BC - Juvenile Turf Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com
Juvenile Turf Preview
Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $1,000,000
Age: 2-Year-Olds
Date: Friday, Oct. 31
Time: 5:25 p.m. EDT
The History
Contested by both sexes in its inaugural running back in 2007 and featured the Breeders’ Cup debut of Gio Ponti, who had a nightmare trip.
Favorites: 1 for 7 (17%)
Shortest: $6.80 (Pounced, 2009)
Highest: $27.20 (Nownownow, 2007)
U.S based: 2/Foreign based: 5
The Best
Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore certainly won’t be sitting this one out as the multiple stakes placed War Envoy heads the Euro invasion. The most seasoned runner in this race with seven starts, War Envoy is winless in six starts since winning his debut.
Coolmore will also be represented by the globe-trotting Hootenanny who is trained by Wesley Ward. Hootenanny broke his maiden over the old Polytrack at Keeneland and was second on conventional dirt at Pimlico before winning on the grass at the prestigious Royal Ascot meet and finishing second in the G1 Prix Morny last out in France.
Rival Godolphin Stable may have America’s best hope at taking this as they’ll send out G3 Pilgrim winner Imperia. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, Imperia was second in his debut before breaking his maiden in the Pilgrim last out.
Ken and Sarah Ramsey will send out a pair of stakes winners, International Star and Luck of the Kitten. Trained by Ward, Luck of the Kitten went gate to wire in the Santa Anita prep for this, the Zuma Beach off of a second place finish in a stakes at Kentucky Downs. International Star broke his maiden on turf then finished second on dirt and turf in the G2 With Anticipation at Saratoga before shipping north to grab the G3 Grey over the Woodbine Polytrack last out for Mike Maker.
Startup Nation flew home in both his debut and the With Anticipation, a couple of impressive scores, before firing too late when fourth in the Pilgrim at odds of 1-2. Offering Plan was third in the Pilgrim after breaking his maiden with a last to first run in his Saratoga debut against fellow New York breds. Both colts are trained by Chad Brown.
The Rest
Lawn Ranger and Danny Boy were 1-2 in the Bourbon for Ken McPeek and Dale Romans, respectively. Lawn Ranger was defeated by Danny Boy in his debut before winning two straight while Danny Boy finished fourth on the dirt in the G3 Iroquois between his debut maiden score and the Bourbon.
We can’t forget Canadian invader Conquest Typhoon, easy winner of the G2 Summer on the lawn two starts back for trainer Mark Casse. Conquest Typhoon was second most recently in the Grey as the 9-5 chalk.
As for the rest of the Euros, Aktabantay won the G3 Solario in England by a nose against four others two back for trainer Hugo Palmer. He was a non-threatening sixth in the G1 Grand Criterium most recently. Commemorative was fourth in his debut then won his last two when stretching out to this trip, including the G3 Autumn Stakes last out for Charles Hills. Wet Sail has yet to run around a turn or past six furlongs in his one-for-four career for Charlie Fellowes.
John Sadler’s Daddy D T has tried every surface – dirt, turf, and synthetics – with his lone win coming on the lawn two back in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf at Del Mar going this distance.
The two on the also eligible list are Faithful Creek for Brian Meehan and Papacoolpapacool for Jeff Mullins. Faithful Creek has won just one of his six starts in Europe and was third behind the highly regarded John F Kennedy in the G3 Juvenile Turf Stakes in Ireland last out. Papacoolpapacool was third in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf as a maiden before graduating in gate-to-wire fashion over this course last time out.
The Strategy
I’ve seen this movie before…..the Euros don’t look that imposing on paper then they come over and whoop up on the U.S. runners anyway. I have a funny feeling this year will be different however, as these Euros look especially weak and I think some of the stateside representatives have bright futures.
The Bomb
Offering Plan will be the longer price of the Brown runners and was likely compromised by a slow opening quarter last out. He should get enough pace in here and will likely enjoy the firmer ground out in California. 12-1 or higher is a great price.
