Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 5th, 2016

BC - Juvenile Fillies
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Dstance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 2YOf
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET

The History

Open Mind, Go For Wand, Meadow Star and Silverbulletday are some of the fantastic young ladies to have captured this event. My Flag splashed home in the mud to win in 1995 before her daughter Storm Flag Flying took the 2002 renewal at Arlington Park. Ria Antonia was put up via DQ in 2013 after She’s a Tiger bumped her in deep stretch. The amazing Songbird led them every step of the way last season.

Favorites: 18 for 32 (56%)
Shortest: $2.40 (Meadow Star, 1990)
Highest: $125.40 (Take Charge Brandi, 2014)

The Best

Union Strike will be making her first start in just over two months but could very well be the favorite in here, her first start for trainer Craig Dollase. After finishing second in her debut behind Triple Crown champion American Pharoah’s little sister, American Cleopatra, Union Strike managed to turn the tables last out in the G1 Del Mar Debutante when she ran past her rivals with a wide rally to win by over two lengths despite Martin Garcia losing his whip.

Dancing Rags is a perfect two for two on dirt after a third place finish on turf in her career debut. She broke her maiden at Laurel going a one turn mile before coming back just three weeks later to take the G1 Alcibiades by a length off of a perfect trip at this distance for trainer Graham Motion, who had an amazing meet at Keeneland.

Yellow Agate will look to run her record to three for three in what will be her first start around two turns and away from Belmont Park. After breaking her maiden from well off of the pace at 32-1, this daughter of hot freshman sire Gemologist wore down her front running rival in the G1 Frizette to win by a head going a flat mile.

Sweet Loretta will be looking to stay perfect when she makes her first start in nine weeks and around two turns. After breaking her maiden at Monmouth, she shipped up to Saratoga to win the G3 Schuylerville and opening day before surviving an objection and inquiry when she dead-heated for the win in the G1 Spinaway on closing weekend. She’ll be looking to give her trainer Todd Pletcher his first win in this event.

Noted and Quoted will look to give her Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert his third win in this event coming off of a determined victory in the G1 Chandelier at this distance and over this course. One of just three fillies in here with four races already under her belt, she broke her maiden two back before being beaten soundly when she was fourth in the Del Mar Debutante.

The Rest

Daddys Lil Darling stormed home to take the Pocahontas at Churchill in the mud before just missing by a length in the Alcibiades where she drew post 14. This will be her fourth consecutive start around two turns and third at this distance having won the second start of her career at Ellis Park going a flat mile.

With Honors set the pace in her dirt debut in the Chandelier and dug in gamely for the place. She won the first two starts of her career on the turf, including a minor stakes and opted for this spot as opposed to the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Trainer Rudy Rodriguez will send out both Colorful Charades and Jamyson ‘n Ginger. Colorful Charades broke her maiden at first asking up at Saratoga in a sprint before an eight week break led to a third place finish in the Frizette. Jamyson ‘n Ginger, for your Beyer Speed Figure fans, recorded the highest number for a juvenile filly this year, a 103, when she broke her maiden by over 15 lengths in her third start when stretching out to a mile over a sloppy Belmont strip.

Champagne Room broke her maiden in the G2 Sorrento at Del Mar in her second start before finishing a non-threatening third in the Del Mar Debutante and fourth when stretching out in the Chandelier where she appeared to be rank in the early going.

Valadorna broke her maiden on the same day as the Alcibiades at this distance and actually ran faster than the stakes fillies when she cruised to a six length tally despite a bobble at the start

American Gal broke her maiden when debuting at Del Mar and returned from a 10 week break to win a minor stakes at Santa Anita in her latest, less than two weeks before this race, for Baffert.

If I’m Right...

These young ladies will kick off a fantastic Breeders’ Cup Saturday. American Girl and Colorful Charades figure to mix it up early leaving the favorites little excuse when the real running begins approaching the far turn.

Live Longshot

Valadorna knocked my socks of in her maiden win. I’m a little surprised yet excited to see her in here knowing that her trainer Mark Casse isn’t one to rush them. 12-1 or higher seems to be a fair price to me.

BC - F&M Turf
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 1 ¼ miles (T)
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up (f&m)
Time: 3:45 p.m. ET

The History

Ouija Board won it in 2004 and 2006 and was stopped by Intercontinental in 2005 when she was second. Her trainer Ed Dunlop and the late Bobby Frankel each won two runnings while Kieran Fallon and Jerry Bailey have each ridden a pair of winners.

Favorites: 5 for 17 (29%)
Shortest: $3.80 (Ouija Board, 2004)
Highest: $94.00 (Shared Account, 2010)
U.S based: 11
Foreign based: 6
The champ is here? No. Stephanie’s Kitten has been retired and is a broodmare in Japan.

The Best

The remarkable story of Lady Eli figures to be one of the more compelling storylines of the entire weekend as her trainer Chad Brown seeks a natural hat trick and fourth overall in this event having won the last two runnings with Dayatthespa and Stephanie’s Kitten.

Undefeated after the first six start of her career, including the 2014 Juvenile Fillies Turf over this course, she reportedly stepped on a pin after her win in the G1 Belmont Oaks, her first start at this distance, and developed a case of often-fatal laminitis, a disease that affects horses feet.

Somehow, Lady Eli managed to battle back and not only beat it, but return to the track as well. Her return didn’t go as planned however as she made the lead in deep stretch but couldn’t hold off a big longshot in the G2 Ballston Spa at Saratoga.

But last out in the G1 Flower Bowl at Belmont at this trip, Lady Eli returned to her winning ways, overcoming a bit ok a pokey pace and a wide trip to win in the last several strides by three-quarters of a length.

Fellow Brown charge Sea Calisi was third in the Flower Bowl and may have been more compromised by the slow early pace than her more popular stablemate.

In four starts since coming to the U.S. this season, Sea Calisi won the G2 Sheepshead Bay before a troubled trip second as the 4-5 favorite in the G2 New York Handicap, both at Belmont. She shipped out to Arlington for the G1 Beverly D and took advantage of a quick opening half-mile to storm home a much easier winner than the half-length margin indicates.

Seventh Heaven appears to be the stronger of the two bullets Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore will fire from over the pond as they’ll also send out her rabbit, Pretty Perfect.

Seventh Heaven was victorious in two 1 ½ mile European classics, the G1 Irish Oaks and G1 Yorkshire Oaks, a race in which this sophomore filly faced older for the first time and soundly defeated defending Turf champion/stablemate Found. Just three weeks ago, she ran into a touch of traffic trouble but never made an impact in the G1 British Champions at Ascot where she was fifth and actually beaten inches by Pretty Perfect.

The Rest

Sentiero Italia found herself on the lead set that slow pace in the Flower Bowl before having to settle for the place money. Third in the Ballston Spa after running into the teeth of a quick pace on the far turn, she was fourth as a sophomore in this last year.

Avenge has won her last three since stretching out this summer for Hall of famer Richard Mandella, including the G2 John C Mabee two back and the G1 Rodeo Drive at this distance and over this course in gate-to-wire fashion last out.

Former claimer Al’s Gal, plucked for $35K by sharp claiming trainer Mike Maker in late February 2015, made the first graded stakes win of her career count when she gutted out a nose victory in the G1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine just three weeks ago. She was second in the Beverly D when she was simply outkicked by Sea Calisi.

Catch a Glimpse won the first eight turf starts of her career, including the Juvenile Fillies Turf last year and Belmont Oaks this year, before missing by a neck in the G2 Lake Placid and tiring badly in the G1 QEII at Keeneland last out. She figures to set the pace in here in her first try against older fillies and mares.

Zipessa chased Avenge all the way around there in the Rodeo Drive but was never able to get by. She won the G3 Dr. Penny at Parx earlier this year before tiring in the stretch of the Beverly D to be third.

There is plenty of international flavor to go along with the Coolmore runners in this year’s renewal, a race the U.S. based runners have had a decided edge in

Sir Michael Stoute sends a curious filly from Europe in Queen’s Trust. She’s won just once in seven tries, her debut over a synthetic surface, but was third in the Yorkshire Oaks and British Champions last out. She’ll get Lasix and Frankie Dettori for this.

Nuovo Record ships in from the land of the Rising Son sporting just one victory from nine starts over the past two years. As a three-year-old she won the G1 Japanese Oaks. Yutaka Take will ride.

Kitcat is a multiple Group 1 winner in her native Chile and prepped for this in a minor stakes over the course last out, her first try in over 4 months.

Ryans Charm is a multiple G1 winner from Peru who ships in having won her last six starts and nine of her last ten. She’s won eight of her 13 starts at this distance.

If I’m Right…

Sea Calisi may have run sneakily better than Lady Eli last out and more of a true router than she is. I’m not saying Lady Eli can’t win, I just don’t think she’s a shoo-in like some others do. This is a very interesting bunch.

Live Longshot

Queen’s Trust makes no sense to me, but who am I to doubt one of the best trainers in the world? She will probably take Euro money but I’d be happy with a flyer at 12-1 or so.

