Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 1

Filly & Mare Turf Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Filly & Mare Turf Preview

Distance: 1¼ miles (T)
Purse: $2,000,000
Age: 3-Years-Old and Up(Fillies & Mares)
Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
Time: 3:43 p.m. EDT

The History

Ouija Board won it in 2004 and 2006 and was stopped by Intercontinental in 2005 when she was second. Her trainer Ed Dunlop and the late Bobby Frankel each won two runnings while Kieran Fallon and Jerry Bailey have each ridden a pair of winners.

Favorites: 5 for 15 (33%)
Shortest: $3.80 (Ouija Board, 2004)
Highest: $94.00 (Shared Account, 2010)
U.S based: 9/Foreign based: 6
The champ is here? Yes. Dank is looking to become the first back-to-back winner of this event.

The Scenario

Front Runners: Dayatthespa, Secret Gesture
Mid-pack: Dank, Emollient, Fiesolana, Irish Mission, Just the Judge
Closers: Abaco, Parranda, Rusty Slipper, Stephanie’s Kitten

The Best

Dank will look to join Ouija Board as the only other two time winner of the event when she takes on a full field in search of the repeat. Her presence did little to scare the competition away as 17 horses were pre-entered with 14 allowed to run.

Perhaps the lack of fear on the part of opposing connections is from the limited and disappointing form Dank brings into to this years’ renewal as opposed to last year when she won three graded stakes, including the G1 Beverly D at Arlington, before her Cup score. A third place finish in the G1 Dubai Duty Free in March and the G1 Prince of Wales where she finished fifth, both against the boys, are her lone two starts of the year for trainer Sir Michael Stoute. She’s kept company with the likes of Just a Way, The Fugue, Magician and Treve but is nowhere near the mare she was coming into this as she was last year, on paper, anyway.

After contemplating a run in the Mile, trainer Willie McCreery has decided to run G1 Matron Stakes winner and fellow Euro Fiesolana in here instead. Her Matron score is her lone win from six tries this season and she will be trying a distance of more than a mile for the first time in well over two seasons.

Just the Judge was third in two of her three starts in Europe before turning it on upon her U.S. arrival for Charles Hills with a solid third place finish in the G1 Beverly D and a G1 E P Taylor tally at Woodbine last out. She’ll be running off less than two weeks rest.

Stephanie’s Kitten may be America’s best hope in here as she finally found the winners’ circle for the first time in over a year when she kicked home strongly to win the G1 Flower Bowl last her, her first win in five starts this year. After a pair of inexplicable sub-par performances, Stephanie’s Kitten showed signs of regaining her old form with runner-up finishes in both the G1 Diana and Beverly D prior to her latest effort for Chad Brown.

The Rest

Brown’s other entrant, Dayatthespa, comes in off a New York bred stakes win and a powerful score in the G1 First Lady at Keeneland last out where she avenged her narrow defeat from last season. This will be her first start at the distance and has never raced at a distance beyond nine furlongs.

Emollient set the pace in this event as a three-year-old last season before eventually fading to fourth while beaten just a length. She won for the first time in six starts this season in her third trip out west when she got up to take the G1 Rodeo Drive at this trip over this course when trainer Bill Mott added blinkers for the first time.

Abaco won the G2 Ballston Spa two back before a second place finish in the Flower Bowl last out for Shug McGaughey. Parranda was second in both the G2 Yellow Ribbon and Rodeo Drive for Jerry Hollendorfer and has won three graded stakes against a bit lesser company earlier this year.

Ralph Beckett’s Secret Gesture is the final Euro contender. She has hit the board in all four starts of the year and won a minor stakes three starts back. Irish Mission dead-heated for third in the Rodeo Drive after taking the Glens Falls at Saratoga for trainer Christophe Clement. Graham Motion’s Rusty Slipper was the other half of the Rodeo Drive show dead-heat and won the G3 Violet at Monmouth earlier this year.

The Strategy

I’m interested to see who the betting public anoints the favorite in here because I have no clue. This is usually one of my favorite events of the Breeders’ Cup but I’m not over the moon about this edition. If Dayatthespa can get loose from Secret Gesture she may be able to take these gate-to-wire despite the fact that she has never been this far.

The Bomb

Irish Mission is from a top turf barn, is in the best form of her life, loves running long and always seems to fire. At 15-1 or higher she is certainly worth a flyer.

Filly & Mare Sprint Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Filly & Mare Sprint Preview

Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $1,000,000
Age: Fillies and Mares, 3-Year-Olds and Up
Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
Time: 4:21 p.m. EDT

The History

Run at six furlongs in 2007 because Monmouth Park isn’t configured for the intended distance. Groupie Doll became the first back to back winner in 2013.

Favorites: 2 for 7 (29%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Groupie Doll, 2012)
Highest: $42.40 (Musical Romance, 2011)
The champ is here? No. Two-time winner Groupie Doll retired earlier this year.

The Scenario

Front Runners: Midnight Lucky, Stonetastic
Mid-pack: Artemis Agrotera, Judy the Beauty, Leigh Court, Southern Honey
Closers: Better Lucky, Little Alexis, Living the Life, Sweet Reason, Thank You Marylou

The Best

At post time, the New York bred Artemis Agrotera figures to be the favorite as she rides a three race win streak into this for trainer Mike Hushion.

Hushion sent this filly west last year when she was undefeated in two starts and already a G1 winner but she reportedly trained miserably and was off the board in the Juvenile Fillies. This year, she was ambitiously placed in the G1 Acorn for her first start off of a seven month rest and was trounced before winning a confidence building allowance contest at Saratoga against statebreds. A blowout score in the G1 Ballerina at this trip followed before she beat win machine La Verdad on the wire in a workmanlike performance in the G2 Gallant Bloom.

One trainer who doesn’t have to worry about heading out west is Bob Baffert, who’ll send out the highly talented yet delicate Midnight Lucky in here. She’s raced just five times in her career, with her lone defeat coming in the G1 Kentucky Oaks last season when she was embroiled in a pace battle from the start. Her other four efforts have been flawless, with daylight scores in last year’s Acorn and the G1 Humana Distaff at Churchill on Derby Day last out. Her problem has been staying on the racetrack as she won last out off of an 11 month layoff and will be making her first start in nearly six months in this.

Judy the Beauty missed by just a half-length in last year’s renewal and has had a pretty solid season to date for Wesley Ward. She won the G3 Las Flores to start the year, her only other try over this surface before taking the G1 Madison and G3 rancho Bernardo last out over the Polytracks at Keeneland and Del Mar. Her lone defeat this year came in the Humana.

Sweet Reason will cut back to one turn for trainer Leah Gyarmati off of a second place finish to likely three-year-old filly champ Untapable in the G1 Cotillion going 1 1/16 miles last out. In her two starts going this trip, Sweet Reason won the G1 Spinaway as a juvenile and G1 Test two starts back, both at Saratoga. Sweet Reason also won the Acorn going a mile earlier this year.

The Rest

Better Lucky won both of her G1 races on the turf but does own three wins on the dirt in her career, including a minor stakes at Saratoga three starts back for Tom Albertrani, who also pre-entered her in the Mile (first preference) where she sits seventh on the alternates list. Little Alexis won the first two starts of her career at Gulfstream before missing by just a length when third in the Test after finding some trouble at the start and finishing fourth in the Cotillion for Donna Green.

Leigh Court was able to transfer her impressive synthetic track form to the dirt last out when she rolled home to win the G2 TCA at Keeneland over their new dirt surface. This will be her third start off of a ten month layoff for Josie Carroll. Gary Mandella is hoping Living the Life will follow Leigh Court’s lead as his filly is a perfect two for two over synthetic courses here in the U.S. and will be making her conventional dirt debut.

Rusty Arnold’s Southern Honey was an even second in the TCA last out and won the G3 Winning Colors earlier this year. Stonetastic tired to third in the TCA after getting caught up in a blistering early speed duel. She won the G2 Prioress at Saratoga two back for trainer Kelly Breen. Thank You Marylou was a non-threatening third in the G2 Raven Run at Keeneland and will be coming back off of just two weeks rest for Mike Maker. She won a minor stakes at Gulfstream and the G3 Dogwood earlier this year at this distance.

The Strategy

Plainly and simply, Midnight Lucky is easily the most talented horse in the race but she is fragile. Some people aren’t comfortable betting horses with as many layoff lines as she has in her PPs. If you’re one of them, I suggest you go on the hunt and try to find a nice price in here because I’m not sold on Artemis Agrotera. If long layoffs don’t bother you, look no further.

The Bomb

If you throw out the Cotillion, like I am going to, Little Alexis should benefit from the fast pace Stonetastic will assure in here. At 15-1 or higher I think Little Alexis is worth a flyer.

