. As great as Rahm has played, with nine top-10 finishes, he only has one win. It’s tough to take him in this spot as a result, but he should be with the final pairings on Sunday.
Rickie Fowler finished fourth here two years ago. Nobody was catching Jason Day, so it seems unfair to say that Fowler was eight shots back, but he went 69-66-66-69 over his four rounds at Conway Farms. He had nowhere near the success in 2015 with an even par finish. To Fowler’s credit, he opened with a 77 and worked his way back to even par for a 39th-place finish. Fowler has four straight top-20 finishes, but he only has one win this season. Like Rahm, he has nine top-10s this year. Fowler just can’t get himself one of those really big events. He doesn’t have a major and hasn’t really been able to get over the hump in the playoffs. It’s tough to take him as a result.
Hideki Matsuyama is an intriguing pick at +1400. So is Jason Day at +1600, considering Day set this course on fire last year with how well he played. His form hasn’t been great this season and ongoing health problems with his back have made it tricky for him. It’s tough to take him with those things in the back of everybody’s mind. Day was also fourth here in 2013, so maybe he can tap into the fountain of youth and look like his former self.
The best values on the board are in the 20s, with Paul Casey, Rory McIlroy, and Henrik Stenson. McIlroy finished fourth in this event two years ago. He struggled through his first two rounds in 2013, but finished 68-68- to salvage something out of the weekend. He’s +220 this week. Stenson cracked the top-10 two years ago, but his 71-63-71-67 was all over the map. Scores were low on Friday, so we’ll see if things change with the pin placements and the weather this time around.
Those in search of a value pick may want to consider Zach Johnson at +7500. Johnson won this event in 2013 and finished 10th in 2015. At the very least, consider him in some top-five and top-10 finish props.
DFS Golf Picks: The 2017 BMW Championship
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
The BMW Championship heads back to Conway Farms Golf Club in Carmel, Indiana this season for the third of four events in the FedEx Cup playoffs. This event was at Conway Farms in 2015 and 2013, so we have a fair amount of course form data to go off of for this week’s golf daily fantasy picks.
We’ll try to help you with your daily fantasy golf choices by looking for the top values. Everybody can take the top guys and hope for the best, but it’s often that low-cost missing piece that makes all the difference in your GPPs, 50/50s, or H2H matchups.
Value Picks
Zach Johnson ($8,300) – It’s tough to find a good price on a player with past success at Conway Farms. One that fits the bill is Zach Johnson. Johnson won this event back in 2013 and finished inside the top 10 in 2015. His recent form has not been on point, but he’s also not that far removed from finishing second at Firestone. All of the players had a week off after the Monday finish at TPC Boston and Johnson certainly looks like he needed it. With a renewed energy and a course that Johnson has conquered in the past, he’s a decent look this week just below the average salary in DraftKings formats.
Matt Kuchar ($8,200) – We’re still waiting for that huge win for Matt Kuchar. Kuchar doesn’t have a win this season, but has been steady and reliable for those that have rostered him. Kuchar was ninth at the PGA Championship and 10th at the Northern Trust before running into some issues at TPC Boston. This is a decent course for Kuchar, since it isn’t long like many of the others. He was accurate off the tee at the Northern Trust and has had an extra week to get back into a good rhythm. He’s a fine choice this week.
Gary Woodland ($7,100) – Perhaps Gary Woodland found something over his last two rounds at TPC Boston. Woodland hadn’t broken 70 in his six FedEx Cup playoff rounds until he finished with a couple of 67s in the Dell Technologies Championship. That 7-under score was good enough to put Woodland in the top 20. Woodland shot 69-71-70 in his first three rounds two years ago at Conway Farms, but finished with a 75 on a tough day to score that dropped him to 60th. In 2013, he played well and finished inside the top 20. He’s a great buy low candidate at this price.
Phil Mickelson ($7,300) – Lefty is definitely worth consideration this week, right? Phil Mickelson was just picked for the Presidents Cup as a captain’s pick with four rounds under 70 at TPC Boston. It was the first time that Lefty really looked like the player of old in quite some time. It has been a rough year with a caddy change and some swing modifications, but maybe things are settling in. He finished with a 7-under 277 in 2015, which was just outside the top 30, and 1-under 283 in 2013 to finish 33rd. He should be a nice, safe pick here.
Patrick Reed ($8,000) – Patrick Reed is finding a second gear. The Ryder Cup hero from last year has finished second, 20th, and sixth over his last three events. In that span, Reed has seven rounds below 70. He’s had more birdies than bogies each of his last five events, though a couple of doubles have crept in. Reed shot a solid 8-under in this event two years ago. He’s running pretty good right now and seems to have that late-season form back once again this year. He’s a fine addition to your roster this week.
Players to Avoid:
Jordan Spieth ($10,500) – This probably isn’t the best course for Jordan Spieth, who won’t have the margin for error that longer hitters have, particularly the other guys in his price range. Spieth did play very well at Bethpage, but struggled a little bit at TPC Boston, mainly in the third round. He did not play this course back in 2012, so there may be some things that he has to feel out over the first couple of days and that may be detrimental with a field as talented as this one.
Paul Casey ($8,300) – It’s going to be a tough mental hurdle for Paul Casey to get over. He moved up the FedEx Cup points standings and got a great payday for finishing second at the Deutsche Bank Championship, but he also gave away a big lead to let Rory McIlroy sneak in and take his title. Casey has had some really good finishes this season, but this is a short turnaround for everybody, so he doesn’t have much time to erase that bad memory.