BC - Sprint
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 6 furlongs
Purse: $1.5 million
Age: 3up
Time: 4:21 p.m. ET

The History

Dayjur was home free in 1990 before famously jumping a shadow at Belmont Park and allowing Safely Kept to become one of three fillies to win this. Thirty Slews won the 1992 running, introducing the world to a then unknown trainer by the name of Bob Baffert. Kona Gold ran in the Sprint five times, grabbing the brass ring just once in 2000. Midnight Lute won back to back races in 2007 and 2008, while 2011 Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle won the 2013 renewal with just one prep in over 18 months, giving Baffert four wins to in the event.

Favorites: 8 for 32 (25%)
Shortest: $4.60 (Ellio, 1984)
Highest: $54.60 (Sheikh Albadou, 1991)
The champ is here? No. Runhappy will instead try to win the Dirt Mile on Friday.

The Best

In 1992, Thirty Slews came from just off the pace to win this event for a silver-haired, former quarter horse trainer that few had heard of named Bob Baffert. With a Hall of Fame induction and Triple Crown, amongst other things under his belt, that same guy will be looking for his fifth win in this event with the powerful duo of Lord Nelson and Drefong.

Like most Baffert juveniles, Lord Nelson was put on the road to the Kentucky Derby but it became apparent after a half dozen starts that sprinting would be his game and he’s justified Baffert’s decision to keep him sprinting by winning seven of his nine starts at seven furlongs or less.

He’s perfect in four starts at this distance, with three of those wins coming this season where is undefeated in four starts. He’s rattled off three consecutive G1 scores in the seven furlong Triple Bend, the Bing Crosby at Del Mar and in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship most recently, his first start in 10 weeks. His running style from just off the pace should play well in here.

While Lord Nelson will be coming from off it, Drefong figures to play a key role in regards to the pace. After breaking his maiden in the second start of his career as a juvenile, he returned from a six month layoff to win a pair of allowance/optional claimers over this course impressively.

Baffert shipped Drefong to Saratoga for his stakes debut, the G1 King’s Bishop, on the Travers undercard. From his outside post 12, Drefong managed to clear the lead through a moderate opening half mile and galloped home an easy winner by more than three lengths. This will be his first start in 10 weeks.

A.P. Indian has turned into one of the most reliable horses in the country in his six-year-old season. Upon his return from a seven month layoff, he won a pair of minor stakes at Monmouth, where he was placed first via DQ and at Parx, his first start with Joe Bravo in the saddle.

Since that race in mid-June in Philly, A.P. Indian and his new pilot have won four graded stakes, including the first two G1s of his career, the Vanderbilt and Forego, both at Saratoga. Last out, he set a course record at Keeneland when he overcame a rail draw to win the G2 Phoenix after scratching out of the G1 Vosburgh a week earlier due to a sloppy track.

Masochistic is one of the fastest horses in training but has made just two starts since finishing last of 14 in this race last season. Overall, he’s won four of his six starts over the course but owns just one win in five tries at this trip.

In his two aforementioned victories this year, he won an allowance optional claimer against just four rivals off of an eight month layoff before taking the G2 Pat O’Brien against just two others last out some 10 weeks ago.

The Rest

Joking stormed home at Belmont, arguably his favorite course, to win the Vosburgh last out in the mud, which he absolutely loves, to give trainer Charlie Baker his first G1 tally. Joking is a quirky sort. Baker has said the horse loves the serenity and wide turns that Belmont offers and has a tougher time with the tighter turns at some tracks and doesn’t like too much going on around him, something that could be an issue at an event of this magnitude. It was announced on entry day that he would likely scratch from this due to a fever.

Limousine Liberal added blinkers and ran the best race of his career when he just missed in the Phoenix last out after a stirring stretch duel. He’s hit the board in six of seven at the distance, including two wins, but will be seeking his first stakes victory.

Noholdingback Bear won for the first time in five tries on conventional dirt when he sat a perfect trip in the G3 Gallant Bob at Parx against three-year-olds. A multiple winner over synthetic surfaces at Woodbine and Presque Isle Downs, he was second in the G3 Hutcheson at Gulfstream to start the year and third two back in the King’s Bishop.

Delta Bluesman is a speedy former claimer who didn’t break his maiden until start 17 in a $25K claimer that has turned his career around since being claimed by the controversial Jorge Navarro two years ago. He’s finished first in five of his last six starts, including the G2 Smile at Gulfstream three back, before finishing fourth in the Vanderbilt.

New York bred sophomore Mind Your Biscuits won his first two starts when his connections added blinkers, including the G2 Amsterdam at Saratoga, before finishing fifth in the King’s Bishop and second in the Gallant Bob off a bit of a troubled trip from his inside draw.

If I’m Right...

The pace in here will be monumentally fast. As is the case almost every year, there is a TON of speed signed on for this, so I’m looking for someone coming from off of the pace. Lord Nelson figures to play a major role in the outcome.

Live Longshot

Mind Your Biscuits figures to be the longest shot on the board but is far from the least likely winner of the race. He’s the type of horse who shows up almost every time he steps on the track and should get a great setup in here at 20-1 or more.

BC - Turf Sprint
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 6 ½ furlongs (T)
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up
Time: 5:05 p.m. ET

The History

Run down the hill going 6 ½ furlongs in its first two runnings before going to its intended distance in 2011. Mizdirection became the first female to win the event in 2012 and first to repeat in 2013, when there was a dead-heat for second between Tightend Touchdown and Reneesgotzip.

Favorites: 3 for 8 (37%)
Shortest: $6.60 (Regally Ready, 2011)
Highest: $75.00 (Desert Code, 2008)
U.S based: 8
Foreign based: 0
The champ is here? Yes. Mongolian Saturday will try his hand down the hill after his win at Keeneland last season.

The Field

I had to toss the usual format. So, from the rail out, here goes.

Pure Sensation comes in on a three race win streak and has won six of his nine career start on the lawn. Off the board in here after some traffic trouble, he went gate-to-wire in the G3 Jaipur and G3 Parx dash before stalking the early fractions and getting up by a head in the inaugural Belmont Turf Sprint most recently.

Obviously, a multiple G1 winner at a mile and over this course will go down the hill for the first time in three and a half years. This is the eight-year-old geldings fifth consecutive Breeders’ Cup as he’s run in the past four runnings of the Mile. He’s as fast as they come and should be forwardly placed from his inside post.

Defending champion Mongolian Saturday became a bit of a globetrotter after his 15-1 upset of this last year over his favorite course at Keeneland. He was off the board in four Group 1 races, two in Hong Kong and two in England, before coming off of a three month layoff to win the G3 Woodford at Keeneland in his latest.

Home of the Brave has flashed speed over in Europe which could very well put him in a stalking position against the stateside speed. He won a Group 3 going seven furlongs this past summer and will be making his first start in nearly three months.

Karar won a couple of allowance races before trying group stakes foes in his last three, including a runner-up performance behind Mile contender Limato going seven panels in a Group 1 on the Arc undercard.

Calgary Cat closed from far back to win the G2 Nearctic at Woodbine most recently but does the majority of his racing over the synthetic surface up in Canada. He’s won and placed in his two starts at this distance and will be making his G1 debut.

Suedois finished just behind Karar last out and was second to Limato in the prestigious G1 July Cup this summer at Newmarket but is winless in seven starts this year.

Washington D C has won four of his 15 career starts but is winless against group stakes company in Europe. This sophomore closed well in his last two going five furlongs and should appreciate the projected fast pace and added ground.

A Lot has raced well with gaps in his form, like the 11 week one you’ll see since his last. He set the course record at Belmont for seven furlongs earlier this year when he held on by a nose in the Elusive Quality. Overall, he’s three for four in turf sprints in his career.

Ambitious Slew has the most experience going down the hill at Santa Anita, sporting a five for nine win record with a couple of runner-up performances under his belt. Off the board in the 2014 renewal over the course when beaten just three lengths, he won a division of the G3 Eddie D last out from just a couple of lengths off the pace.

Undrafted missed by just a half-length in his lone start down the hill in the 2014 renewal of this when he finished third and should appreciate that apparent plethora of early speed in here. He’s one for five this year with a score in the G3 Shakertown at Keeneland, his first start since his fifth place finish in this last year.

Om has won half of his six starts at Santa Anita, including the G2 twilight Derby and G2 Mathis Bros. Mile but has never run in a turf sprint. He did win going this distance over the old Del Mar synthetic track back in 2014, a race that featured the debut of the one and only, American Pharoah.

Holy Lute won the slightly quicker division of the Eddie D in just his second win over the course and at the distance from nine tries. He represents trainer Jim Cassidy’s lone win at the meet through the start of Breeders’ Cup Week.

Celestine won a minor stakes last year in a turf sprint but seems to be a bit better at a mile, as evident by her G1 Just a Game tally when she missed the track record by one hundredth of a second back on Belmont Stakes Day. She was wrangled off the pace last out when third in the G1 First Lady at Keeneland and gets a rider change to Joel Rosario.