Turf Sprint Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Turf Sprint Preview

Distance: 6½ furlongs (T)
Purse: $1,000,000
Age: 3-Year-Old and Up
Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
Time: 5:05 p.m. EDT

The History

Run down the hill going 6 ½ furlongs in its first two runnings before going to this distance in 2011. Mizdirection became the first female to win the event in 2012 and first to repeat in 2013, when there was a dead-heat for second between Tightend Touchdown and Reneesgotzip.

Favorites: 3 for 6 (50%)
Shortest: $6.60 (Regally Ready, 2011)
Highest: $75.00 (Desert Code, 2008)
U.S based: 6/Foreign based: 0
The champ is here? No. Mizdirection, winner of the last two runnings of this event has been retired.

The Scenario

Front Runners: No Nay Never, Reneesgotzip, Something Extra
Mid-pack: Bobby’s Kitten, Marchman, Sweet Swap, Tightend Touchdown, Za Approval
Closers: Ageless, Ambitious Brew, Caspar Netscher, Dimension, Free as a Bird, Home Run Kitten, Silentio, Undrafted

The Best

While Mizdirection has been retired and won’t be going for the Goldikova-like three-peat, fellow filly Reneesgotzip and Tightend Touchdown, who dead-heated for place in last years’ event, are among the record 29 pre-entries for the race this year and figure to play a big role in this donnybrook.

Also third in the 2012 Turf Sprint, Reneesgotzip has raced just twice since missing by a half-length in this last year. A third place finish in the G3 Rancho Bernardo to the talented Judy the Beauty was followed by a romp in a restricted stakes, both over the Polytrack at Del Mar for trainer Peter Miller.

Tightend Touchdown has won just one of his four starts since this event last year, a minor stakes at Penn National, for trainer Jason Servis but did finish second by a nose to mid-Atlantic stalwart Ben’s Cat in the G3 Parx Dash before rallying for third in the G3 Turf Monster, also at Parx, last time out. It’s worth noting that Tightend Touchdown has had ample time between starts this year and will be running off of nearly a two month layoff.

Sophomore colt No Nay Never has had a brief yet interesting five race career. As a juvenile, he broke his maiden at first asking at Keeneland before winning the G2 Norfolk at the prestigious Royal Ascot meeting in England and the G1 Prix Morny at Deauville in France. This year, he was second in the G2 Swale back in March before returning from a seven month layoff to wire the G3 Woodford over the turf at Keeneland to run his record over the lawn to a perfect 3 for 3.

Trainer Wesley Ward will send out No Nay Never as well as Undrafted. Just one for six on the season, his win came at Belmont in the G3 Jaipur. He was second in the G3 Turf Sprint at Keeneland, fourth in the highly regarded G1 July Cup at Newmarket this summer and third last out in the Kentucky Downs Turf Dash.

Marchman has put together a solid season for Keith Desormeaux, one that has included wins in the G2 Shakertown at Keeneland and next out in the Turf Sprint over Undrafted. Though winless in three starts since, was second in the Jaipur and third in that three horse photo in the Parx Dash. Last out he was sixth in Woodford, his first start in nearly three months.

The Rest

Bobby’s Kitten cuts back to a sprint for the first time in his career for trainer Chad Brown. Bobby’s Kitten and his connections actually started this season with Kentucky Derby aspirations but he’s made it abundantly clear that his home in on the turf, as evident by his score in the Penn Mile back in late May. Last out he tired to third after setting the pace in the G1 Woodbine Mile, his first start against older horses.

Another cutback in here is Silentio. Third to the great Wise Dan in the Mile last year, Silentio came back to win the G2 Citation later that month but is winless in four starts this year, including a third place finish in the G2 Pat O’Brien over the Polytrack at Del Mar in a race won by Goldencents. Now, trainer Gary Mandella will see if turf sprinting will turn him around.

The mare Free as a Bird has found a home in turf sprints and will look to follow in Mizdirection’s hoof prints. Trained by Ian Wilkes, Free as a Bird has won five in a row, all stakes against fillies and mares.

Dimension got up by a neck to win the Kentucky Downs Turf Dash last out after breaking slowly, his first win in over a year for trainer Conor Murphy. Euro import Caspar Netscher was winless in nine starts in 2013 and 2014 then added Lasix for the G2 Nearctic at Woodbine last out and exploded through the lane to win for David Simcock. Something Extra was third in the Shakertown to start the season then won the G2 Highlander at Woodbine in early summer for Gail Cox.

Home Run Kitten is perfect in two starts down the hill for trainer David Hofmans after rallying from far back to win the G3 Eddie D last out. Sweet Swap has won half of his eight starts, including the G3 San Simeon when he was last seen for John Sadler in April, at this trip while Ambitious Brew, second by a nose in the Eddie D, has won four of his six starts at the trip with a pair of second place finishes. He’s trained by Martin Jones.

The two on the also eligible list are Ageless and Za Approval. Ageless was hard charging second at Keeneland to Free as a Bird last out and won three in a row earlier in the year, including the G3 Royal North at Woodbine for Arnaud Delacour. Za Approval was second to the great Wise Dan in the Mile last year and won for the first time in five tries since when trainer Christophe Clement cut him back to a sprint last out.

The Strategy

Absolutely nothing would surprise me in this event but I think I feel that way every year. I think the Californians with extensive experience over the downhill course have a slight advantage over those that have little or no tries over it but I don’t think it’s enough of a deal-breaker if you have a strong opinion on a shipper. However you look at it, it’s an automatic spread race in multi-race exotics.

The Bomb

Silentio has a ton of turf ability, gets a touch of class relief and now should get a favorable pace scenario. In a wide open event, he’s worth a shot at 15-1 or so.

Juvenile Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Juvenile Preview

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2,000,000
Age: 2-Year-Old
Date: Saturday, Nov.1
Time: 5:43 p.m. EDT

The History

Is It True upset the great Easy Goer in 1988. Unbridled’s Song out-dueled Hennessy to win the 1995 running in just his third start. Johannesburg shipped in from across the pond and halted Officer’s winning streak in 2001. Street Sense took the first step in breaking the Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx by winning it in 2006. And of course, Arazi put on his amazing display in the 1991 renewal at Churchill.

Favorites: 11 for 30 (36%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Chief’s Crown, 1984)
Highest: $63.20 (Vale of York, 2009)

The Best

Likely favorite American Pharoah debuted with blinkers against the impressive Om as the 7-5 favorite and finished a tiring fifth. Bob Baffert took the blinkers off and placed him ambitiously in the G1 Del Mar Futurity. American Pharoah rewarded Baffert’s confidence with a gate-to-wire thrashing of eight others by almost five lengths. He stretched out to this distance in the G1 Front Runner and won just as handily by over three lengths.

Todd Pletcher sends out a pair of colts that are two for two back east in Daredevil and Carpe Diem. Daredevil caught a muddy track in his debut, went immediately to the front and blazed six furlongs in a sharp 1:09 4/5. Last out in the G1 Champagne, Daredevil switched tactics and sat just off the early pace before coasting home by a measured two and a half lengths over a sloppy track, once again at Belmont.

Carpe Diem scorched right others in his Saratoga debut going five and a half furlongs on the front end then shipped to Keeneland, stretched out to this trip and two turns AND switched tactics by rating off the pace to dust a field of ten by six and a half lengths in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity.

The Rest

Upstart won the first two starts of his career, nine days apart, at Saratoga against New York breds, one maiden race and one stakes, before finishing second in the Champagne despite a wide trip in his last for Rick Violette.

Baffert will also send out One Lucky Dane in the Juvenile. Third to Om in his debut, One Lucky Dane was second at a mile next out before rolling home by almost 10 lengths going a mile over this strip, his first try on conventional dirt.

The Great War is scheduled to make his main track debut and first start past six and a half furlongs for Aidan O’ Brien and Coolmore having won three of his seven starts on turf in Europe. It’s worth noting that all of his races have been run on straightaway courses so he’ll have to negotiate turns for the first time as well as the dirt.

Steve Asmussen’s Lucky Player gutted out a neck victory in the G3 Iroquois at Churchill last out after just missing by the same margin when second in a minor stakes at Prairie Meadows that was won by Private Prospect, a Michael Campbell trainee that was claimed in his debut. He won the first three starts of his career before missing by a head in the G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity over the Arlington Polytrack last out.

Souper Colossal has won all three of his starts for Eddie Plesa and they’ve all come at Monmouth Park. A four and a half furlong maiden win was followed by tallies in the off-the-turf Tyro and one mile Sapling last out. This will be his first start in two months. Mr. Z broke his maiden in his debut for D. Wayne Lukas but is winless in four starts since. To his credit, he has finished second in the G3 Sanford, G2 Saratoga Special and Breeders’ Futurity.

Peter Miller trains the maiden Calculator, second in the Front Runner last out in his first dirt start in four career efforts. Texas Red was third in the Front Runner for Keith Desormeaux and broke his maiden two back in his first try around two turns at Del Mar.

O’Brien’s War Envoy and Danny Boy, trained by Dale Romans, are both cross entered (first preference) in the Juvenile Turf and are scheduled to run in that spot. That would open up spots for both Combat Diver, a maiden winner in his dirt debut for Gary Contessa last out and Canadian shipper Blue Dancer, a three time winner, including two stakes from four starts for Greg Tracy north of the border.