BC - Dirt Mile Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com
Dirt Mile Preview
Distance: 1 mile
Purse: $1,000,000
Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up
Date: Friday, Oct. 31
Time: 6:05 p.m. EDT
The History
Run around two turns at 1 mile and 70 yards in 2007 then on synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009. Finally run at intended distance on dirt for first time in 2010.
Favorites: 0 for 7 (0%)
Shortest: $9.40 (Corinthian, 2007)
Highest: $77.40 (Dakota Phone, 2010)
The champ is here? Yes. Goldencents is trying to become the first two-time winner of this race.
The Scenario
Front Runners: Fed Biz, Goldencents, Vicar’s in Trouble
Mid-pack: Big Bane Theory, Bourbon Courage, Bronzo, Carve, Handsome Mike, Pants On Fire, Tapiture
Closers: Capo Bastone, Golden Ticket
The Best
Defending Dirt Mile winner Goldencents will look to help establish this “new” Breeders’ Cup race as a mainstay at the World Championships with a repeat tally. Since taking this event last year in front running fashion over a famously speed biased course, Goldencents has one just once in five tries, two starts back in the G2 Pat O’Brien going seven panels over the Polytrack at Del Mar.
In his other three tries this season, Goldencents finished second in a trio of G1 race. Palace Malice defeated him by a length in the Met Mile at Belmont, he came running too late to get to Big Macher in the Bing Crosby at Del Mar and last out he was gunned down by Rich Tapestry in the SA Sprint Championship after he opened up a lead at the eighth pole. He’ll run in Leandro Mora’s name as trainer Doug O’Neill serves a suspension.
Should the champ fail in his defense, Bob Baffert’s Fed Biz is a logical contender to pick up the pieces. Sixth in this last year, Fed Biz didn’t return to the races until Del Mar when he easily won the G2 San Diego in gate-to-wire fashion before finishing second to Goldencents in the O’Brien. Last out, in one of his best efforts to date, Fed Biz gave Classic favorite Shared Belief all he could handle when he missed by just a neck in the G1 Awesome Again over this course.
Another logical threat to Goldencents is Tapiture from the Steve Asmussen barn. One of the more talked about three-year-olds in the spring, poor efforts in the G1 Arkansas Derby and G1 Kentucky Derby led many to discard him earlier in the year. But Tapiture had a solid summer, with wins in the G3 Matt Winn at Churchill and G2 West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer coming before a runner-up finish in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby behind Classic contender Bayern last out. Tapiture was up against the bias that day and he was widely considered a Classic buzz horse before Asmussen, who won this two years ago with Tapizar, said he’d run here.
The Rest
Last year’s runner-up Golden Ticket has won just one of his subsequent 9 starts for trainer Ken McPeek since he came flying up the rail while against the bias last year in this. After a seventh place finish last year for Kelly Breen, Pants On Fire is taking another crack at the Dirt Mile this year while coming off a win in a stakes at Charles Town.
Vicar’s in Trouble has had a strong if not spectacular sophomore season and figures to love this trip. He’s romped home in the G3 LeComte, G2 Louisiana Derby and G2 Super Derby this year, has suffered narrow defeats in the West Virginia Derby and last out in the Indiana Derby and possess enough speed to keep him in the mix from the get go for trainer Mike Maker. Carve won three in a row, including the G3 Cornhusker at Prairie Meadows, for trainer Brad Cox earlier this year but failed to fire in his latest in the Homecoming Classic at Churchill.
Big Bane Theory has run well at the distance, namely last out when he won the G2 City of Hope, but that was on turf and this would be his first start on conventional dirt. Trainer Carla Gaines has him cross entered in the Mile (first preference) as well but he currently is fourth on the alternates list. Bourbon Courage is cross entered for Kellyn Gorder in the Sprint where he is assured a starting berth and will likely run there.
Trainer Todd Pletcher will send out former G1 winner, the late running Capo Bastone while South American “Win and You’re In” winner Bronzo will make the trip from Chile for Jorge Inda. Leandro Mora, pinch hitting for the suspended Doug O’Neill will saddle Handsome Mike, who is 0 for 7 on the dirt at Santa Anita.