The also-eligibles in here are the second and third place finishers from last year’s running, Lady Shipman and Green Mask. Lady Shipman has yet to win a race against boys despite taking 12 of her last 18 starts while Green Mask has won just once in 13 tries over the past two seasons.

If I’m Right…

This is the toughest race of the weekend. Sorry I couldn’t give you a “Best” and “Rest” in here but your guess is as good as mine.

Live Longshot

Om has tactical speed, success over the course and a Hall of Fame pilot who knows this course as well as anyone. 12-1 seems to be a fair price but he might even be higher.

BC - Juvenile
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 2YO
Time: 5:43 p.m. ET

The History

Is It True upset the great Easy Goer in 1988. Unbridled’s Song out-dueled Hennessy to win the 1995 running in just his third start. Johannesburg shipped in from across the pond and halted Officer’s winning streak in 2001. Street Sense took the first step in breaking the Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx by winning it in 2006, with Nyquist following in his hoof prints last season. Arazi put on his amazing display in the 1991 renewal at Churchill. In 2014, the Desormeaux brothers, trainer Keith and jockey Kent, teamed up with longshot Texas Red.

Favorites: 11 for 32 (34%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Chief’s Crown, 1984)
Highest: $63.20 (Vale of York, 2009)

The Best

Classic Empire benefited from the addition of blinkers in a big way last out when he powered away to an easy win in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at this distance at Keeneland. He won the first two starts of his career in sprints at Churchill downs despite breaking poorly in both, then wheeled at the start and dumped his rider as the 8-5 chalk in the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga. Bad behavior was nowhere in sight last time out.

Gormley looks to start his career three for three with a pair of impressive scores already on his resume. He dueled on the front end before pulling away to win first out by over four lengths in a Del Mar Sprint before assuming the lead early and opening up late to post a 10-1 upset in the G1 FrontRunner over this course and at this distance last out.

A nose decided who would be perfect and who would suffer defeat for the first time in the G1 Champagne at Belmont last out. Practical Joke got the better of Syndergaard at the end of the one mile thriller despite having a tough start and getting herded in the stretch. It was Practical Joke’s second consecutive G1 tally, as he was coming off of a very professional score in the Hopeful. Hs connections forked over $100K to supplement him to this.

Syndergaard ran one of the best races I’ve ever seen in defeat, having set a blistering half in :44 3/5 while being hounded every step of the way before drifting a bit through the lane to just miss. Previously, he crushed New York bred rivals in a pair of efforts just 17 days apart.

Syndergaard’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, will also send out Theory. One of the more impressive debut winners at Saratoga, it was originally thought that Theory was going to be put away for the year. But his connections brought him back in the G3 Futurity at Belmont in mid-October and he came from just off the pace to win by over three lengths before galloping out strongly an extra half-mile after the race.

The Rest

Klimt had his three race win streak snapped in the FrontRunner when he was left in the wake of Gormley as the heavy 3/10 favorite. Prior to that effort, his first routing, Klimt won a maiden race, the G2 Best Pal and G1 Del Mar Futurity for Bob Baffert, a three time winner of the Juvenile.

Not This Time broke slowly in his debut sprinting when finishing fifth as the 7-5 favorite but made amends in a big way when breaking his maiden going a mile by 10 lengths and winning the G3 Iroquois at Churchill going this distance by almost nine lengths. He’s a half-brother to last year’s Dirt Mile winner Liam’s Map.

Three Rules has dominated the competition in south Florida, winning the first five starts of his career by a combined 31 lengths. Perhaps his most impressive effort was last out, his first at this distance after four sprints, when he won a Florida Stallion Series event by 10 lengths. His rider Cornelio Velasquez is flying in from a winter assignment in Saudi Arabia to retain the mount.

Lookin At Lee won a pair of sprints in his second and third starts before running gaining ground through the stretch to get second in both the Iroquois and Breeders’ Futurity, where he was saddled with post 12. His sire, Lookin At Lucky, just missed in the 2009 Juvenile. He’ll add blinkers for this.

Star Empire tries two turns for the first time off of a second in the Futurity last out. He won the first two starts of his career before a third place finish in the G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity two back.

Terms of Art will try to give trainer Doug O’Neill back to back Juveniles and his third overall, off of just a slow maiden tally last out from three career starts.

If I’m Right…

You’re going to get a good glimpse into the future in this Juvenile. I think it’s loaded with talent and is one of the tougher races on the card. A certain spread race when it comes to multi-race exotics.

Live Longshot

You could look in a few different directions here but I finally settled on Lookin At Lee. He’s improved in all five of his starts and should be in the 20-1 range.

BC - Turf
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 1 ½ miles (T)
Purse: $4 million
Age: 3up
Time: 6:22 p.m. ET

The History

Pebbles in 1985 and Miss Alleged in 1991 are the only two fillies to have beaten the boys in this. Theatrical finally got the job done in 1987 and more importantly helped forge the Bill Mott/Allen Paulson partnership that would rule the sport for a decade. Kotashaan capped an amazing Horse of the Year season with a win in 1993. High Chaparral won it in 2002, then dead-heated with Johar in 2003, the only dead heat for win in Breeders’ Cup history. Better Talk Now won it in 2004 before failing to do so the next four years. Conduit won consecutive runnings in 2008 and 2009. In 2011, trainer Aidan O’Brien trained St. Nicholas Abbey to win with his son Joe in the saddle. Main Sequence won his fourth G1 in as many tries with his patented late run to take it down in 2014.

Favorites: 9 for 32 (28%)
Shortest: $3.80 (High Chaparral, 2002 and Conduit, 2009)
Highest: $108.80 (Lashkari, 1984)
U.S based: 13
Foreign based: 20
The champ is here? Yes. Found, after flirting with a Classic run, winds up back here.

The Best

Flintshire has called the U.S. his home this year after Juddmonte Farms decided to send their globetrotting machine to Chad Brown for the year so he could run on firmer ground that he would over in Europe.

His two prior trips to America, a second in the 2014 renewal behind Main Sequence and powerful tally in the G1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga last season, were the backbone of the plan, and it worked perfectly for the first three starts of the year. He stormed home to win in the G1 Manhattan at Belmont, going the final quarter in under 22 seconds, toyed with three rivals in the G2 Bowling Green and defended his Sword Dancer title when he missed setting the course record by a fifth of a second.

But last out in the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Mother Nature failed to cooperate. Heavy rains left the ground yielding and Flintshire couldn’t make up any ground late on the loose-on-the-lead Ectot and settled for second.

Defending champion Found leads a powerful one-two Coolmore punch. Just before pre entries it was announced that her and stablemate Highland Reel would both be up for this AND the Classic in what would have amounted to be their dirt debuts. Instead, on entry day, both were put in here.

Aidan O’Brien, whose five wins in this event account for half of his Breeders’ Cup total, hasn’t been shy about running Found this year as this will be her tenth race and third in the past five weeks alone. She’s hit the board in all nine prior, including a 9-1 upset of the G1 Arc de Triomphe two starts back before finishing second in the G1 Champions Stakes at Ascot in her most recent. She has followed the same routine and race pattern as she did when conquering Golden Horn in this last year.

Highland Reel’s lone win in seven tries this season came in the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July. He was second in the Juddmonte International behind Postponed and in the Arc last out. He defeated Flintshire to close out last season in the G1 Hong Kong Vase and won his lone U.S. start in the G1 Secretariat against sophomores at Arlington.

The Rest

Ectot figures to try and lead them on a merry chase again after waking up off of a pair of somewhat disappointing performances in his first pair on this side of the Atlantic. A major player in Europe as a juvenile, his upset of the Hirsch was easily the biggest tally of his career.

Mondialiste tries 12 furlongs for the first time off of a score in the G1 Arlington Million going 10 panels and a fourth place finish after a bit of a troubled trip in the G1 Shadwell Mile at Keeneland. He was second behind Tepin in the Mile last season.

Ashleyluvssugar looks to defend his home turf while looking for his third straight though he’s yet to face this tough of a field. He is two for two at the trip over this course and comes into this off of a couple of stalking trip wins in the G2 Del Mar Handicap and G2 John Henry.

Da Big Hoss has earned well over $1 million since Mike Maker claimed him in June of 2015. Overall, he’s won four of his six start at the distance, including the G2 Elkhorn earlier this year, with his only off the board finish coming in this event last year. He’s won his last four at races ranging in distance from this trip to two miles.

Money Multiplier has finished second in three G1 races this year, the Man O’ War, United Nations and Sword dancer, as he seeks his first stakes win of any kind. He briefly tested Ectot last out before finishing last of four in the Hirsch.

Battle-tested Twilight Eclipse, third in the Hirsch, will be making his fourth start in this event for West Point Thoroughbreds on their 25th anniversary and his trainer Tom Albertrani. He was third in this in 2014 over the course.

Ulysses will try to give his trainer Sir Michael Stoute a record tying fifth Turf score when he makes his first start in 10 weeks. Three-year-old was overmatched in his lone Group 1 try in Europe and comes into this off of a narrow miss in a Group 3.

