Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Friday, November 4th, 2016

BC - Juvenile Turf
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Juvenile Turf

Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $1 million
Age: 2YO
Time: 5:25 p.m. ET

The History

Contested by both sexes in its inaugural running back in 2007 and featured the Breeders’ Cup debut of Gio Ponti, who had a nightmare trip.

Favorites: 1 for 9 (11%)
Shortest: $6.80 (Pounced, 2009)
Highest: $27.20 (Nownownow, 2007)
U.S based: 3
Foreign based: 6

The Best

The connections of Good Samaritan contemplated a run on dirt but opted for this more logical spot as this son of Harlan’s Holiday has acted like a lawn mower in his first two on turf. He stormed home at Saratoga to win his debut by a head before coming with an equally impressive rally in the G2 Summer at Woodbine last out.

Oscar Performance was touted as a good one upon his debut but managed only a sixth place finish before exploding to win in gate-to-wire fashion by over ten lengths. Last out, he once again set the pace, this time on yielding ground, but was equally as impressive, taking the G3 Pilgrim by six lengths.

Intelligence Cross and Lancaster Bomber begin the Aidan O’Brien/Coolmore assault on this year’s Breeders’ Cup in a race that has been dominated by the Euros. Intelligence Cross is a two time winner from six starts, including a Group 3 score while Lancaster Bomber has won just once in five tries but did finish second in a Group 1 last out behind the streaking Churchill. Both will be adding Lasix and stretching out to a mile for the first time. O’Brien won this last year with Mile entrant Hit It a Bomb.

The Rest

Keep Quiet won the G3 Bourbon at Keeneland from just off the pace after a second place finish in the G2 With Anticipation. He’s won two of his four turf starts in all.

Made You Look finished second in his debut before rattling off two straight, including an impressive tally in the With Anticipation two months ago. His trainer Todd Pletcher will also saddle J. S. Choice. A maiden winner in his second start, J. S. Choice closed to be second off of a bit of an awkward stretch rally when second in the Pilgrim.

Big Score won the Zuma Beach, the local prep for this last out off of a second place finish to Bowies Hero in a minor stakes at Del Mar. Bowies Hero was a no show in the Zuma Beach but like Big Score, broke his maiden at first asking.

Channel Maker was third in the Summer after breaking his maiden in a restricted stakes against Canadian breds when adding blinkers.

Favorable Outcome tries turf for the first time having finished third to stablemate Practical Joke and Syndergaard in the G1 Champagne at Belmont for Chad Brown, who’ll also send out Bourbon runner-up Ticonderoga. Second to Good Samaritan in his debut, Ticonderoga broke his maiden impressively before his last where he was favored at 4-5.

Rodiani ships across the pond having won the first four starts of his career at distances up to seven furlongs before a nightmare trip last out when he stretched out to a mile and beat just one of his nine foes.

Wellabled is perfect in three starts over synthetic tracks and just missed after setting the pace in a minor turf stakes at Saratoga in his second start.

Kitten’s Cat, third in the Pilgrim and fourth place Zuma Beach finisher Harbour Master are on the also eligible list.

If I’m Right...

The Euros don’t seem to have as strong a hand as they’ve had in past runnings. It’s hard for me to see anyone but Good Samaritan or Oscar Performance winning this but they are two-year-olds so anything could happen.

Live Longshot

Local hope Big Score ran the best race of his short career at this trip over the course and figures to get lost in the shuffle on the tote board. 12-1 or higher works for me.

BC - Dirt Mile
November 1, 2016
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Dirt Mile

Distance: 1 mile
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up
Time: 6:05 p.m. ET

The History

Run around two turns at 1 mile and 70 yards in 2007 then on synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009. Finally run at its intended distance on dirt in 2010. Goldencents became the first back-to-back winner of the event with a pair of gate-to-wire scorchers in 2013 & 2014 while Liam’s Map powered away to win after a tough trip last year.

Favorites: 2 for 9 (22%)
Shortest: $3.00 (Liam’s Map, 2015)
Highest: $77.40 (Dakota Phone, 2010)
The champ is here? No. Liam’s Map is standing stud at Lane’s End Farm. But we do have 2015 Sprint winner Runhappy in here.