The Strategy

Carpe Diem really impressed me last out but I’m honestly having a difficult time separating the three favorites. Keep an eye on the final entries and see how the track is playing before making any final, drastic decisions.

The Bomb

Lucky Player is already a graded stakes winner and had improved dramatically since stretching out to two turns. He’ll probably be 15-1, too!

Turf Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Turf Preview

Distance: 1½ miles (T)
Purse: $3,000,000
Age: 3-Year-Olds & Up
Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
Time: 5:22 p.m. EDT

The History

Pebbles in 1985 and Miss Alleged in 1991 are the only two fillies to have beaten the boys in this. Theatrical finally got the job done in 1987 and more importantly helped forge the Bill Mott/Allen Paulson partnership that would rule the sport for a decade. Kotashaan capped an amazing Horse of the Year season with a win in 1993. High Chaparral won it in 2002, then dead-heated with Johar in 2003, the only dead heat for win in Breeders’ Cup history. Better Talk Now won it in 2004 before failing to do so the next four years. Conduit won consecutive runnings in 2008 and 2009.

Favorites: 9 for 30 (30%)
Shortest: $3.80 (High Chaparral, 2002 and Conduit, 2009)
Highest: $108.80 (Lashkari, 1984)
U.S based: 12/Foreign based: 19
The champ is here? Yes. Magician is back to defend his title.

The Scenario

Front Runners: Imagining, Telescope
Mid-pack: Brown Panther, Flintshire, Hardest Core, Magician, Twilight Eclipse
Closers: Big John B, Chicquita, Finnegans Wake, Hangover Kid, Main Sequence, Starspangled Heat

The Best

In 2011, Aidan O’Brien trained St. Nicholas Abbey to win with his son Joe in the saddle. The pair will look to do so again with defending champion Magician. When Magician won this last year he was coming off of a four month layoff. This year he’ll try to do so off of a runner-up finish in the G1 Arlington Million some 10 weeks ago, his only U.S. start in 2014.

Just one for six this season with his lone tally having come in the G3 Mooresbridge Stakes, Magician finished second in both the G1 Gold Cup and G1 Prince of Wales earlier this year.

Ryan Moore rode Magician to victory last year but will pilot Telescope for Sir Michael Stoute in this renewal, a race Stoute has targeted for this colt for most of the year. Third last out in the G1 Juddmonte International behind the accomplished Australia, Telescope was second in the G1 King George & Queen Elizabeth and galloped home in the G2 Hardwicke in his two prior starts.

Flintshire is winless in his last six starts after winning three of his first four races but has kept solid company in defeat this season. He started the year for the great Andre Fabre with a second place effort in the G1 Coronation Cup behind Cirrus des Aigles and was a strong second when beaten just a couple of lengths by Treve in the G1 Arc de Triomphe in his latest.

Former Euro Main Sequence is a perfect three for three in his U.S. starts and in giving his backers near heart attacks since arriving stateside for a Graham Motion. First, he came from dead last to win the G1 United Nations at Monmouth by a neck. A head victory in the G1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga with another big rally from far back followed. Then, last out in the G1 Turf Classic at Belmont, main Sequence laid a bit closer to a much slower early pace and eventually grinded out a neck victory. He gets a new rider in John Velazquez as regular rider Rajiv Maragh is out with a broken arm.

The Rest

Former claimer Big John B has really made himself at home since arriving in California from the east coast this past summer. He won three straight for Phil D’Amato, including the G2 Del Mar Handicap before finishing third in the 1 ¼ miles G2 John Henry when he ran out of ground. He’s won his lone start at this distance.

Arlington Million winner Hardest Core is a perfect three for three since being purchased by trainer Ed Graham. An allowance win and minor stakes score at Parx and Delaware preceded his stretch running upset of Magician last out in the Million. It’s worth noting that the minor stakes score came at this distance.

Imagining won the G1 Man O’ War for Shug McGaughey in gate-to-wire fashion back in May but tired in both the G1 Sword dancer when second by a head and last out when he settled for third after setting slow fractions in the Turf Classic.

Twilight Eclipse broke the world record for this distance on turf in the 2013 Pan American at Gulfstream Park and won the G2 Mac Diarmada earlier this season. He’s finished second, third and second behind Main Sequence in his last three starts and had a brutal trip in this for Tom Albertrani last season when he finished sixth beaten just over two lengths.

Chicquita will look to join the likes of Pebbles and Miss Alleged, the only two fillies to win the Turf, in 1985 and 1991, respectively, for O’Brien. Third in the British Champions against her own sex, run just two weeks prior to this event, Chicquita was far back in the Arc and is just one for seven in her career having taken the G1 Irish Oaks at this trip in July 2013. Fellow Euro Brown Panther cuts back in distance for Tom Dascombe having won the G1 Irish St Leger going 1 ¾ miles by over six lengths last out.

New York bred Hangover Kid won an open company stakes for the first time two starts back when he got up late in the G2 Bowling Green for Jason Servis. He was a non-threatening fifth in the Turf Classic last out. Finnegans Wake closed from far back to get the place money in the John henry in his first start for Peter Miller. He won the G3 Arlington Handicap earlier this year but has just three wins from 23 starts in his career. Starspangled Heat was third in a restricted stakes this past Saturday, hasn’t won in seven starts since an optional claimer win in October 2013 and will be making his first start at this level for trainer Barry Abrams.

The Strategy

When I guy like Stoute says he’s pointing a horse for this race my ears perk up, meaning Telescope is a must use. I have issue with Main Sequence because those cardiac kids need to be ridden a certain way and he won’t have the luxury of his regular rider, though Johnny V is one of the all-time greats. The other Euros look tough as well. I’m all over the place in here.

The Bomb

I think Big John B has a chance to upset this and I love his morning line of 20-1. If he’s anywhere close to that price a token win bet is an absolute must.

Sprint Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Sprint Preview

Distance: 6 furlongs
Purse: $1,500,000
Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up
Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
Time: 7:01 p.m. EDT

The History

Dayjur was home free in 1990 before famously jumping a shadow at Belmont Park and allowing Safely Kept to become one of three fillies to win this. Thirty Slews won the 1992 running, introducing the world to a then unknown trainer by the name of Bob Baffert. Kona Gold ran in the Sprint five times, grabbing the brass ring just once in 2000. Midnight Lute won back to back races in 2007 and 2008, while Secret Circle’s win in 2013 gave Baffert four wins in the event.

Favorites: 7 for 30 (23%)
Shortest: $4.60 (Ellio, 1984)
Highest: $54.60 (Sheikh Albadou, 1991)
The champ is here? Yes. Secret Circle is back to try and win his second Sprint and third Breeders’ Cup race overall having won the now defunct Juvenile Sprint in 2011.

The Scenario

Front Runners: Bakken, Big Macher, Fast Anna, Indexical, Private Zone, Seeking the Sherif, Work All Week
Mid-pack: Bahamian Squall, Bourbon Courage, Indianapolis, Palace, Rich Tapestry, Secret Circle, Wind Fire
Closers: Mico Margarita, Salutos Amigos

The Best

Secret Circle is looking to make some history should he defend his Sprint title as he’d become the only other horse besides the great miler Goldikova to win three B.C. races.

Like last season, when he prepped just once in 18 months before getting up by a neck in the final strides, Secret Circle has had another light campaign for Baffert having raced just twice since this event last year. He missed by a neck in the G2 Palos Verdes in early February before an eight month layoff and third place finish in the G1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship last out.

Hong Kong’s Rich Tapestry shipped in for trainer C.W. Chang to win the Santa Anita Sprint Championship by a nose last out in his first U.S. start. He is a perfect three for three over dirt with a couple of victories at Sha Tin in Hong Kong accounting for his other dirt efforts and is looking to become the first horse based in Hong Kong to win a Breeders’ Cup race.

Palace ships in from New York for Linda Rice in the midst of a strong 2014 in which he won a pair of G1 races at Saratoga, the Vanderbilt at this distance and the Forego at seven panels. In both of those efforts Palace, who failed to fire his best shot when third in the G1 Vosburgh last out, came from a couple of lengths off the pace to score and he’d certainly be one to benefit from a fast early pace. Claimed two years ago for $20K, Palace has won half of his 22 starts and has earned over $1.3 million in his career.

Private Zone made it two Vosburghs in a row last out when he led virtually every step of the way, like he did last year, for Freddy Velasquez in just his second start of the year. Tenth in this last year, Private Zone came back to run a solid second in the G1 Cigar Mile before taking nine months off. In his only other start this year, Private Zone finished fourth in the G3 Turf Monster at Parx.