Ralis and Metaboss finished behind Ashleyluvssugar in their last two. Ralis is seeking his first win on turf in six tries while Metaboss looks for his first stakes win on turf. This will be their first starts at the distance. Texas Ryano looks for his first graded stakes win after hitting the board in his last two.

If I’m Right...

This will prove to be one of the most formful races of the weekend. I have a hard time envisioning one of the three chalks not winning this race, with the nod going to Flintshire.

Live Longshot

Da Big Hoss loves the distance and almost always shows up with his “A” game. He’ll be around 12-1 and is the only outsider I can see firing a big shot in here.

BC - Filly & Mare Sprint
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up (f&m)
Time: 7:01 p.m. ET

The History

Run at six furlongs in 2007 because Monmouth Park isn’t configured for the intended distance. Groupie Doll became the first back to back winner in 2013.

Favorites: 3 for 9 (37%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Groupie Doll, 2012)
Highest: $42.40 (Musical Romance, 2011)
The champ is here? Yes, Wavell Avenue will be looking to join Groupie Doll as the only repeat winners of the event.

The Best

After spending most of her career in the Midwest as a minor stakes horse, New York bred Haveyougoneaway finally made it to the Big Apple this past spring and was moved into Tom Morley’s barn. All she’s done since is become a multiple graded stakes winner.

After running second in the mud in her first start for her new trainer, Haveyougoneaway has rattled off three straight. She won a NY bred stakes three back before closing to win both the G2 Honorable Miss and G1 Ballerina, at this distance, at Saratoga. This will be her first start in 10 weeks.

Carina Mia looks to cap a solid sophomore season as she cuts back to a sprint having set the pace in the G1 Cotillion last out when second to Songbird. It was the second time in three starts she was second to Songbird having tried the big filly on the far turn in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks.

In between those two, she got caught up in a bit of a speed duel before settling for third in the Ballerina. Earlier in the season she won the G2 Eight Belles at this distance and the G1 Acorn around a one turn mile.

Paulassilverlining posted the biggest win of her career when she gutted out a three-quarter length victory over a muddy Belmont strip in the G2 Gallant Bloom last out. Fifth after dueling with Carina Mia in the Ballerina, she won the G2 Distaff at Aqueduct in the spring, handing Cavorting her lone defeat of the season at this trip as well as the G3 Vagrancy at Belmont.

Defending champ Wavell Avenue has one just once this season, a minor stakes at Saratoga, in six tries since she ran down La Verdad in last year’s renewal. Third in the Gallant Bloom where she raced inside most of the way, she could use a bit of a better trip and quick pace to run at in here.

The Rest

By the Moon was outkicked to the wire when second in the Ballerina after defeating Wavell Avenue in the G3 Bed of Roses at this distance. She’s need considerable time between races as of late and this will be her first start in 10 weeks.

Finest City return from a nine week break and cuts back to a dirt sprints having routed in her last two starts. Her lone victory in seven starts this year came in the G2 Great Lady M back in April at Los Alamitos.

Gloryzapper took the G3 L A Woman when she found herself on the lead for the first time in a sprint. Overall, she’s three for four with a second place finish around one turn including a victory in her lone try at this distance.

Gomo goes turf to dirt having finished fourth in the Unzip Me on the downhill turf course in her most recent, her first start in six months. Last year, she won the G1 Alcibiades in the slop at Keeneland going a distance of ground.

Irish Jasper scored her first stakes win in over a year when she got up despite a poor start to take the G2 TCA at Keeneland most recently. She won the G3 Miss Preakness and G3 Victory Ride last year as a three-year-old.

Paola Queen upset the G1 Test at this distance at 55-1 two back then came back off an eight week break to run last in the G1 Beldame going nine furlongs in the mud at Belmont. Overall, she won two of three starts at this trip with a runner-up finish as well.

Spelling Again is just one for seven this year but that win did come going seven panels in the G2 Princess Rooney down at Gulfstream Park for trainer Brad Cox.

Tara’s Tango added blinkers to win the G1 Santa Margarita this past winter, then took the G3 rancho Bernardo two back off of a four month break. Last out she was a well-beaten fourth behind Stellar Win and Beholder in the G1 Zenyatta going two turns.

Wonder Gal is undefeated in three starts against New York breds but winless in 11 tries against open company. She finished third in the Juvenile Fillies two years back, her lone start at Santa Anita.

If I’m Right…

This is one of the more puzzling races of the weekend because there is no true stand-out amongst these fillies. My knee-jerk reaction to this being part of the late Pick 4 was befuddlement but now I see why it’s in the sequence.

Live Longshot

Gloryzapper likes the track, loves sprinting and seems to be coming into the race the right way. If she steps up her game just a bit, she’ll have a major say in things at 12-1 or better.

BC - Mile
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up
Time: 4:40 p.m. ET

The History

Where should I start?!?! Four horses have won multiple runnings, starting with Miesque beating the boys in 1987 and 1988. The speedy Lure won back to back runnings in 1992 and 1993 before failing to accomplish the three-peat in 1994. Da Hoss, amazingly, won it in 1996, ran once in between then re-rallied in the final strides to win it two years later in 1998. And, of course, Goldikova won three in a row from 2008 through 2010 before finishing third in 2011. In 2012, Wise Dan capped off his Horse of the Year campaign with a popular Mile score over 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and came back to defend his Mile title in 2013. It’s worth noting that Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head has won three and is a five-time Mile winner and the only person to win a Breeders’ Cup race as a trainer and a jockey, as he was the regular rider of Miesque.

Favorites: 11 for 32 (34%)
Shortest: $3.60 (Wise Dan, 2012)
Highest: $131.60 (Court Vision, 1986)
U.S based: 19
Foreign based: 13
The champ is here? Yes. The “Queen of the Turf,” Tepin is back to defend her crown.

The Best

Tepin capped off an amazing 2015 campaign with an impressive tally in this event and now looks to follow in the hoof prints of great fillies like Miesque and Goldikova as repeat winners of the event.

Tepin won six in a row to start this season. A couple of wins in the G3 Endeavour and G2 Hillsborough in course record time at Tampa Bay Downs was followed by scores in the G1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland and title defense of the G2 Distaff Turf Mile on Derby Day at Churchill Downs.

A historic trip and win at the Royal Ascot win against the boys in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes going a flat mile on the straight away course followed. A three month break and workmanlike, gutsy score in the G1 Woodbine Mile brought her overall win streak to eight.

And then Photo Call got loose on the lead in the G1 First Lady, a race Tepin won by daylight to start her win streak last season, and she had to settle for second. Overall, she is seven for nine with two seconds at the mile distance with 5 G1s to her name.

Fellow filly Miss Temple City and her connections have avoided Tepin at all costs this season. In two instances, they took on the boys instead. And in two instances, Miss Temple City won G1s.

Instead of trying the Jenny Wiley, Graham Motion ran Miss Temple City in the Makers 46 Mile and she parlayed a perfect trip into her biggest win. Three loses, including one at Royal Ascot, followed before she stalked the early pace in the Shadwell Turf Mile, a race she was entered in as opposed to the First Lady, before holding on by a long head.

Ironicus came flying through the lane to miss by that head in the Shadwell last out for Hall of famer Shug McGaughey who won back-to-back runnings of this in the early 90’s with Lure.

Ironicus has made just three starts this season. A win in the G3 Fort Marcy, his first start in eight months, preceded a solid runner-up performance behind Flintshire in the 10 furlong G1 Manhattan where he found a bit of traffic trouble in deep stretch.

Alice Springs ships over from Europe for Aidan O’Brien off of two straight Group 1 tallies at the distance. Last year, she just missed despite racing a bit greenly through the lane to Tepin’s stablemate Catch a Glimpse in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She’s drawn post 2 and should get a favorable, covered up trip under regular rider Ryan Moore. It’s worth noting that this will be her first tilt against the boys.

The Rest

Midnight Storm will wave the California flag in here on a three race win streak. He won the G1 Shoemaker Mile over this course in June then a pair of G2 races, the Eddie Read and Del Mar Mile, at Del Mar this summer for trainer Phil D’Amato in front running fashion.

Photo Call got the second G1 of her career in the First lady last out. Her first came last season at Santa Anita in the 10 furlong Rodeo Drive, a race she used as a prep for the Filly and Mare Turf where she finished fifth.

Ring Weekend won the biggest race of his career over this course back in 2015 when he came running through the lane to win the Kilroe Mile. He’s won just once in four starts since a 14 month layoff when he took the G2 Bernard Baruch at Saratoga two starts back.

Tourist just missed in both the Shoemaker Mile and Shadwell last out when second and third, respectively. In between those two, he scored the biggest win of his career when he took the G1 Fourstardave at the Spa. This is his third consecutive appearance in this event.

What a View won four in a row, including this year’s Kilroe Mile, before the win streak came to an end when he was eighth in the Shadwell, his first start in six months. What a View is a perfect five for five over this course.

Limato is one of Europe’s top sprinters as evident by his scores in the G1 July Cup and six furlongs and G1 Prix de la Foret at seven panels but appeared to have some distance limitations in his lone try at a mile earlier this season.