The Best

Dortmund makes his first start in a 2016 race that doesn’t feature leading Horse of The Year candidate California Chrome while cutting back to a distance he’s two for two at. You’ll recall he was a leading Kentucky Derby contender in 2015 and finished third behind eventual Triple Crown winning stablemate American Pharoah in the Derby.

This year, he returned from an eight month layoff to duke it out with Chrome through the stretch of the G2 San Diego, falling short by a half-length after setting the early pace before being taken off of the pace in the G1 Pacific Classic. Last out in the G1 Awesome Again, he stalked Chrome but couldn’t make any headway through the stretch and was beaten over two lengths in his first start with blinkers since his victorious debut. He’ll be reunited with jockey Martin Garcia.

Last year’s Sprint victor Runhappy has overcome a remarkable amount of human drama that we won’t get into to return to the Breeders’ Cup having raced just once in the past 10 months.

With the ultimate goal being the $12 million Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream in January 2017, his connections decided to forego an attempt at a Sprint repeat to stretch him out in here. His lone prep came in the one-turn mile, G3 Ack Ack at Churchill Downs. Runhappy dueled on the front end before tiring in deep stretch to finish fourth as the big favorite. This will be his first try around two turns since an abysmal effort in the G3 LeComte at the Fair Grounds in just the second start of his career last season.

In a year that has seen some erratic, dismal and mind-blowing performances from the three-year-old boys, Gun Runner has been the lone constant on the big stage. Save an off the board finish in the slop at Monmouth in the G1 Haskell, he’s finished in the trifecta in his other six tries.

He counts wins in both the G2 Risen Star and Louisiana Derby at the Fair Ground as well as the G3 Matt Winn at Churchill. Combine that with a third place finishes in the Kentucky Derby and G1 Travers, along with a place finish despite racing widest of all in the stretch in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby last out, and you have a pretty impressive sophomore season. Gun Runner broke his maiden in his career debut at this distance.

The Rest

Tamarkuz won all five of his starts at this distance in Dubai before shipping to the U.S. last season and taking on some tough customers since his arrival. He’s tried the G1 Met Mile and Forego twice the past two years and finally made some noise when he got up for second in this year’s Forego behind top sprinter A.P. Indian. Last out in the G2 Kelso at Belmont, he tracked Anchor Down the entire way but couldn’t make up the two lengths he needed to in the lane.

Vyjack winds up in the Dirt Mile after being left out of the body of the Mile despite winning the G2 City of Hope Mile on the grass last time out in just his second start for leading California trainer Phil D’Amato. Despite his recent turf form, Vyjack was a top three-year old early in 2013, won the first four starts of his career on dirt and was third in the G1 Wood Memorial. Overall, he’s earned over $1 million on dirt.

Accelerate started his career with three straight sprint defeats but is undefeated since stretching out around two turns in his last three. He won a minor stakes at Del Mar before getting up in the final strides in his graded stakes debut, the Los Alamitos Derby, most recently.

Point Piper will be seeking his first win at Santa Anita in his sixth try having traveled around the country for the better part of the past two seasons. Two back, he won the two turn Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs before failing to make an impact at the trip around one turn in the Kelso.

Another three-year-old that has had a solid season, albeit against lesser competition, is Texas Chrome. He’s hit the board in all seven starts and has knocked off the Prelude, G3 Super Derby and G3 Oklahoma Derby in his last three starts. This will be his first try against older rivals.

Tom’s Ready was on the Derby Trail earlier this year but has proven most effective around one turn. He stormed home from last to take the G2 Woody Stephens on Belmont Stakes Day and got up in the final strides of the Ack Ack last out to post a mild upset at almost 5-1.

If I’m Right…

Runhappy and Dortmund figure to take the bulk of the money in here and both do their best running on the front end. I’m not sure either are reliable enough, at this point and time, to survive a pace battle. You have to use them protectively in multi-race exotics but you may want to look elsewhere for a win bet.