The Rest

Baffert will also send out the undefeated Indianapolis, a winner of all three of his starts including the San Pedro back in January. In his first start back, Indianapolis won a second level allowance contest going six and a half furlongs by a half-length. It’s worth noting that Baffert worked Secret Circle and Indianapolis in company out of the gate on 10/20 and they covered six furlongs in a sharp 1:10 2/5. It was that work that encouraged Baffert to enter this colt.

Bakken makes a return trip out west having finished a tough trip fifth in the G1 Malibu last year. Prior to the Malibu, Bakken won debut and entry level allowance contests impressively before a five month layoff. He returned for Chad Brown in the G2 True North where he was beaten just under a length by Palace then returned from nearly a four month layoff to take a Belmont allowance contest last out.

Salutos Amigo won the G3 Bold Ruler this past Saturday for David Jacobsen who said moments after the win that B.C. officials told him he could run and was scheduled to fly out on Sunday morning. Salutos Amigos has won half of his eight starts since Jacobsen took over his training earlier this year and has finished third in the True North and G3 Belmont Sprint Championship.

Kellyn Gorder finally cut Bourbon Courage back in distance for the first time in over two years when he won a third level allowance at Keeneland in his last, his first try in four and a half months. Work All Week has won four of five this year, including a pair of minor stakes as well as the G3 Phoenix at Keeneland in his latest, for Roger Bruggermann.

Fast Anna ships I for Kathy Ritvo, who won the Classic with Mucho Macho Man last year, off a pair of second place finishes in the G1 Kings Bishop and G3 Gallant Bob at Saratoga and Parx respectively. Mico Margarita comes in for Steve Asmussen off of a pair of minor stakes scores at Mountaineer and Remington Park and has won five times at this distance.

Big Macher has won three of five this season, including the G1 Bing Crosby over the Del Mar Polytrack for Richard Baltas but flopped miserably in the G2 Pat O’Brien in his latest. Seeking the Sherif won a minor stakes at Los Alamitos last out for Ron Ellis and was third in the Bing Crosby.

European based three-year-old filly Wind Fire has won just three of 13 starts, all on the turf but has plenty of dirt pedigree being by Distorted Humor and out of an A.P. Indy mare for David Brown.

Bahamian Squall, a G2 stakes winner for David Fawkes who was sixth in this event last year and Indexical, a Ben Cecil trained three-year-old eligible for a second level allowance contest, are the two horses on the also eligible list.

The Strategy

I can knock the first four choices but the problem is I don’t fully trust any of this rest. I do think this race will yield some prices so your best bet is to find a few to mess around with. It’s an obvious spread race in multi-race wagers and is a great race for exacta and trifecta boxes and part-wheels.

The Bomb

Bourbon Courage is a perfect two-for-two against much easier going this distance a couple of years ago but he’ll be running late and should certainly have a fast pace to close into.

Mile Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Mile Preview

Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $2,000,000
Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up
Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
Time: 7:40 p.m. EDT

The History

Where should I start?!?! Four horses have won multiple runnings, starting with Miesque beating the boys in 1987 and 1988. The speedy Lure won back to back runnings in 1992 and 1993 before failing to accomplish the three-peat in 1994. Da Hoss, amazingly, won it in 1996, ran once in between then re-rallied in the final strides to win it two years later in 1998. And, of course, Goldikova won three in a row from 2008 through 2010 before finishing third in 2011. In 2012, Wise Dan capped off his Horse of the Year campaign with a popular Mile score over 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and came back to defend his Mile title in 2013. It’s worth noting that Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head has won three and is a five-time Mile winner and the only person to win a Breeders’ Cup race as a trainer and a jockey, as he was the regular rider of Miesque.

Favorites: 11 for 30 (36%)
Shortest: $3.60 (Wise Dan, 2012)
Highest: $131.60 (Court Vision, 1986)
U.S based: 18/Foreign based: 12
The champ is here? No. Unfortunately, two-time Mile winner/Horse of the Year Wise Dan is on the shelf with an ankle injury.

The Scenario

Front Runners: Obviously, Sayaad, Tourist
Mid-pack: Anodin, Grand Arch, Karakontie, Mustajeeb, Toronado, Veda
Closers: Kaigun, Mr. Commons, Seek Again, Summer Front, Tom’s Tribute, Trade Storm

The Best

Perhaps the horse most affected by the absence of Wise Dan is Toronado as his trainer Richard Hannon announced he’d be coming to the Mile the day after Wise Dan’s injury was announced. More than a coincidence one would think. Still, Toronado sports strong form, especially at the distance and will likely be sent to post as the favorite.

He’ll look to help the Euros, and perhaps betting favorites, in playing a bit of historical catch-up as favorites are 11 for 30 while U.S. runners hold an 18-12 edge over their European counterparts. In three starts this season, all at a mile, Toronado defeated Verrazano (yes, THAT Verrazano) in the G1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot then finished second to the great Kingman in the G1 Sussex, a race he was as a sophomore last year, and in the Prix du Moulin last out by a head to Charm Spirit.

Seek Again will look to overcome his penchant for finding trouble in his races for trainer Bill Mott and will almost certainly have a say in the outcome should he accomplish the feat. He gave Wise Dan all he could handle when second by a head in the G1 Turf Classic on Derby Day at Churchill, his first start since taking the G1 Hollywood Derby in his U.S. debut and won the G2 Fourstardave at Saratoga after a miserable trip two starts back. He had another brutal journey in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland when beaten just four lengths most recently.

Tom’s Tribute will look to defend his home turf in what will be his first start in just over two months. After a bit of a slow start to his season for Jim Cassidy, Tom’s Tribute has won three of his last four including the G1 Eddie Read and G2 Del Mar Mile, both at Del Mar, most recently.

Trade Storm overcame a poor break and some traffic trouble to grab the G1 Woodbine Mile by a half-length last out in his first U.S. start since finishing third behind Wise Dan in that race last year for David Simcock. That was his first win from seven tries this year and it seems the Lasix helps his cause.

Another Californian, Obviously, will be running in this for the third straight year. Third in 2012, Obviously tired to fifth in last years’ renewal. He’s two for three this year, with wins in both the G3 American and G1 Shoemaker Mile coming before a shocking fourth place finish at 2-5 in the Del Mar Mile last out for trainer Phil D’Amato.

The Rest

Goldikova’s little brother Anodin is eligible for a second level allowance contest and is winless in his last eight but has hit the board in a series of graded stakes in Europe for Freddie Head, who has won this twice as a jockey aboard Miesque and three times as a trainer with Goldikova.

Grand Arch has taken some tough beats this year for trainer Brian Lynch. His win in the G2 King Edward at Woodbine is his lone score from six tries this season but he has missed but just a neck in the Fourstardave, was a wide fifth in the Woodbine Mile and second in the Shadwell last out by just a length when he failed to capitalize on his rivals rough journeys.

Mark Casse will send out Kaigun for his tenth start of the year in the Mile. He was second to Wise Dan in the G1 Makers 46 Mile by less than a length back in the spring, second in the G1 Manhattan when the 10 furlongs proved to be a bit too far for him and a hard charging second in the Woodbine Mile two starts back. Last out he was a non-threatening fourth in the Shadwell.

A trio of European sophomores round out the Euro contingent. Karakontie failed to fire in his last pair against G1 runners for Jonathon Pease, including last out in the Prix de la Foret, his first start against older. Mustajeeb was second in the G2 Boomerang Mile in Ireland for Dermot Weld last out after winning the G3 Jersey at Royal Ascot in June. The filly Veda just missed when second in the G2 Wildenstein at Longchamp last out and will be seeking her first stakes score for Alain De-Royer Dupre.

Mott will also send out the three-year-old Tourist, second most recently in the G1 Secretariat behind the multiple G1 winning globe-trotter Adelaide. Tourist cuts back to his favorite distance for this as he is undefeated in his two starts at a mile. Summer Front makes his first start in over three months for Christophe Clement off a pair of place finishes in the Shoemaker Mile and Eddie Read. He won the G2 Ft. Lauderdale this past winter at Gulfstream. Sayaad is winless in four tries against graded stakes foes but was fourth in the G1 Baruch and third in the Shadwell last out for Kiaran McLaughlin.

Also eligible Mr. Commons hasn’t won for trainer John Shirreffs in over two and a half years but does have an affinity for this course as evident by his second place finish in the G2 City of Hope last out and a pair of G2 scores back in 2011.

The Strategy

Things were so, so simple the last couple of years. There was Wise Dan and the rest, though I admittedly tried beating him two years ago like a fool. I’m not sold on Toronado or the rest of the Euros for that matter. So I think I’m going to side with the U.S. in here are try to get a bit funky.

The Bomb

Though he rarely grabs the brass ring, Grand Arch always seems to be around the money. Horses like him usually find themselves in the winners’ circle on occasion. I’m not saying this is it but at 20-1 or so I’m taking a flyer on him just in case.