The Strategy
Goldencents is the marquee name as he is the defending champion but I’m not sold on his form this year. Plus, he was heavily aided by that notoriously speed biased surface on B.C. Friday last year. You can argue that he might get the same type of track this year. I’ll argue that he needs it. A spread race for me in the Friday Pick 4, that’s for sure.
The Bomb
Golden Ticket has run two of the best races of his career over the surface and figures to get plenty of pace to close into. 12-1 or higher is a fair price.
BC - Juvenile Fillies Turf Preview
October 26, 2014
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com
Juvenile Fillies Turf Preview
Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $1,000,000
Age: 2-Year-Old Fillies
Date: Friday, Oct. 31
Time: 6:50 p.m. EDT
The History
Created in 2008, a year after the Juvenile Turf where fillies were forced to face colts, there isn’t much. Flotilla and Chriselliam won consecutive runnings of this in 2012 and 2013 for Europe after the U.S. won the first four runnings.
Favorites: 0 for 6 (0%)
Shortest: $14.20 (Stephanie’s Kitten, 2011)
Highest: $29.20 (More Than Real, 2010)
U.S based: 4
Foreign based: 2
The Best
When it comes to turf races contested at the Breeders’ Cup, there is almost always a U.S. against the world feel. This year in this event, the battle may take on more of an East Coast versus West Coast flavor as the stateside contingent is seemingly a strong one, led by Sunset Glow and Lady Eli.
Though just a baby, Sunset Glow has done more travelling in her short time than most will do in a lifetime. She debuted in Pennsylvania, broke her maiden on the grass against the boys at Belmont then finished second just two weeks later across the pond at Royal Ascot. Upon her return, she settled in California for trainer Wesley Ward and won both the G2 Sorrento and G1 Del Mar Debutante sprinting over Polytrack.
While Sunset Glow was establishing herself in California, Lady Eli broke her maiden in her debut in remarkable fashion, overcoming a rough and tough trip to get the money at Saratoga before storming home to win the G3 Miss Grillo last out at Belmont for trainer Chad Brown.
Brown will also send out the beaten favorite in the Miss Grillo, Tammy the Torpedo, who was closer to a slow pace last out when settling for third. In her debut score, Tammy the Torpedo closed from far back to win going away.
As for the Euros, G3 Juddmonte Princess Margaret winner Osaila appears to lead the brigade as she’s won half of her six starts already for Richard Hannon. Qualify ships in for Aidan O’Brien off of a score in the G3 Weld Park Stakes in her most recent and is just two for six overall. Prize Exhibit is winless in three graded stakes in England since beating the boys by nine lengths in a minor race for Jamie Osbourne.
The Rest
Conquest Harlanate represents Mark Casse and our neighbors to the north and comes into this on a three race win streak that includes wins in the G2 Natalma on turf and G3 Mazarine over the synthetic surface at Woodbine. Natalma runner-up Isabelle Sings will look to avenge her neck defeat for trainer Todd Pletcher in here.
Partisan Politics broke her maiden in the P.G. Johnson at the Spa before finishing fourth in the Miss Grillo while Sivoliere is a three time winner in France who has been training in New York. Both fillies are also trained by Brown.
Rainha Da Bateria added Lasix for the G3 Jessamine at Keeneland and exploded through the lane to win in ultra-impressive fashion for Graham Motion. Rainha Da Bateria broke her maiden in a turf sprint at first asking before faltering in the P.G. Johnson at the Spa. Jessamine bridesmaid Quality Rocks ran a winning race for Bill Mott last out. Minor stakes winner
Lady Zuzu broke her maiden in her third start and second on turf at Keenland last out when stretching out to this distance in gate-to-wire fashion from post 11 for D. Wayne Lukas. She’s Complete was second in the Surfer Girl, behind the injured Her Emmynency, for trainer Doug O’Neill and will run in Leandro Mora’s name.