Live Longshot

Tamarkuz, despite his solid record at the distance, has never been around two turns. He’s really come around to American racing in his last pair and he may be the forgotten horse in here at 12-1.

BC - Juvenile Fillies Turf
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $1 million
Age: 2YOf
Time: 6:50 p.m. ET

The History

Created in 2008, a year after the Juvenile Turf where fillies were forced to face colts, there isn’t much. Flotilla and Chriselliam won consecutive runnings of this in 2012 and 2013 for Europe after the U.S. won the first four runnings.

Favorites: 1 for 8 (12%)
Shortest: $6.80 (Lady Eli, 2014)
Highest: $29.20 (More Than Real, 2010)
U.S based: 6
Foreign based: 2

The Best

La Coronel has been nothing short of sensational and looks to continue the recent tradition of top turf fillies in the Mark Casse stable, see Tepin and Catch a Glimpse, last year’s winner of this, by running her record to three for three on the grass. She started off with a couple of decent efforts sprinting on dirt before switching surfaces to break her maiden by four lengths at Saratoga then winning the G3 Jessamine by over four lengths at Keeneland last out.

New Money Honey was second in her debut behind La Coronel then broke her maiden in the G3 Miss Grillo at Belmont over a course labeled yielding for Chad Brown, the only trainer to win two runnings of this event.

Hydrangea and Roly Poly represent Aidan O’Brien and both add Lasix for their stateside debuts. Hydrangea finished second in a pair of Group 1 efforts, including one at a mile in her last two and is one for six overall. Roly Poly has won three of seven starts, including a Group2 and 3, but has never raced past six furlongs. It’s worth noting that she did win around a left-handed turn course in her debut

The Rest

There are quite a few other first time U.S. runners in here, led by Intricately, trained by Joe O’Brien, son of Aidan. This filly upset a Group 1 last out over Hydrangea at 25-1.

Cavale Doree was second in her debut then won a pair of starts, including a Group 3, before fading in her first start at this distance.

Madam Dancealot is making her first start in over two months while stretching out to a mile for the first time. Unlike her fellow Euros, this last out Group 3 winner will have a U.S. rider, Hall of Famer John Velazquez, in the saddle.

Spain Burg has won four of five starts, including a last out Group 2 at seven furlongs. She’ll have Lasix, Frankie Dettori up and her running style suggests the added furlong will be to her liking.

La Force and Rymska both started their careers overseas before getting a prep here for this. Rymska was second in the Miss Grillo having won two straight before shipping over while La Force was making he first start in over three months when she was off a tad slow before settling for third in the Surfer Girl over this course.

Victory to Victory finished fifth and second in a pair of sprints to start her career for Casse before he successfully added blinkers and stretched her out to post a mild upset in the G1 Natalma at Woodbine.

Lull made the lead in the stretch of the Jessamine before tiring to second in her first start around two turns. She won two of her three prior starts, including a minor stakes at Kentucky Downs after clipping heels and falling in a stakes at Saratoga.

Coasted gets a rider change to the all-time leading jockey in Breeders’ Cup History, Mike Smith, off of a third place finish as the 3-2 favorite in the Miss Grillo. She won two starts on turf, including the P.G. Johnson at Saratoga, before her latest.

Happy Mesa won the Selima at Laurel and was second in the Surfer Girl, her first start for Graham Motion, after winning her debut on dirt for a $40K claiming tag.

Con Te Partiro, a sprinting stakes winner at Saratoga before finishing fourth in the Surfer Girl and maiden winner/fourth place Jessamine finisher Sweeping Paddy are on the also eligible list.

If I’m Right…

La Coronel drawing outside post 14 has really thrown a monkey wrench into this equation. She’s still a major player but you’d have to think it’s hurt her chances in some way.

Live Longshot

Coasted appeared to dislike the give in the ground at Belmont last out and now gets a course that should be plenty firm. The rider change to one of the best in the game doesn’t hurt either. If she’s anywhere near that 20-1 she is on the morning line I’m in!