Classic Preview
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Classic Preview

Distance: 1¼ miles
Purse: $5,000,000
Age: 3-Years-Old
Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
Time: 8:35 p.m. EDT

The History

You knew this race was aptly named after the stretch run of the inaugural running when eventual winner Wild Again played bumper cars along with Slew o’ Gold and Gate Dancer. Ferdinand won the battle of the Kentucky Derby winners over Alysheba in 1987 before Alysheba claimed his own classic Victory the following year.

In the final chapter of their brief, yet intense rivalry, Sunday Silence held off the desperate surge of Easy Goer to win in 1989. Jerry Bailey won three in a row, starting in 1993 with Arcangues, the longest priced winner in Breeders’ Cup history and ending with the great Cigar in 1995 who capped a perfect 10-for-10 season with a fantastic score. Awesome Again split rivals in deep stretch to win a wild one in 1998 over Silver Charm and Swain.

Tiznow gutted out two of the greatest wins over a pair of tough Europeans, Giant’s Causeway and Sakhee, in 2000 and 2001 respectively, making his trainer Jay Robbins and the great Charlie Whittingham the only two time winners of the race.

Volponi blew up the tote board, then the Pick 6 scandal, in 2002 with his win at 43-1. Ghostzapper set the stakes record with a gate-to-wire, tour de force victory in 2004. Curlin capped his Horse of the Year campaign in 2007 with a win before finishing fourth as the sports leading money winner in 2008.

The great Zenyatta kept the undefeated dream alive with a remarkable last-to-first run in 2009 before falling a head short of Blame in the 2010 renewal and finishing her career with 19 wins from 20 starts. In 2013, Mucho Macho Man finally won a big one in a dramatic three-way photo over Will Take Charge and the Europe’s Declaration of War.

It’s the Classic indeed!!!!

The Scenario

Front Runners: Bayern, Big Cazanova, Moreno
Mid-pack: California Chrome, Cigar Street, Footbridge, Prayer for Relief, Shared Belief, Toast of New York, Tonalist
Closers: Candy Boy, Imperative, Majestic Harbor, V.E. Day, Zivo

The Best

It’s always one of the most highly anticipated races of the year and this year isn’t any different. We have the winners of G1 races like the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Whitney, Pacific Classic, Gold Cup, Awesome Again, all three Triple Crown races, Travers and Haskell all set to battle it out. It doesn’t get much better than that.

In the 30 year history of the Breeders’ Cup, a three-year-old has won the Classic nine times. If the morning line and popular thinking hold up, the first four choices in the years’ renewal all figure to be sophomores, led by the undefeated Shared Belief.

Last years’ Two-Year-Old Eclipse champ was forced to the sidelines earlier in the year with nagging foot issues. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer successfully fought the urge to push on his charge to make the spring classics and opted to get him ready for a solid second half push that started with an easy allowance score at his home base, Golden Gate Fields. Now four-for-four over synthetic surfaces, Hollendorfer pointed Shared Belief to the Los Alamitos Derby on conventional dirt, a race Shared Belief dominated by over four lengths with new rider Mike Smith.

After a short layoff, Shared Belief took on the best older horses at Del Mar, including the unofficial king of California, the now-retired Game on Dude, in the Pacific Classic. Smith took Shared Belief well off the pace and capitalized on a crazy :45 3/5 opening half mile with a quick move on the far turn to win going away by almost three lengths over the Polytrack.

Last out in the local prep for the Classic, the Awesome Again, Shared Belief was given the business early when floated wide on the first turn and down the backside before coming with a determined rally to gut out a neck victory over inferior foes. He’s been installed as the 9-5 morning line favorite while looking for win number eight and will break from post 6.

Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome will look to avenge his Belmont disappointment and dismal performance in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby last out with a Classic win that could very well garner him Horse of the Year honors.

Trained by Art Sherman, California Chrome gets to run over what appears to be his favorite race course. Three for four at “The Great Race Place,” California Chrome won a California bred stakes as well as the G2 San Felipe and G1 Santa Anita Derby in dominating fashion before taking the first two jewels of the Triple Crown.

In his last two, jockey Victor Espinoza has been criticized for his rides aboard California Chrome. Some feel he wasn’t quite aggressive enough in the Belmont, where the pace was ordinary to say the least, while others feel the same about his ride last out at Parx where he failed to take advantage of an apparent inside, speed biased racetrack by taking him off the pace before fading to sixth as the 4-5 chalk. They’ll both get the chance to redeem themselves from post 13.

Belmont Stakes hero Tonalist will try to prove those that call him a Belmont-horse-for-the-course wrong with a win at Santa Anita, a track that couldn’t be more different from Belmont if they tried. The wide, sweeping, forgiving turns at Belmont will be replaced by more traditional, tighter ones and that quarter-mile long stretch will be a distant memory as it’s all left, literally and figuratively, on the other side of the country.

His neighsayers need only point to his past performances to prove their point. Four for eight overall, he’s undefeated in three starts at Belmont, with his other wins coming in the G2 Peter Pan and last out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup for trainer Christophe Clement, who took the blinkers off. Surprisingly far back early, Tonalist was forced to steady ever so slightly under Joel Rosario to avoid a fallen Rajiv Maragh, who was dropped from Wicked Strong approaching the far turn, but wasn’t as badly affected as some of his other rivals. He then overcame some traffic in the stretch, eventually splitting horses in deep stretch to win by almost two lengths

He seemed far less imposing up at Saratoga when he failed to sustain his far turn/stretch rally when he settled for second in the G2 Jim Dandy before pressing the pace and tiring late to finish third in the Travers. It’ll be interesting to see where he’ll be placed early on from post 11.

To paraphrase one of my favorite rappers, Eminem, “will the real Bayern please stand up?” When the “good” Bayern shows up, good is the last superlative one would use to describe him. Sensational and scintillating are more like it. Few three-year-olds are as fast, as evident by his daylight victories in the G2 Woody Stevens, Haskell and Pennsylvania Derby, his latest conquest. In those races, Bayern went gate-to-wire, winning the first two by over seven lengths and the last by almost six. If that Bayern shows up this one might be over.

But if the other Bayern shows up, the “bad” one, it will prove to be a long two minutes or so for trainer Bob Baffert and his backers. That’s the one that showed up in the Preakness where he found trouble early and was beaten 21 lengths. That one also showed up in the Travers where Tonalist pressed him early before he folded up like an accordion, trudging home 20 lengths behind the field in last. Martin Garcia will be the first to know which Bayern shows up as he rides from post 7.

The Rest

In the first half of the year, Zivo won four straight against fellow New York breds in an allowance/optional claimer and three stakes for Chad Brown. It was in his final statebred victory, the Commentator where he came from dead last over an extremely speed biased race course, that he convinced his trainer to step him up in class. Brown did just that in the G2 Suburban at Belmont going this distance and Zivo rewarded him with last-to-first, three length victory.

Zivo took another step up in the G1 Woodward at Saratoga but couldn’t overcome that speed biased course, finishing fourth and beaten only three lengths. Last out, in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Zivo was just starting to rev up when his rider Jose Lezcano had to steady to avoid the fallen Maragh. Zivo, arguably affected the most of those left standing by the spill, re-rallied and held the briefest of leads before getting run down by Tonalist in the final stages. They’ll break from post 8.

I’m sure the connections of the talented Cigar Street thought they’d make it to the Classic one day but probably didn’t think it would have to wait until he was a five-year-old. After a nine month layoff in 2012, Cigar Street returned for new trainer Bill Mott and rattled off three straight, including the G3 Skip Away going 1 3/16 miles at Gulfstream before returning to the sidelines for another 17 months.

He returned in an allowance/optional claimer at Saratoga this summer and finished a game second over a muddy course going 1 1/8 miles. Last out in the Homecoming Classic at Churchill going the same distance, Cigar Street rated just off the pace before edging away to a near two length score. He’ll break from post 2 and be reunited with John Velazquez

Moreno and Junior Alvarado were the cause of the spill in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when he dropped over and clipped heels with Wicked Strong. Many believe it’s the reason Eric Guillot switched to the nations’ leading rider Javier Castellano for this. After all, Alvarado piloted Moreno to second place finishes in the Suburban and Woodward as well as his lone victory this year when they went gate-to-wire in the prestigious Whitney at Saratoga. Moreno will break from post 4.

V.E. Day was originally going to skip a trip west after avoiding the fallen Maragh in the Jockey Club Gold Cup where he also was bothered at the start before eventually finishing sixth but trainer Jimmy Jerkens has opted for a Classic try with his gutsy Travers winner. That Travers win capped a four-race win streak in which V.E. Day won over a sloppy track, on the turf and the Curlin at Saratoga on a fast track. Joe Talamo rides from post 5.

G2 U.A.E. Derby winner Toast of New York will make his third trip over the pond this year having already shipped over for the G1 Belmont Derby on turf in which he was sixth and for the Pacific Classic last out. Toast of New York was second that day and actually claimed foul against the winner to no avail for trainer Jamie Osbourne. Jamie Spencer will ride from post 9 in what is supposed to be the final ride of his career. Take note that this will be Toast of New York’s first race over conventional dirt.