Nicky’s Brown Miss broke her maiden in her fifth start when she won the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies two back before flopping in the Miss Grillo for Savino Capilupi while Flying Tipat, a full sister to the 2009 winner of this event Tapitsfly, broke her maiden at third asking last out at Keeneland when adding Lasix for Dale Romans. These fillies are the first two alternates.
The Strategy
As is the case with most of the juvenile races, especially the turf ones, you just don’t know what the Euros have to offer. Chad Brown is scheduled to saddle four of the 14 runners in the field so he figures to play a major role in the outcome. A spread race in the Friday Pick 4.
The Bomb
Quality Rocks ran a winning race in an oddly run Jessamine last out in her first start for Mott. With another few weeks under his tutelage she could prove to be dangerous at a price that should be in the neighborhood of 15-1.
BC - Distaff Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com
Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Purse: $2,000,000
Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up (Fillies & Mares)
Date: Friday, October 31st
Time: 7:35 p.m. EDT
The History
In what could be considered the most memorable moment in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, Personal Ensign gunned down Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors in THE final stride of the 1988 running at Churchill Downs. Bayakoa won back to back runnings the following two years. Inside Information won it in 1995 by 13½ lengths, the largest winning margin in Breeders’ Cup history. Before tackling the boys twice, Zenyatta graced this race with her presence when she won it in 2008. Royal Delta won her second consecutive running in 2012 before failing in her attempt to three-peat in 2013 when 2012 Juvenile Fillies champ Beholder became the first winner of a juvenile event to win another Breeders’ Cup race.
Favorites: 13 for 30 (42%)
Shortest: $2.80 (Life’s Magic Entry, 1985)
Highest: $113.80 (Spain, 2000)
The champ is here? No. Unfortunately Beholder is on the sidelines.
The Scenario
Front Runners: Belle Gallantey, Close Hatches, Iotapa, Tiz Midnight
Mid-pack: L’Amour de Ma Vie, Ria Antonia, Untapable, Valiant Emilia
Closers: Don’t Tell Sophia, Stanwyck, Unbridled Forever
The Best
Beholder was being pointed to a Distaff defense but has unfortunately been forced to the sidelines after spiking a high fever a couple of weekends ago. Her affinity for the surface would have made her the likely favorite in here, a role that will now go to either Untapable or Close Hatches.
Untapable has almost assuredly locked up a three-year-old filly championship for Steve Asmussen and now returns to the place of her most disappointing effort as she finished far back after encountering a spill in last years’ Juvenile Fillies. She finished her juvenile season with a third place finish in the G1 Hollywood Starlet.
This year, Untapable has been nearly unbeatable, with her lone defeat coming against the boys in the G1 Haskell at Monmouth on a day where she didn’t look like herself from the start. Against fillies, she’s a perfect five for five this year, including three G1 wins in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs, Mother Goose at Belmont and Cotillion at Parx. Last out in the Cotillion, Untapable overcame a bit of a speed bias to win by a workmanlike length.
As for Close Hatches, no one really knows what happened last out when she flopped spectacularly in the G1 Spinster at Keeneland as the 1-5 favorite. What we do know is she was undefeated in four starts this year prior to that and sports victories in the G2 Azeri and G1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn, G1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont and the G1 Personal Ensign over the mud at Saratoga.
The Ogden Phipps was a reunion of sorts, as the big three from the Distaff last year – Beholder, Princess of Sylmar and Close Hatches – duked it out once again, with Close Hatches holding off Princess of Sylmar by a head. Like Untapable, Close Hatches has year-end division honors locked up as she will be the older filly and mare champ but likely lost any chance at Horse of the Year with that Spinster debacle.
The Phipps also featured a sneaky good performance by Belle Gallantey. Claimed in her last start of 2013 by Rudy Rodriguez for $35K, Belle Gallantey won three straight against much lesser on the front end before being taken off the pace in the Phipps where she was beaten less than two lengths.
Belle Gallantey went back to her speedy self in the G1 Delaware Handicap, upsetting Princess of Sylmar with a wire-to-wire score by almost three lengths. Off the board in the Personal Ensign when taken off the pace, she went right to the top last out in the G1 Beldame at Belmont and romped, winning by over eight lengths.