BC - Distaff
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distaff

Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up (f&m)
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET

The History

In what could be considered the most memorable moment in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, Personal Ensign gunned down Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors in THE final stride of the 1988 running at Churchill Downs. Bayakoa won back to back runnings the following two years. Inside Information won it in 1995 by 13 ½ lengths, the largest winning margin in Breeders’ Cup history. Before tackling the boys twice, Zenyatta graced this race with her presence when she won it in 2008. Royal Delta won her second consecutive running in 2012 before failing in her attempt to three-peat in 2013 when 2012 Juvenile Fillies champ Beholder became the first winner of a juvenile event to win another Breeders’ Cup race. Rosie Napravnik announced her retirement after guiding the three-year-old Untapable to a popular score in 2014.

Favorites: 14 for 32 (44%)
Shortest: $2.80 (Life’s Magic Entry, 1985)
Highest: $113.80 (Spain, 2000)
The champ is here? No, Stopchargingmaria is retired but 2013 Distaff winner Beholder is.

The Best

It’s being dubbed “the mother of all Distaffs,” as the 2015 Two-Year-Old Filly, Three-Year Old Filly and Older Filly & Mare Eclipse Award winners face off. Undefeated, three-year-old Songbird figures to be the favorite despite facing older fillies and mares for the first time in what could very well be the race of the weekend.

After capping her juvenile season with an easy tally in the Juvenile Fillies, Songbird returned in February and rattled off three, handy wins in the G2 Las Virgenes, G3 Santa Ysabel and G1 Santa Anita Oaks. After a fever knocked her out of consideration for the Kentucky Oaks, she returned 10 weeks later to win the G2 Summertime Oaks. Those four wins, combined with her G1 Chandelier score last year, make for five wins in all at the Great Race Place in her 11 race career.

Her connections took Songbird on the road for her last three, with the first two starts coming at historic Saratoga. She was tested mightily for the first time when Carina Mia came calling on the turn in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks. They tussled briefly before Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith asked Songbird for seemingly the first time in her career. She responded by quickly drawing away to a five and a half-length victory.

It was easier in the 10 furlong Alabama when Songbird came from just off of the pace in the very early running in route to a seven length romp. Last out at Parx, Songbird once again stalked the early pace before pouncing on and vanquishing Carina Mia again to win by almost six lengths.

Many see this Distaff as a proverbially “passing of the baton” to Songbird from “Queen B,” Beholder. The 2013 winner of this event, Beholder is easily one of the best mares anyone has ever seen but it certainly appears that Father Time has caught up to her at the age of six.

Last year, she was undefeated in five tries, including a win against the boys in the G1 Pacific Classic before an illness kept her from an epic battle with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the Classic. This year began with a couple of wins in the G3 Adoration and G1 Vanity Mile where she beat her newest rival, Stellar Wind.

But things changed in the G1 Clement Hirsch. Beholder found herself being the hunted on the front end, with Stellar Wind glued to her the entire way. They duked it out through the lane, with Stellar Wind eventually wearing her down to notch a half-length score.

Beholder proved to be no match for California Chrome when she tried to defend her Pacific Classic title and had to settle for a runner-up finish some five lengths behind the winner. It was the first time in her career that spanned two dozen starts at the time that Beholder had lost consecutive races.

The thumping all but squashed any ideas of a tilt in the Classic, so she was pointed towards the G1 Zenyatta and a rubber match with Stellar Wind. Again put on the lead by Hall of Famer Gary Stevens, the Zenyatta was a carbon copy of the Hirsch, as Stellar Wind hounded her the entire way before getting her again by a neck.

Her fans are hoping the old boxing adage, that every good fighter has one more great fight in them. In her corner is the fact that this Distaff will be run at Santa Anita, where she has won 13 times and finished second twice in 15 starts.

As for Stellar Wind, this four-year-old just missed in here last year when beaten a neck despite some trouble through the stretch. Like her tough biggest rivals, she loves the course, having won four of her five starts over it with the lone blemish coming in that second place Vanity finish. She looks to spark a big weekend for her rider, Victor Espinoza and may actually be able to go back to her off-the-pace style as opposed to having to stalk the early action.

