Breeders Cup Juvenile

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Field and Analysis
by T.O. Whenham

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile is often one of the harder races on the card to pick, but this year it's just a mess. It's not that there haven't been any eye-opening performances. There have been a ton. It's just that no horse seems capable so far of stringing two or more in a row. It seems that every time a horse moves to the front of the division we get excited, only to see him dominated by another horse in impressive fashion next time out. There is no clear stand out, and a case can be made for much of the field. The only thing we know for sure at this point is that the field is strong and the race should be great.

Sixteen horses were pre-entered in the field, so not everyone who wants a shot at the title, and the burden of being the early Kentucky Derby favorite, will get a chance. Fourteen will hit the gate on Oct. 27. The likely favorite, though not with overwhelming support, will be War Pass, an undefeated member of the Nick Zito stable. He has three wins, including his only graded victory, the Champagne Stakes, last time out. The Zito connection could be a curse - he has won five of the last 10 runnings of the Champagne, but hasn't yet won a Juvenile.

Majestic Warrior is a hard horse to deal with. He won his maiden at Saratoga to get some attention. In the Hopeful, the horse came from way, way back at the top of the stretch to run down and demolish division leaders Ready's Image and Maimonides in one of the most impressive stretch drives of the year. Before people could get too excited, though, Majestic Warrior came back with a disastrous and completely uncompetitive sixth in the Champagne. He obviously has the talent, but he's way too inexperienced for us to have a clue which of his two stakes efforts is more likely to repeat itself.

Another undefeated runner, Wicked Style, will get more than his share of attention. His most recent win was in Lane's End Breeders' Futurity on the same day as the Champagne. What stuck out on that effort was that he took the lead early and held it on a Keeneland synthetic track that typically favors closers. The wild card is that he has never run on dirt before, so we don't know how much of his success is owed to the synthetic surface. He has the pedigree for success - his grandsire Holy Bull was undefeated at two, and his sire, Macho Uno, won the juvenile in 2000.

The best West Coast hope is Dixie Chatter. He's more experienced than many of the horses in the field with four starts, including two wins. He's also won around two turns in the Norfolk at Santa Anita. Get used to hearing it this year - that race was also on synthetic, so the dirt is an unknown factor.

Those four are likely the class of the field, but there are several horses right behind them. Kodiak Kowboy is a grizzled and well-traveled veteran with six starts under his belt. He has four wins and a strong second, but never at more than seven furlongs. His ability to get the distance here is a real concern. Tale of Ekati beat Kodiak Kowboy in the Futurity last time out, and was a solid second to Majestic Warrior in the Sanford at Saratoga. He's only run three times, but he's overcome some problems in those races, and looks much more experienced than he actually is. He's also only gone seven furlongs, but he seems a bit more suited to stretching out.

Texas Fever is a potentially intriguing choice providing the price is right (and by that I mean high). He's run four times and won twice, including a two-turn win in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile. His speed figures don't measure up to the best of the class, and he's only run on synthetic, but he's improved in each start and is well bred - his mother is a half sister to Fusaichi Pagasus. NFL fans will find Texas Fever intriguing, too - his owner, Bob McNair, also owns the Houston Texans.

The rest of the field includes some intriguing runners that will be at solid prices. Pyro was second in the Champagne. Salute the Sarge, another West Coast runner, has two stakes wins, and two more seconds in stakes, including his most recent second to Dixie Chatter in the Norfolk. Slew's Tiznow, obviously a son of two-time Classic winner Tiznow, was second to Wicked Style in the Lane's End. Old Man Buck was third in that race. Shore Do and Beresford were third and fourth in the Norfolk, while Z Humor was third in the Champagne.

Beresford made the field, but is injured and has been withdrawn. Taking his place is Globalization, a talented colt who, like Street Sense last year, has only a maiden win on his record. Old man Buck and Texas Fever were both also entered in the new Juvenile Turf and may chose that race instead. That would open a spot for Overextended, a son of Monarchos who has just a maiden win, though it was around two turns.

Two weeks from now one of these horses will be a superstar and several will never be heard from again. That drama and excitement is part of what makes the Breeders' Cup so great. Now if only we could know for sure which horses fit into each category.

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