With Beholder out, Iotapa is California’s best hope to keep the Distaff title out west. Trained by John Sadler, Iotapa has won three of seven starts this year. She won the G2 Santa Maria in her second start of the season and scored in back to back G1 races, the Vanity, also at Santa Anita and the Clement Hirsch over the Del Mar Polytrack.
Last out in the G1 Zenyatta, her first start in eight weeks, Iotapa broke a tad slow but got up late to get the show dough, four lengths behind Beholder. It’s worth noting that Iotapa has improved in her second start off of layoffs on three separate occasions throughout her career.
The Rest
Don’t Tell Sophia, purchased for just $1,000 by her connections, capitalized on Close Hatches’ toe stub by closing from far back to take the Spinster last out. On the season, she has won four of five including three minor stakes with her lone defeat coming in the Azeri where she was third for trainer and part-owner Phil Sims.
Bob Baffert sends out Tiz Midnight, the filly who gave Beholder all she could handle in the Zenyatta last out. Tiz Midnight rode a three race win streak against lesser into the Zenyatta, her graded stakes debut, and tried to take them gate-to-wire but gave way grudgingly through the stretch to miss by under a length.
Ria Antonia won the Juvenile Fillies via a controversial DQ of She’s a Tiger last year but is winless in her eight starts since. She’s changed trainers three times this season and now resides in the barn of Tom Amoss. She pressed Close Hatches in the Spinster last out when Amoss but the blinkers back on and while Close hatches faded through the lane this filly held on gamely to hold place.
Stanwyck is winless in seven starts this year since closing out 2013 with a win in the G3 Turnback the Alarm at Belmont. To her credit, she has been second in the G3 Shuvee and third in the Santa Maria, G1 Santa Margarita, G1 Apple Blossom and Personal Ensign for trainer John Shirreffs.
Unbridled Forever has hit the board in five of her last six against some of the top sophomore fillies in the land for Dallas Stewart. Second in the G1 CCA Oaks behind Stopchargingmaria and last out in the G2 Indiana Oaks when she made the lead a bit too soon, she was also third behind Untapable in both the Kentucky Oaks and G2 Fair Grounds Oaks as well as the G1 Acorn at Belmont.
L’Amour de Ma Vie ships over from Europe for Pia Brandt and is in search of her first G1 win. Just one for six this year and three for 13 overall in her career, L’Amour de Ma Vie won the G2 District One in Dubai this past winter but is winless in her four starts since.
Valiant Emilia is a Win and You’re In challenge winner in her native Peru for her trainer Juan Suarez. She’s won four of six starts this year and 11 of 23 overall in her career including a G3 last out and has California’s leading rider Rafael Bejarano in the saddle.
The Strategy
The two biggest questions that need to be answered are these: is Untapable over the top and a shell of what she was earlier in the year and are you willing to draw a line through the Spinster and forgive Close Hatches for that performance. I don’t know the answer to the first question but I am forgiving Close Hatches. I think she works out the right trip.
The Bomb
There should be plenty of pace on in here so I think a closer like Stanwyck who likes the track, distance and almost always seems to grab a piece of the pie, can do just that at 15-1 or better.
Breeders’ Cup Friday Selections
By J. Keeler Johnson
Bloodhorse.com
There’s no putting it off now—it’s decision time!
Tomorrow afternoon, four of the thirteen races that comprise the 31st Breeders’ Cup will be run at Santa Anita Park. After more than a week of analyzing the pre-entries and final entries and post positions, it’s time to turn all of that handicapping data and all of our opinions into actual, clear-cut selections for the races. That’s easier said than done, but after plenty of consideration, here are my top two choices in each of the Friday Breeders’ Cup races, along with a live longshot to spruce up the exotics!