The Rest

Forever Unbridled is finally living up to her impeccable pedigree this season after being a bit of an underachiever in her first eight starts. In five starts as a four-year-old, she has won a pair of G1 races, the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn in April and the Beldame at Belmont last out, the G3 Houston Ladies Classic and finished behind Cavorting when she was second in the G1 Ogden Phipps and third in the G1 Personal Ensign. If the top three duke it out on the front end, she’ll be trying to run them down late.

I’m a Chatterbox completed her sophomore season with a tough trip, eighth place finish in this off of the first G1 win of her career in the Cotillion. This year, she’s knocked off both the G1 Delaware Handicap and the G1 Spinster last out. Despite her fairly impressive resume, she has certainly faced weaker for most of this season and will need to take a big step forward in here.

Curalina makes her first start in 10 weeks for Todd Pletcher, who’s looking for his third Distaff, having just missed in the Personal Ensign when second by a half-length. Third in this last season, she’s been hit and miss this year. She looked like a beast when winning the La Troienne at Churchill on Oaks Day by over seven lengths yet appeared completely overwhelmed when off the board in the Phipps as the favorite.

Land Over Sea has faced Songbird in six of her twelve career starts with three runner-up finishes to her credit. Her biggest tally this season came when she got out of the champs shadow to roll home an easy winner in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks before finishing a solid second in Kentucky Oaks.

Corona Del Inca won a Win and You’re In race in her native Argentina to earn a birth to this. She’s been in training at Santa Anita since mid-September and has won four of her 10 career starts.

If I’m Right…

Songbird is going to turn what appears to be a great horse race on paper into an absolute laugher with an authoritative victory over this bunch.

Live Longshot

Those three second place finishes for Land Over Sea against Songbird came at Santa Anita. If the rest take their shots early, maybe she can fill out the exacta at 25-1 or so.

Friday Analysis
By Steve Haskin
Bloodhorse.com

Friday’s card provides a little bit of everything, with a pair of tough, extremely wide-open 2-year-old turf events, Dortmund finally getting away from California Chrome, Songbird’s attempt to remain unbeaten against the toughest field she’s ever faced by far, and the continuing rivalry between champions Beholder and Stellar Wind.

If California Chrome should get beat in the Classic on Saturday, a victory by Songbird against this talented a field could earn her Horse of the Year honors.

JUVENILE TURF – Aidan O’Brien has done very well in this race and he has two exceptional colts in Lancaster Bomber and Intelligence Cross, both of whom are coming off good efforts in group I stakes. Lancaster Bomber was in the Dewhurst Stakes to set the pace for O’Brien’s big 2-year-old Churchill, and while did his job, he surprisingly kept going after Churchill passed him and managed to finish second at odds of 66-1.

The American horses are a salty group, with every one of them having the credentials to win. The two most talented look to be the undefeated Summer Stakes winner Good Samaritan, who turned in an absolutely sensational half-mile work in :47 2/5 over the Santa Anita turf course, the only horse working on the turf course that morning, and the brilliant Pilgrim Stakes winner Oscar Performance, who has devastated his opponents in his last two starts and looks to be something special.

Oscar Performance did not have the best of luck at the draw, coming out of the 13-post, which means Jose Ortiz will have to use him to get position, most likely right off the quick sprinter Wellabled. But I still believe this is an enormously gifted colt, who could prove a bargain at 4-1. Good Samaritan also drew toward the outside in post 11, and based on his work and the way he handled this turf course, he is going to be very tough to beat, probably sitting somewhere in midpack.

If these two colts break well and get a good trip, I’m not sure anyone can beat them. I am also intrigued by Favorable Outcome, even though he has never run on grass; or maybe because he’s never run on grass and brings an unknown factor into the race. I actually would have given him a decent shot in the Juvenile. His six-length maiden romp in 1:09 4/5 at Saratoga was as impressive as any 2-year-old seen at the Spa. In the grade I Champagne Stakes, only his second career start, he got up in Syndergaard’s ridiculously fast pace (:44 3/5 and 1:08 3/5) and still held on for third. This is a colt bred for two turns, being by Flatter, out of an Eltish mare, and he could actually improve going two turns on grass.