Majestic Harbor got stuck with post 14 at the draw but shocked the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in early summer, parlaying a wicked early pace battle into a blowout score by over six lengths at better than 14-1 for trainer Sean McCarthy and regular rider Tyler Baze. He’s regressed a bit since as he failed to fire when a well beaten sixth in the Pacific Classic followed by a fourth place finish in the Awesome Again in a couple of races that featured sharp early paces.

It seems like Candy Boy is getting some “wiseguy” buzz coming off a third place finish in the PA Derby where he was up against it over that speed biased racecourse. Second in the CashCall to close out 2013, Candy Boy got up in the final strides to win the G2 Robert Lewis to start the season but is winless in five starts since. He was second in both the Los Alamitos Derby and the G2 West Virginia Derby before that effort at Parx last out for John Sadler. He’ll break from post 12 with Corey Nakatani in the saddle.

Imperative has won just once from nine starts this season but it came in the $1.5 million G2 Charles Town Classic over Game On Dude. Trained by George Papaprodromou, Imperative was third in the Gold Cup and Pacific Classic but has a penchant for throwing in some clunkers as well. Winless in five starts at Santa Anita, Frankie Dettori will ride for the first time from post 3.

Prayer for Relief in all eight tries this year after capping off a solid, if not spectacular, 2013 with a win in a minor stakes at the Fair Grounds. Transferred to trainer Dale Romans earlier in this season, Prayer for Relief was second by just a neck in the G3 Pimlico Special and third in both the Suburban and Woodward in his most recent start. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will ride from the rail.

Eoin Harty’s Footbridge finished second in the G2 San Diego at Del Mar two starts back before a third place finish in the Awesome Again last out. He won a pair of allowance/optional claimers in the springtime over this course, including his lone try at this distance and has hit the board in all but one of his eight starts at Santa Anita. Rafael Bejarano will ride from post 10.

The lone also eligible is Big Cazanova for trainer Peter Miller. A G1 Stakes winner in South America, this Argentinian bred has won three of seven starts in California against much lesser and tired badly in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, his lone try against graded stakes competition here. Elvis Trujillo would ride.

The Strategy

So many questions to answer this year. Is Shared Belief the real deal? Did the rest catch up to California Chrome? Is Tonalist just a Belmont Park beast? Don’t even get me started on Bayern. Now, collectively, are any of those sophomores able to handle the best older horses in the land? I will tell you I’m against Shared Belief and California Chrome, especially as the first two choices.

The Bomb

How can Zivo be 15-1 on the morning line? He shows up every single time he runs. He’s well worth that price. If he gets pummeled at the windows, V.E. Day is another who always comes running late. He’ll for sure be 18-1 or higher.

Breeders' Cup Saturday Preview
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com

Here is a brief analysis of Saturday's Breeders' Cup races leading up to the Breeders' Cup Classic. All races will air on NBCSN save for the Classic, which will be shown on NBC. Check out our Classic preview right here.

Odds shown are morning-line odds, which could change after the betting begins.

Race 4: Juvenile Fillies

Distance: 1 1/16 miles (dirt)

Post time: 3:05 p.m. ET

Morning-line favorite Angela Renee (3-to-1) earned a Grade 1 win over the Santa Anita surface and at the 1 1/16-mile distance in the Chandelier Stakes. This could be her race to win. She has good tactical speed, and she can save ground from the No. 2 post. Three of her primary threats — Wonder Gal (12-to-1), Top Decile (6-to-1) and By the Moon (6-to-1) — could lose ground breaking from posts Nos. 10-12.

If looking for a long shot to use in exotics, try the maiden Danette (20-to-1). She ran a sneaky-good third in the Chandelier, making an eye-catching run entering the turn.

Race 5: Filly and Mare Turf (fillies and mares, three years old and up)

Distance: 1 1/4 miles

Post time: 3:43 p.m. ET

Defending champion Dank returns to defend her title. While the five-year-old British mare hasn’t won since capturing the 2013 Filly and Mare Turf, she is 2-for-2 in America and 2-for-2 on Lasix. She is well-rested, having not raced since June, and legendary trainer Sir Michael Stoute has proven he can get her ready to fire off a layoff. Still, at the 5-to-2 morning line, she could be tough to take. Fellow Europeans Secret Gesture (6-to-1) and Fiesolana (8-to-1) merit a long look.

Stephanie’s Kitten (3-to-1) is the best of the Americans.

Race 6: Filly and Mare Sprint

Distance: Seven furlongs (dirt)

Post time: 4:21 p.m. ET

Morning-line favorite Judy the Beauty (5-to-2) has won 3-of-4 starts this season, but she hasn’t raced in 76 days, and the majority of her recent workouts have been on turf. Artemis Agrotera (3-to-1) and Leigh Court (4-to-1) have good tactical speed and are the logical alternatives if the favorite doesn’t run her race. If there’s a total pace collapse, the classy Better Lucky (15-to-1) has a puncher’s chance.

Race 7: Turf Sprint

Distance: About 6.5 furlongs (turf)

Post time: 5:05 p.m. ET

This is a deep, talented group, with compelling cases to be made for most of the field. This full field of 14 horses will chart a winding downhill journey for about three-quarters of their journey, then make a left-hand turn into the stretch run.

Local 12-to-1 shots Home Run Kitten and Ambitious Brew are especially interesting. Both have won at this distance down the hill, and horses with prior winning experience over this unique route of ground have captured the four previous renditions of the Turf Sprint at Santa Anita.

Race 8: Juvenile

Distance: 1 1/16 miles (dirt)

Post time: 5:43 p.m. ET

With possible race favorite American Pharoah scratched because of injury, favoritism could fall to Daredevil (7-to-2), the Todd Pletcher trainee who recorded a sparkling 107 Beyer for his win in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont. However, Daredevil drew poorly (No. 12), as did Upstart, beaten just 2½ lengths in the Champagne. But Upstart is farthest out in post No. 13. Moreover, Mr. Z (No. 10) and One Lucky Dane (No. 11) are talented horses with speed. Either the pace will be fast upfront, or the horses will stack up entering the turn, causing some to go wider than hoped.

Another Pletcher charge, Carpe Diem, could work out an ideal trip from the No. 9 hole. He has enough speed to get position and doesn’t need the lead. At his 4-to-1 morning line, he’s quite appealing.

The mystery horse is The Great War (12-to-1), a European who’s never run on dirt and never traveled beyond 6.5 furlongs. However, the Aidan O’Brien trainee gets Lasix. He’ll drop back, and if the pace is too hot, he could get a placing.

Race 9: Turf

Distance: 1 1/2 miles (turf)

Post time: 6:22 p.m. ET

Overseas horses have won seven of the last 10 runnings of the Turf. Of the four European entrants, Telescope (4-to-1) and Flintshire (7-to-2) appear strongest. The most accomplished American-based horse, 6-to-1 chance Main Sequence, began his career in Great Britain before coming to the United States. He’s 3-for-3 in U.S. Grade 1 races this year, displaying a wonderful closing kick. But he never won a Group 1 in Europe.

Hardest Core (10-to-1) is an American with a chance. He figures to sit mid-pack and might be able to get the jump on the closers. A surprise winner of the Arlington Million in August who hasn’t raced since, his price could float upward, and he’s a viable win candidate.

Race 10: Sprint

Distance: Six furlongs

Post time: 7:01 p.m. ET

A demanding pace seems very likely in the Sprint, which could set up an upsetter like Mico Margarita (15-to-1), who will likely lay midfield and pounce. Rich Tapestry (5-to-1) and Palace (6-to-1) are other skilled off-the-pace types.

However, handicappers who like horses who figure to be on or near the pace shouldn’t fret. If a speed duel doesn’t develop, the front-runners could be tough to catch.

Race 11: Mile

Distance: One mile (turf)

Post time: 7:40 p.m. ET

With two-time defending champion Wise Dan out of the race because of injury, the Mile could again belong to the Europeans, with Toronado (5-to-2) the favorite. But three-year-olds Mustajeeb (6-to-1) and Veda (12-to-1) also bear watching and stand upset chances. The latter is especially interesting at anything close to her morning-line odds.

Seek Again (6-to-1) is the strongest of the Americans; he has a shot if he runs back to his electric win at Saratoga in August. And Tourist (12-to-1) is a talented sleeper. Breaking from the No. 13 hole, he'll have to be sent early to get position, but if he can settle off of the speedy Obviously, he might get a nice run into the lane.

Breeders' Cup Classic Preview
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com

Like brash online players descending upon the poker rooms of the Las Vegas, the three-year-olds have come to get the money in Saturday’s $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita.

And one of them seems an especially good bet to take the $3 million top prize.

Undefeated gelding Shared Belief rates a strong chance of being the first three-year-old to win the Classic since Raven’s Pass in 2008. The 8-to-5 morning-line favorite in Saturday’s Classic (Race 12, 8:35 p.m. ET, NBC) Shared Belief is 7-for-7 all-time, including a victory in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita in September.