JUVENILE TURF
Top Selection: European-based runners have dominated this race, winning five of the seven renewals and three in a row since 2011, so although the American colts look strong this year, I’m going to side with Aktabantay for the top spot. The capable colt demonstrated excellent turn-of-foot when winning a six-furlong allowance race at Newcastle, and proved himself capable of traversing a fairly tight turn when rallying for a nose triumph in the group III Solario Stakes at Sandown. Most recently, he finished a close sixth in the group I Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Fr-I), beaten just 2 ½ lengths despite lacking room to rally in the homestretch and having to shift outside for racing room.
Second Choice: Any horse that Aidan O’Brien sends for this race must be respected, and War Envoy figures to have a strong chance. He’s clearly a well-regarded colt, having competed in five consecutive group stakes races in England and Ireland, and he finished ahead of Aktabantay when fifth in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. My main concern is that he has almost no experience on racetracks with turns, and at a morning line price of 9-2, he will likely offer much less value than 12-1 shot Aktabantay.
Live Longshot: The American colt Startup Nation was very impressive winning the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) at Saratoga this summer, and while he could only manage a fourth-place finish in the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III) at Belmont, he was matching strides with eventual winner Imperia before losing momentum in traffic. His short racing record suggests that he may be better racing outside of horses, so starting from post ten, I think we’ll see him return to his With Anticipation form and come running for a top-three finish.
DIRT MILE
Top Selection: Last year’s Dirt Mile winner Goldencents has drawn the rail, which should be a major advantage as long as the front-running colt breaks alertly. In terms of Beyer speed figures, he’s a standout in this field, and although his odds will be unappealing, I think he’s the most likely winner of the entire Breeders’ Cup and will be singling him in my pick four ticket.
Second Choice: Tapiture has maintained good form throughout the year and enters the Dirt Mile off a solid runner-up effort in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II), in which he closed well over a speed-favoring track. The cutback in distance to a two-turn mile should aid his chances, and in the event that Goldencents runs into trouble, I think Tapiture is more than capable of pulling an upset at around 5-1. I’ll likely single him on a second, smaller pick four ticket just in case he fires off a career-best effort.
Live Longshot: Vicar’s in Trouble is another colt that has been running well in longer races and should enjoy the cutback in distance. He’ll break from post three, and should be able to work out a nice trip stalking Goldencents in the early stages of the race. If the pace is moderate, expect to see him in the mix when they turn for home.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
Top Selection: With the best of the European fillies either unproven on courses with turns (Osaila) or stuck in poor post positions (Qualify, Prize Exhibit), I’m confident that an American filly will emerge victorious in this race. My slight preference is for Partisan Politics, who had no chance when trying to rally behind an extremely slow pace in the Miss Grillo Stakes (gr. III). The final 2 ½ furlongs of that race were run in the amazing time of :27.64 seconds, making it virtually impossible for a closer to get involved for the top spot. Throw in the fact that Partisan Politics was trying to rally through traffic and it’s really amazing that she managed to finish fourth. She’ll break from the rail on Friday, and I hope to see her save ground behind a quicker pace, find a seam turning for home, and out-kick her rivals in the homestretch.
Second Choice: Lady Eli won the Miss Grillo by three lengths with an impressive turn-of-foot, but did so after tracking the slow pace that compromised Partisan Politics. I definitely wouldn’t leave her off any multi-race wagers, but I think she’s beatable at a fairly short price.
Live Longshot: Time will tell if she stays a longshot, but Rainha Da Bateria (12-1) made a nice impression winning the Jessamine Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland with a six-wide run. True, she was no match for Partisan Politics in the P. G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga, but that was after being forced extremely wide on the first turn and nearly as wide on the second. I like her chances, especially with Joel Rosario in the saddle.
DISTAFF
Top Selection: This is a race that has befuddled me since Beholder dropped out with an illness, and it remains confusing even as I write this blog post. In the end, I finally settled on Belle Gallantey. Although her two biggest victories have come in gate-to-wire fashion, I’m confident that she can be just as successful stalking the pace, and drawing right outside fellow speedsters Tiz Midnight and Iotapa should enable her to go to the lead if the pace is slow or sit back if the pace is hot. I think she’s got a very live chance.