Eltish, who ran third behind Cigar in the Arlington Citation Challenge and was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Iselin Handicap, did begin his career in Europe, placing in the Dewhurst, Royal Lodge, and Prince of Wales’s Stakes, so there is turf close up in his pedigree. He’s a guess, but at 15-1, he could fit nicely in the exotics with Oscar Performance, my main selection, and Good Samaritan.

I would put a few bucks on him to win just in case, and at 8-1 I like Big Score, who has a stakes win over the course, winning the Zuma Beach Stakes from the 11-post and racing some three-wide without cover the whole race, while coming home his last quarter in :24 flat. I loved his five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5 on dirt the other day and the acceleration he showed nearing the wire.

There are plenty of others to choose from, such as With Anticipation winner Made You Look, and Bourbon Stakes 1-2 finishers Keep Quiet and Ticonderoga. But then these juvenile turf races are always a crap shoot and you just have to get lucky.

Exacta and trifecta box – It’s dangerous leaving out the Europeans, but I’ll go with Oscar Performance, Good Samaritan, Favorable Outcome, and Big Score. Even with his bad post, I still believe Oscar Performance could be something special and will find a way to overcome it. Maybe his post will keep his odds up a little.

DIRT MILE – The chalk looks pretty strong here, with Dortmund, Gun Runner, and Runhappy. Dortmund will appreciate getting away from California Chrome and dropping back in distance, as Bob Baffert appears to have him very sharp. At 6-5, he’s certainly no bargain at the windows. Gun Runner also will appreciate a cut back in distance with a two-turn mile and always runs a good race. Runhappy is a grade I winner at seven furlongs, and he should improve off his fourth-place finish in the Ack Ack, a tough spot going a flat mile at Churchill Downs off a nine-month layoff.

Another who could easily hit the board is Tamarkuz, but he hasn’t won since taking the Godolphin Mile in March of 2015. But he is rounding into top form, improving with every race.

But my win selection here at a price is good old Vyjack, who, even at age 6, has been very sharp in his last two starts, having run the fastest Beyer speed figure of his career in his last start. He sort of reminds me of another “V for Victory” horse, Volponi, as both horses were warriors who ran big races at all distances and on grass and dirt. Vyjack showed his ability at a mile by winning the Kelso Handicap at Belmont in 1:34 flat in 2014. And he was on the Kentucky Derby trail, winning the Jerome and Gotham Stakes, and finishing a close third in the Wood Memorial.

Since being sent to Phil D’Amato in California he has been reborn, finishing second in the seven-furlong Pat O’Brien Stakes at Del Mar in a blistering 1:20 1/5 behind Masochistic, arguably the fastest sprinter in California and one of the favorites for the Sprint. He then went back on grass and came from far back to win the grade II City of Hope Mile equaling the course record of 1:31 3/5. Relegated to the also-eligible list for the Mile for some reason, he nonetheless is in a good position here going back to the dirt. Flavien Prat seems to fit him well, getting him to relax off the pace, and I can see him closing fast to either pick up a piece of it or winning it all.

Exacta and trifecta box – Vyjack, Dortmund, Runhappy, and Gun Runner. But I may be tempted at the last minute to replace Runhappy with Tamarkuz depending on how the track is playing for speed. I have to bet Vyjack to win as well.

JUVENILE FILLY TURF – Good luck coming up with the winner of this race. This is a total crap shoot, especially with the exciting La Coronel, who looks to be the most gifted filly in the race, drawing post 14. Her only two turf starts were so impressive and so explosive, I’m not sure anyone could beat her. But now she will have to work out a decent trip from the far outside, which won’t be easy. But, at 9-2, maybe this is the time to bet her, figuring she’ll be longer odds than she should.

The Europeans look to be an evenly matched and talented group, dominated by the ubiquitous O’Brien family – two trained by Aidan and one trained by his son and former jockey Joseph, who will give a leg up to his younger brother, Donnacha. Aidan’s pair, Hydrangea and Roly Poly, both have big chances, but the latter is stuck out in post 13. Joseph will saddle Intricately, who nosed out Hydrangea in the group I Moyglare Stud Stakes at odds 25-1 in her last start.