The victory at Santa Anita was Shared Belief’s second on dirt; his other wins were on synthetic surfaces. And — for argument’s sake — his fairly light Beyer Speed Figures in his dirt wins (104, 101) perhaps could signal he’s not quite the monster on dirt that he is on synthetic.

Still, it is hard to knock Shared Belief. In his Awesome Again victory, Shared Belief was wide throughout, stayed close to a fairly fast pace and still found a way to win, posting a 101 Beyer in a neck victory. With a better trip, he surely would have run a faster number.

Nevertheless, many will try to beat Shared Belief in the Classic. Some may turn to the familiar purple-blinkered face of the Kentucky Derby winner, California Chrome (4-to-1). Though California Chrome turned in a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby in his Classic prep, he should show better back in his home state while breaking from an outside post (No. 13). At his best, California Chrome has shown the early speed to attend the pace and the stamina to kick on when the really running begins.

If California Chrome recaptures his best form, he could get first run on another three-year-old, Bayern, the winner of the Pennsylvania Derby. Trained by Bob Baffert, Bayern (6-to-1) is a good bet to be on the lead if he breaks well. And the break is everything to Bayern. If he encounters early trouble like he did in the Preakness, he’ll be done in a snap. He needs the lead, and he needs to relax on the lead to have a shot.

And pace could tell the tale in this Classic. With an uncontested lead, Bayern could get brave. However, if he has to fight the speedy long shot Moreno to get to the front, it could set up a wicked speed duel compromising both runners. Moreover, it could compromise California Chrome if the Derby winner isn’t at his best. It’s even possible that Shared Belief — who should be a little farther back than California Chrome — could be affected by hot early fractions.

And if the speed takes its toll on the front-runners, the closers could have their day in the Classic. Which brings us to another three-year-old — the long-winded Tonalist, the winner of the Belmont Stakes and the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Breaking from the No. 11 post, Tonalist (5-to-1) figures to take back and launch his rally late. He’s a prime contender.

Another three-year-old to watch is the English 12-to-1 shot Toast of New York, who was second in the Pacific Classic in August behind Shared Belief. Toast of New York will sit mid-pack, which could be a good spot if the pace heats up. However, he’s never run on dirt.

But the Classic isn’t all about the three-year-olds. Cigar Street (12-to-1) figures to be farther off the lead than usual. This could be a good thing, given the potential pace. Zivo (15-to-1) is a closer who could factor if the race falls apart. And long-shot local hope Majestic Harbor (20-to-1) notched a dominant 61/4-length win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita at this distance in June.

In the end, though, the three-year-olds could be tough to beat, and the brilliant Shared Belief should prove best of all, prevailing over Tonalist and likely clinching Horse of the Year in the process.

Breeders’ Cup Analysis
By Chris Andrews
Againstthenumber.com

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

First of all, I have to confess I have never had a lot of success in this race. The field looks vey typical, lots of top trainers with expensive fillies who look like they can run at least a little.

Todd Pletcher’s Angela Renee looks like she’ll be the deserving chalk, but that doesn’t mean much.

Puca, trained by Billy Mott, won her maiden by 16 lengths in a hand ride. It was her third race and she improved in every one. No big surprise with Mott in charge. She’ll get my win bet, but I’m not going crazy. She’s listed at 6/1.

Dale Romans is a trainer who is just under the reputation of Mott, Pletcher, Baffert, et al. Romans gets good horses and gets a lot out of them, but tends to shoot a bit high with them. He’s got one here, though, that looks like a real runner, Cristina’s Journey. After breaking her maiden she won the Grade II Pocahontas at Churchill. I think she fits nicely here and will make a good account of herself at 6/1.

I’ll put Puca, Cristina’s Journey and Conquest Eclipse, 4/1,in a very small exacta box.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

You have to look to the Euro’s first here, and I am going to play one of them.

Dank, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ryan Moore, won this race last year. She is only 0 for 2 this year, however. Don’t discount her, though. A trainer doesn’t get be a ‘Sir’ by being some stiff. At 5/2 on the morning line, I’m looking elsewhere, however.

I’m betting Secret Gesture, 6/1 on the morning line,across the board. She has 4 starts this year with a win, 2 2nd and a 3rd. She has multiple placings in Grade I’s but has yet to win one. She has only been out of the money once lifetime while facing nothing but top company. She’s run in Germany, France and her native Great Britain. Her breeding is the Galileo/Danehill cross that has produced many winners, particularly on the turf at classic distances. The 4 year-old filly looks like she is about to blossom.

American raced Stephanie’s Kitten could be the favorite. She is a multiple Grade I winner, has over $2 million in the bank and always gives a solid effort in top company.
I’ll leave Dank out of my exacta box with Secret Gesture and Stephanie’s Kitten and use Irish Mission. She is trained by Christophe Clement, who has only had her since May. In that time she has shown steady improvement, winning a Grade III and finishing 3rd in a Grade I her last 2 starts. She is listed at 20/1, a real value for Clement going a distance.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

I love 7-furlong races. I think it is one of the hardest distances for a horse to run. It’s a long, long sprint.A lot of handicappers, and some trainers, think there is little difference between 6 and 7 furlongs. There is a big difference. Unfortunately I couldn’t find any horses in here who couldn’t go the extra furlong. Damn.

I have been reading good things about Leigh Court. She has primarily raced in Canada, and I don’t know her connections all that well. However the reports are she has looked very good since shipping to Santa Anita. She was a solid performer last year as a 3 year-old. This year she has only 2 starts, but won them both. She has certainly attracted the eye of the linemaker, who places her odds at 4/1. I’ll bet her across the board and wheel her front and back in the exactas.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

For those of you who might not know, this race is 6½ furlongs on the downhill turf course. It features the only right hand turn in North American racing, and also crosses the main (dirt) track for a few yards. Horses who have done well in this race usually have run here before and come from just off the pace. There are a few that fit the bill, including Reneesgotzip, who ran second last year right here in this race.

That solid mare has no qualms facing the boys and whopping them. She only has 2 races under her belt this year, though she looks solid, its hard to tell. There is no clear cut favorite here and she might go off favored at 5/1.

The horse I am looking at, who fits the criteria mentioned above is Ambitious Brew, 12/1. He is ridden by Mike Smith, who for my money might be the best jockey on the planet. I don’t know if he is in a class by himself, but whatever class he is in, it doesn’t take long to call roll (thank you Bum Phillips). This is a Cal-bred who is really stepping up in class but can really run, too. In case you forgot, this years Derby and Preakness winner started out running in Cal-bred races, too. He turned out okay. I’ll bet Smith’s horse across the board.

I’ll also play and exacta box with Reneesgotzip, Ambitious Brew and Home Run Kitten. Joe Talamo rides Home Run Kitten, who has 2 wins on this quirky course both with Talamo in the irons.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Bob Baffert’s American Pharoah would have been the chalk here but scratched out of the race. Too bad. That ruined the price on Daredevil, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano. I thought I could get good value on Daredevil, but that is almost impossible now. He could go off at less than 2/1. I would use him in any exotics, but my win bet has to go elsewhere.

Aiden O’Brien obviously saw something in his charge, The Great War, to want to give him a shot to go off the turf and onto the main track. Ryan Moore rides the 12/1 shot (he’ll probably be lower with favorite scratched). His breeding doesn’t necessarily scream turf, so he looks like a good candidate to transfer his form to the dirt.

I usually bet small on these 2 year-old races and this one will be no different. Win bet on The Great War and a box with him, Daredevil and Bob Baffert’s One Lucky Dane.

Breeders Cup Turf

Once again you’ve got to looked to the Europeans for this race, and that is exactly what I am going to do.

Telescope, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ryan Moore is listed at 4/1 and is my choice in this race. He has faced the best Europe has had to offer including Taghrooda, Noble Mission, Mukhadram and Australia, who many consider to be the best horse in the world right now. In spite of facing that all-star line up, he has never been out of the money in 10 starts.

Last year’s winner, Magician, scratched out of the race so that will lower some of the prices.

One thing I’ve noticed with Euros, the fillies do very well facing the boys when they race later in the season. For years I have said, “I love fillies in the fall.” Aiden O’Brien sends his filly, Chicquita, (8/1) to face the boys here. She is another with the Saddler’s Wells/Danehill cross that flourishes on the grass at this distance. I’ll use her in my exacta box.

I’ll also use Hardest Core in my exacta (10/1) who has one of the most interesting stories among all the horses on the track this weekend. Google it.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Do not fall asleep on horses coming in from Asia. Their racing and breeding programs have improved exponentially in the past few years.

Rich Tapestry (5/1) is Irish bred and raced in Hong Kong, UAE and the U.S.A. He’s raced on turf and synthetics, but he is 3 for 3 at this distance on the main track, including a win in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship on October 5. This is a tough race, but this guy can really run.