Second Choice: Untapable ran well to overcome a speed-favoring track last time out in the Cotillion Stakes (gr. I), and has been training at Santa Anita for weeks in advance in this race. Drawing post ten is a concern, as she could find herself hung wide on the turns, but assuming the track plays fairly, she should come running to at least hit the board.
Live Longshot: Iotapa was spectacular in winning the Vanity Handicap (gr. I) this summer, but bled when third in the Zenyatta Stakes (gr. I) last time out. She has trained well since then and seems poised to rebound, and has enough tactical speed to set the pace or stalk if necessary. She’s 6-1 on the morning line, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see her go off at higher than that.
I should also take a moment to mention Close Hatches. I have a lot of respect for this filly, and would be happy to see her run well, but she will be facing a stiff challenge this Friday. After all, she has been in peak form since early last year, and her fourth-place finish in the Spinster (gr. I) last time out may be signaling a decline. Furthermore, drawing the far outside post position is going to make it difficult for her to work out a good trip. She can certainly win this race, but I’m going to take a stand against her under the circumstances.
Friday Breeders' Cup Preview
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com
Finding the Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner could come down to properly ascertaining the form of Close Hatches, the second-betting choice in the race.
On her best, Close Hatches would be playable at her morning line of 3-to-1. The four-year-old filly was second in the 2013 Distaff at Santa Anita, which hosts the Breeders’ Cup yet again this year. From April to August, Close Hatches won three Grade 1 races in a row, with the last a five-length win at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Distaff in the Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga. In victory, Close Hatches posted a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 103.
However, Close Hatches disappointed in final race before the Distaff, finishing fourth, beaten 7.5 lengths, as the 1-to-5 favorite in the Spinster at Keeneland. If her Spinster was just a blip on the radar screen and no indicator of declining form, Close Hatches can give potential Distaff favorite Untapable all she handle in Friday’s Distaff (Race 9, 7:35 p.m. ET, NBCSN), which will be contested on the main track. But if Close Hatches has lost her fastball, she's unlikely to win and might not even hit the board.
Untapable (5-to-2) isn't without a few question marks, too. A three-time Grade 1 winner, the three-year-old Untapable has yet to face older horses. Also, she hasn’t hit 100 on the Beyer scale since her Kentucky Oaks romp. However, Untapable’s spring form might have been as good as any three-year-old in the country, and if she runs back to her Oaks (107 Beyer), she could be very tough.
There are a handful of other viable contenders beyond the top two. Don’t Tell Sophia (5-to-1) upset Close Hatches in the Distaff, but she recorded a light Beyer of 94. However, she has not run a bad race all year, and she will be closing into a strong pace.
Iotapa and Belle Gallantey both hold some appeal at 6-to-1. Iotapa romped in the Grade 1 1 1/8-mile Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Santa Anita in May, posting a 109 Beyer, the best number any horse in the field has run at any distance. In her last race, Iotapa was a disappointing third in the Grade 1 Zenyatta Stakes in late September, but she did not break well. She will be laying close to the pace on Friday.
Belle Gallantey has risen from low-level claimer to two-time Grade 1 winner. She rolled to an 8 1/4-length win in the Beldame Invitational Stakes at Belmont in September, recording a career-top 103 Beyer.
Belle Gallantey figures to be sent for the early lead, as will Bob Baffert’s Tiz Midnight (10-to-1), an intriguing lower-priced competitor off her second-place finish to defending Distaff-champion Beholder in the Zenyatta. (Beholder – who would have been favored to repeat on Friday – is out because of a fever.)
Both Belle Gallantey and Tiz Midnight do their best running on the lead, which could set up a test of wills. Tiz Midnight is a little quicker and could get clear, but how much work will that take?
The guess here is that Tiz Midnight leads at the top of the stretch, with Iotapa and Untapable in close pursuit and Close Hatches launching her bid from a little farther back than usual. And in the lane, Untapable will overhaul the leader and have enough to hold on.