Also from Europe is the recent U.S. purchase Spain Burg, who really impressed me with her late turn of foot, blowing by the 1-2 favorite Fair Eva in the seven-furlong Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket at 14-1. This was a huge effort and a big step up for this French-trained filly coming off three victories and a second in the provinces. She now is owned partly by Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and is trained by Kathy Ritvo, the team who brought you BC Classic winner Mucho Macho Man. The great Frankie Dettori, who rode her at Newmarket and has won his share of Breeders’ Cup races, will be back aboard. With all this going for her, she is my main selection at 5-1.

But there are so many fillies who can with this race, including the Chad Brown pair of New Money Honey and Rymska, one-two in the Miss Grillo Stakes. At odds of 10-1 and 20-1, respectively, both these fillies look like big overlays.

And I haven’t even mentioned the Natalma winner Victory to Victory, from Mark Casse’s barn, and two other dangerous Europeans, group III winner Madam Dancealot and a real sneaky 15-1 shot from France named Cavale Doree, winner of the Prix du Calvados at Deauville and a decent fifth of 11 in the recent group I Prix Marcel Boussac at Chantilly. You always have to beware of the French invaders, especially when they are overlooked.

There is also the second- and third-place finsishers in the Surfer Girl Stakes at Santa Anita, Happy Mesa and La Force, an Italian-trained filly, who was making her U.S. debut.

So, good luck sorting all this out.

Exacta and trifecta box – Going bombs away except for one. Spain Burg, Cavale Doree, La Corenel, and Rymska. And I’ll place a win bet on Spain Burg. But like the Juvenile Turf, we have one horse who could be special, bad post or no bad post.

DISTAFF – This one is pretty simple. Is Songbird the super horse many believe she is? If she is and is truly one of the great ones, then she can zip to the lead from the rail and just keep going, wiring her field once again. But if she is not and is no more than a sensational filly who has dominated her fellow 3-year-olds, then she is in for a rude awakening, running against a field far superior to anything she has faced so far.

I can honestly say I have no idea which is the case. Songbird looks to be something out of the ordinary, sort of like a female version of American Pharoah. But the question is, can she take the pace pressure she is likely going to get at different points in the race from the likes of older fillies and mares Beholder, I’m a Chatterbox, and Curalina, turn them all aside, and then still have enough to hold off Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled?

With one or more of the three pace fillies likely to test her from the half-mile pole and keep up the pressure around the far turn, it does look like a good setup for Stellar Wind, who is a champion herself, with the versatility to stalk and wear down Beholder or make a big late run as she did on several occasions as a 3-year-old. Her 5-2 morning line odds compared to 6-5 for Songbird is mighty enticing. And let’s not forget Beholder, also at 5-2, who has maintained her form at age 6 and who only last year turned in one of the most spectacular performances seen in a long time, crushing the boys in the Pacific Classic with devastating move on the turn. She was forced to go to the lead in her two narrow defeats to Stellar Wind, but now, breaking from the outside post, will be able to run her race.

I’m just going to sit back and enjoy this one. How can you not root for Songbird? But there are many still loyal to Beholder. If I was forced to put my money on someone, and try to make some kind of decent profit, I guess it would have to be Stellar Wind because of the way the race sets up, and as highly regarded as she is, she may actually be better than we think. I also think Forever Unbridled could run big enough to pick up a piece of it, coming off a sneaky impressive score in the Beldame Stakes.

But let’s just hope for a fantastic race and to see greatness on display.

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com

It is a big day today. That’s right, it is opening day at Aqueduct!

The 10-race card gets underway at 12:10 ET with the opening day feature the $200,000 Nashua (G2) which drew a compact field of five.

Okay, that’s enough about the Big A, it is also Breeders’ Cup Day 1, with a great 10 race card on tap at Santa Anita that features four of the 13 Breeders’ Cup races.

The first Breeders’ Cup race is the $1 million Juvenile Turf (G1) which might be one of the best wagering races over the two days of action. A full field of two-year-olds will head to the gate including three Euro invaders.