O’Brien will send out a couple of longshots to go with Alice Springs in the form of Cougar Mountain and Hit It a Bomb. Cougar Mountain finished far behind Tepin at Royal Ascot, has just a Group 2 win from eight starts this year and is just three for 19 overall. Hit It a Bomb won all three of his juvenile tries, including the Juvenile Turf at 7-1 but is winless in three starts since.

Dutch Connection won a Group 2 three starts back but was off the board in his last two against Group 1 foes. He finished fifth as the tepid 7-2 favorite in last year’s Shadwell, his lone U.S. start.

Spectre gets Javier Castellano for her stateside debut while seeking her first G1 tally. Winless in her last four, she won a Group 3 against sophomore fillies to start the season.

If I’m Right…

Tepin is over the top and is a good bet against. At the age of five and coming off a ton of travel, she’s looked very beatable in her last two since her trip to England. Maybe she rebounds but my money is against it.

Live Longshot

Tourist is reunited with Joel Rosario and should work out the right trip from his mid-pack draw behind the first group of speed. 10-1 or higher is sufficient.

BC - Classic
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 1 ¼ miles
Purse: $6 million
Age: 3up
Time: 8:35 p.m. ET

The History

You knew this race was aptly named after the stretch run of the inaugural running when eventual winner Wild Again played bumper cars along with Slew o’ Gold and Gate Dancer. Ferdinand won the battle of the Kentucky Derby winners over Alysheba in 1987 before Alysheba claimed his own classic victory the following year.

In the final chapter of their brief, yet intense rivalry, Sunday Silence held off the desperate surge of Easy Goer to win in 1989. Jerry Bailey won three in a row, starting in 1993 with Arcangues, the longest priced winner in Breeders’ Cup history and ending with the great Cigar in 1995 who capped a perfect 10-for-10 season with a fantastic score. Awesome Again split rivals in deep stretch to win a wild one in 1998 over Silver Charm and Swain.

Tiznow gutted out two of the greatest wins over a pair of tough Europeans, Giant’s Causeway and Sakhee, in 2000 and 2001 respectively, making his trainer Jay Robbins and the great Charlie Whittingham the only two time winners of the race.

Volponi blew up the tote board, then the Pick 6 scandal, in 2002 with his win at 43-1. Ghostzapper set the stakes record with a gate-to-wire, tour de force victory in 2004. Curlin capped his Horse of the Year campaign in 2007 with a win before finishing fourth the following year on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.

The great Zenyatta kept the undefeated dream alive with a remarkable last-to-first run in 2009 before falling a head short of Blame in the 2010 renewal and finishing her career with 19 wins from 20 starts. In 2014, Bayern made a left turn coming out of the gate before going gate-to-wire, holding off Toast of New York and California Chrome in another whale of a photo.

Last year, American Pharoah capped off a historic, legendary season by winning the Triple Crown in the spring and Classic in the fall with a brilliant, gate-to-wire score.

It’s the Classic indeed!!!!

Favorites: 9 for 32 (28%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Cigar, 1995 & American Pharoah, 2015)
Highest: $269.20 (Arcangues, 1993) *Highest price in history of the Breeders’ Cup*
The champ is here? No, American Pharoah was retired to stud after his historic victory/

The Best

He’s the leading money winner in the history of North American Thoroughbreds. He’s won classics like the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, the world’s richest race in the Dubai World Cup and four other Grade 1 races in a 24 race career. Now, California Chrome looks to add the Classic to his resume.

After an abbreviated four-year-old campaign, he’s been the best he’s ever been at the age of five. He’s won all six of his starts this year, including the two in Dubai as well as the G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar and G1 Awesome Again over the course.

He’s won gate-to-wire and from just off of the pace. He’s even managed to apparently overcome his inability to deal with being inside of other horses, a credit to trainer Art Sherman and his team.

He had his chance to win this back in 2014, when he couldn’t have sat a better trip under Victor Espinoza but couldn’t close the deal. The same way he couldn’t close out the Triple Crown when Tonalist handled him in the Belmont Stakes. The same way the late Shared Belief ran by him like he was standing still in the winter of 2015.

He’ll get his chance to shoot down whatever “neigh-sayers” he has left with a win in here.

He’ll have to face a horse in Arrogate whose best effort crushes his. That best effort came last out, some 10 weeks ago at Saratoga when he turned what looked like a competitive G1 Travers field, one that featured the Belmont and Preakness winners, into a one-horse show. He won the 10 furlong Midsummer Derby by over 13 lengths and stopped the clock in 1:59 1/5, the fastest 1 ¼ miles in the history of one of the nation’s most historic and cherished racetracks.

Before that breakthrough effort, he won three in a row, including two over this course, against far lesser after missing in his debut sprinting. His Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is looking for his record-setting third Classic, having won the last two with Bayern and Triple Crown champ American Pharoah, who Baffert ran in here off of the very same type of layoff. Jockey Mike Smith will be looking for his fourth Classic win.

The Rest

Frosted ran arguably the most impressive race by any horse this year, when he returned from Dubai off of a fifth place finish in the World Cup to win the prestigious G1 Metropolitan Handicap by over 14 lengths in 1:32 3/5. He sat mid-pack behind solid opening fractions before pouncing on the leaders on the far turn and drawing off under a hand ride by Joel Rosario.

Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who won this 10 years ago with Invasor, Frosted won the G1 Whitney in gate-to-wire fashion two back before Rosario gave him an overconfident ride just four weeks later in the G1 Woodward where he fell a neck short and finished third. He’ll get nine weeks between starts for this and should work out a great trip.

Melatonin is your quintessential horse-for-the-course. Just one for nine over other surfaces, he’s a perfect four for four on the dirt at Santa Anita for his trainer Dave Hofmans, who sprung a huge upset in the Classic 20 years ago when Alphabet Soup conquered Cigar at Woodbine.

Three of those Great Race Place wins occurred earlier the year, with two coming at this distance in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap on the front end and in the Gold Cup from just off of the early pace. In fact, this is his first start since the Gold Cup over four months ago. Joe Talamo rides.

Effinex has done some of the best work of his career since he chased American Pharoah in this last year when he finished a surprising second with his newfound speed. He won the first and only G1 of his career in the Clark to close out 2015, took the G2 Oaklawn Park Handicap in April, avenging his third place to Melatonin in the Big Cap and defended his G2 Suburban title at Belmont Park.

Overall, Effinex has hit the board in seven of his eight starts at the distance, including three wins and over $2 million in earnings. Flavien Prat rides for the first time for trainer Jimmy Jerkens, who’ll also send out Woodward winner Shaman Ghost.

As a three-year-old in 2015, Shaman Ghost won four of his six starts, including Canada’s version of the Kentucky Derby, the Queen’s Plate. He was transferred to Jerkens at the start of the year and debuted to a third place finish in an allowance/optional claimer before galloping home in the 12 furlong G2 Brooklyn.

An off the board finish in the Suburban prompted Jerkens to add Lasix and Shaman Ghost was given a heady ride by Javier Castellano to get the money in the Woodward last out. Irad Ortiz will ride him for the first time.

Baffert will also send out Hoppertunity, who is surprisingly making his Breeders’ Cup debut at the age of five. He shipped to the New York for the first time in his 22 start career for the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out after scratching out of the Awesome Again a week earlier.

Hoppertunity was much closer to a dawdling pace and made a nifty move between horses under a returning John Velazquez before getting up in the final strides by a half-length over Effinex for the second G1 of his career. Another who loves the course, he’s hit the board in nine of his 11 starts over the surface with three victories.

Keen Ice will make his second start for new trainer Todd Pletcher, who’s looking for his first Classic score, since a failed run at Dubai earlier this year. Last year, Keen Ice was of course the only horse to defeat American Pharoah when he got up in the last few strides of the Travers.

He’s done nothing since. In five starts since, he’s hit the board just once when he closed to be third in a second level allowance/optional claimer at Belmont going a mile in which he galloped out strongly past the field. Javier Castellano, the pilot of 2004 Classic record-holder Ghostzapper, will ride.

Win the Space and War Story are both seeking their first stakes win of any kind in America’s richest race. Win the Space was second in the Gold Cup and third in both the G2 San Diego and last out in the Awesome Again for George Papapadromou. Gary Stevens, who won this in 2013 with Mucho Macho Man, has the call.

War Story will look to pull an Arcangues, a reference to the 133-1, 1993 Classic winner, as he appears hopelessly overmatched for Mario Serey, Jr and Scott Speith.

If I’m Right…

A combination of California Chrome, Arrogate and Melatonin figure to mix it up, to some degree, through the first six or seven furlongs, seemingly leaving them vulnerable. I don’t think California Chrome will win this race.

Live Longshot

Shaman Ghost has won going the distance over synthetic, at 1 ½ miles on conventional dirt and ran very well when adding Lasix last out. He should work out a pretty good trip and be in the 15-1 range.