Secret Circle (9/2) won this race last year and I am going to use him in my exacta this year. Bob Baffert has only had him out for 2 races so far this season. His form looks very sharp, though he didn’t win either (2nd a neck in a Grade II, 3rd by 1¾ in a Grade I).

I’ll also use Salutos Amigos (6/1) trained by David Jacobson and ridden by Castellano, a pretty good pairing.

Breeders’ Cup Mile

Though he stayed home last year, Toronado was considered the best miler in Europe. Race fans were drooling for a match between he and Wise Dan, North America’s Horse of the Year. Toronado’s form has not been quite as sharp this year, in fact 3 year-old Kingman is considered to be the world’s best miler.

Nonetheless, Toronado (5/2)is no slouch. He has a win and 2 2nd in 3 races this year, all Grade I’s. If he is at his best, he will win. Period.

I am going to take a shot with another emerging European 3 year-old Mustajeeb (6/1) for my across the board bet. Mustajeeb was also bested by Kingman, then followed that 3rd place finish with a win and a 2nd in Graded stakes. He’s never been out of the money since his debut where he ran 4th. Dermot Weld trains, Pat Smullen rides.

I’m going with another Asian bred, European raced horse to complete my exacta box, Karokonite (10/1). He has been terribly inconsistent but has 2 Grade I wins while facing nothing but graded company in 6 straight races.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic Analysis
By Chris Andrews
Againstthenumber.com

Prayer for Relief- I’ve said before, Dale Romans is a good trainer, but he tends to shoot a little high with his horses. When this horse was with Steve Asmussen he ran primarily in non-graded stakes. Under Asmussen he had a terrific 2013 with 3 wins and 2 seconds in 7 starts and earned over $400,000. He had also pocketed over $1.5 million in his career. Now under Romans, he’s run in nothing but graded company. He has a 2 thirds and a second in 6 starts. That’s not bad, but it’s not good enough to beat this field. Not for me.

Cigar Street- His dam is a half sister to one of the greatest (if not THE greatest) horse of the past 25 years, Cigar. While the public stops following horses after the Triple Crown (for 3 year-olds) Cigar didn’t turn into a monster until he turned 5, ancient in the mind of the public but a peak year for many thoroughbreds. Billy Mott trained Cigar during his unbelievable run (16 straight wins). Can he work the same magic with this 5 year-old? A lot of people think he can. He is very lightly raced with only 8 lifetime starts. But he has 5 wins in those starts and has always been a solid performer. A huge, huge unknown. Underestimate Mott at your own peril. He has a big chance.

Imperative- The trainer is George Papaprodrompou. Can you get a Greek-er name than that? In case you’re new to this site, I’m a very proud Greek and not ashamed to say so. If I’m betting my money (like many of us Greeks are known to do) I need a little more. Make no mistake, there is a little more here, but only a little. He upset a very good field in the Charlestown Classic, beating Game On Dude and Moreno, and paying $55 in the process. He also ran a solid 3rd to Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic at over 37/1. Is he capable? I guess so, but it will take the race of his life. One of Europe’s great jockey’s Frankie Dettori picks up the mount. I would be happy for the Greek if he can pull this out, but it won’t be because I’m cashing a ticket.

Moreno- This horse has a ton of speed, which is dangerous anywhere but particularly so at Santa Anita. I always wondered why he wasn’t stabled in Southern California rather than New York, but what do I know. He has carried his speed to win the Whitney at 1 1/8 and has run second at 1¼. I love the jock change to Javier Castellano. That has to help. Alvarado is a good jock, but Castellano is one of the best. And a perfect ride might have turned some of Moreno’s 7 lifetime seconds into wins. He’s very live. Plus Castellano got off V.E.Day to pick up this mount.

V.E. Day- The plan was to rest him until next year after his poor effort in the Gold Cup. Trainer James Jerkins thought better of it and decided to put him here. He’ll need a strong pace to run at and I’m certain he’ll get it. Even though Castellano is off, the extremely capable Joe Talamo is on. Talamo wins a ton of big races, so don’t let the jock change scare you. I have to look elsewhere, but I can’t wait to see his 4 year-old season.

Shared Belief- The horse is undefeated, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith rides, Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer trains, I guess he has to be the favorite. The price is probably a little short for this field but this is one damn fine racehorse. Not only can he win by daylight, he can win a stretch duel, too. As a gelding we will miss him passing his genes along, but hopefully we can look forward to a long career without the lure of the breeding shed tempting him away from the racetrack. He’s in my exacta, but I have another horse to win. Wish me luck.

Bayern- This is the mystery horse to me. It would surprise exactly no one if he wins. It would surprise exactly no one if he runs last. If he were a stock option I would have a long straddle on him and wait to cash. He has won at 1 1/8 but has faltered miserably beyond that (last and second to last in his two races). That 1 1/8 is a magical distance to thoroughbreds that some just can’t break through. He has the breeding to do it, but at some point you have to put the breeding to rest and see the evidence as it is presented on the track. (I wrote about Bayern’s bloodlines before the Arkansas Derby. You can read that here. ) It’s like a football team sticking with a highly drafted quarterback after he shows he can’t play. I did NOT say the Jets, I did not. You said it. Or at least thought it.

Zivo- Chad Brown is one hell of a trainer. He has taken this horse from one who was dominating New York-breds to running in the highest level of competition and done remarkably well. His last 3 races are a win in the Suburban (Grade II at 1¼ miles), a 2nd in the Grade I Gold Cup (1¼ miles) and a decent 4th in the Woodward (Grade I at 1 1/18 miles). This is another horse peaking as a 5 year-old. (More evidence we take horses off the track too early. Don’t get me started.) I was with one of our co-founders, Matt Clark, when Zivo won the Suburban. Before the race, Matt said, “Some horses like to run, but they don’t want to race. This horse likes to race.” Wow. I loved that statement. We had Zivo that day, too. I think a fast pace sets him up well to get a piece. I’m using him in my exactas.

Toast of New York- This is another mystery horse. The odds aren’t listed because you have to bet races in Dubai off-track, but he was odds on to win the UAE Derby. He did win, and was fairly impressive doing so. He then came stateside for the Belmont Derby and ran poorly. It was on the turf, so maybe that’s his excuse. Then he went to Del Mar and finished a decent second to Shared Belief. This is his first race on a plain-ole dirt track. He might take to it or he might not. I just don’t know. Looks like too big of a gamble for me.

Footbridge- Godolphin always shoots high with their horses. If my family owned Dubai oil fields, I’d probably do the same. Still, they have only had modest success in the U.S. They put this late developing 4 year-old in against graded company and he certainly did not embarrass himself. He ran 2nd in the San Diego (Grade II) and a good third to Shared Belief in the Awesome Again (Grade I). He looks pretty good to me, but pretty good isn’t enough to cut it here.

Tonalist- The thoroughbred world said hello to this guy when he won the Peter Pan. He nailed the Belmont in his next race with a thrilling finish. Since then he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup, ran 3rd in the Travers and 2nd in the Jim Dandy. He ran out of the money at first asking but has never done so again. He comes off the pace but is never too far back. Look for him to be well placed in this one. Christophe Clement trains and I don’t believe there is another trainer in America who can get a horse ready to win at classic distances. I’m playing him to win.

Candy Boy- Nice horse who always gives a solid effort. He has faced a lot of the best company and has earned his share of purses. He never embarrasses himself but doesn’t win very often, either. With Gary Stevens up, I thought that gave him the best chance to win or at least run well. Once Stevens got hurt, they have switched a few times and now go back to Cory Nakatani, not my favorite. Sorry.

California Chrome- Never heard of him. Kidding, kidding. The question we have to ask is, is he a great horse or did he just peak earlier than these others? The Triple Crown is unique in that we ask young horses to do what they have never done before. Most are not nearly up to the task. If you look at the fields he has beaten, not many of them have gone on to greatness. Medal Count, Wicked Strong and maybe even Ride On Curlin were top horses and hopefully we will hear from them again in the future. That’s about it, though. He lost to Tonalist, who has proven to be a top horse in the Belmont. Maybe the horses he beat were just fair and nothing special. When he came back in the Pennsylvania Derby, he needed that race, so I am not taking anything away from him for that effort. Now this will be the big test. His legacy is on the line. Part of me really would like to see him do it. If you can like a horse (of course you can), then I like this horse. His owners have proven to be a couple of yoyos, but how can you not like his trainer Art Sherman? Part of me is rooting for him. I’ll use him in my pick 3s and pick 4s, but I’ll leave him out of the exacta. I like Shared Belief better and don’t want to kill the value of the exacta with the two chalks.

Majestic Harbor- Another horse who found his best form just before most horses go on Social Security. The 6 year-old ran the race of his career in winning the Tokyo City, one of the few graded stakes in North America at 1½ on the dirt. Three months later he really ran the race of his life when he crushed the field in the Santa Anita Gold Cup (Grade I, 1¼ miles) paying $30. His best can definitely do it. He is another horse I would root for, but not today. My money will be elsewhere.