Then we get to see Dortmund in action in the $1 million Dirt Mile (G1). The Bob Baffert trainee gets away from California Chrome and is going to be tough to beat as the 6-5 morning line favorite.

Among his foes is last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) champ Runhappy, who makes his second start off the layoff and could be the underlay of the 13 races.

The $1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) drew a full field of 14 including six making their first start in the U.S. The home team has done well in this race, but the tides could shift here as there is a talented group that has made the trip.

The $2 million Distaff (G1) caps off the day, with three champions—Songbird, Beholder and Stellar Wind doing battle in the most anticipated race of the Breeders’ Cup.

However, let’s not discount the supporting cast of Curalina, Forever Unbridled and I’m a Chatterbox, as they are each multiple Garde 1 winners and they all figure to go off at double digit odds.

My Breeders’ Cup Package includes my full card report for Friday and Saturday along with my 38-page 2016 Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide, with everything you need to pad your wagering bankroll.

To purchase my Breeders’ Cup Package and Aqueduct Report click here.

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Alw $50,000s (12:20 ET)
#2 Bella Bailar 5-2
#1 Marnesia Big Girl 3-1
#6 Bagema 5-1
#5 Doinwhatshelikes 6-1

Analysis: Bella Bailar took the field gate to wire to beat $50,000 non-winners of two at Keeneland going six furlongs in a sharp effort. She bounced back after fading to finish a well beaten ninth two back against Alw-1 foes at Churchill Downs in her first start against winners. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and is in good hands with the sharp Cox barn that finds a great spot for her here facing starter allowance foes.

Marnesia Big Girl drew off to beat $25,000 non-winners of two by 14 lengths last out at Belmont Park going a mile in a race taken off the turf. Her five previous starts had come on turf and now Rice keeps her on dirt. Her maiden breaker came in the slop at Gulfstream Park last September. She should be able to handle the cut back to seven panels for a barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,5,6
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,2,3,5,6

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 OClm $40,000N2X (4:22 ET)
#1 Captain Gaughen 4-1
#5 Call Provision 8-5
#3 Runaway Posse 5-1
#7 Aragonite 8-1

Analysis: Captain Gaughen stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth-place finish against open Alw-2 optional claimers and now returns to the state bred ranks for the hit RRod barn. The gelding also stretches back out to a route and he has five wins on turf and two have been at this distance.

Call Provision as squeezed back coming out of the gate and weakened to finish sixth after tracking the early pace at the Spa going nine furlongs in the Saranac (G3). This guy has no trouble beating state bred Alw-1 foes two back, drawing away to win by 5 1/2 lengths as the chalk. He was only beaten a neck back in June in the Pennine Ridge (G3) in his first go against winners. The deserving chalk for Brown.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5,7
TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,3,5,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:

SA Race 5 The Golden State Juvenile Fillies (1:45 PT)
#8 Vai 7-2
#10 How About Zero 8-1
#3 Only You Babe 4-1
#9 My Pi Romancer 10-1

Analysis: Vai is perfect in two starts, breaking her maiden in her debut at Del Mar at 8-1 and then beating state bred Alw-1 optional claimers last out over the main track here as the chalk. The Glatt trainee owns solid early and mid pace numbers and looks as if she will be able to handle the extra furlong.

How About Zero is still a maiden but O'Neill thought enough of her to try her in stakes company in her debut where she ran second. She could not match strides with Ms Wakaya last out as the beaten favorite, settling for the runner up spot. Blinkers are added today and she figures to be in the mix early in this spot. She is out of an In Excess mare that has dropped two winners.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 8,10 / 3,8,9,10
TRI: 8,10 / 3,8,9,10 / 3,4,8,9,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #10 Pure Gemmz 15-1
R3: #5 Boys From Boston 8-1
R5: #10 Browneyed Bachelor 15-1
R6: #6 Tequila Sunday 12-1
R7: #4 Bug Juice 8-1
R8: #7 Aragonite 8-1
R9: #1 Indycott 12-1
R10: #10 Degrees of Freedom 8-1