Saturday Analysis
By Steve Haskin
Bloodhorse.com

The stars will be out in force Saturday, as California Chrome, Arrogate, Tepin, Lady Eli, Flintshire, Frosted and a host of Aidan O’Brien horses, headed by iron filly Found, will be on display in what promises to be a memorable day of racing.

Let’s cut right to the chase. Remember, I’m looking for prices and potential overlays, so I’m taking several chances on angles rather than simply who is the best horse and likeliest winner.

JUVENILE FILLIES – Like several of the Breeders’ Cup races this year, I have no strong feelings here, other than to say I made up mind who would be high on my list immediately after I watched Daddy’s Lil Darling close from the clouds with a sensational stretch run to finish second in the Alcibiades Stakes despite breaking from the disadvantageous 14 post and dropping to the back of the pack. The daughter of Scat Daddy has run big races in all four of her starts, including an impressive score in the Pocahontas Stakes in the mud and an eight-length romp in a maiden race at Ellis Park. She did not draw well again, but I’ll take a chance she’ll be able to work out a decent trip.

I can’t decide how good the local-based fillies or top Eastern fillies are, so I am going to also focus on two fillies who have a lot to prove, but have shown enough to suggest they could be stars in the making. They are Jamyson ‘n Ginger, who many will feel ran lights out in her maiden victory because of the slop, and Mark Casse’s Keeneland brilliant maiden winner Valadorna.

Forget Jamyson ‘n Ginger’s lofty 103 Beyer speed figure and forget that it was in the slop. This filly is bred to run all day and improved dramatically stretching out to a mile, demolishing her foes by 15 1/4 lengths at Belmont. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez is excellent with young fillies and who knows how good this daughter of Bernardini really is?

The same goes for Valadorna, who was very impressive breaking her maiden by six lengths stretching out to 1 1/16 miles following a terrific effort going a mile at Churchill Downs, in which she broke slowly, dropped back to last in the 10-horse field and closed fast to get the place, beaten one length. She followed up her maiden score with a bullet five-furlong breeze in :59 3/5, fastest of 24 works at the distance. The way this filly ran, opening up in the stretch the way she did, she could very well be something special.

So, just for the heck of it, I’m going to hope these fillies are talented enough to step up in class and perform at this level.

Exacta and trifecta box -- I will box Daddy’s Lil Darling, Jamyson ‘n Ginger, and Valadorna, and bet them to win if they are high enough, especially Daddy’s Lil Darling, who is 12-1 on the morning line. For a fourth horse in the box, I could throw in Chandelier winner Noted and Quoted off her last work, which I thought was very impressive.

FILLY AND MARE TURF – This is a tough one. Aidan O’Brien’s dual Oaks winner Seventh Heaven, conqueror of Found in the Yorkshire Oaks will take a ton of money and no doubt is a very talented filly. But if you’re trying to beat her, she has thrown in several clunkers and was beaten into fifth at 6-5 in the British Champions Filly and Mare Stakes at Ascot in her last start, although she didn't have the best of trips. Some also blame the ground, but it was listed as good and the final time of 2:28 2/5 for the 1 1/2 miles seems pretty solid. She may very well be the best filly in this race and should be in all the exotics, but this race has produced some wild upsets..

Three total unknowns in here are the Chilean-bred Kitcat, the Peruvian invader Ryans Charm, and the Japanese-trained Nuovo Record, all exceptional fillies in their home country. Kitcat made her U.S. debut in the Swingtime Stakes at a mile and finished a good second in fast time, so she should benefit from that effort. And she came back to work a sharp five furlongs in :59 3/5, while Ryans Charm, who has been here since the summer, has been working sharply as well. At odds of 30-1 on Ryans Charm and 20-1 on Kitcat, who knows? Nuovo Record drew post 13, which won’t help, but she may be rounding into form after a productive year last year, finishing second in the Hong Kong Cup to arguably Japan’s best horse, A Shin Hikari. And the majority of her races have been against the boys. I loved the way she gets over the ground, even though she needs to change leads.

But I’m going to stick with the American fillies, headed, of course, by the remarkable Lady Eli. I’m also extremely high on her stablemate Sea Calisi. This ia a filly who last year finished third to the great Treve in France and was beaten two necks in the Yorkshire Oaks. All four of her starts in the U.S. have been superior efforts, including a come-from-the-clouds victory in the grade I Beverly D. In her last start, the Flower Bowl, she was coming off a two-month layoff and did not appreciate the slow pace and then having to outclose Lady Eli, who came home her last quarter in :22 4/5. She fell two lengths short in third, but should improve off that race over a firm course that she loves.

I’m also going to include the E.P. Taylor winner Al’s Gal, who turned in perhaps the gutsiest effort I’ve seen all year winning at Woodbine. She can stalk the pace or come from way out of it, as she did when beaten a half-length by Sea Calisi in the Beverly D., and is as consistent as they come and could pick up a piece of it.

Exacta and trifecta box – Lady Eli, Sea Calisi, Al’s Gal, and just for the heck of it I’ll throw in Nuovo Record at a price. My win bet at 8-1 would be on Sea Calisi.

SPRINT – This race has been decimated with the loss of Lord Nelson and Joking, reducing the field to seven. Lord Nelson had been my selection all year, going all the way back to last year when he beat Texas Red in the San Vicente. To me, this race no longer is worth betting, as there will be no value. If Drefong, Masochistic, and Delta Bluesman manage to cook each other, it could sit up for A. P. Indian or if you want a price, Mind Your Biscuits, although he’s been running against 3-year-olds.

Drefong and Masochistic are coming off seven-furlong races, while Delta Bluesman is coming off a five-furlong race, so perhaps he can outrun both of them.

If forced to make a bet, I’d probably go with Drefong, because he’s proven he can win from just off the pace and Masochistic probably will be the favorite. So how about a straight exacta box of Drefong and A.P. Indian and that’s it.

TURF SPRINT – Pure confusion. I’m not even going to analyze this one, as it is a pure crap shoot. The Aidan O’Brien-trained Washington DC has a monster closing kick that could be ideal for this race, I love horses coming off a big effort in the Prix de l’Abbaye, and he’s dropping 13 pounds off that race, in which he was narrowly beaten in a 17-horse field and closing fastest of all.

I also believe this could set up for Undrafted, who can beat anyone on his best day, and his last, the Woodford Stakes, was much better than it looks on paper. This race normally is won by local horses used to coming down the hill, but he did close like a powerhouse in this race two years ago, finishing third by a half-length. He also gets John Velazquez back and will be coming fast at the end.

For the horses more likely to be racing in midpack, I’m looking for a big effort from Om, dropping back in distance from mile races, and I’ll throw in Obviously, even though this may be too short for him. But he’s a tough old warrior, and what a story if he can win this race after four attempts at the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

There are several other talented Europeans, but I’m not sure they are fast enough, not being familiar with coming down the hill.

Exacta and triefecta box – Washington DC, Undrafted, Om, and Obviously box. And I would bet Om, Undrafted, and Washington DC to win at decent prices.

JUVENILE – I devoted an entire column to this race earlier in the week. This race is so competitive and deep it’s difficult separating all the talent, which will be coming from all over. Based on that column I am going to take a shot that Syndergaard, breaking from post 2, can be the speed of the speed and outrun Gormley and Three Rules into the first turn. A one-turn mile at Belmont is more grueling on a horse than 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita, and if Syndergaard is as fast and game as he was in the Champagne, he just might love his first crack at two turns and be able to take this field wire to wire.

Beating Derby-type horses such as Not This Time (who looks like the wise guy horse, especially after his impressive work over the track), Classic Empire, Practical Joke, Theory, and Klimt, as well as the brilliant pace horses Three Rules and Gormley is no easy assignment, but I need some kind of angle and I just can’t separate the others, and that includes Lookin At Lee getting blinkers.

This time I’ll probably just bet Syndergaard to win or, depending on his price, wheel him on top with the others mentioned above. If you want to protect yourself you can box him in the exacta with those others instead. But I’ll just go all in with him, and also put a saver on Practical Joke, because I believe he's going to be overlooked and is a much better horse than people think. If I bet another exotic it'll be a Practical Joke - Syndergaard exacta box, or the Champagne again both ways. I would also put a saver on Three Rules in case he is really as good as he’s looked. He has all the makings of a class horse, Florida Stallion Series races or not.

If Syndergaard can’t shake free from Gormley and Three Rules and gets inhaled by the others, then it’s simply time to start thinking Derby and there’s nothing wrong with that. But for now, I'm looking at Syndergaard to take this field on a merry, but futile chase. And remember, Pletcher horses always break like a bullet, so he should get the jump on everyone out of the gate.

TURF – Is it possible that back-to-back Todd Pletcher horses can take their field wire to wire? There really is not much speed in this race other than Ectot, and many may feel his Turf Classic win was a fluke on softish ground in a four-horse field that compromised the chances of Flintshire.