Here’s a thumbnail sketch of Friday’s other Breeders’ Cup races. All races will air on NBCSN:
Race 6
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (two-year-old colts and geldings)
One mile
Post time: 5:25 p.m. ET
American colt Hootenanny (3-to-1) could go favored on the basis of his European form, including his second in the Group 1 Darley Prix Morny in France in August. The performance earned a Racing Post Rating of 116, best in the field. However, Imperia (6-to-1) is another American with a big chance off his win in the Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont in September.
As always, the Europeans must be respected. Commemorative (6-to-1) has won twice at a mile. War Envoy (9-to-2) has been knocking on the door in group-stakes company for legendary trainer Aidan O’Brien. The wild card, however, is Wet Sail (15-to-1), who was third in a 23-horse field last out after a nice-looking maiden score.
Race 7
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (horses three years old and up)
One mile
Post time: 6:05 p.m. ET
Defending champion Goldencents (6-to-5) will be heavily favored to defend his title in this race, and many expect him to lead from gate-to-wire. However, Goldencents is just 1-for-4 this season, and he comes off a nose defeat in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship in September.
From this vantage point, there’s three primary ways the Mile could go:
Goldencents goes to the lead and airs like last year.
Goldencents holds the lead well into the stretch, but a horse sitting right off the pace or in mid-pack catches him in the lane.
Goldencents holds off those pressing him for the lead, but a contested pace ensues, dooming Goldencents and those close to him, and a late-runner from well back swoops up to win.
I'll take Door No. 2, and I'll side with Pants On Fire (6-to-1), who has the tactical speed to stay somewhat close and can launch a run at the leader on the turn.
Race 8
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (two-year-old fillies)
One mile
Post time: 6:50 p.m. ET
What a compelling race. Favored Sunset Glow (7-to-2) is a Grade 1 winner with loads of talent. However, there are so many other intriguing alternatives. Osaila (5-to-1; best Racing Post Rating: 108) and Qualify (5-to-1; best Racing Post Rating: 105) are two Europeans to watch.
But don’t overlook these Americans: Isabella Sings (12-to-1), Quality Rocks (20-to-1) and Lady Eli (6-to-1). Isabella Sings and Quality Rocks have the speed and stamina to work out good trips on or near the lead. However, Lady Eli’s turn of foot is something else. If she has room to roll, she could prove best of all.
At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
SA Race 6 The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf G1
11 Imperia 6-1
7 War Envoy 9-2
4 Commemorative 8-1
5 Hootenanny 3-1
Analysis: Imperia gets the call and would be just the third U.S. based juvie to win this race which has been dominated by Euros, Aiden O'Brien and John Gosden each saddling a pair of winners. Our top pick made a good late rally to miss breaking his maiden in his debut by a neck and then came back to win the Pilgrim (G3) at Belmont Park in a good looking effort. The runner up Vision Perfect came out of the race to win the Awad Stakes in his next outing at Belmont Park on Oct. 26. This colt has a nice pedigree, by Medaglia d'Oro out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Cocoa Beach, who could run on turf or dirt. He is in good hands with the McLaughlin barn that has a pair of Breeders' Cup wins with 29 starters. The Euros are going to take the betting action and this guy may end up getting overlooked in the wagering.
War Envoy is sent out by O'Brien who won this race in 2011 with Wrote and 2012 with George Vancouver, both coming to the U.S off losses. The colt is just 1 for 7 in his career but landed in the money in a couple of Group 2 races and a Group 3 and was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths in the Grand Criterium (G1) when fifth in his last outing. He adds lasix to the mix here and we have seen the Euros win all four times this race has been run here.
Commemorative makes his U.S. debut here for trainer Charles Hill, who shipped Chriselliam here last year to win the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). The colt broke his maiden in a 17 horse field at Doncaster and then won the Autumn Stakes (G3) going a mile over good ground at Newmarket in his last outing. He has the look of a typical Euro invader who seems to like firm footing. I doubt he goes off near his 8-1 morning line, have a hunch this guy will take some action.
Wagering
WIN: #11 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 7,11 / 4,5,7,11
TRI: 7,11 / 4,5,7,11 / 4,5,6,7,11
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.