Let’s remember that Ectot is by an Arc de Triomphe and Irish Derby winner and was regarded highly enough to be sent off at 6-1 in the Arc last year after winning the Prix Niel. Before that he defeated Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie in the one-mile Prix de Fontainebleau. In his race before the Turf Classic, he was beaten a nose in a sharp 2:25 flat for the mile and a half, stretching out from 1 1/16 miles. Ectot is a big strapping handsome horse with a monster stride that is capable of running his opponents into the ground.

It’s not going to be easy beating Flintshire on firm ground, and certainly not going to be easy beating stablemates Found and Highland Reel. But the two O’Brien horses are coming off hard campaigns competing against the best horses in Europe, while Ectot is still a fresh horse. And on the European front, never dismiss Michael Stoute, and he has a horse in Ulysses who is getting good and had a terrific work over the Santa Anita course. And he is by super stud Galileo

The only horse seemingly capable of putting any kind of pressure on Ectot is Ashleyluvssugar, who is a hard-knocking, consistent horse coming off back-to-back grade II wins and Gary Stevens is not the type to let a horse steal a race on him. So we’ll have to see how he plays it. Ectot is more than capable of slowing the pace down and is such a strong galloper, a little bit of pressure shouldn’t bother him.

Like with Syndergaard I’m just looking for an angle here rather than try separating Flintshire, Found, Highland Reel, and Da Big Hoss, and even Mondialiste and some of the others.

Exacta and trifecta – Ectot on top of those mentioned above in the exactas, and back end in an exacta with Flintshire, Found, Ulysses, and Highland Reel on top. You can also put him on top of those four in the trifecta. If Ectot goes off at or near his 8-1 morning line odds, you can simply play him to win and get good value. But watch out for Ulysses, who apparently loves this course and will be overlooked because of the powerful O'Brien pair.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT – This is a totally wide-open affair with no standout and literally 10 to 12 horses who have a legitimate shot to win. The way Haveyougoneaway has been closing every race and the distance drop backs by top-class fillies Tara’s Tango and Carina Mia, you have three top choices, not to mention last year’s winner Wavell Avenue, who seems to have lost a step this year, but is coming off a good sharpener in the 6 1/2-furlong Gallant Bloom Handicap, won by the hard-knocking Paulassilverlining, whose stablemate By the Moon is coming off a narrow defeat to Haveyougoneaway in the grade I Ballerina Stakes. And you can’t ignore TCA Stakes winner Irish Jasper or Test winner Paola Queen or LA Woman winner GloryzapperGot all that?

So with so many fast, classy fillies in this race, why am I looking at a 20-1 shot with only two starts this year and one start since April? Well it could be stupidity or the inability to separate the others, or simply looking for a bomb.

The horse in question is Gomo, a daughter of Uncle Mo from the Doug O’Neill barn. Not only do you have the grass to dirt angle, with Gomo coming off a fast-closing fourth, beaten 1 1/4 lengths, in the 6 1/2-furlog Unzip Me Stakes at Santa Anita at 18-1, her first start in six months, she has run her best dirt races coming off grass races.

After romping in a one-mile maiden race on grass, she finished a solid second in the 6 1/2-furlong Sorrento Stakes at odds of 19-1. After finishing third in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf, she shipped to Keeneland and won the grade I Alcibiades Stakes by almost three lengths. She apparently is over her physical issues from early this year and once again returns to the dirt off a sharp effort on grass. Hey, what do you want for 20-1?

Her last workout, six furlongs in 1:15, is nothing to rave about, but I’m going to ignore it, partly out of ignorance and knowing that Doug O’Neill horses often have strange workout times. I was impressed with this filly’s performance in the Alcibiades, and even though it as last year, she still looked like a quality filly and I’ll take a stab with her.

The other intriguing longshot with the grass to dirt angle is Finest City, coming off a head defeat in the grade II John C. Mabee Stakes and a close fourth in the grade II Yellow Ribbon Stakes. Prior to that she was third behind Beholder and Stellar Wind in the Vanity Mile, and in her last sprint, she captured grade II Great Lady M Stakes going away, and she gets the services of Mike Smith. Do not ignore this filly who is listed at 12-1.

Exacta and trifecta box -- I’m going to save myself the anguish of separating all the main contenders and bet Gomo and Finest City to win and box each one in the exacta with Haveyougoneaway, Carina Mia, and Tara’s Tango. If you’re daring enough you can also box them in the trifecta.

MILE – Again, there are too many horses to like, and I would love to see Tepin win, but this is a tougher race than last year. I was glad to hear trainer Mark Casse say he believes she’s as good as ever, so we’ll see.

To make this brief, I am going to make a trifecta box with Tepin, Ironicus, Alice Springs, Limato, and Spectre. Nothing earth shattering here. And even with that, there are several I like that I am not including. Of these I think Limato may be the big danger, but 7-2 is too low for me. I do know that Ironicus will be flying late, and Spectre could be worth a win bet at 20-1.

CLASSIC – Normally, I can single out one price horse I like to possibly upset the proverbial apple cart. But I really can’t this time. And if I want to take a negative approach and explain why California Chrome might be vulnerable, I would say, by drawing post 4 with no speed inside him, a sharp and fresh Melatonin breaking in the middle and Arrogate having to bust out of there from the far outside, California Chrome could wind up where he does not like to be, stuck on the inside, with two of the main contenders keeping him pinned down.

But with such a long run to the first turn, anything can happen, so I’m not going to dwell on the ways California Chrome might be compromised.

Two of the horses inside Chrome, Effinex on the rail and Frosted in post 2, are the type of horses who can be placed anywhere, and although they like to get a good position early, it is highly doubtful their riders are going to ask them for too much speed, so I look for them to suck back ever so slightly and tuck in behind California Chrome. Shaman Ghost likely will stay pretty much in touch from the outside.

The question is, will the riders of Chrome, Arrogate, and Melatonin try to slow the pace down or will they all be competitive enough to assure a fast pace? Will one try for the lead with the other two content to let him? This likely is where the scenario of the race will be decided. Will Chrome get clear of those two, will he be pinned down inside them, or will Espinoza take back and try to ease to the outside in a stalking position. Either way, it should be a pretty contentious pace; not necessarily fast, but contentious.

As we have no idea what Arrogate is going to do and how good he really is, you’re just guessing and speculating with him. He could be a budding superstar or a one-hit wonder. He shows all the signs of being a powerhouse of a horse, with that humongous stride, but he still has to show it one more time.

If California Chrome is going be vulnerable enough to get beat, the logical one to pull off the dastardly deed is Frosted, if he can come close to duplicating his other-worldly performance in the Met Mile and even his impressive Whitney score.

I thought Keen Ice ran a very good race returning off his Dubai debacle, squeezing through a narrow opening on the rail and closing fast late, and was five in front about 50 yards past the wire in a mile race run in a snappy 1:33 1/5. Hoppertunity appears to be feeling good about himself after his confidence builder in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and you can see it in his training this past week. He will be closing and should once again pick up the pieces late. Can you imagine the ironic twist if Baffert wins the Classic, but does it with "Hopper." You can bet no one close to this likeable horse will be disappointed. Effinex is always capable of being right there, as is Shaman Ghost. So this is a pick ‘em group.

With all that said, there is no way I can go against California Chrome, but do acknowledge the possibility of a compromising trip that he will have to overcome. I can also see Chrome and Arrogate separating themselves from the rest of the field, they are that much faster. If Arrogate, whose last two works have been sensational, comes close to repeating his Travers, there may not be a horse alive who can run with him. With that in mind, if you want to make a win bet that will return at least a decent profit, then Frosted as third choice would seem the logical way to go. He looks fantastic physically, probably was not at his very best in the Woodward, in which he ran 40 feet farther than the winner, and looks like he could be sitting on a peak performance. This is not a race for a major betting coup in my opinion. California Chrome is the man, Arrogate is still the mystery horse with unlimited upside, and Frosted is the logical win play to make some mone in case he runs back to his Met Mile.

This is just a race to watch and enjoy and hope California Chrome gets a good trip and is able to put in his best effort. A victory would be a magnificent end to a great Breeders’ Cup, and if he gets beat fair and square, then a well-earned congratulations to the winner.

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com

California Chrome in the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is the headliner but we have nine championship races on tap and tons of great betting opportunities.

The Breeders’ Cup races kicks off Saturday with the fourth race on the 12-race card at Santa Anita, a field of 12 going in the $1 million Juvenile Fillies (G1).

It’s an east-west showdown between Frizette (G1) winner Yellow Agate and Spinaway winner Sweet Loretta shipping in from New York to take on Chandelier (G1) winner Noted and Quoted and Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner Union Strike.

Toss in Dancing Rags, the winner of the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland, and we are going to get off to a rousing start.

The $1 million Filly & Mare Turf (G1) drew an international field of 13, with Lady Eli everyone’s favorite. The filly has overcome a bout with laminitis to make it back to the track and probably goes off as the betting favorite.

She faces a few tough Euro shippers in Queen’s Trust and Seventh Heaven, and don’t dismiss her stablemate Sea Calisi.

The $1.5 million Sprint will feature just seven with the scratches of Lord Nelson and Joking. The best of the east is A.P. Indian, who rides a four race winning streak. Masochistic and Defrong are going to be heard from and have the home field advantage.

The $1 million Turf Sprint is a wide open affair and usually goes to horses with experience going the 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill course. That could give the edge to Ambitious Brew, but he faces a talented group including a few Euros who have never won this race.

The early favorite for the Kentucky Derby will be produced in the $1 million Juvenile. There are some promising colts including Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner Classic Empire and Frontrunner (G1) winner Klimt. If you are playing the Pick 6, go deep here.

The $4 million Turf goes through defending champion Found, who won this year’s Arc (G1). He stablemate Highland Reel looks legit as does Flintshire and possibly longshot Money Multiplier.

The $1 million Filly & Mare Sprint drew 13 led by Carina Mia who cuts back in distance after being unable to handle Songbird. She catches a solid group including defending champion Wavell Avenue.

Tepin is the defending champion in the Mile but after she was upset in the First Lady (G1) last out at Keenland, perhaps she can be beaten. The Euros include Alice Springs and Limato and they must catch the speedy Photo Call, who upset Tepin in the First Lady.

The $6 million Classic is going to be a great way to end the day. Can Frosted or Arrogate run back to their huge numbers they earned earlier this year?

California Chrome has looked so good this year, but at even money, we have to take a stab against him, don’t we?

My Breeders’ Cup Package includes my full card report for Saturday along with my 38-page 2016 Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide, with everything you need to pad your wagering bankroll.

To purchase my Breeders’ Cup Package, Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Alw $50,000s (12:20 ET)
#8 Proud Zip 3-1
#4 Sir Alfred 2-1
#2 Cause for Surprise 5-1
#1 Will Did It 4-1

Analysis: Proud Zip stumbled coming out of the gate, pressed the early pace and finished gamely to just miss by a neck last out at this level going six furlongs on turf. He broke his maiden on the main track at Belmont Park two back going a mile over a wet track. he should get a good tracking trip behind the speed here breaking from the outside and picks up Gallardo.

Sir Alfred prompted the early pace and came with a good five wide bid taking over and beating $50,000 non-winners of two last out at Keeneland in a sharp effort. the Pletcher trainee owns a slid pace profile throughout and finds a good spot here facing starter allowance foes as he came up short in three tries against Alw-1 company after breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park back in April off a year layoff. He has now landed in the exacta in 7 of 9 career starts and is the logical one to beat here as the favorite.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,8 / 1,2,4,8
TRI: 4,8 / 1,2,4,8 / 1,2,3,4,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Tempted G3 (4:07 ET)
#6 Eloquent Riddle 6-1
#2 Sky Gesture 7-2
#1 Cursor 3-1
#4 Miss Sky Warrior 5-2

Analysis: Eloquent Riddle was a good looking maiden winner in her debut and while she did not earn a high speed figure she did it well and looks to have some upside. She was bumped coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace, angled down to the inside for running room in the stretch and finished up well. By Harlan's Holiday out of a Distorted Humor mare, her first foal to race, she should get better with more ground. Brown hits at a 31% clip (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.

Sky Gesture went gate to wire to break her maiden in her debut and then stumbled coming out of the gate last out in the Frizette (G1), tracked the early pace and came up empty in the stretch in a fifth-place finish. She fits well here of she runs back to her maiden score. She is out of a stakes placed Grand Slam mare that has dropped two other winners, top earner stakes winner Noble and a Beauty ($183,500).

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,5,6

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:

SA Race 8 The BC Juvenile G1 (2:43 PT)
#5 Classic Empire 4-1
#7 Gormley 5-1
#10 Not This Time 7-2
#9 Practical Joke 6-1

Analysis: Classic Empire bounced back from wheeling and dumping the jock two back in the Hopeful (G1) but adding blinkers and looking very professional winning the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. The Mark Casse trainee tracked the early pace and drew off in the stretch to win by three lengths. The $475,000 Keeneland purchase is a half to fellow stakes winners Anytime Magic ($198,650). The colt looks as if he still has a ton of upside.

Gormley was able to jump out to a fairly easy lead and took the field gate to wire to win the Frontrunner (G1) last out, a race that has produced the last two winners of this race. The colt is trained by John Sherriffs of Zenyatta fame who brings along runners slower than most, but this colt was smart looking maiden winner at Del Mar in his debut. The colt is out of the stakes winner Race to Urge ($182,816).

Not This Time overcame hopping at the break to finish strongly and win the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in his first go against winners. He broke his maiden two back at Ellis Park by 10 lengths. The runner up and third place finisher in that race came back to graduate in their next starts. He is out of the stakes winner Miss Macy Sue ($880,915) who has dropped two other stakes winners, top earner Liam's Map ($1.3 million) last year's Dirt Mile winner.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 5,7,9,10
TRI: 5,7 / 5,7,9,10 / 1,5,7,9,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #4 Zigarch 8-1
R3: #1 True Bet 8-1
R5: #4 Kyanite 10-1
R7: #1 Midnight Notes 8-1
R9: #4 Saratoga Citizen 8-1
R9: #5 Party Mint Star 10-1

Breeder's Cup Classic horse-by-horse, preview and picks
By Monique Vág
Covers.com

This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic race surely has “Horse of the Year” honors on the line. California Chrome looks to end this year undefeated and extend his historic lead on purse money earned. He’ll be up against quite a few familiar faces as well as some newcomers hoping to dethrone the king at Santa Anita Saturday.

1. Effinex (Jockey: Flavien Prat, odds 15-1): Loses his regular pilot Mike Smith to the likes of the flashy Arrogate. He’s well suited racing a mile and quarter and will likely attempt to work out a nice ground saving rail trip. He’s raced well on the East Coast, but makes the trip to California for only the second time in his career.

2. Frosted (Joel Rosario, 5-1): It’s almost impossible to overlook his dominant Metropolitan Handicap victory. Despite that eye-catching run, his last start was problematic to me. It seemed like he was ridden a little bit too confidently and certainly showed he was vulnerable. Racing at his best he certainly has a shot to pull off the minor upset but I haven’t seen him respond well enough to the whip in order to warrant my consideration for winning the Classic, but I do think he has the chops to place.

3. Keen Ice (Javier Castellano, 20-1): His last victory was the huge upset win over American Pharoah and Frosted in the 2015 edition of the Travers Stakes. He’s certainly been disappointing this year and hasn’t shown much of that closing kick he used that day to pull off the upset. His last start in early October was his first in almost seven months and he disappointed at a very short price. It would be a huge shock to see him competitive Saturday.

4. California Chrome (Victor Espinoza, EVEN): He’s shown the world a different kind of versatility this year by winning his last two while racing on the lead. I’m sure he’s excited to return home to California and Santa Anita - a track where he won his racing debut. He’s clearly the most accomplished, proven, and impressive of the bunch. The question becomes how short of a price at post time are you willing to take?

5. Win the Space (Gary Stevens, 30-1): He hasn’t won yet within the graded stakes ranks and the Classic doesn’t look to be any different. He looked overmatched in his last start, and two starts back he pulled up midway through and never finished the race. It is tough to make a case for this one, other than the fact that he has quite the racing experience over the Santa Anita surface.

6. Melatonin (Joe Talamo, 12-1): Exits a victory at a short price in the Santa Anita Gold Cup. He’s a perfect 4-4 over this surface and showed that he’s capable of competing against graded stakes horses. He’s been no worse than second since Joe Talamo took over the reins which adds to his appeal. He undoubtedly faces his toughest task to date against some of the nation’s best.

7. War Story (Scott Spieth, 30-1): Has been claimed six times over the past year and a bit, which usually isn’t a very good sign. He hasn’t had a steady jockey either, also never a good thing. Last time he raced against California Chrome was in the Pacific Classic where he went off at odds of 99-1. While he won’t be that price at post time, he’ll be the longest shot on the board and I’d be shocked if he finishes ahead of anyone.

8. Shaman Ghost (Jose Ortiz Jr., 20-1): Exits out of a big upset win in the Woodward stakes defeating Frosted. In that last start he tried Lasix for the first time which definitely could have proven to be a contributing factor. He certainly appreciates racing anything over a mile in distance, and I think he will attempt to work out a similar trip racing close just off the pace like he did over his last two victories.

9. Hoppertunity (John Velazquez, 15-1): Conveniently dodged the likes of Dortmund and California Chrome in his last showing and settled for a race against a much easier field in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He’s consistently shown up and given races a good effort, but he’s been second best to California Chrome a handful of times and I don’t think today is the day he turns the table.

10. Arrogate (Mike Smith, 5-2): Completely dominated the Travers Stakes setting a track record time opening up to a 13.5-length victory. He’s been very impressive since his first career start, breaking his maiden second time up and dominating Grade 1 company in his first attempt at a stakes race. He does have a lot working against him in the Breeder’s Cup Classic: the extreme outside post and facing multiple graded stakes winners. While I can’t take anything away from what he’s shown this year, I think he’s entered in just a little bit too tough against far more experienced and accomplished horses.

Picks: 1. California Chrome 2. Frosted 3. Melatonin